[Bugs]

GN,

In reference to my “last 10% Bleeds off” remark.

Up until the beginning of this year, I was in the “long slow decline” camp, meaning I figured the slope of the decline would go to about 45 degree or so and it would take 5 or 6 years from the peak to settle down. In other words, I had projected a 1990s type of decline, albeit from a much higher starting point.

However, the big chuck losses over the last couple months – which caught me by surprise – has now resulted in a correction that has already covered a LOT of ground, pricewise. This rate of decline just isn’t sustainable over the long term for the simple reason that there isn’t enough gas to burn off to last that entire time period. Just as trees don’t grow to the sky the leaves can’t fall below ground level.

So instead of the Japan-style bleed off that takes several years, I have now come to the conclusion that if this current trend continues we might be looking at a downcycle that more closely resembles a “U” where the downstroke occurs quickly and the extended bottom bleeds off the rest over time.

I suppose we could get a bigger dead-cat bounce this spring, followed by a more moderate decline; or perhaps a series of more radical bounce-decline jogs on the way down.

I think a lot will depend on what happens over the next 3 or 4 months. If there is going to be a significant bounce then it follows that it will take longer to clear the suckers out. If the spring bounce is as weak this year as it was last year then I think 2008 will end up being the big year for declines. That’s because by the time you whack another 20% off the current prices you’re going to be getting within range of some of the rents.

And yes, I agree with the poster above (sorry, I forgot who it was) who said rents might decline, thereby moving that buy point even lower. The examples I used above were just for illustration; they weren’t intended to be a prediction of timing. I’ve learned my lesson on that one, thank you.

[Bugs]

GN,

In reference to my “last 10% Bleeds off” remark.

Up until the beginning of this year, I was in the “long slow decline” camp, meaning I figured the slope of the decline would go to about 45 degree or so and it would take 5 or 6 years from the peak to settle down. In other words, I had projected a 1990s type of decline, albeit from a much higher starting point.

However, the big chuck losses over the last couple months – which caught me by surprise – has now resulted in a correction that has already covered a LOT of ground, pricewise. This rate of decline just isn’t sustainable over the long term for the simple reason that there isn’t enough gas to burn off to last that entire time period. Just as trees don’t grow to the sky the leaves can’t fall below ground level.

So instead of the Japan-style bleed off that takes several years, I have now come to the conclusion that if this current trend continues we might be looking at a downcycle that more closely resembles a “U” where the downstroke occurs quickly and the extended bottom bleeds off the rest over time.

I suppose we could get a bigger dead-cat bounce this spring, followed by a more moderate decline; or perhaps a series of more radical bounce-decline jogs on the way down.

I think a lot will depend on what happens over the next 3 or 4 months. If there is going to be a significant bounce then it follows that it will take longer to clear the suckers out. If the spring bounce is as weak this year as it was last year then I think 2008 will end up being the big year for declines. That’s because by the time you whack another 20% off the current prices you’re going to be getting within range of some of the rents.

And yes, I agree with the poster above (sorry, I forgot who it was) who said rents might decline, thereby moving that buy point even lower. The examples I used above were just for illustration; they weren’t intended to be a prediction of timing. I’ve learned my lesson on that one, thank you.

[Bugs]

GN,

In reference to my “last 10% Bleeds off” remark.

Up until the beginning of this year, I was in the “long slow decline” camp, meaning I figured the slope of the decline would go to about 45 degree or so and it would take 5 or 6 years from the peak to settle down. In other words, I had projected a 1990s type of decline, albeit from a much higher starting point.

However, the big chuck losses over the last couple months – which caught me by surprise – has now resulted in a correction that has already covered a LOT of ground, pricewise. This rate of decline just isn’t sustainable over the long term for the simple reason that there isn’t enough gas to burn off to last that entire time period. Just as trees don’t grow to the sky the leaves can’t fall below ground level.

So instead of the Japan-style bleed off that takes several years, I have now come to the conclusion that if this current trend continues we might be looking at a downcycle that more closely resembles a “U” where the downstroke occurs quickly and the extended bottom bleeds off the rest over time.

I suppose we could get a bigger dead-cat bounce this spring, followed by a more moderate decline; or perhaps a series of more radical bounce-decline jogs on the way down.

I think a lot will depend on what happens over the next 3 or 4 months. If there is going to be a significant bounce then it follows that it will take longer to clear the suckers out. If the spring bounce is as weak this year as it was last year then I think 2008 will end up being the big year for declines. That’s because by the time you whack another 20% off the current prices you’re going to be getting within range of some of the rents.

And yes, I agree with the poster above (sorry, I forgot who it was) who said rents might decline, thereby moving that buy point even lower. The examples I used above were just for illustration; they weren’t intended to be a prediction of timing. I’ve learned my lesson on that one, thank you.

[Bugs]

GN,

In reference to my “last 10% Bleeds off” remark.

Up until the beginning of this year, I was in the “long slow decline” camp, meaning I figured the slope of the decline would go to about 45 degree or so and it would take 5 or 6 years from the peak to settle down. In other words, I had projected a 1990s type of decline, albeit from a much higher starting point.

However, the big chuck losses over the last couple months – which caught me by surprise – has now resulted in a correction that has already covered a LOT of ground, pricewise. This rate of decline just isn’t sustainable over the long term for the simple reason that there isn’t enough gas to burn off to last that entire time period. Just as trees don’t grow to the sky the leaves can’t fall below ground level.

So instead of the Japan-style bleed off that takes several years, I have now come to the conclusion that if this current trend continues we might be looking at a downcycle that more closely resembles a “U” where the downstroke occurs quickly and the extended bottom bleeds off the rest over time.

I suppose we could get a bigger dead-cat bounce this spring, followed by a more moderate decline; or perhaps a series of more radical bounce-decline jogs on the way down.

I think a lot will depend on what happens over the next 3 or 4 months. If there is going to be a significant bounce then it follows that it will take longer to clear the suckers out. If the spring bounce is as weak this year as it was last year then I think 2008 will end up being the big year for declines. That’s because by the time you whack another 20% off the current prices you’re going to be getting within range of some of the rents.

And yes, I agree with the poster above (sorry, I forgot who it was) who said rents might decline, thereby moving that buy point even lower. The examples I used above were just for illustration; they weren’t intended to be a prediction of timing. I’ve learned my lesson on that one, thank you.

[Bugs]

GN,

In reference to my “last 10% Bleeds off” remark.

Up until the beginning of this year, I was in the “long slow decline” camp, meaning I figured the slope of the decline would go to about 45 degree or so and it would take 5 or 6 years from the peak to settle down. In other words, I had projected a 1990s type of decline, albeit from a much higher starting point.

However, the big chuck losses over the last couple months – which caught me by surprise – has now resulted in a correction that has already covered a LOT of ground, pricewise. This rate of decline just isn’t sustainable over the long term for the simple reason that there isn’t enough gas to burn off to last that entire time period. Just as trees don’t grow to the sky the leaves can’t fall below ground level.

So instead of the Japan-style bleed off that takes several years, I have now come to the conclusion that if this current trend continues we might be looking at a downcycle that more closely resembles a “U” where the downstroke occurs quickly and the extended bottom bleeds off the rest over time.

I suppose we could get a bigger dead-cat bounce this spring, followed by a more moderate decline; or perhaps a series of more radical bounce-decline jogs on the way down.

I think a lot will depend on what happens over the next 3 or 4 months. If there is going to be a significant bounce then it follows that it will take longer to clear the suckers out. If the spring bounce is as weak this year as it was last year then I think 2008 will end up being the big year for declines. That’s because by the time you whack another 20% off the current prices you’re going to be getting within range of some of the rents.

And yes, I agree with the poster above (sorry, I forgot who it was) who said rents might decline, thereby moving that buy point even lower. The examples I used above were just for illustration; they weren’t intended to be a prediction of timing. I’ve learned my lesson on that one, thank you.

[Bugs]

I’ve seen a good number of listings that were REOs but were not advertised that way. Some of those included a clue about a motivated seller, but others didn’t.

That’s one advantage to checking the current ownership on every listing. It’s time consuming, but it does have results.

[Bugs]

I’ve seen a good number of listings that were REOs but were not advertised that way. Some of those included a clue about a motivated seller, but others didn’t.

That’s one advantage to checking the current ownership on every listing. It’s time consuming, but it does have results.

[Bugs]

I’ve seen a good number of listings that were REOs but were not advertised that way. Some of those included a clue about a motivated seller, but others didn’t.

That’s one advantage to checking the current ownership on every listing. It’s time consuming, but it does have results.

[Bugs]

I’ve seen a good number of listings that were REOs but were not advertised that way. Some of those included a clue about a motivated seller, but others didn’t.

That’s one advantage to checking the current ownership on every listing. It’s time consuming, but it does have results.

[Bugs]

I’ve seen a good number of listings that were REOs but were not advertised that way. Some of those included a clue about a motivated seller, but others didn’t.

That’s one advantage to checking the current ownership on every listing. It’s time consuming, but it does have results.

[Bugs]

The attribute about the Piggs that should stand out is not their predominant bearishness at this point, but their willingness to look forward. To analyze with our heads rather than our hearts.

We were able to predict what would eventually happen because we were willing to project the then-current trends to their logical conclusions. That trait shouldn’t end just because that end of the economic cycle ended.

I’m now hoping that when the reasonable opportunities finally do present themselves that those Piggs who are so inclined will be fully prepared to commit. Mentally as well as financially. I don’t think the time to start preparing for those opportunities is when the market bottoms out – I think you guys want to start getting your stuff together now, well in advance.

Another thing I’m trying to point out is that, just as sdr has been saying all along, most of the deals that come up between now and the midpoint of the next upcycle will be not be the properties that qualify as your dream house. The people who hold the truly great properties will tend to be those who are best prepared to hold them; they mostly won’t be the most marginal sellers who are forced to sell.

In order to recognize the opportunities that will come up you’ll want to orient your expectations as to what those opportunities will really look like. If you’re trying to get into the primo properties at the best discount I think you’re going to have to work your ass off and have a little luck on your side. I think you’ll have a lot of really savvy competition for those properties when they finally do come up, and you’ll have to be prepared to both commit to and execute those purchase decisions. That won’t happen if you’re at all uncertain about what you’re doing.

There’s no question that because of what some of you are looking for you’re going to have to wait until the bitter end before your target market gets to that inflection point. I think your window of opportunity will be briefest of all. However, for every legitimate $800k buyer, there are a dozen $400k buyers, and I think those folks will have a lot more choices in general so long as they keep an open mind.

I’m no realty agent and selling isn’t my thing, so I think it’s okay for me to say (without getting blasted) that being a bear is appropriate when there’s a lot of risk involved. It’s not so smart when the risks drop to bearable levels. Pun intended.

BTW, I was way too early on the timing of the bust, so I freely admit that the same possibility exists for my timing on this, too. Everyone needs to make their own decisions on this based on their own process.

[Bugs]

The attribute about the Piggs that should stand out is not their predominant bearishness at this point, but their willingness to look forward. To analyze with our heads rather than our hearts.

We were able to predict what would eventually happen because we were willing to project the then-current trends to their logical conclusions. That trait shouldn’t end just because that end of the economic cycle ended.

I’m now hoping that when the reasonable opportunities finally do present themselves that those Piggs who are so inclined will be fully prepared to commit. Mentally as well as financially. I don’t think the time to start preparing for those opportunities is when the market bottoms out – I think you guys want to start getting your stuff together now, well in advance.

Another thing I’m trying to point out is that, just as sdr has been saying all along, most of the deals that come up between now and the midpoint of the next upcycle will be not be the properties that qualify as your dream house. The people who hold the truly great properties will tend to be those who are best prepared to hold them; they mostly won’t be the most marginal sellers who are forced to sell.

In order to recognize the opportunities that will come up you’ll want to orient your expectations as to what those opportunities will really look like. If you’re trying to get into the primo properties at the best discount I think you’re going to have to work your ass off and have a little luck on your side. I think you’ll have a lot of really savvy competition for those properties when they finally do come up, and you’ll have to be prepared to both commit to and execute those purchase decisions. That won’t happen if you’re at all uncertain about what you’re doing.

There’s no question that because of what some of you are looking for you’re going to have to wait until the bitter end before your target market gets to that inflection point. I think your window of opportunity will be briefest of all. However, for every legitimate $800k buyer, there are a dozen $400k buyers, and I think those folks will have a lot more choices in general so long as they keep an open mind.

I’m no realty agent and selling isn’t my thing, so I think it’s okay for me to say (without getting blasted) that being a bear is appropriate when there’s a lot of risk involved. It’s not so smart when the risks drop to bearable levels. Pun intended.

BTW, I was way too early on the timing of the bust, so I freely admit that the same possibility exists for my timing on this, too. Everyone needs to make their own decisions on this based on their own process.

[Bugs]

The attribute about the Piggs that should stand out is not their predominant bearishness at this point, but their willingness to look forward. To analyze with our heads rather than our hearts.

We were able to predict what would eventually happen because we were willing to project the then-current trends to their logical conclusions. That trait shouldn’t end just because that end of the economic cycle ended.

I’m now hoping that when the reasonable opportunities finally do present themselves that those Piggs who are so inclined will be fully prepared to commit. Mentally as well as financially. I don’t think the time to start preparing for those opportunities is when the market bottoms out – I think you guys want to start getting your stuff together now, well in advance.

Another thing I’m trying to point out is that, just as sdr has been saying all along, most of the deals that come up between now and the midpoint of the next upcycle will be not be the properties that qualify as your dream house. The people who hold the truly great properties will tend to be those who are best prepared to hold them; they mostly won’t be the most marginal sellers who are forced to sell.

In order to recognize the opportunities that will come up you’ll want to orient your expectations as to what those opportunities will really look like. If you’re trying to get into the primo properties at the best discount I think you’re going to have to work your ass off and have a little luck on your side. I think you’ll have a lot of really savvy competition for those properties when they finally do come up, and you’ll have to be prepared to both commit to and execute those purchase decisions. That won’t happen if you’re at all uncertain about what you’re doing.

There’s no question that because of what some of you are looking for you’re going to have to wait until the bitter end before your target market gets to that inflection point. I think your window of opportunity will be briefest of all. However, for every legitimate $800k buyer, there are a dozen $400k buyers, and I think those folks will have a lot more choices in general so long as they keep an open mind.

I’m no realty agent and selling isn’t my thing, so I think it’s okay for me to say (without getting blasted) that being a bear is appropriate when there’s a lot of risk involved. It’s not so smart when the risks drop to bearable levels. Pun intended.

BTW, I was way too early on the timing of the bust, so I freely admit that the same possibility exists for my timing on this, too. Everyone needs to make their own decisions on this based on their own process.

[Bugs]

The attribute about the Piggs that should stand out is not their predominant bearishness at this point, but their willingness to look forward. To analyze with our heads rather than our hearts.

We were able to predict what would eventually happen because we were willing to project the then-current trends to their logical conclusions. That trait shouldn’t end just because that end of the economic cycle ended.

I’m now hoping that when the reasonable opportunities finally do present themselves that those Piggs who are so inclined will be fully prepared to commit. Mentally as well as financially. I don’t think the time to start preparing for those opportunities is when the market bottoms out – I think you guys want to start getting your stuff together now, well in advance.

Another thing I’m trying to point out is that, just as sdr has been saying all along, most of the deals that come up between now and the midpoint of the next upcycle will be not be the properties that qualify as your dream house. The people who hold the truly great properties will tend to be those who are best prepared to hold them; they mostly won’t be the most marginal sellers who are forced to sell.

In order to recognize the opportunities that will come up you’ll want to orient your expectations as to what those opportunities will really look like. If you’re trying to get into the primo properties at the best discount I think you’re going to have to work your ass off and have a little luck on your side. I think you’ll have a lot of really savvy competition for those properties when they finally do come up, and you’ll have to be prepared to both commit to and execute those purchase decisions. That won’t happen if you’re at all uncertain about what you’re doing.

There’s no question that because of what some of you are looking for you’re going to have to wait until the bitter end before your target market gets to that inflection point. I think your window of opportunity will be briefest of all. However, for every legitimate $800k buyer, there are a dozen $400k buyers, and I think those folks will have a lot more choices in general so long as they keep an open mind.

I’m no realty agent and selling isn’t my thing, so I think it’s okay for me to say (without getting blasted) that being a bear is appropriate when there’s a lot of risk involved. It’s not so smart when the risks drop to bearable levels. Pun intended.

BTW, I was way too early on the timing of the bust, so I freely admit that the same possibility exists for my timing on this, too. Everyone needs to make their own decisions on this based on their own process.

[Bugs]

The attribute about the Piggs that should stand out is not their predominant bearishness at this point, but their willingness to look forward. To analyze with our heads rather than our hearts.

We were able to predict what would eventually happen because we were willing to project the then-current trends to their logical conclusions. That trait shouldn’t end just because that end of the economic cycle ended.

I’m now hoping that when the reasonable opportunities finally do present themselves that those Piggs who are so inclined will be fully prepared to commit. Mentally as well as financially. I don’t think the time to start preparing for those opportunities is when the market bottoms out – I think you guys want to start getting your stuff together now, well in advance.

Another thing I’m trying to point out is that, just as sdr has been saying all along, most of the deals that come up between now and the midpoint of the next upcycle will be not be the properties that qualify as your dream house. The people who hold the truly great properties will tend to be those who are best prepared to hold them; they mostly won’t be the most marginal sellers who are forced to sell.

In order to recognize the opportunities that will come up you’ll want to orient your expectations as to what those opportunities will really look like. If you’re trying to get into the primo properties at the best discount I think you’re going to have to work your ass off and have a little luck on your side. I think you’ll have a lot of really savvy competition for those properties when they finally do come up, and you’ll have to be prepared to both commit to and execute those purchase decisions. That won’t happen if you’re at all uncertain about what you’re doing.

There’s no question that because of what some of you are looking for you’re going to have to wait until the bitter end before your target market gets to that inflection point. I think your window of opportunity will be briefest of all. However, for every legitimate $800k buyer, there are a dozen $400k buyers, and I think those folks will have a lot more choices in general so long as they keep an open mind.

I’m no realty agent and selling isn’t my thing, so I think it’s okay for me to say (without getting blasted) that being a bear is appropriate when there’s a lot of risk involved. It’s not so smart when the risks drop to bearable levels. Pun intended.

BTW, I was way too early on the timing of the bust, so I freely admit that the same possibility exists for my timing on this, too. Everyone needs to make their own decisions on this based on their own process.

[Author]

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