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cyphire
ParticipantAlso the person with cash can invest it in other currencies. I haven’t done this yet but will be researching it. I am much more comfortable with the responses to the thread so far than the original premise. Some of the arguments hold up – but not in the face of decreasing values. While mortgage rates are low today – they are rising and isn’t the current situation (despite what the government states) a stagflation? Where wages don’t go up but true inflation is rising? Add college tuition and the free spending habits to the list above. We spend more than we ever did as a nation and it’s tough to tell your kids / wife / family that you have to ‘economize’. We are like crack addicts who have become addicted by the easy credit of the last decade. Many folks won’t be able to jump off the cycle in time.
The economy is going to be wacked because the safety net is mostly gone (other than being propped up by China, Japan)… The ball is in their court because the US consumer has negative savings, true inflation, and a weakening and imaginary equity position in housing.
ParticipantAlso the person with cash can invest it in other currencies. I haven’t done this yet but will be researching it. I am much more comfortable with the responses to the thread so far than the original premise. Some of the arguments hold up – but not in the face of decreasing values. While mortgage rates are low today – they are rising and isn’t the current situation (despite what the government states) a stagflation? Where wages don’t go up but true inflation is rising? Add college tuition and the free spending habits to the list above. We spend more than we ever did as a nation and it’s tough to tell your kids / wife / family that you have to ‘economize’. We are like crack addicts who have become addicted by the easy credit of the last decade. Many folks won’t be able to jump off the cycle in time.
The economy is going to be wacked because the safety net is mostly gone (other than being propped up by China, Japan)… The ball is in their court because the US consumer has negative savings, true inflation, and a weakening and imaginary equity position in housing.
ParticipantThanks Rustico appreciate the kind words!
ParticipantThanks Rustico appreciate the kind words!
ParticipantAhhh jg.. Until now I thought you had your head together!!!
What do you call religion? The uber-drug!
My kids have awesome morals and a highly developed social conscious… We do all that without outsourcing to a fantasy. This isn’t the thread for it but in my opinion religion doesn’t seem to do anything positive to a kids development other than fill their heads with lies and teaches prejudice.
Bishops is an awesome school… The children who attend are Episcopalians, Catholics, Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Budhists and even Athiests!
Each to his own I guess – but it’s sad to keep hearing the same tired platitude from people that ‘religion = morality’. Your idea that religion in school keeps drugs out is quite a bold concept and a statement made with blinders on. Kids get their values from their parents and environment. The more religious the environment – the less openness. So religion is sometimes the problem, it sure isn’t a solution.
Places like Francis Parker, LJCDS, and even Bishop’s have drug problems. Rich kids with indifferent parents will always get the best drugs. Religious school or secular. Poke around and take off the blinders – you might get an epiphany!
ParticipantAhhh jg.. Until now I thought you had your head together!!!
What do you call religion? The uber-drug!
My kids have awesome morals and a highly developed social conscious… We do all that without outsourcing to a fantasy. This isn’t the thread for it but in my opinion religion doesn’t seem to do anything positive to a kids development other than fill their heads with lies and teaches prejudice.
Bishops is an awesome school… The children who attend are Episcopalians, Catholics, Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Budhists and even Athiests!
Each to his own I guess – but it’s sad to keep hearing the same tired platitude from people that ‘religion = morality’. Your idea that religion in school keeps drugs out is quite a bold concept and a statement made with blinders on. Kids get their values from their parents and environment. The more religious the environment – the less openness. So religion is sometimes the problem, it sure isn’t a solution.
Places like Francis Parker, LJCDS, and even Bishop’s have drug problems. Rich kids with indifferent parents will always get the best drugs. Religious school or secular. Poke around and take off the blinders – you might get an epiphany!
ParticipantIn perusing the MLS I noticed 8 new listings on Friday alone. Thats a lot.
gOne struck my fancy. Talk about denial – the listing is with Prudential and the house is up on value range from 1.6M to 1.8M… 1.8 MILLON!!!! Zillow has it pegged from 995-1.017M. It is 3,400 feet and…. get this…. wait for it….. It backs up to a main road (Carmel Mountain Road). Are people nuts???? It is jammed between 6 other houses, on a main road, etc. I would love to see what this one actually sells for.
ParticipantIn perusing the MLS I noticed 8 new listings on Friday alone. Thats a lot.
gOne struck my fancy. Talk about denial – the listing is with Prudential and the house is up on value range from 1.6M to 1.8M… 1.8 MILLON!!!! Zillow has it pegged from 995-1.017M. It is 3,400 feet and…. get this…. wait for it….. It backs up to a main road (Carmel Mountain Road). Are people nuts???? It is jammed between 6 other houses, on a main road, etc. I would love to see what this one actually sells for.
ParticipantI think we all have been spoiled by double digit increases. A house is a place to keep your stuff and make your wife and kids happy! When the market returns to normalcy, I would be happy to buy something after the steam gets let out, and would be happy if the house goes up with inflation.
Rustico – I think that you have your priorities really straight. My kids went from Long Island to NYC to Carmel Valley to Olivenhain to La Jolla and my oldest is only 13.
(we also had 2 intermediate moves for 3-5 months at a time while we rebuilt the houses we bought.I think that we have been somewhat gypsies but it’s been fun! Only problem is that I think it has affected the kids somewhat. They have a great life but I’m not sure they are getting the consistency I had growing up. There were even rumors that I was in the witness protection program (unfounded – but don’t tell anyone about me – we don’t like to talk about the program.
Anyway – We are renting a new place in LJ tomorrow (signing the lease), hopefully for 2 years. After that, who knows? Maybe we will buy a place. It’s hard to find a great rental – but I think even if I have to pay through the nose it’s still a better deal than buying in this market.
ParticipantI think we all have been spoiled by double digit increases. A house is a place to keep your stuff and make your wife and kids happy! When the market returns to normalcy, I would be happy to buy something after the steam gets let out, and would be happy if the house goes up with inflation.
Rustico – I think that you have your priorities really straight. My kids went from Long Island to NYC to Carmel Valley to Olivenhain to La Jolla and my oldest is only 13.
(we also had 2 intermediate moves for 3-5 months at a time while we rebuilt the houses we bought.I think that we have been somewhat gypsies but it’s been fun! Only problem is that I think it has affected the kids somewhat. They have a great life but I’m not sure they are getting the consistency I had growing up. There were even rumors that I was in the witness protection program (unfounded – but don’t tell anyone about me – we don’t like to talk about the program.
Anyway – We are renting a new place in LJ tomorrow (signing the lease), hopefully for 2 years. After that, who knows? Maybe we will buy a place. It’s hard to find a great rental – but I think even if I have to pay through the nose it’s still a better deal than buying in this market.
ParticipantIf Rustico is happy to be there for the next 10-20 years I agree – he is a god and made the right decision. If he’s like me and is spoiled and gets bored being somewhere too long then he should buy a boat! I’m very impressed by Bugs, Rustico, and LateSummer2008 on these blogs – I guess i’m going overboard blogging – but this is my first time every blogging and it’s fun!
ParticipantIf Rustico is happy to be there for the next 10-20 years I agree – he is a god and made the right decision. If he’s like me and is spoiled and gets bored being somewhere too long then he should buy a boat! I’m very impressed by Bugs, Rustico, and LateSummer2008 on these blogs – I guess i’m going overboard blogging – but this is my first time every blogging and it’s fun!
ParticipantI only somewhat agree with you Bugs…
I know this sounds crazy but I think to some extent the house size is a function of smaller lots and economics.
Look at Carmel Valley (where we first lived)…
Each new year and new development creates bigger houses on smaller lots. The developers probably don’t spend significantly more money building bigger houses (I may be wrong about this), but they put bigger and bigger houses on smaller and smaller lots. It’s the value of the real estate which they are selling, the larger house is just there to sell the ‘home’. I think this might be why they maximize the size.
Example: We bought in CV and had a 13K lot (some hill) with a 3,500 house. The house was built in 1991 and we bought it in 2000 (when we moved from NYC). My sister bought a 4,800 house on a 6,000 lot!
The developers want to maximize the number of houses and by putting the biggest house on them they can maximize profits. When you have kids, you want to have the biggest house you can comfortably afford.
McMansions exist because we are changing the skew of money in this country. Real wages have gone down for regular people. The top few percent of the earners have had their earnings go up dramatically. So… The easing of credit has let people overextend into houses they can’t afford – but the McMansions are probably bye and large bought by people who are less affected (doesn’t mean not affected!) As a side note – look at CEO’s (as a group)… These guys made 200-300K in the 70’s now make Millions. Each executive level under them went up by a proportionally skewed amount. All while regular workers made inflation raises (but of course with outmoded definitions of inflation as gas, healthcare, mortgages, etc aren’t counted in the index!!!), and Minimum wage (at the bottom) got 0!!!
And to add some reality to the numbers from this post:
My costs (roughly) for having a 4,800 square foot house with pool was (monthly):
McMaintenance & McEnergy:
$2,500
McFinancing.
$6,875 int only on 1.5 Million
would be 8,200 in todays interest rates
McTaxes.
$2,000
McInvestment.
Broke even after 2 years bought just below the top, sold just after the top. Was it worth it? Yes but got lucky.
McResale.
Brutally hard to sell an amazing house. 2 acres of trees and lawns, huge pool w/spa and waterfall, tons of rosebushes, fruit trees, jogging path, ocean view (small), playhouse, privacy. Was so lucky to get out – will get much, much worse (as witnessed by how long my neighbor has been on the market). I can only imagine how bad it will get in the outlands where the commutes to towns are further.I think that as long as you are happy in a place, and can afford it, and plan on staying for a long time – It so doesn’t matter what you pay for a house. That being said… No one wants to be a chump and buy at the top of a market. It’s better to wait a couple of years and save a couple, a few, a handful of hundred thousands. As I didn’t like the long driving, it was a no brainer to move. If I would have been happy with the driving, I would have been happy to stay there until I was a little old man!
ParticipantI only somewhat agree with you Bugs…
I know this sounds crazy but I think to some extent the house size is a function of smaller lots and economics.
Look at Carmel Valley (where we first lived)…
Each new year and new development creates bigger houses on smaller lots. The developers probably don’t spend significantly more money building bigger houses (I may be wrong about this), but they put bigger and bigger houses on smaller and smaller lots. It’s the value of the real estate which they are selling, the larger house is just there to sell the ‘home’. I think this might be why they maximize the size.
Example: We bought in CV and had a 13K lot (some hill) with a 3,500 house. The house was built in 1991 and we bought it in 2000 (when we moved from NYC). My sister bought a 4,800 house on a 6,000 lot!
The developers want to maximize the number of houses and by putting the biggest house on them they can maximize profits. When you have kids, you want to have the biggest house you can comfortably afford.
McMansions exist because we are changing the skew of money in this country. Real wages have gone down for regular people. The top few percent of the earners have had their earnings go up dramatically. So… The easing of credit has let people overextend into houses they can’t afford – but the McMansions are probably bye and large bought by people who are less affected (doesn’t mean not affected!) As a side note – look at CEO’s (as a group)… These guys made 200-300K in the 70’s now make Millions. Each executive level under them went up by a proportionally skewed amount. All while regular workers made inflation raises (but of course with outmoded definitions of inflation as gas, healthcare, mortgages, etc aren’t counted in the index!!!), and Minimum wage (at the bottom) got 0!!!
And to add some reality to the numbers from this post:
My costs (roughly) for having a 4,800 square foot house with pool was (monthly):
McMaintenance & McEnergy:
$2,500
McFinancing.
$6,875 int only on 1.5 Million
would be 8,200 in todays interest rates
McTaxes.
$2,000
McInvestment.
Broke even after 2 years bought just below the top, sold just after the top. Was it worth it? Yes but got lucky.
McResale.
Brutally hard to sell an amazing house. 2 acres of trees and lawns, huge pool w/spa and waterfall, tons of rosebushes, fruit trees, jogging path, ocean view (small), playhouse, privacy. Was so lucky to get out – will get much, much worse (as witnessed by how long my neighbor has been on the market). I can only imagine how bad it will get in the outlands where the commutes to towns are further.I think that as long as you are happy in a place, and can afford it, and plan on staying for a long time – It so doesn’t matter what you pay for a house. That being said… No one wants to be a chump and buy at the top of a market. It’s better to wait a couple of years and save a couple, a few, a handful of hundred thousands. As I didn’t like the long driving, it was a no brainer to move. If I would have been happy with the driving, I would have been happy to stay there until I was a little old man!
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