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March 10, 2008 at 3:10 PM in reply to: Orange County and San Diego flagged as “fairly valued” #166931March 10, 2008 at 3:10 PM in reply to: Orange County and San Diego flagged as “fairly valued” #167249
Bugs
ParticipantThere’s a reason Rich’s trendline analyses start back in 1976 and why they’re tied to the historical trends for wages and population as well as the prices themselves. The problem with looking at the pricing and including the recent spike is that it requires assuming that spike was a typical variation rather than a one-time gross distortion.
That’s why it skews the “should-be” indicator up a lot farther than it should. If the current pricing is within 1% of what it should be, that means that after excluding the $1,000,000+ luxury condos with the waterfront and penthouse locations, the average sales price of $328,000 for all remaining condos countywide is justified. The reality is that with a 5% downpayment it still takes a $102,000 household income to support that average, and that’s about $30,000/year higher than where wages really are.
March 10, 2008 at 3:10 PM in reply to: Orange County and San Diego flagged as “fairly valued” #167255Bugs
ParticipantThere’s a reason Rich’s trendline analyses start back in 1976 and why they’re tied to the historical trends for wages and population as well as the prices themselves. The problem with looking at the pricing and including the recent spike is that it requires assuming that spike was a typical variation rather than a one-time gross distortion.
That’s why it skews the “should-be” indicator up a lot farther than it should. If the current pricing is within 1% of what it should be, that means that after excluding the $1,000,000+ luxury condos with the waterfront and penthouse locations, the average sales price of $328,000 for all remaining condos countywide is justified. The reality is that with a 5% downpayment it still takes a $102,000 household income to support that average, and that’s about $30,000/year higher than where wages really are.
March 10, 2008 at 3:10 PM in reply to: Orange County and San Diego flagged as “fairly valued” #167288Bugs
ParticipantThere’s a reason Rich’s trendline analyses start back in 1976 and why they’re tied to the historical trends for wages and population as well as the prices themselves. The problem with looking at the pricing and including the recent spike is that it requires assuming that spike was a typical variation rather than a one-time gross distortion.
That’s why it skews the “should-be” indicator up a lot farther than it should. If the current pricing is within 1% of what it should be, that means that after excluding the $1,000,000+ luxury condos with the waterfront and penthouse locations, the average sales price of $328,000 for all remaining condos countywide is justified. The reality is that with a 5% downpayment it still takes a $102,000 household income to support that average, and that’s about $30,000/year higher than where wages really are.
March 10, 2008 at 3:10 PM in reply to: Orange County and San Diego flagged as “fairly valued” #167351Bugs
ParticipantThere’s a reason Rich’s trendline analyses start back in 1976 and why they’re tied to the historical trends for wages and population as well as the prices themselves. The problem with looking at the pricing and including the recent spike is that it requires assuming that spike was a typical variation rather than a one-time gross distortion.
That’s why it skews the “should-be” indicator up a lot farther than it should. If the current pricing is within 1% of what it should be, that means that after excluding the $1,000,000+ luxury condos with the waterfront and penthouse locations, the average sales price of $328,000 for all remaining condos countywide is justified. The reality is that with a 5% downpayment it still takes a $102,000 household income to support that average, and that’s about $30,000/year higher than where wages really are.
Bugs
ParticipantWishful thinking. The number of spectators at the open houses don’t become relevant until they start putting up the downpayments and the wage/employment histories it takes to buy at these prices. These spectators apparently aren’t doing that, and its quite likely than many of them can’t do it. And even the ones who can do it appear to be smart enough to not do it.
The number of sales don’t lie, and neither do the price declines. These bulls can’t sell the golden dream of a home being more than shelter when those properties are dropping in value by the month.
A lot of these agents might as well withhold their advertising revenues. The homes that are selling right now probably aren’t the ones being advertised in the paper.
Bugs
ParticipantWishful thinking. The number of spectators at the open houses don’t become relevant until they start putting up the downpayments and the wage/employment histories it takes to buy at these prices. These spectators apparently aren’t doing that, and its quite likely than many of them can’t do it. And even the ones who can do it appear to be smart enough to not do it.
The number of sales don’t lie, and neither do the price declines. These bulls can’t sell the golden dream of a home being more than shelter when those properties are dropping in value by the month.
A lot of these agents might as well withhold their advertising revenues. The homes that are selling right now probably aren’t the ones being advertised in the paper.
Bugs
ParticipantWishful thinking. The number of spectators at the open houses don’t become relevant until they start putting up the downpayments and the wage/employment histories it takes to buy at these prices. These spectators apparently aren’t doing that, and its quite likely than many of them can’t do it. And even the ones who can do it appear to be smart enough to not do it.
The number of sales don’t lie, and neither do the price declines. These bulls can’t sell the golden dream of a home being more than shelter when those properties are dropping in value by the month.
A lot of these agents might as well withhold their advertising revenues. The homes that are selling right now probably aren’t the ones being advertised in the paper.
Bugs
ParticipantWishful thinking. The number of spectators at the open houses don’t become relevant until they start putting up the downpayments and the wage/employment histories it takes to buy at these prices. These spectators apparently aren’t doing that, and its quite likely than many of them can’t do it. And even the ones who can do it appear to be smart enough to not do it.
The number of sales don’t lie, and neither do the price declines. These bulls can’t sell the golden dream of a home being more than shelter when those properties are dropping in value by the month.
A lot of these agents might as well withhold their advertising revenues. The homes that are selling right now probably aren’t the ones being advertised in the paper.
Bugs
ParticipantWishful thinking. The number of spectators at the open houses don’t become relevant until they start putting up the downpayments and the wage/employment histories it takes to buy at these prices. These spectators apparently aren’t doing that, and its quite likely than many of them can’t do it. And even the ones who can do it appear to be smart enough to not do it.
The number of sales don’t lie, and neither do the price declines. These bulls can’t sell the golden dream of a home being more than shelter when those properties are dropping in value by the month.
A lot of these agents might as well withhold their advertising revenues. The homes that are selling right now probably aren’t the ones being advertised in the paper.
Bugs
ParticipantYour cash will buy a lot more house a year from now.
Bugs
ParticipantYour cash will buy a lot more house a year from now.
Bugs
ParticipantYour cash will buy a lot more house a year from now.
Bugs
ParticipantYour cash will buy a lot more house a year from now.
Bugs
ParticipantYour cash will buy a lot more house a year from now.
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