[bsrsharma]

Not really. This place is a year behind San Diego in the cycle. And the real estate market is different in so many ways. The land use policies I mentioned cause market distortions and prevents normal price adjustment.
People spout this weird argument a lot – we are not California! (meaning we don’t have such extremes. Not True. For Oregon market, the bubble is very real)

[bsrsharma]

Rustico, Yes; though people make fun of P.R. of PDX, there is good spirit of community here with things like rose festival. Air is cleaner too. There is good public transport (MAX light rail). But the roads are under maintained for the wet & colder weather here. But the most puzzling aspect is the local governments’ iron hand on land use policy. The tri-county area (Multnomah/Washington/Clackamas) are extremely stingy with building permits and that has caused a lot of ugly “vertical” growth – like 2000sqft homes on 4000sqft lots. Some of the newer developments remind me of Tokyo. This in a place where you drive 20 miles out of town and it is all empty. They don’t even grow anything valuable (like in California). A popular T-shirt sold here has the slogan “Keep Oregon Weird”.

[bsrsharma]

all the people that want to move to Texas….

Stop your wagons! I saw the link lindismith posted and found Hamilton County, Indiana, (near Indianapolis) is a nice place. Income is 83K, Houses cost 213K.

{now, that may stop the debate between CA & TX}

Thinking of leaving California? Read this first!

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,877985-1,00.html

That was written 35 years back!

[bsrsharma]

Here in People’s Republic of Portland, Oregon, homes are small boxes vertically piled up like rabbit hutches on tiny lots. Priced high, almost SD prices. What do people do with all the land? Grow hay & grass seeds. Truly weird land use policies. Many middle class buyers buy across the river in Washington state and commute, choking the bridges. I came here on a job transfer; otherwise not worth moving to. You may not like the rain too.

[bsrsharma]

market analysis

That is like playing football – lots of rules about blocking & tackling. What we have now is fighting in Iraq – try to help a child and you get your face blown up. An analysis doesn't mean a thing in a freefall. An example: Just how do you factor in the fact that most of the buyers may not get financing and drop out? If there are 100 potential buyers who made offers, but only 10 can close eventually, is there a market in the usual sense at all?

[bsrsharma]

mgub: I have a nice place for you: Hamilton County, Indiana. Near Indianapolis. Income = 83K. House price = 215K. You can live debt free very quickly, if you are frugal. In fact, many San Diegans can buy a home there and retire.

http://www.internest.com/city/hamiltoncountyin.asp

[bsrsharma]

arraya: It is not a appraisal issue. Even a dumb realtor shows you a pageful of comps. The genius is to predict the direction of motion by reading the market. That is where they are weak – especially if they have not seen a few downturns. My suggestion would be, in these times, hire a realtor who went through the late 1980s cycle. If he/she sold during 1989-1996, they are Kosher. Else, they have no business being your agent.

[bsrsharma]

This should relieve your unease:

————————————————————
He was educated at East Elementary, J.V. Martin Junior High, and Dillon High School, where he was a high achieving pupil. He taught himself calculus, edited the school newspaper, was class valedictorian and achieved the highest SAT score in the state that year — 1590 out of 1600. He was also the All-State saxophonist, playing in the school’s marching band.

On leaving high school in 1971 he enrolled at Harvard University, where he spent his undergraduate years in Winthrop House and graduated summa cum laude with a B.A. in economics in 1975. He received a PhD in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1979. He taught at the Stanford Graduate School of Business from 1979 until 1985, was a visiting professor at New York University and went on to become a tenured professor at Princeton University in the Department of Economics. He chaired that department from 1996 until September 2002, when he went on public service leave. He resigned his position at Princeton July 1, 2005. He has given several lectures at the London School of Economics on monetary theory and policy and has written three textbooks on macroeconomics, and one on microeconomics. He was the Director of the Monetary Economics Program of the National Bureau of Economic Research and the editor of the American Economic Review.

[bsrsharma]

What’s wrong with some soothing words to a populist senator? It is his actions that matter – and he has shown levelheadedness so far. If he drops funds rate in the face of inflation – that is when he becomes a crook. Ladling out a few bromides to politicians is the cost of keeping his job.

[bsrsharma]

That is a fairly common Realtor behaviour. Start at high price – pleases you, then ask for reduction if it doesn’t work. But in her (weak) defence, I should add, this is such a cataclysmic time in RE that she is not any better than you in reading markets. My guess would be, as a piggington reader, you are probably better than her! My suggestion is, if she asks for x% reduction, go for 1.5 times that. Unwarranted optimism is a realtor trait.

[bsrsharma]

single biggest factors

I think "what the market can bear" also has an effect.

[bsrsharma]

seattle-relo: I think it will be interesting to see your spreadsheet driven algorithm that landed you in San Diego. You can leave out salary data and just work with house numbers. I am curious to know if there is any algorithm that will land you in SD other than having huge amount of cash (RSF/Del Mar/La Jolla kind).

[bsrsharma]

seattle-relo: Do you own or rent? That is huge factor in those spreadsheet type analysis. $250 is not even a rounding error if you have to sell & buy. But if you own (and sold last year) and could rent in TX and move back a couple years from now, I think your spreadsheets will look much more interesting.

[bsrsharma]

Having sold our house at the beginning of this downturn, my suggestion (learnt hard way) would be – Be more aggressive in pricing down the house. If you are not in the bottom 20% of comparables, both $ and $/sqft wise, nothing will happen and you will chase down the market. Many agents take comfort in placing it near middle. This market is absolute catastrophe and many RE folks are in denial (except all those who lost jobs).

[bsrsharma]

asians!!!!!!

Actually lots of them in Houston. PetroChem & NASA. Many in Dallas/Austin high tech belts.

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