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cashman
ParticipantBy, the way, Gary, you didn’t happen to grow up and go to school in the San Fernando Valley, did you? I had a very good friend in Jr. High named Gary Sears.
ParticipantI’m curious, if the ARMs peak in October as projected, won’t it take a few months for any homeowner’s distress related to the higher payments to be felt in the marketplace? Let’s say a payment increases by 10 or 20 percent in October, Mr & Mrs FB Homeowner struggle for a couple of months or so to make the payment, then after three to six months realize they are fighting a losing battle and give up the ship. Then comes the several month period before they get the NOD, and several months after that for the NOT sale. So it could be well into next year, maybe fall of 2008, before the October resets are of any consequence on home prices, which we are all anxiously waiting to fall. Correct me if I’m wrong.
ParticipantI’m curious, if the ARMs peak in October as projected, won’t it take a few months for any homeowner’s distress related to the higher payments to be felt in the marketplace? Let’s say a payment increases by 10 or 20 percent in October, Mr & Mrs FB Homeowner struggle for a couple of months or so to make the payment, then after three to six months realize they are fighting a losing battle and give up the ship. Then comes the several month period before they get the NOD, and several months after that for the NOT sale. So it could be well into next year, maybe fall of 2008, before the October resets are of any consequence on home prices, which we are all anxiously waiting to fall. Correct me if I’m wrong.
ParticipantI thought a bear market was defined as being 20 percent off of the highs. We’re only about 5 to 6 percent off as of Friday’s close, aren’t we?
ParticipantI thought a bear market was defined as being 20 percent off of the highs. We’re only about 5 to 6 percent off as of Friday’s close, aren’t we?
ParticipantBugs, I know it is delayed in LA County, and I’m really trying to be patient. I do feel that it’s coming my way. It’s just painful to see $2700 going out every month for the last year and a half, and not see much declines in resales. I figure I’ve spent $51,300 so far on rent, and the average home here in Diamond Bar has not declined by that much, yet. At that rate, I am just mirroring any declines at best.
For those of you that asked, Diamond Bar is on the eastern edge of LA county, just north of Orange County and west of San Bernadino County. Prices are extremely sticky here. For 550K you get a 1300 sq. ft. 40 year old POS. Really sad. 100 percent overpriced.ParticipantBugs, I know it is delayed in LA County, and I’m really trying to be patient. I do feel that it’s coming my way. It’s just painful to see $2700 going out every month for the last year and a half, and not see much declines in resales. I figure I’ve spent $51,300 so far on rent, and the average home here in Diamond Bar has not declined by that much, yet. At that rate, I am just mirroring any declines at best.
For those of you that asked, Diamond Bar is on the eastern edge of LA county, just north of Orange County and west of San Bernadino County. Prices are extremely sticky here. For 550K you get a 1300 sq. ft. 40 year old POS. Really sad. 100 percent overpriced.ParticipantOzzie, don’t forget to read what Rich has to say about the valuation of the market titled “U.S. Stock Market Risks” at the top right of this page. PEs are very deceptive right now as we are at the peaks of years of great earnings. That will surely subside. If the Dow breaks 11,750, watch out below, as wave five of the great bull market will have ended.
ParticipantOzzie, don’t forget to read what Rich has to say about the valuation of the market titled “U.S. Stock Market Risks” at the top right of this page. PEs are very deceptive right now as we are at the peaks of years of great earnings. That will surely subside. If the Dow breaks 11,750, watch out below, as wave five of the great bull market will have ended.
ParticipantI think what kev374 is trying to say, and I echo it, is that for a year and a half now we have been reading here on Piggington how the declines are just a few months away, be patient. The advice never changes, it’s always “just around the corner” or we’re at the “tipping point”. I guess some of us are just simply getting frustrated at the slowness of this cycle. Especially if you’re in good area where prices have barely budged, like myself. I’ve spent about 50K on rent so far, with no end in sight. I’m beginning to wonder how much money I have actually saved if prices don’t start to decline soon. If this goes on for a few more years at this pace, which seems likely, there will eventually be a point where the rent spent will be more than any savings from a price decline.
ParticipantI think what kev374 is trying to say, and I echo it, is that for a year and a half now we have been reading here on Piggington how the declines are just a few months away, be patient. The advice never changes, it’s always “just around the corner” or we’re at the “tipping point”. I guess some of us are just simply getting frustrated at the slowness of this cycle. Especially if you’re in good area where prices have barely budged, like myself. I’ve spent about 50K on rent so far, with no end in sight. I’m beginning to wonder how much money I have actually saved if prices don’t start to decline soon. If this goes on for a few more years at this pace, which seems likely, there will eventually be a point where the rent spent will be more than any savings from a price decline.
ParticipantI’ve got a friend that lives in Rancho Cucamonga and works in Apple Valley. He says he likes going against the traffic for commuting. Go figure. Personally, I think the mountain areas around Lake Arrowhead are more appealing or land, and are still somewhat reasonably priced.
ParticipantI’ve got a friend that lives in Rancho Cucamonga and works in Apple Valley. He says he likes going against the traffic for commuting. Go figure. Personally, I think the mountain areas around Lake Arrowhead are more appealing or land, and are still somewhat reasonably priced.
ParticipantI wouldn’t count on any significant correction yet. The pattern has been that if you buy any dip, you will be rewarded within a few days. Why is today’s drop any different? I, too, am hoping for a substantial correction of at least 20 percent, but I’ve come to the conclusion that this market is highly manipulated, either by PPT, or market makers.
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