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CA renter
Participant[quote=njtosd]
Wait – you believe in IQ tests?? The data against those is mountainous compared to the data supporting a vaccine autism link. In any event, I would point to the helicobacter pylori controversy as a more modern example of what you are saying (ulcers caused by bacterial infection rather than acid/stress). In that case, the ridiculed doctor provided clear experimental data that he was right, the ridicule stopped, and those that discredited him had to eat crow. You never hear of people having surgery for ulcers anymore (good meds also contribute to this improvement). When (and if) similar data is generated to support your view, enough reasonable people exist who will take notice. The problem is that data supporting a vaccine/autism connection don’t exist other than anecdotally.[/quote]
Let’s just say that if you had personally experienced what these other families had, my guess is that you would feel differently. Sometimes, anecdotal evidence is enough to make one question the official message.
And, just as you’ve noted in your other posts, the benefits of vaccination to society generally outweigh the risks to certain individuals who might be genetically(?) predisposed to autism which might be triggered by vaccinations. That is reason enough for the medical community to circle the wagons and refute any evidence, anecdotal or otherwise, that might cause people to stop vaccinating their children in large numbers.
BTW, these parents were all very well-educated and financially well-off. They were not uneducated “idiots” who were looking for a payout from the pharmaceutical industry.
ParticipantHmmmm, sounds a bit like a personal attack…which you know never helps your side in an argument.
I’m very much a numbers, facts, and figures type of person with an IQ above the 99th percentile, and I’m also intelligent enough to know when a conflict of interest exists. Some don’t have that same ability, or they’re too naive to understand why or how it might exist.
Again, anecdote almost always precedes science. People thought that Dr. Semmelweis was an “idiot” for thinking that washing hands might bring down hospital fatality rates. There are so very many examples where the medical community was doing something that was completely harmful to patients…and there were always “discredited idiots” who would cause an outcry about these practices…and they were eventually proven right. There are countless stories like this.
Participant[quote=utcsox][quote=CA renter][quote=SK in CV][quote=poorgradstudent]Looks like unemployment is finally starting to catch up in what has been a largely jobless recovery.
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Largely jobless? Something like 12 million private sector jobs in the last 5 years, and more than 5.5 million in the last 2 years is jobless?[/quote]
But most of those new jobs are in lower-paying sectors than the ones that disappeared during the recession. It probably feels pretty “jobless” when people are making around half of what they were making just a few years ago. We know a few people who are literally making that much less![/quote]
From the from the BLS: “In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 12 cents to $24.75, following a decrease of 5 cents in December. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.2 percent.” With CPI that is under 2%, there has been some real wage growth.
Persons working part time for economic reasons and long term unemployed (> 26 weeks) are still much higher than historical data. However; they are both trending down rapidly. We might see some real wage growth in 2015 if the recovery continue.[/quote]
Yes, and it’s good to finally see that after ~5 years of rising prices and stagnant/declining wages. We still have a long, long way to go before workers’ wages catch up to their purchasing power from years ago.
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But after adjusting for inflation, todayās average hourly wage has just about the same purchasing power as it did in 1979, following a long slide in the 1980s and early 1990s and bumpy, inconsistent growth since then. In fact, in real terms the average wage peaked more than 40 years ago: The $4.03-an-hour rate recorded in January 1973 has the same purchasing power as $22.41 would today.
A similar measure, āusual weekly earningsā of employed, full-time, wage and salary workers, tells much the same story, albeit over a shorter time period. In seasonally adjusted current dollars, median usual weekly earnings rose from $232 in the first quarter 0f 1979 (when the series began) to $782 in the second quarter of this year (the most recent data available). But in real terms, the median has barely budged over that period.
What gains have been made, have gone to the upper income brackets. Since 2000, usual weekly wages have fallen 3.7% (in real terms) among workers in the lowest tenth of the earnings distribution, and 3% among the lowest quarter. But among people near the top of the distribution, real wages have risen 9.7%.
Participant[quote=njtosd]Unless you have a child with a demonstrated thimerosal sensitivity (and I”ve not seen any recorded cases of such), the portion of my text that you bolded doesn’t come into play. BTW, when you are quoting me, please do not add emphasis without noting “emphasis added by CARenter” (or whoever) or better yet, please don’t change my text at all and instead use your comments to express your views. You have sort of changed the meaning of what I said by bolding – as that text describes a very minor exception.
Please see Am. Acad. Of Ped. Summary of vaccine studies showing (among other things) complete lack of evidence of problems with thimerosal or a benefit in stretching schedule of vaccination. But perhaps the AAP is part of a conspiracy against children – you never know …….. https://www2.aap.org/immunization/families/faq/vaccinestudies.pdf
PS when did you buy the non-thimerosal vaccines?[/quote]
1. You don’t necessarily know if your child has a sensitivity to thimerosal.
Though some have indeed shown a sensitivity to thimerosal, it is usually fairly mild and localized.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2044374
2. I was agreeing with the portion of your post where you stated that being vaccinated is safer than not being vaccinated. I was just adding, parenthetically, that this was why we went ahead with the vaccinations ourselves. At the time (early 2000s), there were still questions about the safety of vaccines, particularly the combined MMR vaccines and mercury toxicity. It was then that we opted to separate the vaccines and get thimerosal-free vaccines whenever possible (of all vaccines…some were already thimerosal free, and some were not). By the time our youngest was born, in 2005, many/most of the vaccines were thimerosal-free…which I’m sure they didn’t do “just because.”
This is why the scientific community will fight any claims that vaccines cause problems:
“Further, the committee stated that the benefits of vaccination are proven and the hypothesis of susceptible populations is presently speculative, and that widespread rejection of vaccines would lead to increases in incidences of serious infectious diseases like measles, whooping cough and Hib bacterial meningitis.”
http://www.fda.gov/BiologicsBloodVaccines/SafetyAvailability/VaccineSafety/UCM096228
Which is how I read what you had said in the portion of your post that I had bolded.
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As for bolding your text, the reason I had bolded that portion is because I do NOT like to clip or edit portions of other people’s posts, so tend to include their entire post when I respond specifically so that nothing can be taken out of context. I’ve had Harvey, in particular, absolutely butcher my posts with the clear intention of trying to twist what I’m saying into something completely different, so am very sensitive to having people edit another person’s posts.
I was only responding to the bolded portion (the portion that I had bolded) of your text. It’s is VERY common for posters to do that around here.
I always note when I emphasize text from another (non-Pigg) source, but didn’t do so in this case because your post is just two posts above mine, and I was only referring to that part of your post. I will be sure to clearly state when I am emphasizing any portions of your quotes from this point forward. My apologies for not doing so in this case.
Participant[quote=harvey][quote=CA renter]I’m talking about incredibly dramatic and permanent changes happening within ~24 hours after a vaccination. A perfectly normal child becoming totally unresponsive to their own parents and siblings within a day.
There are thousands upon thousands of people who’ve had this very experience. […][/quote]
Speaking of the “I read something on the internet” brand of “science” …[/quote]
No, two families we have known in person. One family had one child with a reaction (they didn’t vaccinate their other child), and the other family had two children who reacted negatively to their vaccines (with one child having very severe autism, and the other with a mild-moderate form).
In all three cases, their reactions happened within about 24 hours after getting the vaccines. Again, these were *perfectly normal* children who had very dramatic changes within a day of getting vaccinated. This was not progressive or regressive, nor did they have any indication of being autistic before these vaccinations.
In the first case (with one child), the child just walked into the parents’ bedroom the next morning with his eyes glazed over. He didn’t smile or react in any way when his parents spoke to him. When I last saw this family about ten years ago, their son was still severely autistic, though he was making some progress because of the daily work with his one-on-one therapist who came to their house for hours each day.
In the other case, the children got very sick, had rashes and very high fevers, were screaming in pain, etc. As they recovered from their illnesses (they were basically catatonic during their illnesses), the parents noted that they were not responding to them, either. One child eventually responded to some extent (though never fully recovered), and the other ended up being extremely autistic.
Participant[quote=spdrun]I was at B&H this morning — quite crowded. Do East Coast people still shop more at brick and mortar?
I’m not looking forward to a future of everyone rolling around in self-driving sensory-deprivation bubbles and with most commerce coming from big-box warehouses in flyoveria staffed by robots and/or minimum wagers. People who are yapping about “disrupting the next thing” should really think about the kind of world that they want to live in.
Imagine if technology is used to enhance, rather than disrupt. To use one example: instead of creating an industry manufacturing suits in China using bio-robots paid $1 per hour, selling them online, and shipping them to the consumer, try a different model. You go into a store in suburban Boston, cameras take measurements of your body. A salesman/tailor goes through different options, gives fashion advice, etc. A heavily automated on-site “factory” creates a tailored suit that fits perfectly and is available within 24 hours. Humans make any last-minute alterations, but most of the work is done by machine, and you can get custom, interesting goods for a reasonable price.[/quote]
Another great post, spdrun. FWIW, we still shop at brick-and-mortars whenever possible. We only buy online if it can’t be purchased locally. I don’t understand the desire to paste one’s ass to an office chair all day and never interact with real people, either.
Participant[quote=SK in CV][quote=poorgradstudent]Looks like unemployment is finally starting to catch up in what has been a largely jobless recovery.
[/quote]
Largely jobless? Something like 12 million private sector jobs in the last 5 years, and more than 5.5 million in the last 2 years is jobless?[/quote]
But most of those new jobs are in lower-paying sectors than the ones that disappeared during the recession. It probably feels pretty “jobless” when people are making around half of what they were making just a few years ago. We know a few people who are literally making that much less!
Participant[quote=njtosd][quote=CA renter]
Remember that those who are ahead of science tend to be ridiculed by the current scientific establishment. It doesn’t help anyone’s cause to call those who have a different opinion “idiots” or “conspiracy theorists.” Anecdote almost always precedes science. Those “idiots” just might be right.[/quote]
Remember that those who are ridiculous also tend to be ridiculed by the current scientific establishment. It’s a cost benefit analysis. Yes, there will be a small number of people who are harmed by vaccines. But, overall, unless there are clear contraindications (egg allergy, etc.) being vaccinated is safer than not being vaccinated. For anyone who is interested, all of the reported vaccine adverse events since 1990 are here: http://vaers.hhs.gov/index. (Not sure whether someone else has pointed that out already.) My sister had varicella pneumonia (chicken pox in the lungs) in the 1960s at the age of 4. She was hospitalized where she contracted measles. She recovered, but it was a huge issue. Can’t understand why anyone would risk that.[/quote]
Agree very much with what you’ve said in the bolded part (and why we paid a fair amount of money to buy batches of thimerosal-free vaccines that were separated and then given individually over a longer period of time), but if we know that even a few people might have major reactions to these vaccines, instead of denying the very real experiences of some parents, why not work on a test to determine which children are affected by these vaccines? Just calling these people “idiots” isn’t very convincing.
Participant[quote=zk][quote=CA renter]
If you had talked to these two families, you would probably have a totally different opinion about these “idiots.”[/quote]I wouldn’t. Children with regressive autism sometimes regress rapidly at about the same age that MMR vaccines are given. So there will be many instances where the regression occurs immediately after the vaccine is given. That doesn’t mean the vaccine caused it. Many people in their 80’s have had strokes immediately after drinking a glass of water or watching tv. That doesn’t mean the water or the tv caused it. Ordinary people being 100% convinced of anything because of an anecdote won’t change my mind, especially if large studies have been done contradicting whatever they’re convinced about.
[quote=CA renter]
Remember that those who are ahead of science tend to be ridiculed by the current scientific establishment. It doesn’t help anyone’s cause to call those who have a different opinion “idiots” or “conspiracy theorists.” Anecdote almost always precedes science. Those “idiots” just might be right.[/quote]This is a case commonly made for following non-science. What’s never mentioned (I think it’s scientific illiteracy rather than intentional misdirection) is that for every quack who’s ridiculed by the current scientific establishment and turns out to be right, there are hundreds or thousands who are wrong. For every anecdote that turns out precede science, there are a thousand or a million that don’t.
Science won’t always be right. Almost always, but not always. But when it’s wrong, it’s not afraid to admit it. If it’s afraid to admit it, it’s not science. When new evidence comes out, science deals with it unemotionally and updates the science on the matter. Science is always looking for the truth. The real truth. How many endeavors can you say that about? If you start letting mommy and daddy convince you, clearly there’s emotion in the way of figuring out what really happened. And your odds of being right plummet dramatically.[/quote]
I’m talking about incredibly dramatic and permanent changes happening within ~24 hours after a vaccination. A perfectly normal child becoming totally unresponsive to their own parents and siblings within a day.
There are thousands upon thousands of people who’ve had this very experience. If that doesn’t make you question your “science,” then nothing will.
Believing that you know everything there is to know about the world is idiotic. We must ALWAYS be willing to question our existing beliefs when evidence (even anecdotal) indicates that we just might be wrong.
Participant[quote=scaredyclassic][quote=livinincali][quote=AN]
Which is why I’d say most do political talk/answer and most pander. At the presidential level, I would go as far as saying all.[/quote]This is one of the reasons vaccination conspiracy theories exist. Our government has lost the trust of the citizens and it’s credibility by being caught in telling so many lies. Even if you’re completely enamored with your political party and believe their lies, you still think the other party lies about everything.[/quote]
THIS.
this isnt about vaccinations. vaccinations are justa proxy for a deeper groundswell of mistrust.
yeah its nuts, but people r nuts … this is not about science or vaccinatons even. this is about soem deeper feeling that people feel they have lost control of their lives.
also, since everyone is a special snowflake in this world nowadays, it gives parents a way to “differentiate” themselves…I don’t know. i think its not a rational thing at this point. its past that. you might as well argue witch science in salem in the 1600s.[/quote]
Yes, the government has lied about so much that many people now choose to disbelieve just about any official talking points. And there is good reason to distrust the government. They have used the mentally ill, prisoners, military personnel, public employees, sick patients (especially those who had no family or other people to advocate for them), etc. in a variety of medical experiments over the years. And our entire, for-profit healthcare system is set up in a way that encourages long-term chronic illnesses that need ongoing treatment with very expensive technologies and medicines.
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/medical-slideshow-code/
What’s idiotic is assuming that the government and/or those who profit from a particular theory would be honest about their motives and what they are doing.
We have chosen to vaccinate our children, but we paid extra to buy the MMR vaccines in their individual components. We did this because we had met two families who are 100% convinced that vaccines had caused their childrens’ autism. There is no way someone could listen to their descriptions of what had happened to their children immediately after getting a vaccination and discount it as being “crazy” or “idiotic.” One family was very wealthy, so they could afford the therapist who worked with their child for multiple hours, every single day. Another family was well off enough and had a dedicated mother who had her two kids sleeping in an oxygen chamber every night, in addition to being on a very expensive, complex diet consisting mostly of organic produce (lots of juicing, herbal concoctions, etc.).
If you had talked to these two families, you would probably have a totally different opinion about these “idiots.”
Remember that those who are ahead of science tend to be ridiculed by the current scientific establishment. It doesn’t help anyone’s cause to call those who have a different opinion “idiots” or “conspiracy theorists.” Anecdote almost always precedes science. Those “idiots” just might be right.
Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]Like anything you can bend these stats anyway you want to IMO.
LA is definitely more pricey than SD for what you get.
But in LA city workers make probably close to twice what they do in SD, then you have the studios.
And the list goes on.I would say for a software engineer or self-employed person SD is better than LA as far as what you could afford (I would add San Jose as well), anyway IMO.[/quote]
I watch certain LA neighborhoods as well as some SD neighborhoods that are fairly comparable. It seems to me that you get more for your money in LA, and that’s before taking into account the MUCH better job market up there for anyone who isn’t in biotech and telephony (outside of those two fields, the job market in SD absolutely sucks!).
February 6, 2015 at 1:38 AM in reply to: Opinions on VCAIX Vanguard California Intermediate-Term…. #782670ParticipantI would be very cautious about this. As you know, things can go either way, but as you’ve noted (indirectly), bond yields are at the lower end of the range AND there’s still a fair amount of risk in muni bonds, IMO.
Don’t put yourself in the pensioners’ position! (Yes, I just did that.) Whatever risks you think pensioners are taking, bondholders are taking at least the same risks. Add to that the low interest rates and the fact that stock market and other asset valuations (like real estate) are pretty high — which makes the govt agencies look more flush with cash because they have lower costs/higher revenues for the moment — it just might be better to look at other options for your cash.
Best of luck, flu.
Participant[quote=scaredyclassic]there are no longer any investments. everything is a bet[/quote]
Exactly.
And, BP, it sounds like you’ve done fairly well with your other investments. Personally, I don’t think you should sell guaranteed moneymakers (rental properties that are steadily producing a positive cash flow) for more silver. Just my 2 cents.
Good luck!
ParticipantYou might want to consider consulting with an estate planning attorney and/or a good accountant. Personally, I’d do both just to make sure that all of your bases are covered.
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