[Cow_tipping]

HOA leins are junior to the primary. If the lender takes it back they try to sell it for the market value. If it sells at some price, and they deduct their costs and the primary is covered, then the junior leins get money in the order of their priority, for example a 20% secondary loan gets precedence over an unpaid utility bill which gets precedence over a HOA … so HOA’s never see any money in the default cases.
However the HOA can block the sale of a unit, because a primary loan originator wants it free and clear … so they check and make sure its all caught up. They can also block refi and inheritance processes.
I know cos I am the president of one. They are all worthless and delinquents generally make them all cost more and more for the homeowners. I can only imagine in a subdivision filled with rampant speculative buyers.
I think I’d like to see all of the real estate guru’s including the wannabe’s lined up and run over by a train just for that. Whose dumb Idea was it to treat your house like it was the freaking stock market. Outrageous transaction costs, Illiquid product, insane transaction time and people cant buy “puts” like with options … and its a speculation tool??? Stupid.
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[Cow_tipping]

200 X … heck no … 100 X is what I shoot for. In Charlotte NC that actually is a sign that both renter and owner are happy. But when I lived and rented in CA, I dont think any of my land lords were doing better than 150-200 X and that was from 95 – 2002. By 2002 we were firmly in 200 X territory. In 95 I was probably in the 150 X and I’d call that a fundamental. That was in northern CA BTW in the height of the IT growth … as in before we sent those jobs to India and china.
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[Cow_tipping]

Correct carlisleMattew and JJGittes.
The latest bubble is in … housing bubble blogs … I expect them to mirror the bubble itself with a delay … as the bubble dies, the blogs will die 12-18 months later.
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[Cow_tipping]

By 2011 we’d start seeing serious numbers of baby boomers try to unload their built in the 70’s crapboxes complete with lead paint and asbestos in the walls to “fund their retirement”.
If we dont crash and recover by 2011 … we’d not see anything recover for 30 more years … of course if we crash now and recover by 2011, we’d crash again in 2011 and stay down for 30 years.
Fast Crash now and start recovering in 08-09 and crash again in 2011 or slow crash to 2011 and then continue to crash for 30 more years.
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At present china has indexed it to the dollar. So everyhting we import will go up, except what we import from china (which is everyhting). Its actually cool, its like free money for a while. In fact some inflation is good. We have had none in the last few years. We need some.
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[Cow_tipping]

The bonds the chineese have been buying are guaranteed by houses (Mortgage backed … so they are guaranteed by people paying mortgages off really) … if they stop paying, chinese are going to stop buying our worthless paper … and that will drive up interest rates and make people think hard about who they are lending money to and at what cost.
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[Cow_tipping]

The bushies are in the big banks pocket … the bankers will get themselves bailed out while at the same time screwing the homeowners … now somehow … I see that as good for most of the people in here (you know galloping inflation and FB’s scrambling to get the newly printed $$ to the banks while relishing the ramen with free taco sauce they stole from taco bell … ) ya know …
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[Cow_tipping]

Correct city dweller … fundamentals change slowly … reverting to fundamentals means … it will sit there till they change … that’s however not a bottom, bottom will be when it over shoots the fundamentals and comes back up to fundamentals rather quick … So, we buy when its doing that …
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[Cow_tipping]

Not only were 02 prices inflated from the bubble and 9/11 paranoia (own a piece of american dirt before the terrorists take it all, never mind that if they could and did took it, and you owned it … you’d still be dirt less) … these were high paying and medium paying and low paying jobs in the us in 1997 that have probably disappeared forever into India and china via outsourcing by 2007. IMHO Our bottom is below 1997 prices. Remember in 97 we were furoiusly importing high wage jobs via H1 programs (200 K a year plus) which we now send out at an even furiouser pace.
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[Cow_tipping]

80 million baby boomers = 50 million houses in usually what I call the arctic tundra (though a bunch of them are in CA etc … but NY, NJ, CT, MA, MN, IL, OH, MI, OR, WA) have a large segment of that population … who I expect will attempt to unload their McMansions and head to FL. By 2011-2012 we will be in a 30 year depression in RE except in FL (ironic as that sounds now …) CA may stay the same from that regard, its not a retiree friendly state so I believe they will still try to get out. I think RE in the Northern 1/2 is toast starting 2011 on. Heck, might be time to fire up the steel mills again cos now you can live in those places on menial wages since the boomers have dumped their McMansions on the market. Detroit and MI has already started.
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[Cow_tipping]

In the dallas area, KB built a huge community on a missile test firing range. Kids playing in their back yard found a cold war era missile some with active charges cos they didn’t fire on impact.
Now KB missed that when they put in foundations and did grading … that tells you how 1/2 or 1/4 or 1/8th assed jobs they did or they were paid to not find it …
Honestly, I built a beazer house and it wasn’t bad at all. KB is worse in all respects. So is Centex. I hope they investigate centex atleast in NC. I wanna go over and tell them how shitty their construction is.
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[Cow_tipping]

No … no … no …
Ameriquest has a “Fraud detection department” … really … they can do that … man …
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[Cow_tipping]

Here is a new school of thought.
Anyone that puts their house up on the market for higher than they paid for … is a flipper if they bought it with the idea that sometime in the future they will sell it for more.
How is that …
The question at any time in any market is … will I be able to flip it for more … no time frame specified … that’s what you need to ask a Real-T-Whore. If they start a long winded BS … fire them and go to the next …
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[Cow_tipping]

Millionaires are smarter than the average sheeple … I mean true millionaires, not people who go, my home is worth a million bucks so I am a millionaire. They know not to touch this market with a 10 foot pole, and they were selling in 2004 and 05 not buying and they can really afford to wait the meltdown out 10 ways from sunday and buy at the true bottom, when interst rates are at 15% and they have had their money in gold and shorting mortgage companies till then, with cash.
Millionaires dont drive Hummers and ferraris, million bucks in debtors do, millionaires drive ford trucks and hybrid honda cars. Drive around your nearest McMansion and see how many of those you find. Compare that to the number of H2’s and you’d know.
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[Cow_tipping]

Proverbial tipping point … well I think that was in 2005. I should know … I am cow_tipping …. moooooo
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