[Bugs]

The big difference with the RE markets vs. the stock markets is that it’s possible to know exactly what you’re buying and what it’s worth in relation to the various alternatives. For a home buyer, those alternatives are not just limited to other homes for purchase, they also include rental housing and housing located in other areas.

TGs hundred thousand armchair quarterbacks is a great way to look at it. Sure, some of them are trend-following lemmings and have little depth in the subject themselves, but a lot of them follow because the message resonates with them.

These losses were completely foreseeable and avoidable, that fact being vividly demonstrated by the people who did see it coming and who did get out of the way. Some of the losers this time will choose not to repeat their mistake, and after a brief search they will find the sources of information they need to get ahead of the curve instead of behind it.

The way I see it, there are more people during this cycle who were well informed in advance and well prepared for the outcome than there were in the previous cycle. I fully anticipate that group will grow in volume during the next cycle. The only question will be whether or not they’ll be outnumbered by the additional speculators who will jump onboard next time after having missed out this time.

But make no mistake, the next time the market enters into an upcycle the REIC will rewind their jukebox to belt out all those golden oldies about how there’s a huge shortage of land, everyone wants to live in SD, the weather is great, jobs are great, RE never goes down, and this time it’s different. You’ll be able to set your watch by that.

[Bugs]

I have relatives living in that neighborhood. Fortunately for me, they didn’t ask my opinion when they bought. Unfortunately for them, they should have.

[Bugs]

I have relatives living in that neighborhood. Fortunately for me, they didn’t ask my opinion when they bought. Unfortunately for them, they should have.

[Bugs]

I have relatives living in that neighborhood. Fortunately for me, they didn’t ask my opinion when they bought. Unfortunately for them, they should have.

[Bugs]

I suppose the national economy could move at a different pace than the local RE markets. But as far as the local RE markets are concerned I don’t think a quick turn around is in the cards.

Pricing is a function of supply vs. demand. Before pricing can stablize we need to clear out our excess inventory, not continue to add to it as we surely will over the next 18 months.

I think the idea that the internet age is going to shorten up our economic cycles is more correctly categorized as a “should be” rather and an “is”. It is based on the premise that if enough buyers are adequately informed they’ll act rationally. Unfortunately, we’ve seen the market participants continuing to act even more irrationally than ever before, information availability notwithstanding.

Ideally, a well informed market acting in a completely rational manner would never disconnect from the underlying fundamentals to begin with. Thus, no peaks or valleys, just a stable and efficient market. I think it’s safe to say we’re a long ways from that at present.

[Bugs]

I suppose the national economy could move at a different pace than the local RE markets. But as far as the local RE markets are concerned I don’t think a quick turn around is in the cards.

Pricing is a function of supply vs. demand. Before pricing can stablize we need to clear out our excess inventory, not continue to add to it as we surely will over the next 18 months.

I think the idea that the internet age is going to shorten up our economic cycles is more correctly categorized as a “should be” rather and an “is”. It is based on the premise that if enough buyers are adequately informed they’ll act rationally. Unfortunately, we’ve seen the market participants continuing to act even more irrationally than ever before, information availability notwithstanding.

Ideally, a well informed market acting in a completely rational manner would never disconnect from the underlying fundamentals to begin with. Thus, no peaks or valleys, just a stable and efficient market. I think it’s safe to say we’re a long ways from that at present.

[Bugs]

I suppose the national economy could move at a different pace than the local RE markets. But as far as the local RE markets are concerned I don’t think a quick turn around is in the cards.

Pricing is a function of supply vs. demand. Before pricing can stablize we need to clear out our excess inventory, not continue to add to it as we surely will over the next 18 months.

I think the idea that the internet age is going to shorten up our economic cycles is more correctly categorized as a “should be” rather and an “is”. It is based on the premise that if enough buyers are adequately informed they’ll act rationally. Unfortunately, we’ve seen the market participants continuing to act even more irrationally than ever before, information availability notwithstanding.

Ideally, a well informed market acting in a completely rational manner would never disconnect from the underlying fundamentals to begin with. Thus, no peaks or valleys, just a stable and efficient market. I think it’s safe to say we’re a long ways from that at present.

[Bugs]

The VOSD has managed to scoop the U-T.

I’m wondering if the reason eastern Chula Vista is having these problems is because so much of it is new construction, built out and sold off by the developers in the last few years. Eastern CV is a supersized version of San Elijo Ranch in San Marcos.

[Bugs]

The VOSD has managed to scoop the U-T.

I’m wondering if the reason eastern Chula Vista is having these problems is because so much of it is new construction, built out and sold off by the developers in the last few years. Eastern CV is a supersized version of San Elijo Ranch in San Marcos.

[Bugs]

The VOSD has managed to scoop the U-T.

I’m wondering if the reason eastern Chula Vista is having these problems is because so much of it is new construction, built out and sold off by the developers in the last few years. Eastern CV is a supersized version of San Elijo Ranch in San Marcos.

[Bugs]

Then there’s Greenpoint….

“SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Capital One Financial said late Monday that it is closing its wholesale mortgage business and cutting 1,900 jobs as the credit card giant loses confidence in the profitability of originating home loans, then selling them in secondary markets.

The company said it will immediately stop originating mortgages through its GreenPoint Mortgage business, which offers loans through brokers.
The company also said it will close GreenPoint’s California-based headquarters along with 31 locations across 19 states. That will mean the elimination of roughly 1,900 jobs, most by the end of 2007.”

My deja vu is pinging so hard I think I’m going to have to go back to the mullet and the Camaro.

[Bugs]

Then there’s Greenpoint….

“SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Capital One Financial said late Monday that it is closing its wholesale mortgage business and cutting 1,900 jobs as the credit card giant loses confidence in the profitability of originating home loans, then selling them in secondary markets.

The company said it will immediately stop originating mortgages through its GreenPoint Mortgage business, which offers loans through brokers.
The company also said it will close GreenPoint’s California-based headquarters along with 31 locations across 19 states. That will mean the elimination of roughly 1,900 jobs, most by the end of 2007.”

My deja vu is pinging so hard I think I’m going to have to go back to the mullet and the Camaro.

[Bugs]

Then there’s Greenpoint….

“SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Capital One Financial said late Monday that it is closing its wholesale mortgage business and cutting 1,900 jobs as the credit card giant loses confidence in the profitability of originating home loans, then selling them in secondary markets.

The company said it will immediately stop originating mortgages through its GreenPoint Mortgage business, which offers loans through brokers.
The company also said it will close GreenPoint’s California-based headquarters along with 31 locations across 19 states. That will mean the elimination of roughly 1,900 jobs, most by the end of 2007.”

My deja vu is pinging so hard I think I’m going to have to go back to the mullet and the Camaro.

[Bugs]

It’s all window dressing. As far as prices go over the long term I don’t think it matters what happens with the conventional rate. The only difference it can make is with respect to the timing, and I don’t think that difference will be significant.

The peak was built by excess demand, courtesy of the short term investors and flippers. Many of the FBs who were just buying a home for themselves were competing with these speculators.

The investors have left the building, and they took the excess demand with them. Absent this excess demand the pricing will eventually stabilize based on wage and population trends. That means we won’t be going back into growth mode until the investors decide there’s some short term profits to be made.

Housing pricing here in most neighborhoods peaked between mid-2005 and mid-2006. The beginnings of the downturn in the mid-2005 neighborhoods were already underway by mid-2006. The subprime problems didn’t really start coming to light until several months after that. The way I see it, the subprime problems, while inevitable, didn’t cause the problem, they just made it worse. Likewise, their demise didn’t start our downturn, it only makes it worse.

For the most part, a FB who couldn’t afford the conventional rate when it was 5.5% back in 2004/2005 isn’t going to be able to afford the 6.5% rate in 2007, regardless of which investors are buying it on the secondary market. Not everyone’s career is on an upward trajectory. Besides that, refinancing a 100% debt requires some equity, and equity is in decline in most areas in SD County. As far as I can tell, virtually all of the marginal loans in 2004/2005 are still going to be marginal or unfeasible in 2007. Unless these borrowers have accrued some downpayment money in the last couple years there isn’t going to be enough equity to refinance.

I think that having reasonable liquidity coupled with reasonable underwriting is a good thing for everyone. The excesses of the market will still sort themselves out over time.

I’m a lot more annoyed at the fed for printing money to throw at these lenders.

[Bugs]

It’s all window dressing. As far as prices go over the long term I don’t think it matters what happens with the conventional rate. The only difference it can make is with respect to the timing, and I don’t think that difference will be significant.

The peak was built by excess demand, courtesy of the short term investors and flippers. Many of the FBs who were just buying a home for themselves were competing with these speculators.

The investors have left the building, and they took the excess demand with them. Absent this excess demand the pricing will eventually stabilize based on wage and population trends. That means we won’t be going back into growth mode until the investors decide there’s some short term profits to be made.

Housing pricing here in most neighborhoods peaked between mid-2005 and mid-2006. The beginnings of the downturn in the mid-2005 neighborhoods were already underway by mid-2006. The subprime problems didn’t really start coming to light until several months after that. The way I see it, the subprime problems, while inevitable, didn’t cause the problem, they just made it worse. Likewise, their demise didn’t start our downturn, it only makes it worse.

For the most part, a FB who couldn’t afford the conventional rate when it was 5.5% back in 2004/2005 isn’t going to be able to afford the 6.5% rate in 2007, regardless of which investors are buying it on the secondary market. Not everyone’s career is on an upward trajectory. Besides that, refinancing a 100% debt requires some equity, and equity is in decline in most areas in SD County. As far as I can tell, virtually all of the marginal loans in 2004/2005 are still going to be marginal or unfeasible in 2007. Unless these borrowers have accrued some downpayment money in the last couple years there isn’t going to be enough equity to refinance.

I think that having reasonable liquidity coupled with reasonable underwriting is a good thing for everyone. The excesses of the market will still sort themselves out over time.

I’m a lot more annoyed at the fed for printing money to throw at these lenders.

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