[Bugs]

Oversupply is oversupply, whether the overhang is 3x as many as we have buyers for or 6x, the result is the same.

Buyers have options, one of which is to continue renting. The banks really don’t have options. They’re competing with each other for the limited numbers of buyers at these prices. Once the pricing drops to a rent equivalency those renters who can qualify will start jumping in. Once the prices drop below rent equivalency the long term investors will jump in.

Incidentally, a 4 year supply of homes puts us at 2012 before things stabilize. That’s a mite longer than what a lot of the bear pundits have been saying but it’s by no means extreme.

[Bugs]

Oversupply is oversupply, whether the overhang is 3x as many as we have buyers for or 6x, the result is the same.

Buyers have options, one of which is to continue renting. The banks really don’t have options. They’re competing with each other for the limited numbers of buyers at these prices. Once the pricing drops to a rent equivalency those renters who can qualify will start jumping in. Once the prices drop below rent equivalency the long term investors will jump in.

Incidentally, a 4 year supply of homes puts us at 2012 before things stabilize. That’s a mite longer than what a lot of the bear pundits have been saying but it’s by no means extreme.

[Bugs]

Oversupply is oversupply, whether the overhang is 3x as many as we have buyers for or 6x, the result is the same.

Buyers have options, one of which is to continue renting. The banks really don’t have options. They’re competing with each other for the limited numbers of buyers at these prices. Once the pricing drops to a rent equivalency those renters who can qualify will start jumping in. Once the prices drop below rent equivalency the long term investors will jump in.

Incidentally, a 4 year supply of homes puts us at 2012 before things stabilize. That’s a mite longer than what a lot of the bear pundits have been saying but it’s by no means extreme.

[Bugs]

Oversupply is oversupply, whether the overhang is 3x as many as we have buyers for or 6x, the result is the same.

Buyers have options, one of which is to continue renting. The banks really don’t have options. They’re competing with each other for the limited numbers of buyers at these prices. Once the pricing drops to a rent equivalency those renters who can qualify will start jumping in. Once the prices drop below rent equivalency the long term investors will jump in.

Incidentally, a 4 year supply of homes puts us at 2012 before things stabilize. That’s a mite longer than what a lot of the bear pundits have been saying but it’s by no means extreme.

[Bugs]

Oversupply is oversupply, whether the overhang is 3x as many as we have buyers for or 6x, the result is the same.

Buyers have options, one of which is to continue renting. The banks really don’t have options. They’re competing with each other for the limited numbers of buyers at these prices. Once the pricing drops to a rent equivalency those renters who can qualify will start jumping in. Once the prices drop below rent equivalency the long term investors will jump in.

Incidentally, a 4 year supply of homes puts us at 2012 before things stabilize. That’s a mite longer than what a lot of the bear pundits have been saying but it’s by no means extreme.

[Bugs]

Based on my experience during the last bust as well as what I’m seeing in this bust, I am of the opinion that the foreclosures don’t start driving the pricing until they pass 25% or 30% of the total sales. Once that happens the lenders start competing with each other instead of with the discretionary sellers. That’s when they get more agressive in their discounting.

We’re obviously not at that point yet, but I’m pretty confident we’ll get there within the next year or so.

[Bugs]

Based on my experience during the last bust as well as what I’m seeing in this bust, I am of the opinion that the foreclosures don’t start driving the pricing until they pass 25% or 30% of the total sales. Once that happens the lenders start competing with each other instead of with the discretionary sellers. That’s when they get more agressive in their discounting.

We’re obviously not at that point yet, but I’m pretty confident we’ll get there within the next year or so.

[Bugs]

Based on my experience during the last bust as well as what I’m seeing in this bust, I am of the opinion that the foreclosures don’t start driving the pricing until they pass 25% or 30% of the total sales. Once that happens the lenders start competing with each other instead of with the discretionary sellers. That’s when they get more agressive in their discounting.

We’re obviously not at that point yet, but I’m pretty confident we’ll get there within the next year or so.

[Bugs]

Based on my experience during the last bust as well as what I’m seeing in this bust, I am of the opinion that the foreclosures don’t start driving the pricing until they pass 25% or 30% of the total sales. Once that happens the lenders start competing with each other instead of with the discretionary sellers. That’s when they get more agressive in their discounting.

We’re obviously not at that point yet, but I’m pretty confident we’ll get there within the next year or so.

[Bugs]

Based on my experience during the last bust as well as what I’m seeing in this bust, I am of the opinion that the foreclosures don’t start driving the pricing until they pass 25% or 30% of the total sales. Once that happens the lenders start competing with each other instead of with the discretionary sellers. That’s when they get more agressive in their discounting.

We’re obviously not at that point yet, but I’m pretty confident we’ll get there within the next year or so.

[Bugs]

The MLS reports that there were 32 sales of LJ homes in the 1700-2500 SqFt ranges with some ocean views that sold in 2001. Of those, almost half sold below $800,000.

BTW, 32 sales doesn’t sound like very many until you consider that the MLS only reports 348 sales altogether for 92037 in 2001. 193 of the total 348 sold for less than $1,000,000; and 122 of the total sold for less than $800,000.

Obviously, some of these homes were better than others, but I daresay that at least a few of those sales would qualify as “nice homes” by most people’s standards.

In my opinion and based on what’s already been happening, the “nice 2000 SqFt home with some view for under $1,000,000” is a certainty.

[Bugs]

The MLS reports that there were 32 sales of LJ homes in the 1700-2500 SqFt ranges with some ocean views that sold in 2001. Of those, almost half sold below $800,000.

BTW, 32 sales doesn’t sound like very many until you consider that the MLS only reports 348 sales altogether for 92037 in 2001. 193 of the total 348 sold for less than $1,000,000; and 122 of the total sold for less than $800,000.

Obviously, some of these homes were better than others, but I daresay that at least a few of those sales would qualify as “nice homes” by most people’s standards.

In my opinion and based on what’s already been happening, the “nice 2000 SqFt home with some view for under $1,000,000” is a certainty.

[Bugs]

The MLS reports that there were 32 sales of LJ homes in the 1700-2500 SqFt ranges with some ocean views that sold in 2001. Of those, almost half sold below $800,000.

BTW, 32 sales doesn’t sound like very many until you consider that the MLS only reports 348 sales altogether for 92037 in 2001. 193 of the total 348 sold for less than $1,000,000; and 122 of the total sold for less than $800,000.

Obviously, some of these homes were better than others, but I daresay that at least a few of those sales would qualify as “nice homes” by most people’s standards.

In my opinion and based on what’s already been happening, the “nice 2000 SqFt home with some view for under $1,000,000” is a certainty.

[Bugs]

The MLS reports that there were 32 sales of LJ homes in the 1700-2500 SqFt ranges with some ocean views that sold in 2001. Of those, almost half sold below $800,000.

BTW, 32 sales doesn’t sound like very many until you consider that the MLS only reports 348 sales altogether for 92037 in 2001. 193 of the total 348 sold for less than $1,000,000; and 122 of the total sold for less than $800,000.

Obviously, some of these homes were better than others, but I daresay that at least a few of those sales would qualify as “nice homes” by most people’s standards.

In my opinion and based on what’s already been happening, the “nice 2000 SqFt home with some view for under $1,000,000” is a certainty.

[Bugs]

The MLS reports that there were 32 sales of LJ homes in the 1700-2500 SqFt ranges with some ocean views that sold in 2001. Of those, almost half sold below $800,000.

BTW, 32 sales doesn’t sound like very many until you consider that the MLS only reports 348 sales altogether for 92037 in 2001. 193 of the total 348 sold for less than $1,000,000; and 122 of the total sold for less than $800,000.

Obviously, some of these homes were better than others, but I daresay that at least a few of those sales would qualify as “nice homes” by most people’s standards.

In my opinion and based on what’s already been happening, the “nice 2000 SqFt home with some view for under $1,000,000” is a certainty.

[Author]

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