[Bugs]

There are people who “lost” money they could have garnered had they stuck with their homes longer while the market was going up. Some of them express regret at not being patient enough to hold off on their decision to sell, although that is frequently tempered with the “bird-in-hand” argument.

There will also be people who will “lose” money as a result of buying during what they recognize is a falling market.

From a financial perspective the difference between the two groups of losers is that the former’s losses are widely viewed as consisting of unrealized profits, whereas the latter group’s losses are in the form of hard earned cash.

Patience and commitment has a reward if you can identify the trend; the trick is to exercise that patience and commitment.

[Bugs]

The numbers locally are even more dramatic.

[Bugs]

The numbers locally are even more dramatic.

[Bugs]

Just for kicks, I looked through all the sales for May 2007 in Oceanside’s zips.

92054 (which includes the beach areas) had 45 sales, of which 8 were foreclosures and 1 probate.

92056 (s/east) had 39 sales, of which 5 were foreclosures and 1 was a probate sale.

92057 (n/east, including the back gate Pendleton area) had 56 sales, 4 of which were foreclosures, 5 were advertised as short sales, 2 relocations, and 2 probate sales.

Based on these numbers, the ratio of forced sales to total sales for 92054 was 22%; for 92056 it was 15%, for 92057 it was 23%, and the average for Oceanside altogether was 20%.

By the way, the sale prices on the foreclosures represented loan losses (not counting holding costs and transaction costs) averaging about $100,000 or so, almost regardless of price. There were a couple foeclosures where it appears the lender might have actually come out ahead (!!), but $75,000 and $125,000 losses were almost as common as the $100,000 losses.

As I’ve said before, I think when these must-sell properties comprise 30% or so of the market they will run it and it will be every man for himself.

[Bugs]

Just for kicks, I looked through all the sales for May 2007 in Oceanside’s zips.

92054 (which includes the beach areas) had 45 sales, of which 8 were foreclosures and 1 probate.

92056 (s/east) had 39 sales, of which 5 were foreclosures and 1 was a probate sale.

92057 (n/east, including the back gate Pendleton area) had 56 sales, 4 of which were foreclosures, 5 were advertised as short sales, 2 relocations, and 2 probate sales.

Based on these numbers, the ratio of forced sales to total sales for 92054 was 22%; for 92056 it was 15%, for 92057 it was 23%, and the average for Oceanside altogether was 20%.

By the way, the sale prices on the foreclosures represented loan losses (not counting holding costs and transaction costs) averaging about $100,000 or so, almost regardless of price. There were a couple foeclosures where it appears the lender might have actually come out ahead (!!), but $75,000 and $125,000 losses were almost as common as the $100,000 losses.

As I’ve said before, I think when these must-sell properties comprise 30% or so of the market they will run it and it will be every man for himself.

[Bugs]

Update:

As of today, the MLS reports 2,204 sales of 05/2007.

I was thinking this month’s tally would exceed 2,400 sales by the time the late reporters were caught up but now it looks like we might do well to break 2,300.

FYI, if we make 2,350 sales, the totals for May 2007 will only be 20% less than those for May 2006.

I’m going to wait a week or so and run some analyses on these countywide numbers by breaking the total number of sales for the same 5-month YTD periods for 2006 and 2007 into different size ranges and different age ranges so we can see how different, if at all, the composition of the two datasets are. That should be interesting.

[Bugs]

Update:

As of today, the MLS reports 2,204 sales of 05/2007.

I was thinking this month’s tally would exceed 2,400 sales by the time the late reporters were caught up but now it looks like we might do well to break 2,300.

FYI, if we make 2,350 sales, the totals for May 2007 will only be 20% less than those for May 2006.

I’m going to wait a week or so and run some analyses on these countywide numbers by breaking the total number of sales for the same 5-month YTD periods for 2006 and 2007 into different size ranges and different age ranges so we can see how different, if at all, the composition of the two datasets are. That should be interesting.

[Bugs]

I’m in the position that it would cost more for me to rent than to continue with my mortgage, and I don’t want to mess around with a higher property tax bracket or capital gains that would have resulted from an exiting-loitering-rentering cycle.

[Bugs]

I’m in the position that it would cost more for me to rent than to continue with my mortgage, and I don’t want to mess around with a higher property tax bracket or capital gains that would have resulted from an exiting-loitering-rentering cycle.

[Bugs]

The only reason I can think of that some banks aren’t being very agressive about their REOs is that they must be thinking they can manage their losses. If a bank was listening to one of the economists who are saying this will be over soon it would make sense to them to try and run the clock so as to not cause more defaults by contributing to the declining prices.

The head-in-sand approach would also appear attractive to any executive whose compensation involves quarterly performance bonuses based on stock prices.

I think these attempts are akin to rearranging deck chairs. Worse, really. Sooner or later they have to move those properties, and time is not on their side.

[Bugs]

The only reason I can think of that some banks aren’t being very agressive about their REOs is that they must be thinking they can manage their losses. If a bank was listening to one of the economists who are saying this will be over soon it would make sense to them to try and run the clock so as to not cause more defaults by contributing to the declining prices.

The head-in-sand approach would also appear attractive to any executive whose compensation involves quarterly performance bonuses based on stock prices.

I think these attempts are akin to rearranging deck chairs. Worse, really. Sooner or later they have to move those properties, and time is not on their side.

[Bugs]

I get paid in meatballs. I’ve been getting 2 meatballs a week but the talk is I might be able to hold out for 3 meatballs.

[Bugs]

I get paid in meatballs. I’ve been getting 2 meatballs a week but the talk is I might be able to hold out for 3 meatballs.

[Bugs]

I’ve been saying this about apartment rents for a long time on Piggington’s. A year later the U-T finally figures out the same thing. I guess that means I was wrong before but now I’m right.

Houses and apartments are connected in the rental market, if for no other reason than apartments serve as the lesser alternative. House rents wouldn’t be going up right now if there weren’t so many people sitting out the housing market. Of course, “going up” is a relative term. It’s not like they’ve doubled or even gone up 50%. They’ve just slightly exceed the pace set by the wage and population trendlines. Thy may or may not hold – I rather think they won’t hold but I guess I’ll have to wait for a few years before the U-T gives me my opinion.

[Bugs]

I’ve been saying this about apartment rents for a long time on Piggington’s. A year later the U-T finally figures out the same thing. I guess that means I was wrong before but now I’m right.

Houses and apartments are connected in the rental market, if for no other reason than apartments serve as the lesser alternative. House rents wouldn’t be going up right now if there weren’t so many people sitting out the housing market. Of course, “going up” is a relative term. It’s not like they’ve doubled or even gone up 50%. They’ve just slightly exceed the pace set by the wage and population trendlines. Thy may or may not hold – I rather think they won’t hold but I guess I’ll have to wait for a few years before the U-T gives me my opinion.

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