[carlsbadworker]

I am down 69%…approaching double digit loss in crypto.

[carlsbadworker]

I like Vancouver, Toronto is even better.

However income is lower in Canada, so you need to bring money from US.

[carlsbadworker]

I don’t see $35, $78 or up for me.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=bibsoconner]
Where is info on Shiller PE10 Ratio? I was actually trying to determine if the P/E ratio was decent.
[/quote]

Here is the chart:
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

So, yeah, not exactly “cheap”, but still probably cheaper than anytime in 2021.

[carlsbadworker]

You answered your own question. It seems to be the best time to buy comparing to anytime in the last 52 weeks. No one knows whether it is still good in the next 52 weeks.

But long-term investment is always about buy low and sell high. The valuation is not the best. Shiller PE10 Ratio is 34.46 as we speak, but it is better than any time since Jan 2021.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=scaredyclassic]
Ok. I agree. Maybe old people are getting slower. Or wiser.

Personally I’ve been seeing a 4 perc annual gain in wisdom. At this rate, under current actuarial calculations, I should be enlightened right before dying, and I’m reasonably confident I have enough wisdom to last my lifespan through. Could run short though.[/quote]

I personally believe getting slower is wiser. Imagine how less worries life can be if we don’t have to react to many imaginative threats in our mind. Yes, once a while you did eventually encounter a real one…even Buddha died of food poison, but that’s probably one real one out of one hundred imaginative ones…and you don’t have to live in a constant fear of world-ending scenario. To me, that’s liberating…and wiser.

Besides, the world is doing just fine…and if it doesn’t, there isn’t much you can do about it anyway. Stop managing the universe. It doesn’t need your help.

Anyway, back to the OP, I searched the rental price and it looks like it is around $6K per month? So my math shows $2.3M/(6k*12) = 32. So that’s around 3.125% annual before-cost yield…in case you want to compare with other investment options.

[carlsbadworker]

But local supermarket doesn’t cost $50 to get in…nevermind, I think they do now with rising inflation.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=svelte]Why does anyone think this is a good deal?

The fixed rate is zero and remains that way for the life of the bond.

Therefore, the rate of the bond is twice the semi-annual inflation rate, ie it is the rate of inflation. And that is calculated twice a year.

In other words, your money is just staying pace with the rate of inflation!

You’re not making money – you’re just breaking even![/quote]

In a world of investments full of negative expected return, breaking even looks pretty good:
https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/gmo-7-year-asset-class-forecast-october-2021/

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=pinkflamingo]Interesting phenomenon. A home was valued between 1.2-1.3M on zillow, redfin prior to listing their home. The home was subsequently listed for 2 million. All of a sudden redfin, zillow estimates immediately jumps to 2M[/quote]

I found the most outrageous behavior is that Redfin would also modify their historical price estimate to show a gradual increase of estimate from 1.3M to 2M, further to justify the current valuation.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=phaster][quote=scaredyclassic]Ego inflation is on the rise.[/quote]

so do you think the rise in “ego” is sustainable,… or do you think there is an “ego” bubble?[/quote]

Doesn’t the ego bubble go with the financial bubble?

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=sdrealtor] The prices they were paying here just didn’t make sense back then[/quote]

Sean Gotcher, a Las Vegas real estate agent, offered a conspiracy theory that iBuyer companies are manipulating the market by intentionally overpaying for some homes in order to sell others that they’ve already bought in nearby areas for a higher price.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=sdrealtor]Was gonna post this morning that the layoffs would come soon but they came much harder and faster than I would’ve thought. Really surprised they are cutting that deep. 25% on the way out the door[/quote]

Bloomberg reported Monday that Zillow is looking to sell about 7,000 homes, and is seeking roughly $2.8 billion for the houses. Will we see any of those in the market?

[carlsbadworker]

Shares of Zillow Group Inc. took a dive Monday, after KeyBanc analyst Edward Yruma highlighted how most of the homes the real estate services company purchased, with an aim to flip them, were now worth less than what they paid for them.

The stock Z, -5.26% shed 5.8% in midday trading. Although the stock was still up 13.6% since closing at a 13-month low of $86.00 on Oct. 18, which was the day Zillow said it would stop buying U.S. homes after building a big backlog, the stock was still down 51.1% since closing at a record $199.90 on Feb. 16.

“Zillow may have leaned into home acquisition at the wrong time, and we believe earnings may be at risk due to its current home inventory ($1.17 billion at 2Q21),” Yruma wrote in a note to clients.

Yruma said it completed an analysis of 650 homes in Zillow’s inventory, or about one-fifth of the homes owned, and found that 66% are currently listed below the purchase price at an average discount of 4.5%.

Of the 650 homes Yruma analyzed, the cities in which the company had the highest percentage of homes that were listed below the purchase price were San Diego at 94.3%, Phoenix at 93.4% and Mesa, Ariz. at 92.6%.

The city with the most homes listed below the purchase price was Phoenix with 71. Charlotte, N.C. had 70 and Las Vegas had 52.

“While we do think that [Zillow’s] issues are likely transitory in nature, we do think it highlights the importance of strong property level and market data,” Yruma wrote. “From a [long-term] perspective, we maintain that [Zillow’s] changing customer focus (the agent is the customer in the IMT business vs. the consumer in homes) may for unanticipated (and likely negative) compromises.”

Yruma reiterated the neutral rating he’s had on the stock since February 2020.

The stock has tumbled 24.8% year to date, while Zillow’s Class A shares ZG, -7.11%, which were shedding 7.6% on Monday, have sunk 28.2% this year. In comparison, the iShares U.S. Home Construction exchange-traded fund ITB, 1.00% has run up 30.3% and the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.09% has gained 22.8%.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=XBoxBoy][quote=gzz]The big underlying cause of declining rates is demographic. [/quote]
I think your certainty that the lack of inflation and the inevitability of low rates is something you should rethink.[/quote]

I don’t think gzz said anything about lack of inflation. His prediction is about rate, which is about oversupply for saving v.s. market demand for those saving.

If I understand him correctly. He is saying that demographic change creates more savings and the rich also has excessive saving, that they will accept however low returns due to these excessive savings that there’re not enough market demand for it (e.g. lower corporate investment demand).

The logic is sound to me.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=Rich Toscano]Are you trying to get me to argue with you about interest rates? Sorry, I don’t want to. You have all the answers already, so what’s the point?[/quote]

Well. It would at least help the rest of us to think about interest rate expectation.

I believe the market is currently expecting that in one year from now, FED will raise interest rate by 25 basis points. Canadian FED will raise the rate by 75 basis points. UK rate will trend around 1%.

I completely agree with gzz’s point that the long run interest rate will be suppressed and FED is right to delay raising the rates, but in the middle term, inflation will force many governments to act, especially more “socialists” governments.

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