[ctr70]

TG,

I big worry form me buying a condo would be the future or current ability of buyers to get loans to buy in the condo project. Many condo project prices in San Diego are getting depressed big time b/c you literally can not get financing on then. The ONLY choice buyers have is to pay cash. What do you think cash only buyers in your project will do the value of your condo?

The problem is when condo’s go below 51% owner occupancy (lots of rentals) or have other problems, and FHA, VA or conventional lenders will literally NOT lend on them period. In Florida there are a lot of buildings that are cash only right now and prices are plummeting.

These are things outside of your control as a condo owner, and they would scare me.

[ctr70]

TG,

I big worry form me buying a condo would be the future or current ability of buyers to get loans to buy in the condo project. Many condo project prices in San Diego are getting depressed big time b/c you literally can not get financing on then. The ONLY choice buyers have is to pay cash. What do you think cash only buyers in your project will do the value of your condo?

The problem is when condo’s go below 51% owner occupancy (lots of rentals) or have other problems, and FHA, VA or conventional lenders will literally NOT lend on them period. In Florida there are a lot of buildings that are cash only right now and prices are plummeting.

These are things outside of your control as a condo owner, and they would scare me.

[ctr70]

Temecualguy…I think you have some very good points about Temecula and I will have to take a look up there. But can you really land a $135k 4/2 1,364sf nice house up there right now? My guess that is the “bait” price and it gets bid up more towards $200k. That’s a big difference between $80k for the same house in Vegas or Phoenix that rents for $1,100. Also, does that Temecula house have Mello Roos? That would be a cash flow killer.

On the areas another poster mentioned, unless you have a gigantic down payment, no way can you make the numbers even close to work on a SFR in Clairemont Mesa, Kearny Mesa, Mira Mesa or La Mesa. Maybe at the very bottom of the La Mesa market where it gets sketch near hwy 94…but even then it’s tough.

It seems to me for SFR rentals in SD County you have to go into the low end of Nat City, Spring Valley, Paradise Hills, Encanto, Lemon Grove, Old Chula, Escondido, maybe parts of Oceanside/Vista… to have a chance. If you’re more brave, City Hieghts and Logan Heights. And even then you get absolute bottom of the barrel junk for $175k.

[ctr70]

Temecualguy…I think you have some very good points about Temecula and I will have to take a look up there. But can you really land a $135k 4/2 1,364sf nice house up there right now? My guess that is the “bait” price and it gets bid up more towards $200k. That’s a big difference between $80k for the same house in Vegas or Phoenix that rents for $1,100. Also, does that Temecula house have Mello Roos? That would be a cash flow killer.

On the areas another poster mentioned, unless you have a gigantic down payment, no way can you make the numbers even close to work on a SFR in Clairemont Mesa, Kearny Mesa, Mira Mesa or La Mesa. Maybe at the very bottom of the La Mesa market where it gets sketch near hwy 94…but even then it’s tough.

It seems to me for SFR rentals in SD County you have to go into the low end of Nat City, Spring Valley, Paradise Hills, Encanto, Lemon Grove, Old Chula, Escondido, maybe parts of Oceanside/Vista… to have a chance. If you’re more brave, City Hieghts and Logan Heights. And even then you get absolute bottom of the barrel junk for $175k.

[ctr70]

Temecualguy…I think you have some very good points about Temecula and I will have to take a look up there. But can you really land a $135k 4/2 1,364sf nice house up there right now? My guess that is the “bait” price and it gets bid up more towards $200k. That’s a big difference between $80k for the same house in Vegas or Phoenix that rents for $1,100. Also, does that Temecula house have Mello Roos? That would be a cash flow killer.

On the areas another poster mentioned, unless you have a gigantic down payment, no way can you make the numbers even close to work on a SFR in Clairemont Mesa, Kearny Mesa, Mira Mesa or La Mesa. Maybe at the very bottom of the La Mesa market where it gets sketch near hwy 94…but even then it’s tough.

It seems to me for SFR rentals in SD County you have to go into the low end of Nat City, Spring Valley, Paradise Hills, Encanto, Lemon Grove, Old Chula, Escondido, maybe parts of Oceanside/Vista… to have a chance. If you’re more brave, City Hieghts and Logan Heights. And even then you get absolute bottom of the barrel junk for $175k.

[ctr70]

Temecualguy…I think you have some very good points about Temecula and I will have to take a look up there. But can you really land a $135k 4/2 1,364sf nice house up there right now? My guess that is the “bait” price and it gets bid up more towards $200k. That’s a big difference between $80k for the same house in Vegas or Phoenix that rents for $1,100. Also, does that Temecula house have Mello Roos? That would be a cash flow killer.

On the areas another poster mentioned, unless you have a gigantic down payment, no way can you make the numbers even close to work on a SFR in Clairemont Mesa, Kearny Mesa, Mira Mesa or La Mesa. Maybe at the very bottom of the La Mesa market where it gets sketch near hwy 94…but even then it’s tough.

It seems to me for SFR rentals in SD County you have to go into the low end of Nat City, Spring Valley, Paradise Hills, Encanto, Lemon Grove, Old Chula, Escondido, maybe parts of Oceanside/Vista… to have a chance. If you’re more brave, City Hieghts and Logan Heights. And even then you get absolute bottom of the barrel junk for $175k.

[ctr70]

Temecualguy…I think you have some very good points about Temecula and I will have to take a look up there. But can you really land a $135k 4/2 1,364sf nice house up there right now? My guess that is the “bait” price and it gets bid up more towards $200k. That’s a big difference between $80k for the same house in Vegas or Phoenix that rents for $1,100. Also, does that Temecula house have Mello Roos? That would be a cash flow killer.

On the areas another poster mentioned, unless you have a gigantic down payment, no way can you make the numbers even close to work on a SFR in Clairemont Mesa, Kearny Mesa, Mira Mesa or La Mesa. Maybe at the very bottom of the La Mesa market where it gets sketch near hwy 94…but even then it’s tough.

It seems to me for SFR rentals in SD County you have to go into the low end of Nat City, Spring Valley, Paradise Hills, Encanto, Lemon Grove, Old Chula, Escondido, maybe parts of Oceanside/Vista… to have a chance. If you’re more brave, City Hieghts and Logan Heights. And even then you get absolute bottom of the barrel junk for $175k.

[ctr70]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]bread-and-butter Central San Diego rental areas:

Clairemont Mesa
Kearny Mesa
Mira Mesa
La Mesa

My rule of thumb is to look at the areas with “Mesa” in their name, and avoid places with the word “Barrio” or “Heights”)[/quote]

The very lowest end of those sfr markets you mention is $350k, how do you make that cash flow? And that $350k house probably needes $50k of work. I do not see that logic at all. $350k house, $2,000 rent? That is a total gamble on apprecation unless you put like 50% down.

[ctr70]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]bread-and-butter Central San Diego rental areas:

Clairemont Mesa
Kearny Mesa
Mira Mesa
La Mesa

My rule of thumb is to look at the areas with “Mesa” in their name, and avoid places with the word “Barrio” or “Heights”)[/quote]

The very lowest end of those sfr markets you mention is $350k, how do you make that cash flow? And that $350k house probably needes $50k of work. I do not see that logic at all. $350k house, $2,000 rent? That is a total gamble on apprecation unless you put like 50% down.

[ctr70]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]bread-and-butter Central San Diego rental areas:

Clairemont Mesa
Kearny Mesa
Mira Mesa
La Mesa

My rule of thumb is to look at the areas with “Mesa” in their name, and avoid places with the word “Barrio” or “Heights”)[/quote]

The very lowest end of those sfr markets you mention is $350k, how do you make that cash flow? And that $350k house probably needes $50k of work. I do not see that logic at all. $350k house, $2,000 rent? That is a total gamble on apprecation unless you put like 50% down.

[ctr70]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]bread-and-butter Central San Diego rental areas:

Clairemont Mesa
Kearny Mesa
Mira Mesa
La Mesa

My rule of thumb is to look at the areas with “Mesa” in their name, and avoid places with the word “Barrio” or “Heights”)[/quote]

The very lowest end of those sfr markets you mention is $350k, how do you make that cash flow? And that $350k house probably needes $50k of work. I do not see that logic at all. $350k house, $2,000 rent? That is a total gamble on apprecation unless you put like 50% down.

[ctr70]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]bread-and-butter Central San Diego rental areas:

Clairemont Mesa
Kearny Mesa
Mira Mesa
La Mesa

My rule of thumb is to look at the areas with “Mesa” in their name, and avoid places with the word “Barrio” or “Heights”)[/quote]

The very lowest end of those sfr markets you mention is $350k, how do you make that cash flow? And that $350k house probably needes $50k of work. I do not see that logic at all. $350k house, $2,000 rent? That is a total gamble on apprecation unless you put like 50% down.

[ctr70]

Thanks for the input Temeculaguy and Econprof. I have to study the rental market/vacancies in the parts of the Inland Empire and Vegas that I’m looking at. I’m not familar with the loss of the low end renters you are talking about. What about <$100k SFR's in Moreno Valley? Las Vegas right now you can buy for less than it costs to build houses. $80k for a newer blt sfr. Yes it seems to be a 100% tourist reliant area and that's a worry. But I think for the next 10-20-30+ years Las Vegas and Phoenix will continue to get a outflow of people priced out of California & baby boomers retiring from cold states. The same dynamics will happen again. San Diego for example, even after the bust, is STILL not affordable. If you are below $400k for a sfr you are STILL in a dumpy neighborhood with below average schools. Forget about the Bay Area, OC or LA. That will always drive families to look to neighboring states and to look at the inland empire. Phoenix is another area you can buy rental houses for less than it costs to build. For 1/2 or 1/3 the price they were selling at the peak. Both Phoenix and LV are much more business friendly than CA. I've been hearing for 20 years how the anti business climate and taxes of of CA is going to drive out all the people and businesses out. It still hasn't happend. The state has too much going for it with climate, scenery, closest U.S. proximity to the growing Asian powers, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, etc... The lower end SFR prices of San Diego have also stabilized if not risen in the past 12 mos. But the numbers are just not good anywhere in SD for anything. You are buying with the "hope" of future appreciation, which to me is a debatable reason to buy.

[ctr70]

Thanks for the input Temeculaguy and Econprof. I have to study the rental market/vacancies in the parts of the Inland Empire and Vegas that I’m looking at. I’m not familar with the loss of the low end renters you are talking about. What about <$100k SFR's in Moreno Valley? Las Vegas right now you can buy for less than it costs to build houses. $80k for a newer blt sfr. Yes it seems to be a 100% tourist reliant area and that's a worry. But I think for the next 10-20-30+ years Las Vegas and Phoenix will continue to get a outflow of people priced out of California & baby boomers retiring from cold states. The same dynamics will happen again. San Diego for example, even after the bust, is STILL not affordable. If you are below $400k for a sfr you are STILL in a dumpy neighborhood with below average schools. Forget about the Bay Area, OC or LA. That will always drive families to look to neighboring states and to look at the inland empire. Phoenix is another area you can buy rental houses for less than it costs to build. For 1/2 or 1/3 the price they were selling at the peak. Both Phoenix and LV are much more business friendly than CA. I've been hearing for 20 years how the anti business climate and taxes of of CA is going to drive out all the people and businesses out. It still hasn't happend. The state has too much going for it with climate, scenery, closest U.S. proximity to the growing Asian powers, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, etc... The lower end SFR prices of San Diego have also stabilized if not risen in the past 12 mos. But the numbers are just not good anywhere in SD for anything. You are buying with the "hope" of future appreciation, which to me is a debatable reason to buy.

[ctr70]

Thanks for the input Temeculaguy and Econprof. I have to study the rental market/vacancies in the parts of the Inland Empire and Vegas that I’m looking at. I’m not familar with the loss of the low end renters you are talking about. What about <$100k SFR's in Moreno Valley? Las Vegas right now you can buy for less than it costs to build houses. $80k for a newer blt sfr. Yes it seems to be a 100% tourist reliant area and that's a worry. But I think for the next 10-20-30+ years Las Vegas and Phoenix will continue to get a outflow of people priced out of California & baby boomers retiring from cold states. The same dynamics will happen again. San Diego for example, even after the bust, is STILL not affordable. If you are below $400k for a sfr you are STILL in a dumpy neighborhood with below average schools. Forget about the Bay Area, OC or LA. That will always drive families to look to neighboring states and to look at the inland empire. Phoenix is another area you can buy rental houses for less than it costs to build. For 1/2 or 1/3 the price they were selling at the peak. Both Phoenix and LV are much more business friendly than CA. I've been hearing for 20 years how the anti business climate and taxes of of CA is going to drive out all the people and businesses out. It still hasn't happend. The state has too much going for it with climate, scenery, closest U.S. proximity to the growing Asian powers, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, etc... The lower end SFR prices of San Diego have also stabilized if not risen in the past 12 mos. But the numbers are just not good anywhere in SD for anything. You are buying with the "hope" of future appreciation, which to me is a debatable reason to buy.

[Author]

Posts