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February 22, 2007 at 2:13 PM in reply to: California Coastal Housing Market Will Not Collapse #46021
Cow_tipping
ParticipantI would think that higher priced properties will get hit with a higher penalty when they start to drop.
I also thought higher $$ property appreciated less though. So I may be wrong on 1 or both counts.
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Cow_tipping.ParticipantWell I did a 15 year at 5. P&I is 1130 somehting.
Till 06 I was under 1400 all included. Taxes insurance etc. 06 taxes pushed me to 1487. That was when I started forking out more than rent.
I was unemployed for 7 months in 05. Didn’t even miss a payment. Did some bike parts and some selling bikes and fixing it and enjoyed life. Unemployment went in payments. I jus made some side $$ for groceries and …
5K per month … I’d literally choke anytime I thought about it. I am overly debt averse (being Injun … you live everyday like its the great depression – joke, and my own and a poor one at that)
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Cow_tipping.ParticipantYou’d have to think about it though.
I’d venture to guess, florida condo’s will start gaining ground as will San Diego and New mexico etc (warmer weather states with decent retiree laws) while the north and unfriendly retirement states plummet.
In any case, soon, if the existing house wont sell, it will be their grave (literally) cos they’d hope to fund a retirement out of that little piggy.
I dunno, wait and see, and yes I hope this crash is done and we recover before boomers start selling en masse.
BTW we have many retirement birds moving to NC and SC from FL due to hurricanes. Maybe FL is going to crash after all.
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Cow_tipping.ParticipantCharlotte NC (heck its a border town). Border with mexico looks like :-)).
I know people there could lose more than what I paid for my house … DR Horton discounted houses 150K in some subdivisions in sacramento.
Yea 50K, dont forget I maintained the freaking house too.
Now I could have rented the same house for ~ the same and walked away from it. I managed to pay down the principal quite a bit. I owe 120K on it as of now. My neighbor sold (flipped actually) his larger but less versatile house for 189K this week (closed today I believe), maybe I dont have to be so dejected.
But I may have to move and it has me worried sick.
Anyway I hope to not lose too much if the thing goes to sheite nationwide. but I’ll take a trip down to south charlotte and ballantyne just to laugh at the 400K houses dropping like a rock. then go back to my little hellhole and take the loss. Silver lining …
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Cow_tipping.ParticipantYea I wish I had your type story.
Well the saving grace is … I live 12 miles from work, and paid 150K for a 2723 sqft brand new house in 2003.
But I am more than likely going to lose my shirt if I sell in the next 2-3 years.
Anyway we are living in it and not looking at it as an investment. That’s what helps me get through the day. Shouldv’e rented all the way across, but my house was cheaper than rent till 2006 property tax bump.
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Cow_tipping.ParticipantI dont think its going to stabilise for a loooong time.
The baby boomers as they start to sell so they can have cash from their house or they die and their kids are trying to liquidate etc, will continue to swamp the market and set new low marks for prices. However that is a few more years out. If we are done with this crash very very fast, we may have some recovery going before that happens and that may be the right time to get out of ownership.
But if this crash drags on for 7-10 years, we’ll run smack into that window.
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Cow_tipping.ParticipantReally dumbass …
I own a house, and in North carolina … and I have posted that in a 100 places. Bought in 2003, at ~60 bucks a sqft financed at 5% even on a fully amortising 15 year loan and never skipped a payment …
I am a bubble theorist though … own or rent depends on fundamentals for the place you’re living in …
Only reason I am trolling here … this is one of the best bubble blogs around.
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Cow_tipping.ParticipantMy name is not Sridhar …
And cow Tipping is like condo flipping … cos … sooner or later, the cow’s gonna get ya …
I agree its horrible on the cow … but like I ahve always said … cow tipping is a team sport. You and the cow are a team … :-)) …
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Cow_tipping.Participant1365 sqft 1 story should be under 100K (my neighbors house was 1450 and 105K) and 2 storey should be ~85K. Of course I am including a 2 car garage not included in the sqft count. OK those are 2003 prices (my house is a centex box of 2723 sqft whcih centex will sell you right now for ~170K)
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Cow_tipping.February 14, 2007 at 7:13 PM in reply to: Would you buy a house 300 feet from Power lines and tower #45449ParticipantIn Charlotte North Carolina, builders can fool the FB’s with their marketing gimmicks. Once they buy, they’ll never be able to resell.
Less than 20% are under power lines. However they make up 80% of HUD and foreclosures.
To me there are many levels of power line houses.
Right under is worst, visible by the house is next, visible far away is next. I’d avoid all 3, but that last category may be what I’d give on … and my house currently … not even visible. Booya … look around … they are there.
Yea the Builder moron’s build their most $$$ ones under there. Winding walk by shea is a classic example. So is skybrook by various builders, and John weiland is building in sky brook with them visible close by. 500K house with view of power tower and lines.
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Cow_tipping.ParticipantDevelopers will do whatever it takes. Swaps between builders, start undercutting with pseudo names (fox and jacobs and centex is a classic double speak example)
The basis for this I use is a development called Poplar woods in charlotte NC.
Started by David Weekley in 1996 who built a few 2-3K sqft houses at ~125 a sqft. Very very high end.
Then in 1998 they bailed and sold out to Shea, who promply shafted the old owners by building larger houses which were almost identical looking for ~ the same $$$ … like a 2K sqft DW will have cost the same as a 2.5K sqft Shea 3 years later.
Then Shea bailed in 2000 (charlotte had some serious price deflation from 96-02) selling out to beazer. Beazer first built ~$80-100 a sqft. Then in 2002-03 the last 6 lots were built by beazer for $50 a sqft or so. 2625 sqft with a base price of 135 or so.
If you want to see the neighborhood’s progression check it on the GIS system.
Its in Cabarrus county North carolina, near concord and the house I built (but didn’t move into) was 101 poplar woods drive. Check out all the rest of the neighborhood.
Falling real estate demand = lower prices for materials, land, labor and everything. I see it all dropping to 1/2 the peak and the builders still making $$$ hand over fist.
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Cow_tipping.ParticipantYea … that’s too lenient … call me when its at its 1997 price or Carleton Sheets is in Jail.
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Cow_tipping.ParticipantI dont believe in this saving the house crap.
If the house is worth less than what you paid for … its not worth being called an “Investment” …
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Cow_tipping.ParticipantCash outs are hard money. The original purchases are soft money. I dunno what exactly, but they can come after you and put you in jail I believe for stiffing hard money.
However … lets see, that will be about 2-3 million people going to jail in the next 3-4 years. NFL … Not F*(king Likely.
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Srinath. -
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