Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
cyphire
ParticipantBugs – I think you wanted to direct that to Rustico not me but I agree that distance is probably most significant (sorry Rustico). Understand that its just my opinion, I am not a sage! In fact I have very mixed feelings.
Also LateSummer2008 thanks for the clarification – I will take it under advisement.
Rustico (and all) check this out! Just got a somewhat proof that my getting out of dodge was a good move. I’ve written before that my house in the north county (2 acres – 4800ish feet) was sold in Dec 2006. By then the market was dead (according to the local realtor and I believe them). I didn’t even know how bad things were in the fall of 2006 (only 6 months ago or so) but they were dead. Notice you never really heard anything about that in the media.
Anyway I put my house up at a very excellent price (what I thought) 2,100,000 – 2,300,000. I sold it for 2,050,000 and many people thought I was crazy – I should have held out for more. Anyway, while the breaking even (roughly) as I bought for 2M was ok with me, I wasn’t prepared to keep doing the long distance drive to La Jolla for my child’s school.
There is now a house on the market same as mine but with a sports court and pool house (I didn’t have either) and a not as good view. What pisses me off (not for them – I hope they can sell they are awesome people) – is that the house has been on the market for 6 months and it keeps coming up as new on market (3 times). The MLS lets you change the ‘days on market’ which is complete crap. Now it is 2 days on market which isn’t true (maybe they changed brokers but I don’t think so and shouldnt matter). This is fraud. A home purchase is your most important decision and the data availible in the market is crap.
Anyway the houses are not custom, they are top level production (read: tract homes!) – but they actually were very, very nice. The quality of the finishes, etc. were very good (comparatively to lets say Carmel valley houses which are crap).
So anyway (too much coffee) This house started at 2.3-2.5M, then to 2.1-2.3M, now its at 1.9M-2.2M. Wow. If an offer comes in at 1.8+ they will probably take it (I don’t know for a fact but I’m sure that in today’s market they wouldn’t have a value range if they weren’t expecting to get the bottom of it.
What is freaking me out is that I called this market in our neighborhood. I thought that the 2.05M was a fair but low price. The price my neighbors got 1 year before was 2,550,000 ( 15% bigger and better view), I had competition because the exact house as mine (with a better yard, less view) was priced 200K more than mine and had gone on the market 3 months before ours. They finally sold 3 months after us for 2,100,000. To think that the other house currently on the market might sell for 1.9M or so means that prices are falling very, very fast. There are NO serious buyers our there. We had 3 showings in 10 weeks – which is amazingly bad considering how well priced the house was. Now this might not be indicitive of all markets, from my perspective getting out at any reasonable price was worth it.
So….
2005 (late) 2.50M
2006 (late) 2.05M
2007 (early) 2.10M
2007 (????) 1.9M-2.2M value range on market over 6 months and what will it finally sell for?ParticipantI agree – dumbed down. Look at our politics – its just about getting elected and 30 second sound bites. Where are the issues – do you ever see them on the news? No – you see the 400$ haircut stories and the sex scandals. The media sucks and the people don’t care. This country has been too dumb, fat, and lazy for way to long. We are having a war and the average citizen doesn’t even notice or be affected. We will be a third (second) tier/world country very, very quickly. And as most of our society is about selling out – the rich will get way richer and everyone else will be in pain. Think the worst of the 70’s with energy crisis’s, unemployment, crime, and ultra high inflation / interest rates ON STEROIDS!
ParticipantI agree – dumbed down. Look at our politics – its just about getting elected and 30 second sound bites. Where are the issues – do you ever see them on the news? No – you see the 400$ haircut stories and the sex scandals. The media sucks and the people don’t care. This country has been too dumb, fat, and lazy for way to long. We are having a war and the average citizen doesn’t even notice or be affected. We will be a third (second) tier/world country very, very quickly. And as most of our society is about selling out – the rich will get way richer and everyone else will be in pain. Think the worst of the 70’s with energy crisis’s, unemployment, crime, and ultra high inflation / interest rates ON STEROIDS!
ParticipantVery well said Rustico. I actually don’t want my kids mixing with ‘the right people’ – I actually am suspect of wealthy screwed up kids. Some are good, some are morally bankrupt like their parents. I’m trying to raise good kids and still try to keep their values intact (it’s hard in LJ – which is why I was considering moving to Carmel Valley.)
Also from a public school perspective – my son is in public school right now because we moved – and while he is a bit bored and some of the kids act up, it’s a real world situation and he’s been a little too protected. The school here in LJ is actually very nice and the kids are just normal kids (most of them). It’s good for him and hopefully he gets into the private school for 7-12th for the reasons its a better education, definetely not better people!
I went to school in a middle class public school and it was both good and bad. Back then there were a lot of bullies, the teachers locked themselves in the teacher’s lounge and smoked and we had to look out for ourselves. It’s way better now – kids are taught tolerance, kindness, and bullying isn’t tolerated.
My big problem with the public school system is that it is mediocre. It doesn’t have to be. Using the money more effectively, having teachers which are far more empowered, and removing the tenure idea and make teachers hit standards of excellence (like most well run companies) – and removing the teachers unions. Teaching should be like any job and it should be pay for performance. I think as a society we should be having our best and brightest be the teachers! A great teacher can take kids and mold them – give them some of what many kids don’t get at home – an example.
Anyway thats my rant. I would love to see more quality in the public schools. If the public schools were 80% as good as the private schools – the private schools would disappear!
ParticipantVery well said Rustico. I actually don’t want my kids mixing with ‘the right people’ – I actually am suspect of wealthy screwed up kids. Some are good, some are morally bankrupt like their parents. I’m trying to raise good kids and still try to keep their values intact (it’s hard in LJ – which is why I was considering moving to Carmel Valley.)
Also from a public school perspective – my son is in public school right now because we moved – and while he is a bit bored and some of the kids act up, it’s a real world situation and he’s been a little too protected. The school here in LJ is actually very nice and the kids are just normal kids (most of them). It’s good for him and hopefully he gets into the private school for 7-12th for the reasons its a better education, definetely not better people!
I went to school in a middle class public school and it was both good and bad. Back then there were a lot of bullies, the teachers locked themselves in the teacher’s lounge and smoked and we had to look out for ourselves. It’s way better now – kids are taught tolerance, kindness, and bullying isn’t tolerated.
My big problem with the public school system is that it is mediocre. It doesn’t have to be. Using the money more effectively, having teachers which are far more empowered, and removing the tenure idea and make teachers hit standards of excellence (like most well run companies) – and removing the teachers unions. Teaching should be like any job and it should be pay for performance. I think as a society we should be having our best and brightest be the teachers! A great teacher can take kids and mold them – give them some of what many kids don’t get at home – an example.
Anyway thats my rant. I would love to see more quality in the public schools. If the public schools were 80% as good as the private schools – the private schools would disappear!
ParticipantThanks LS… I guess time will tell whether we are right or wrong! I have a friend in the Agoura/Calabasas/across the canyon from Malibu area who has had his house on the market for a long, long time (6-8 months?). He has it priced at 2004-5 prices and has only dropped it in price by 50K. He has a reverse amort. loan, but really wants to get 200-300K out of the house.
He has had one serious offer but they dropped out. I don’t see him selling his house. If he had dropped it 100K after a few weeks (or 150K), he might have sold 6 months ago and still pocketed 200K and have not paid 6 month of interest / taxes / real estate showings!
Unlike him, I took the opinion that I would rather sell at 2004 prices and get out than the 2005 price which was the top of the market. I have put my money where my mouth is (by selling in Dec 2006). It was an easier decision for me than most because the move made our commute easier. And I’m on the sidelines in the stock market also (mostly).
I agree with you. I think that the bubble has been letting air out (it can’t burst because people can’t sell their houses like stocks and they also need somewhere to live), but the air will be deflating very, very fast this summer. I think that late summer 07 will very, very bad and the holidays will be far worse (a dead time anyway)….
I would rather pay top dollar for an awesome rental, than double that on a mortgage right now!
ParticipantThanks LS… I guess time will tell whether we are right or wrong! I have a friend in the Agoura/Calabasas/across the canyon from Malibu area who has had his house on the market for a long, long time (6-8 months?). He has it priced at 2004-5 prices and has only dropped it in price by 50K. He has a reverse amort. loan, but really wants to get 200-300K out of the house.
He has had one serious offer but they dropped out. I don’t see him selling his house. If he had dropped it 100K after a few weeks (or 150K), he might have sold 6 months ago and still pocketed 200K and have not paid 6 month of interest / taxes / real estate showings!
Unlike him, I took the opinion that I would rather sell at 2004 prices and get out than the 2005 price which was the top of the market. I have put my money where my mouth is (by selling in Dec 2006). It was an easier decision for me than most because the move made our commute easier. And I’m on the sidelines in the stock market also (mostly).
I agree with you. I think that the bubble has been letting air out (it can’t burst because people can’t sell their houses like stocks and they also need somewhere to live), but the air will be deflating very, very fast this summer. I think that late summer 07 will very, very bad and the holidays will be far worse (a dead time anyway)….
I would rather pay top dollar for an awesome rental, than double that on a mortgage right now!
ParticipantHey forgot to mention… Great video! And I grew up in Long Island so it really hits home.
ParticipantHey forgot to mention… Great video! And I grew up in Long Island so it really hits home.
ParticipantDamn PerryChase – you sound like me… Trying to fix the worlds problems all by yourself!
I wish that our society would head in another direction… In lots of ways… I’m starting to feel nostalgic for the good old days of the 70’s when CEOs only made $200K and any smart kid could get into a great university.
Maybe, just maybe, if we throw out the current administration and then get the Democratic party to actually act like Democrats things might turn around… But then again.. Nah – its all going to hell (but it’s ok, the environment won’t last too long either!)
Hmmm…. Maybe I’m in a bad mood!
ParticipantDamn PerryChase – you sound like me… Trying to fix the worlds problems all by yourself!
I wish that our society would head in another direction… In lots of ways… I’m starting to feel nostalgic for the good old days of the 70’s when CEOs only made $200K and any smart kid could get into a great university.
Maybe, just maybe, if we throw out the current administration and then get the Democratic party to actually act like Democrats things might turn around… But then again.. Nah – its all going to hell (but it’s ok, the environment won’t last too long either!)
Hmmm…. Maybe I’m in a bad mood!
ParticipantYes – my understanding is that there are about 4 thousand Brit’s who have gone completely upside-down on Florida condos. Even at the crazy prices when translated into Pounds they are a cheap bargain compared to London. Unfortunately they way over paid, pre-bought and are now in financial trouble (the vast majority).
ParticipantYes – my understanding is that there are about 4 thousand Brit’s who have gone completely upside-down on Florida condos. Even at the crazy prices when translated into Pounds they are a cheap bargain compared to London. Unfortunately they way over paid, pre-bought and are now in financial trouble (the vast majority).
ParticipantHey maybe the government could step in and buy those 69Palms homes and let the service people have / rent them. I’m against staying in Iraq and despise the current administration – but I think that the military gets the short end of the stick and it’s a way to have some synergy going.
(I’m not saying pay the developers full price or bail them out – just get some of the inventory off the market and help out the troops.)
-
AuthorPosts