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ParticipantSorry, but I just don’t see how the one number flattening can be considered indicative of anything.
This is another example of the folly of comparing the two datasets against each other as if they’re the same. They aren’t.
The gross number of all sellers is more or less stable, but the number of compelled-to-sell is increasing every month. The sellers who have left are those discretionary sellers who weren’t selling anything last year anyway.
This is happening against the backdrop of a declining rate of sales. If anything, the current supply/demand dynamic looks a lot worse now than it did last year.
What you’re looking for is an increase in the number of buyers against an equally decreasing number of sellers. Even when that happens it’s going to take a while. This aircraft carrier is not going to turn on a dime.
ParticipantSorry, but I just don’t see how the one number flattening can be considered indicative of anything.
This is another example of the folly of comparing the two datasets against each other as if they’re the same. They aren’t.
The gross number of all sellers is more or less stable, but the number of compelled-to-sell is increasing every month. The sellers who have left are those discretionary sellers who weren’t selling anything last year anyway.
This is happening against the backdrop of a declining rate of sales. If anything, the current supply/demand dynamic looks a lot worse now than it did last year.
What you’re looking for is an increase in the number of buyers against an equally decreasing number of sellers. Even when that happens it’s going to take a while. This aircraft carrier is not going to turn on a dime.
ParticipantSorry, but I just don’t see how the one number flattening can be considered indicative of anything.
This is another example of the folly of comparing the two datasets against each other as if they’re the same. They aren’t.
The gross number of all sellers is more or less stable, but the number of compelled-to-sell is increasing every month. The sellers who have left are those discretionary sellers who weren’t selling anything last year anyway.
This is happening against the backdrop of a declining rate of sales. If anything, the current supply/demand dynamic looks a lot worse now than it did last year.
What you’re looking for is an increase in the number of buyers against an equally decreasing number of sellers. Even when that happens it’s going to take a while. This aircraft carrier is not going to turn on a dime.
ParticipantSorry, but I just don’t see how the one number flattening can be considered indicative of anything.
This is another example of the folly of comparing the two datasets against each other as if they’re the same. They aren’t.
The gross number of all sellers is more or less stable, but the number of compelled-to-sell is increasing every month. The sellers who have left are those discretionary sellers who weren’t selling anything last year anyway.
This is happening against the backdrop of a declining rate of sales. If anything, the current supply/demand dynamic looks a lot worse now than it did last year.
What you’re looking for is an increase in the number of buyers against an equally decreasing number of sellers. Even when that happens it’s going to take a while. This aircraft carrier is not going to turn on a dime.
ParticipantS2Buy
You’re trying too hard here.
1st Qtr 2007 – 3,939 sales of SFRs through the MLS
1st Qtr 2008 – 2,880 sales of SFRs thruogh the MLSWe’re racking up less than 1,000 closed sales per month so far.
Current Number of Actives – 12,512
Current Number of Pendings – 3,577
Total number of both – 16,089Total sales of SFRs through the MLS in 2007 – 15,443
Do the math – we now have more than 12 months of inventory on tap and we’re just a hair’s breadth away from having more REOs coming into the inventory than the total number of sales going out.
We’re so far from stabilizing that we can’t even see the tunnel yet, let along the light at the end of it.
ParticipantS2Buy
You’re trying too hard here.
1st Qtr 2007 – 3,939 sales of SFRs through the MLS
1st Qtr 2008 – 2,880 sales of SFRs thruogh the MLSWe’re racking up less than 1,000 closed sales per month so far.
Current Number of Actives – 12,512
Current Number of Pendings – 3,577
Total number of both – 16,089Total sales of SFRs through the MLS in 2007 – 15,443
Do the math – we now have more than 12 months of inventory on tap and we’re just a hair’s breadth away from having more REOs coming into the inventory than the total number of sales going out.
We’re so far from stabilizing that we can’t even see the tunnel yet, let along the light at the end of it.
ParticipantS2Buy
You’re trying too hard here.
1st Qtr 2007 – 3,939 sales of SFRs through the MLS
1st Qtr 2008 – 2,880 sales of SFRs thruogh the MLSWe’re racking up less than 1,000 closed sales per month so far.
Current Number of Actives – 12,512
Current Number of Pendings – 3,577
Total number of both – 16,089Total sales of SFRs through the MLS in 2007 – 15,443
Do the math – we now have more than 12 months of inventory on tap and we’re just a hair’s breadth away from having more REOs coming into the inventory than the total number of sales going out.
We’re so far from stabilizing that we can’t even see the tunnel yet, let along the light at the end of it.
ParticipantS2Buy
You’re trying too hard here.
1st Qtr 2007 – 3,939 sales of SFRs through the MLS
1st Qtr 2008 – 2,880 sales of SFRs thruogh the MLSWe’re racking up less than 1,000 closed sales per month so far.
Current Number of Actives – 12,512
Current Number of Pendings – 3,577
Total number of both – 16,089Total sales of SFRs through the MLS in 2007 – 15,443
Do the math – we now have more than 12 months of inventory on tap and we’re just a hair’s breadth away from having more REOs coming into the inventory than the total number of sales going out.
We’re so far from stabilizing that we can’t even see the tunnel yet, let along the light at the end of it.
ParticipantS2Buy
You’re trying too hard here.
1st Qtr 2007 – 3,939 sales of SFRs through the MLS
1st Qtr 2008 – 2,880 sales of SFRs thruogh the MLSWe’re racking up less than 1,000 closed sales per month so far.
Current Number of Actives – 12,512
Current Number of Pendings – 3,577
Total number of both – 16,089Total sales of SFRs through the MLS in 2007 – 15,443
Do the math – we now have more than 12 months of inventory on tap and we’re just a hair’s breadth away from having more REOs coming into the inventory than the total number of sales going out.
We’re so far from stabilizing that we can’t even see the tunnel yet, let along the light at the end of it.
ParticipantThe almost unspoken premise of the article is that the damage is contained and that the underlying fundamentals will be okay once we get past these foreclosures.
Foreclosures are hitting the bottom end harder at this point. Measuring them would tend to show a much lower median price because they’re concentrated on the bottom end of the market. There aren’t as many foreclosures in the upper price ranges so when surveying the average of all “market” transactions so you would naturally include the much higher percentage of the bigger/better properties.
It’s no wonder there’s a gap between the two – they’re comparing the smaller/less desireable homes to the larger/more desireable homes. It’s genius, I tell you, genius. Add in a little “Alan” speak from Mssrs Gin and Nevin and we get the 2008 version of the “Soft Landing” fantasy.
There is no “two-market” scenario on the bottom end because the foreclosures are driving that entire market. Morons.
ParticipantThe almost unspoken premise of the article is that the damage is contained and that the underlying fundamentals will be okay once we get past these foreclosures.
Foreclosures are hitting the bottom end harder at this point. Measuring them would tend to show a much lower median price because they’re concentrated on the bottom end of the market. There aren’t as many foreclosures in the upper price ranges so when surveying the average of all “market” transactions so you would naturally include the much higher percentage of the bigger/better properties.
It’s no wonder there’s a gap between the two – they’re comparing the smaller/less desireable homes to the larger/more desireable homes. It’s genius, I tell you, genius. Add in a little “Alan” speak from Mssrs Gin and Nevin and we get the 2008 version of the “Soft Landing” fantasy.
There is no “two-market” scenario on the bottom end because the foreclosures are driving that entire market. Morons.
ParticipantThe almost unspoken premise of the article is that the damage is contained and that the underlying fundamentals will be okay once we get past these foreclosures.
Foreclosures are hitting the bottom end harder at this point. Measuring them would tend to show a much lower median price because they’re concentrated on the bottom end of the market. There aren’t as many foreclosures in the upper price ranges so when surveying the average of all “market” transactions so you would naturally include the much higher percentage of the bigger/better properties.
It’s no wonder there’s a gap between the two – they’re comparing the smaller/less desireable homes to the larger/more desireable homes. It’s genius, I tell you, genius. Add in a little “Alan” speak from Mssrs Gin and Nevin and we get the 2008 version of the “Soft Landing” fantasy.
There is no “two-market” scenario on the bottom end because the foreclosures are driving that entire market. Morons.
ParticipantThe almost unspoken premise of the article is that the damage is contained and that the underlying fundamentals will be okay once we get past these foreclosures.
Foreclosures are hitting the bottom end harder at this point. Measuring them would tend to show a much lower median price because they’re concentrated on the bottom end of the market. There aren’t as many foreclosures in the upper price ranges so when surveying the average of all “market” transactions so you would naturally include the much higher percentage of the bigger/better properties.
It’s no wonder there’s a gap between the two – they’re comparing the smaller/less desireable homes to the larger/more desireable homes. It’s genius, I tell you, genius. Add in a little “Alan” speak from Mssrs Gin and Nevin and we get the 2008 version of the “Soft Landing” fantasy.
There is no “two-market” scenario on the bottom end because the foreclosures are driving that entire market. Morons.
ParticipantThe almost unspoken premise of the article is that the damage is contained and that the underlying fundamentals will be okay once we get past these foreclosures.
Foreclosures are hitting the bottom end harder at this point. Measuring them would tend to show a much lower median price because they’re concentrated on the bottom end of the market. There aren’t as many foreclosures in the upper price ranges so when surveying the average of all “market” transactions so you would naturally include the much higher percentage of the bigger/better properties.
It’s no wonder there’s a gap between the two – they’re comparing the smaller/less desireable homes to the larger/more desireable homes. It’s genius, I tell you, genius. Add in a little “Alan” speak from Mssrs Gin and Nevin and we get the 2008 version of the “Soft Landing” fantasy.
There is no “two-market” scenario on the bottom end because the foreclosures are driving that entire market. Morons.
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