Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
Bugs
ParticipantNobody likes to hear you told them so. I usually keep my mouth shut about this whole thing unless someone asks, and then I start throwing data at them. After 10 minutes of that I really don’t need to express an opinion.
Do you remember what the Bulls’ favorite argument was a couple years back when we were talking about this happening? Every time their “this is a new paradigm”, “everyone wants to live here”, “there’s a housing shortage”, and “we’re adding jobs” arguments all ran into a wall the one thing we could always count on them saying was this:
“Homes won’t lose value because it hasn’t happened yet.”
Brilliant, huh?
Yeah, well guess what – this scenario has reversed and now it’s our turn. If your guy isn’t listening to reason the only thing you have to say is:
“Pricing is already in decline and there’s no sign that trend is going to stop any time soon.”
Put the burden on them to show you otherwise and watch them squirm. Just make sure you do it nicely, or it comes off as gloating. It’s not cool to kick a debt slave when they’re down.
ParticipantNobody likes to hear you told them so. I usually keep my mouth shut about this whole thing unless someone asks, and then I start throwing data at them. After 10 minutes of that I really don’t need to express an opinion.
Do you remember what the Bulls’ favorite argument was a couple years back when we were talking about this happening? Every time their “this is a new paradigm”, “everyone wants to live here”, “there’s a housing shortage”, and “we’re adding jobs” arguments all ran into a wall the one thing we could always count on them saying was this:
“Homes won’t lose value because it hasn’t happened yet.”
Brilliant, huh?
Yeah, well guess what – this scenario has reversed and now it’s our turn. If your guy isn’t listening to reason the only thing you have to say is:
“Pricing is already in decline and there’s no sign that trend is going to stop any time soon.”
Put the burden on them to show you otherwise and watch them squirm. Just make sure you do it nicely, or it comes off as gloating. It’s not cool to kick a debt slave when they’re down.
ParticipantNobody likes to hear you told them so. I usually keep my mouth shut about this whole thing unless someone asks, and then I start throwing data at them. After 10 minutes of that I really don’t need to express an opinion.
Do you remember what the Bulls’ favorite argument was a couple years back when we were talking about this happening? Every time their “this is a new paradigm”, “everyone wants to live here”, “there’s a housing shortage”, and “we’re adding jobs” arguments all ran into a wall the one thing we could always count on them saying was this:
“Homes won’t lose value because it hasn’t happened yet.”
Brilliant, huh?
Yeah, well guess what – this scenario has reversed and now it’s our turn. If your guy isn’t listening to reason the only thing you have to say is:
“Pricing is already in decline and there’s no sign that trend is going to stop any time soon.”
Put the burden on them to show you otherwise and watch them squirm. Just make sure you do it nicely, or it comes off as gloating. It’s not cool to kick a debt slave when they’re down.
August 8, 2007 at 10:53 AM in reply to: Slow decline or is a big chunk about to be ripped out? #71819ParticipantAll the action occurs on the margins, and so far the margins aren’t big enough to dominate the rest of the market. The size of those margins will undoubtably increase, but how big they’ll get and how much damage to the buyer psychology they create is really tough to say.
We’re in uncharted territory at this point – nobody can know to what degree these various pieces will interact with respect to a declining market.
The conventional wisdom based on spikes in the past is that the downside of a spike is a little more moderate in pace than the upside of that spike. This last upside was very steep, so if the past repeats we can guess the downside will be steeper than average before it mellows out to that more moderate bleed.
Let’s say that must-sell transactions become 75% of the closed sales. We would still have to have buyers for each of those sales – buyers who think that now is a good time to buy. The cruel irony is that during the same time sellers are being punished the buyers are (finally) figuring out they don’t want to be the greater fool. This leads to more punishment for the sellers.
I’m still in the 10-12% camp as far as the next 12 months are concerned. For a few market segments in SD that would get us almost halfway to the original -50% forecasts. After that, the number of closed foreclosure sales and the number of REO listings may comprise a big enough margin to take over the driver’s seat.
No matter what, it’s still going to take years before this is over.
August 8, 2007 at 10:53 AM in reply to: Slow decline or is a big chunk about to be ripped out? #71935ParticipantAll the action occurs on the margins, and so far the margins aren’t big enough to dominate the rest of the market. The size of those margins will undoubtably increase, but how big they’ll get and how much damage to the buyer psychology they create is really tough to say.
We’re in uncharted territory at this point – nobody can know to what degree these various pieces will interact with respect to a declining market.
The conventional wisdom based on spikes in the past is that the downside of a spike is a little more moderate in pace than the upside of that spike. This last upside was very steep, so if the past repeats we can guess the downside will be steeper than average before it mellows out to that more moderate bleed.
Let’s say that must-sell transactions become 75% of the closed sales. We would still have to have buyers for each of those sales – buyers who think that now is a good time to buy. The cruel irony is that during the same time sellers are being punished the buyers are (finally) figuring out they don’t want to be the greater fool. This leads to more punishment for the sellers.
I’m still in the 10-12% camp as far as the next 12 months are concerned. For a few market segments in SD that would get us almost halfway to the original -50% forecasts. After that, the number of closed foreclosure sales and the number of REO listings may comprise a big enough margin to take over the driver’s seat.
No matter what, it’s still going to take years before this is over.
August 8, 2007 at 10:53 AM in reply to: Slow decline or is a big chunk about to be ripped out? #71946ParticipantAll the action occurs on the margins, and so far the margins aren’t big enough to dominate the rest of the market. The size of those margins will undoubtably increase, but how big they’ll get and how much damage to the buyer psychology they create is really tough to say.
We’re in uncharted territory at this point – nobody can know to what degree these various pieces will interact with respect to a declining market.
The conventional wisdom based on spikes in the past is that the downside of a spike is a little more moderate in pace than the upside of that spike. This last upside was very steep, so if the past repeats we can guess the downside will be steeper than average before it mellows out to that more moderate bleed.
Let’s say that must-sell transactions become 75% of the closed sales. We would still have to have buyers for each of those sales – buyers who think that now is a good time to buy. The cruel irony is that during the same time sellers are being punished the buyers are (finally) figuring out they don’t want to be the greater fool. This leads to more punishment for the sellers.
I’m still in the 10-12% camp as far as the next 12 months are concerned. For a few market segments in SD that would get us almost halfway to the original -50% forecasts. After that, the number of closed foreclosure sales and the number of REO listings may comprise a big enough margin to take over the driver’s seat.
No matter what, it’s still going to take years before this is over.
ParticipantValue is not the same as price. While the “price” of the stocks increase, so does the price for everything else.
ParticipantValue is not the same as price. While the “price” of the stocks increase, so does the price for everything else.
ParticipantValue is not the same as price. While the “price” of the stocks increase, so does the price for everything else.
ParticipantThat’s a pretty impressive list you have going there.
Kudos.ParticipantThat’s a pretty impressive list you have going there.
Kudos.ParticipantThat’s a pretty impressive list you have going there.
Kudos.ParticipantI occasionally surf out in front of that house, it’s just a few doors down from Junior’s house. That site backs to Pacific Street but it fronts the Strand and is beachfront.
The $2,500,000 is (more or less) the lot value and the last time I looked at lot values down there on the Strand it was worth it. The excavation for the relatively big house is already done. Someone building on that lot would probably just have to redo the retaining wall and finish grade.
ParticipantI occasionally surf out in front of that house, it’s just a few doors down from Junior’s house. That site backs to Pacific Street but it fronts the Strand and is beachfront.
The $2,500,000 is (more or less) the lot value and the last time I looked at lot values down there on the Strand it was worth it. The excavation for the relatively big house is already done. Someone building on that lot would probably just have to redo the retaining wall and finish grade.
-
AuthorPosts