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carlsbadworker
Participant[quote=temeculaguy]Nor, that isn’t a far fetched prediction, in fact I think it will happen sooner as opposed to later. I’ll go 2012, that will be the start of the next cycle and it will take time for builders to catch up. 2009 will be crappy, 2010 will show signs of life and by 2011 we will be seeing electric cars and be out of all the wars (I predit apple makes the icar in 2011), the good times will roll again in 2012 and there wont have been much construction between now and then. This country will pull out of the global recession before other countries do and more people will come here (legally and illegally), and the whole thing starts all over again. Maybe it won’t be 2012 or 2016 but cycles always repeat themselves, we wont make the subprime mistake again but we will make new mistakes. hopefully we will piggies will have learned from the past and position ourselves well in the next bubble, wherever that may be.[/quote]
TG, I agree with you and I am going to throw some numbers out. Some calculation shows that we will experience the tight supply again in year 2015 because the population growth in CA alone (notice that this time around nobody really moved out of CA?) However, if you believe Bruce Norris’ theory, the biggest wildcard in home price appreciation is migration. Sooner or later someone will realize while they are paying $200K for an older, smaller house anywhere around the country, they can pay $280K for a newer, larger house in a town like Temecula in California, or $250K in Murrieta, or even in $150K in Sun City (pun intended). Although I know that the rest of country probably do not like Californian that much, but you got to love the California sunshine. Due to the higher income tax here in CA, it will primarily attract all the retirees who need to pay almost no income tax, but who would value a good weather.
Participant[quote=temeculaguy]Nor, that isn’t a far fetched prediction, in fact I think it will happen sooner as opposed to later. I’ll go 2012, that will be the start of the next cycle and it will take time for builders to catch up. 2009 will be crappy, 2010 will show signs of life and by 2011 we will be seeing electric cars and be out of all the wars (I predit apple makes the icar in 2011), the good times will roll again in 2012 and there wont have been much construction between now and then. This country will pull out of the global recession before other countries do and more people will come here (legally and illegally), and the whole thing starts all over again. Maybe it won’t be 2012 or 2016 but cycles always repeat themselves, we wont make the subprime mistake again but we will make new mistakes. hopefully we will piggies will have learned from the past and position ourselves well in the next bubble, wherever that may be.[/quote]
TG, I agree with you and I am going to throw some numbers out. Some calculation shows that we will experience the tight supply again in year 2015 because the population growth in CA alone (notice that this time around nobody really moved out of CA?) However, if you believe Bruce Norris’ theory, the biggest wildcard in home price appreciation is migration. Sooner or later someone will realize while they are paying $200K for an older, smaller house anywhere around the country, they can pay $280K for a newer, larger house in a town like Temecula in California, or $250K in Murrieta, or even in $150K in Sun City (pun intended). Although I know that the rest of country probably do not like Californian that much, but you got to love the California sunshine. Due to the higher income tax here in CA, it will primarily attract all the retirees who need to pay almost no income tax, but who would value a good weather.
Participant[quote=temeculaguy]Nor, that isn’t a far fetched prediction, in fact I think it will happen sooner as opposed to later. I’ll go 2012, that will be the start of the next cycle and it will take time for builders to catch up. 2009 will be crappy, 2010 will show signs of life and by 2011 we will be seeing electric cars and be out of all the wars (I predit apple makes the icar in 2011), the good times will roll again in 2012 and there wont have been much construction between now and then. This country will pull out of the global recession before other countries do and more people will come here (legally and illegally), and the whole thing starts all over again. Maybe it won’t be 2012 or 2016 but cycles always repeat themselves, we wont make the subprime mistake again but we will make new mistakes. hopefully we will piggies will have learned from the past and position ourselves well in the next bubble, wherever that may be.[/quote]
TG, I agree with you and I am going to throw some numbers out. Some calculation shows that we will experience the tight supply again in year 2015 because the population growth in CA alone (notice that this time around nobody really moved out of CA?) However, if you believe Bruce Norris’ theory, the biggest wildcard in home price appreciation is migration. Sooner or later someone will realize while they are paying $200K for an older, smaller house anywhere around the country, they can pay $280K for a newer, larger house in a town like Temecula in California, or $250K in Murrieta, or even in $150K in Sun City (pun intended). Although I know that the rest of country probably do not like Californian that much, but you got to love the California sunshine. Due to the higher income tax here in CA, it will primarily attract all the retirees who need to pay almost no income tax, but who would value a good weather.
Participant[quote=temeculaguy]Nor, that isn’t a far fetched prediction, in fact I think it will happen sooner as opposed to later. I’ll go 2012, that will be the start of the next cycle and it will take time for builders to catch up. 2009 will be crappy, 2010 will show signs of life and by 2011 we will be seeing electric cars and be out of all the wars (I predit apple makes the icar in 2011), the good times will roll again in 2012 and there wont have been much construction between now and then. This country will pull out of the global recession before other countries do and more people will come here (legally and illegally), and the whole thing starts all over again. Maybe it won’t be 2012 or 2016 but cycles always repeat themselves, we wont make the subprime mistake again but we will make new mistakes. hopefully we will piggies will have learned from the past and position ourselves well in the next bubble, wherever that may be.[/quote]
TG, I agree with you and I am going to throw some numbers out. Some calculation shows that we will experience the tight supply again in year 2015 because the population growth in CA alone (notice that this time around nobody really moved out of CA?) However, if you believe Bruce Norris’ theory, the biggest wildcard in home price appreciation is migration. Sooner or later someone will realize while they are paying $200K for an older, smaller house anywhere around the country, they can pay $280K for a newer, larger house in a town like Temecula in California, or $250K in Murrieta, or even in $150K in Sun City (pun intended). Although I know that the rest of country probably do not like Californian that much, but you got to love the California sunshine. Due to the higher income tax here in CA, it will primarily attract all the retirees who need to pay almost no income tax, but who would value a good weather.
Participant[quote=HereWeGo]Predictions:
Rents start to fall dramatically.
Recent investors panic, relist to cut losses.
The next leg down.
[/quote]Here is the question I am really interested in: how many real estate investors still have bullets left to pull the trigger (given the tightening of lending standards)? A lot of “investors” that I know already run out of money (if they bought in 2007 or earlier, they got to love the “deals” presented to them early this year!). So I do think all of the recent investors’ hopes are tied with the rents really close. Therefore, if rents do start to fall (which I think is unavoidable), they will definitely feel the pain. Whether or not they will panic and cut losses, that is too much for me to speculate. After all, they enter the game knowing that it is speculative unlike most FBs.
Participant[quote=HereWeGo]Predictions:
Rents start to fall dramatically.
Recent investors panic, relist to cut losses.
The next leg down.
[/quote]Here is the question I am really interested in: how many real estate investors still have bullets left to pull the trigger (given the tightening of lending standards)? A lot of “investors” that I know already run out of money (if they bought in 2007 or earlier, they got to love the “deals” presented to them early this year!). So I do think all of the recent investors’ hopes are tied with the rents really close. Therefore, if rents do start to fall (which I think is unavoidable), they will definitely feel the pain. Whether or not they will panic and cut losses, that is too much for me to speculate. After all, they enter the game knowing that it is speculative unlike most FBs.
Participant[quote=HereWeGo]Predictions:
Rents start to fall dramatically.
Recent investors panic, relist to cut losses.
The next leg down.
[/quote]Here is the question I am really interested in: how many real estate investors still have bullets left to pull the trigger (given the tightening of lending standards)? A lot of “investors” that I know already run out of money (if they bought in 2007 or earlier, they got to love the “deals” presented to them early this year!). So I do think all of the recent investors’ hopes are tied with the rents really close. Therefore, if rents do start to fall (which I think is unavoidable), they will definitely feel the pain. Whether or not they will panic and cut losses, that is too much for me to speculate. After all, they enter the game knowing that it is speculative unlike most FBs.
Participant[quote=HereWeGo]Predictions:
Rents start to fall dramatically.
Recent investors panic, relist to cut losses.
The next leg down.
[/quote]Here is the question I am really interested in: how many real estate investors still have bullets left to pull the trigger (given the tightening of lending standards)? A lot of “investors” that I know already run out of money (if they bought in 2007 or earlier, they got to love the “deals” presented to them early this year!). So I do think all of the recent investors’ hopes are tied with the rents really close. Therefore, if rents do start to fall (which I think is unavoidable), they will definitely feel the pain. Whether or not they will panic and cut losses, that is too much for me to speculate. After all, they enter the game knowing that it is speculative unlike most FBs.
Participant[quote=HereWeGo]Predictions:
Rents start to fall dramatically.
Recent investors panic, relist to cut losses.
The next leg down.
[/quote]Here is the question I am really interested in: how many real estate investors still have bullets left to pull the trigger (given the tightening of lending standards)? A lot of “investors” that I know already run out of money (if they bought in 2007 or earlier, they got to love the “deals” presented to them early this year!). So I do think all of the recent investors’ hopes are tied with the rents really close. Therefore, if rents do start to fall (which I think is unavoidable), they will definitely feel the pain. Whether or not they will panic and cut losses, that is too much for me to speculate. After all, they enter the game knowing that it is speculative unlike most FBs.
Participant[quote=asianautica]
I think I’ll side w/ HLS on this one. If you don’t have a few grand to buy down rates, then you’re probably extending a little too much to buy the house. If you are not sure of your job security, then you shouldn’t be buying a house. Point is, If you can’t afford to pay a few grand up front to get you a better rate, you should rethink the house you’re buying. It might be too much for you. Pay a few thousands up front will save you tens of thousands over the life of the loan.[/quote]Just because you have money to spend it on paying a few grand up front doesn’t mean you should spend on it. I could probably pay 40% down or more to get the best rate HLS refers to, but it may not be the best option for me. With extra cash, there are unlimited options. I could buy another investment property when the time is right. I could invest in my favorite company (or even start up my own company) when the time is right. It really depends on how much difference the mortgage rates are (typically they are small differences) and what your alternative options are. You might think that you saved tens of thousands over the life of the loan but your opportunity costs might be even higher.
Participant[quote=asianautica]
I think I’ll side w/ HLS on this one. If you don’t have a few grand to buy down rates, then you’re probably extending a little too much to buy the house. If you are not sure of your job security, then you shouldn’t be buying a house. Point is, If you can’t afford to pay a few grand up front to get you a better rate, you should rethink the house you’re buying. It might be too much for you. Pay a few thousands up front will save you tens of thousands over the life of the loan.[/quote]Just because you have money to spend it on paying a few grand up front doesn’t mean you should spend on it. I could probably pay 40% down or more to get the best rate HLS refers to, but it may not be the best option for me. With extra cash, there are unlimited options. I could buy another investment property when the time is right. I could invest in my favorite company (or even start up my own company) when the time is right. It really depends on how much difference the mortgage rates are (typically they are small differences) and what your alternative options are. You might think that you saved tens of thousands over the life of the loan but your opportunity costs might be even higher.
Participant[quote=asianautica]
I think I’ll side w/ HLS on this one. If you don’t have a few grand to buy down rates, then you’re probably extending a little too much to buy the house. If you are not sure of your job security, then you shouldn’t be buying a house. Point is, If you can’t afford to pay a few grand up front to get you a better rate, you should rethink the house you’re buying. It might be too much for you. Pay a few thousands up front will save you tens of thousands over the life of the loan.[/quote]Just because you have money to spend it on paying a few grand up front doesn’t mean you should spend on it. I could probably pay 40% down or more to get the best rate HLS refers to, but it may not be the best option for me. With extra cash, there are unlimited options. I could buy another investment property when the time is right. I could invest in my favorite company (or even start up my own company) when the time is right. It really depends on how much difference the mortgage rates are (typically they are small differences) and what your alternative options are. You might think that you saved tens of thousands over the life of the loan but your opportunity costs might be even higher.
Participant[quote=asianautica]
I think I’ll side w/ HLS on this one. If you don’t have a few grand to buy down rates, then you’re probably extending a little too much to buy the house. If you are not sure of your job security, then you shouldn’t be buying a house. Point is, If you can’t afford to pay a few grand up front to get you a better rate, you should rethink the house you’re buying. It might be too much for you. Pay a few thousands up front will save you tens of thousands over the life of the loan.[/quote]Just because you have money to spend it on paying a few grand up front doesn’t mean you should spend on it. I could probably pay 40% down or more to get the best rate HLS refers to, but it may not be the best option for me. With extra cash, there are unlimited options. I could buy another investment property when the time is right. I could invest in my favorite company (or even start up my own company) when the time is right. It really depends on how much difference the mortgage rates are (typically they are small differences) and what your alternative options are. You might think that you saved tens of thousands over the life of the loan but your opportunity costs might be even higher.
Participant[quote=asianautica]
I think I’ll side w/ HLS on this one. If you don’t have a few grand to buy down rates, then you’re probably extending a little too much to buy the house. If you are not sure of your job security, then you shouldn’t be buying a house. Point is, If you can’t afford to pay a few grand up front to get you a better rate, you should rethink the house you’re buying. It might be too much for you. Pay a few thousands up front will save you tens of thousands over the life of the loan.[/quote]Just because you have money to spend it on paying a few grand up front doesn’t mean you should spend on it. I could probably pay 40% down or more to get the best rate HLS refers to, but it may not be the best option for me. With extra cash, there are unlimited options. I could buy another investment property when the time is right. I could invest in my favorite company (or even start up my own company) when the time is right. It really depends on how much difference the mortgage rates are (typically they are small differences) and what your alternative options are. You might think that you saved tens of thousands over the life of the loan but your opportunity costs might be even higher.
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