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CricketOnTheHearth
ParticipantIt’s my impression that illegals are first hired/first fired, and also that many of them provide “optional” services– gardening, restaurant bussing, etc. As legal citizens pull in their spending horns due to the economy, these spending items might be the first to go.
Some anecdotes:
1) A commentor on another econ blog, some number of months ago, said that the “brown” people (whether green card or illegal) working construction were the first to be let go. She had talked to a Guatemalan guy who was planning to go back to Central America to look for work there, because work had dried up here. This was before we saw the dip in construction employment numbers here in SD/on Rich’s charts. My take was that the “shadow employees” were let go first, hiding the impact on overall construction employment till later in the housing downturn.
2) A headline in the U-T, a couple of months ago, said that Tijuana border crossing traffic was way down.
[/anecdotes]
What I hate is when people on both sides of the argument lump “immigration” and “illegal immigration” together and then everybody gets into a hairball about it. I have no problem with people who immigrate legally or get their green card, it’s the fence-jumpers who get on my nerves.
I have to wonder how much the price of housing here in SD is due to illegals cramming 10 and 15 to a house and paying whatever the landlord demands because hey, it’s only a couple hundred each for them.
It’s clear that San Diego housing is overcrowded. Go down any street in Mira Mesa or Clairemont and see how many cars are parked along the curb by people doubling and tripling up in their houses.
ParticipantIt’s my impression that illegals are first hired/first fired, and also that many of them provide “optional” services– gardening, restaurant bussing, etc. As legal citizens pull in their spending horns due to the economy, these spending items might be the first to go.
Some anecdotes:
1) A commentor on another econ blog, some number of months ago, said that the “brown” people (whether green card or illegal) working construction were the first to be let go. She had talked to a Guatemalan guy who was planning to go back to Central America to look for work there, because work had dried up here. This was before we saw the dip in construction employment numbers here in SD/on Rich’s charts. My take was that the “shadow employees” were let go first, hiding the impact on overall construction employment till later in the housing downturn.
2) A headline in the U-T, a couple of months ago, said that Tijuana border crossing traffic was way down.
[/anecdotes]
What I hate is when people on both sides of the argument lump “immigration” and “illegal immigration” together and then everybody gets into a hairball about it. I have no problem with people who immigrate legally or get their green card, it’s the fence-jumpers who get on my nerves.
I have to wonder how much the price of housing here in SD is due to illegals cramming 10 and 15 to a house and paying whatever the landlord demands because hey, it’s only a couple hundred each for them.
It’s clear that San Diego housing is overcrowded. Go down any street in Mira Mesa or Clairemont and see how many cars are parked along the curb by people doubling and tripling up in their houses.
ParticipantIt’s my impression that illegals are first hired/first fired, and also that many of them provide “optional” services– gardening, restaurant bussing, etc. As legal citizens pull in their spending horns due to the economy, these spending items might be the first to go.
Some anecdotes:
1) A commentor on another econ blog, some number of months ago, said that the “brown” people (whether green card or illegal) working construction were the first to be let go. She had talked to a Guatemalan guy who was planning to go back to Central America to look for work there, because work had dried up here. This was before we saw the dip in construction employment numbers here in SD/on Rich’s charts. My take was that the “shadow employees” were let go first, hiding the impact on overall construction employment till later in the housing downturn.
2) A headline in the U-T, a couple of months ago, said that Tijuana border crossing traffic was way down.
[/anecdotes]
What I hate is when people on both sides of the argument lump “immigration” and “illegal immigration” together and then everybody gets into a hairball about it. I have no problem with people who immigrate legally or get their green card, it’s the fence-jumpers who get on my nerves.
I have to wonder how much the price of housing here in SD is due to illegals cramming 10 and 15 to a house and paying whatever the landlord demands because hey, it’s only a couple hundred each for them.
It’s clear that San Diego housing is overcrowded. Go down any street in Mira Mesa or Clairemont and see how many cars are parked along the curb by people doubling and tripling up in their houses.
ParticipantYes, I believe the occupancy rate is going down… rather abruptly.
One complex that I regularly drive past has multiple empty parking spaces later in the evening. The same complex, when I lived in it in 2003, by 6 0r 7 pm you couldn’t find a space to save your life.
Sure enough, that complex has put a classified up in the U-T Rentals section, joining two other RB-area apartment complexes there.
What I am noticing about rents of condos, is that they appear to be dropping. 1BRs/1Ba in the area are now often going for $1100-something (although most of these are recent conversions). Seems like a couple of years ago, 1BRs were being rented for more like $1300 or so.
However, when I look at selling prices condos are being offered for on Realtor.com in the same area, the mortgage payments by themselves look to be less than the rents people are asking for equivalent units. (Very rough rule of thumb: you pay $600/month per $100,000 of mortgage.) It may be that others have noticed this too and that is sucking residents out of the apartment complexes in the area. It also means the people trying to rent out condos will have to offer them for lower than they are now.
ParticipantYes, I believe the occupancy rate is going down… rather abruptly.
One complex that I regularly drive past has multiple empty parking spaces later in the evening. The same complex, when I lived in it in 2003, by 6 0r 7 pm you couldn’t find a space to save your life.
Sure enough, that complex has put a classified up in the U-T Rentals section, joining two other RB-area apartment complexes there.
What I am noticing about rents of condos, is that they appear to be dropping. 1BRs/1Ba in the area are now often going for $1100-something (although most of these are recent conversions). Seems like a couple of years ago, 1BRs were being rented for more like $1300 or so.
However, when I look at selling prices condos are being offered for on Realtor.com in the same area, the mortgage payments by themselves look to be less than the rents people are asking for equivalent units. (Very rough rule of thumb: you pay $600/month per $100,000 of mortgage.) It may be that others have noticed this too and that is sucking residents out of the apartment complexes in the area. It also means the people trying to rent out condos will have to offer them for lower than they are now.
ParticipantYes, I believe the occupancy rate is going down… rather abruptly.
One complex that I regularly drive past has multiple empty parking spaces later in the evening. The same complex, when I lived in it in 2003, by 6 0r 7 pm you couldn’t find a space to save your life.
Sure enough, that complex has put a classified up in the U-T Rentals section, joining two other RB-area apartment complexes there.
What I am noticing about rents of condos, is that they appear to be dropping. 1BRs/1Ba in the area are now often going for $1100-something (although most of these are recent conversions). Seems like a couple of years ago, 1BRs were being rented for more like $1300 or so.
However, when I look at selling prices condos are being offered for on Realtor.com in the same area, the mortgage payments by themselves look to be less than the rents people are asking for equivalent units. (Very rough rule of thumb: you pay $600/month per $100,000 of mortgage.) It may be that others have noticed this too and that is sucking residents out of the apartment complexes in the area. It also means the people trying to rent out condos will have to offer them for lower than they are now.
ParticipantYes, I believe the occupancy rate is going down… rather abruptly.
One complex that I regularly drive past has multiple empty parking spaces later in the evening. The same complex, when I lived in it in 2003, by 6 0r 7 pm you couldn’t find a space to save your life.
Sure enough, that complex has put a classified up in the U-T Rentals section, joining two other RB-area apartment complexes there.
What I am noticing about rents of condos, is that they appear to be dropping. 1BRs/1Ba in the area are now often going for $1100-something (although most of these are recent conversions). Seems like a couple of years ago, 1BRs were being rented for more like $1300 or so.
However, when I look at selling prices condos are being offered for on Realtor.com in the same area, the mortgage payments by themselves look to be less than the rents people are asking for equivalent units. (Very rough rule of thumb: you pay $600/month per $100,000 of mortgage.) It may be that others have noticed this too and that is sucking residents out of the apartment complexes in the area. It also means the people trying to rent out condos will have to offer them for lower than they are now.
ParticipantYes, I believe the occupancy rate is going down… rather abruptly.
One complex that I regularly drive past has multiple empty parking spaces later in the evening. The same complex, when I lived in it in 2003, by 6 0r 7 pm you couldn’t find a space to save your life.
Sure enough, that complex has put a classified up in the U-T Rentals section, joining two other RB-area apartment complexes there.
What I am noticing about rents of condos, is that they appear to be dropping. 1BRs/1Ba in the area are now often going for $1100-something (although most of these are recent conversions). Seems like a couple of years ago, 1BRs were being rented for more like $1300 or so.
However, when I look at selling prices condos are being offered for on Realtor.com in the same area, the mortgage payments by themselves look to be less than the rents people are asking for equivalent units. (Very rough rule of thumb: you pay $600/month per $100,000 of mortgage.) It may be that others have noticed this too and that is sucking residents out of the apartment complexes in the area. It also means the people trying to rent out condos will have to offer them for lower than they are now.
ParticipantPD, you are in fine company.
Good ol’ Ben Franklin said, “neither borrower nor lender be.” Must be why he’s on the $100 bill.
I, too, hate debt. I think that’s a good attitude to have, especially in these times.
ParticipantPD, you are in fine company.
Good ol’ Ben Franklin said, “neither borrower nor lender be.” Must be why he’s on the $100 bill.
I, too, hate debt. I think that’s a good attitude to have, especially in these times.
ParticipantPD, you are in fine company.
Good ol’ Ben Franklin said, “neither borrower nor lender be.” Must be why he’s on the $100 bill.
I, too, hate debt. I think that’s a good attitude to have, especially in these times.
ParticipantPD, you are in fine company.
Good ol’ Ben Franklin said, “neither borrower nor lender be.” Must be why he’s on the $100 bill.
I, too, hate debt. I think that’s a good attitude to have, especially in these times.
ParticipantPD, you are in fine company.
Good ol’ Ben Franklin said, “neither borrower nor lender be.” Must be why he’s on the $100 bill.
I, too, hate debt. I think that’s a good attitude to have, especially in these times.
ParticipantGoing rental rates are more responsive to actual incomes, I think. You can’t get an 3/1 ARM with magical pony dust to cover your rent, it must come straight out of your paycheck.
So, someone who could afford a $2,000 rental payment could afford a $250,000 mortgage, assuming it’s an old school sane fixed-rate mortgage. The fact that $250K sounds unusually low to you just shows how out of whack prices around here are with peoples’ actual ability to pay.
FWIW, in 1996 I remember Rancho Bernardo houses going for $250K-ish. The MM house I’m renting in right now went for well under $200K. And to this day, comparable houses, with larger yards, in my Midwestern hometown go for closer to $100,000.
Yes, I know it’s California… but wherever you are, there’s only so much juice you can squeeze out of a grape.
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