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February 23, 2015 at 4:16 PM in reply to: OT: Discuss- The Porsche GT4 is a better car than a 911 and very close, if not better than a 911s #783265February 23, 2015 at 2:42 PM in reply to: OT: Discuss- The Porsche GT4 is a better car than a 911 and very close, if not better than a 911s #783263
bobby
ParticipantI’m on a couple of car boards. The word is some dealers will sell out their allotted cars. Some will not. If you really want one, call around.
[quote=flu]Lol
……
Thank you for contacting XXXX. My name is XXXXXXX, Internet Sales Manager, and I appreciate the opportunity to assist you with your request.In regards to your inquiry, we currently have a waiting list of about 42 people with hopes of purchasing a GT4. The reality is with Porsche only producing less than 500 of these vehicles it will be nearly impossible to fulfill the current demand we have. We are anticipating maybe getting 10-15. So at this time are not adding to our interest list but I will keep in touch should anything change.
[/quote]Participantyou must be a math major (stat), pediatrician or epidemiologist.
well put.
I am a physician who love numbers (engineer in previous life) and can’t explain as well as you did[quote=biggoldbear]Just in case anyone runs into a “informed” anti-vaxer, some vaccines can cause adverse reactions in a small number of people (From CDC) http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/00046738.htm
But this argument is similar to saying that some people would be better off not wearing a seat belt because sometimes they trap people in a burning car.
Except not getting vaccines is worse, because of the already mentioned effect on herd immunity. You are not just putting yourself and children at risk, you are putting others at risk too.
The problem is that for some diseases the risk of the vaccine is actually greater than the risk of getting the disease, but this is only because the vaccine works so well. If people start to avoid the vaccine, this math changes quickly (as we all can see clearly now).[/quote]
ParticipantI’m all for personal liberty but personal liberty does not include putting others at risk.
I don’t have the personal “liberty” to shoot bullets into the sky within a city limit. I don’t have the personal “liberty” to yell “fire” in a crowded theater.
I agree with a lot of Rand Paul’s ideas but the optional vaccine is just idiotic.January 20, 2015 at 7:55 PM in reply to: OT:Be careful what you wish for… 28% Capital Gains Tax Proposal #782220Participant[quote=utcsox]$500k a year will make you comfortable within 1% in the United States ($388,905).
http://money.cnn.com/2014/04/04/pf/taxes/top-1-taxes/
Even in San Diego ($428,000), you are well ahead of 1%er.
http://gis.mtc.ca.gov/home/images/motm/motm212.pdf
Just since when is top 1% income “ain’t that rich”?[/quote]
$388,905 is adjusted income. Before deductions, I’m guessing $500,000. Also this is likely stats for all filers, singles and family.
I remember reading somewhere to make 1% in Coastal CA areas, a family need to have pretax income of $750,000+
Participant[quote=doofrat]
Why do an all cash transaction when interest rates are so low? Looking at interest rates tracking house prices over the last couple of years, the monthly payment seems to have stayed the same, tracking the prices pretty closely relative to interest rates. If you do all cash, it seems you’re paying a premium price that’s premium due to low rates, but not getting the benefit of the low rate? Or is it because the rates on an investment property are too high?[/quote]
because I have the money sitting in a money market account earning 0.01% interest.
I think stock market is a bit frothy right now so don’t want to put money there.
we went to look at 3 properties this past weekend but were not interested in any of them.
will update in the future…Participant[quote=Jazzman]I would think the only time to become a landlord in the Bay area was 20 years ago. The rent to price ratio is 20% above it’s historical average, and I’d suspect that is a very conservative number.
Here’s a hypothetical investment analysis. You can argue the variability of some the individual items, but for a home valued at $500k, with a rent of $2,000 a month, the picture may look some thing like this.
Market or Appraised Value”$500,000″
Purchase Price “$500,000”
Initial EquityDown Payment 10%
Amount Financed “$450,000”
Down Payment Amount “$50,000”
Closing Costs & Fees “$3,500”
Total Cash Investment “$53,500”Interest Rate (30 yr Fixed) 4%
Debt Service (P&I) Monthly “$2,021”
Debt Service (P&I) Yearly “$24,248”Monthly Rent (GSI) “$2,000”
Annual Property Tax “$5,000”
Annual Utilities “$200”
Annual Landscaping “$500”
Annual Insurance Premium “$600”Vacancy Rate (% of GSI) 8%
Maintenance Rate (% of GSI) 5%
Property Mgmt Rate (% of GSI) 8%Gross Scheduled Income (GSI) “$24,000”
Less Vacancy Amount “$(1,999)”
Gross Operating Income (GOI) “$22,001”Annual Operating Expenses
Property Management “$(1,760)”
Annual Property Taxes “$(5,000)”
Annual Utilities “$200)”
Annual Landscaping “$(500)”
Annual Insurance Premium “$(600)”
Repairs & Maintenance “$(1,100)”
Total Operating Expenses “$(9,160)”Net Operating Income “$12,841”
Less Debt Service “$(24,248)”
Before-Tax Cash Flow (BTCF) “$(11,408)”Cash-On-Cash ROI -21.32%
Last two years price increases make investing a challenge now even in places like Las Vegas, where prices corrected by 60%, which is twice the drop of metropolitan CA.[/quote]
thanks for interesting analysis.
Looked at some properties today but way too much. Thinking about buying less expensive but further away.
Participantyeah.. no on hunters point. I don’t like risk. rather pay a little more to be safe.
as mentioned by scaredy, some folks don’t want to get hands dirty for a variety of reason. Doesn’t mean they shouldn’t invest in rental.
Participantsee above post. I don’t think 3% of purchase price is affordable by my potential tenant. also, property tax is 1.2% so now my “investment” is less than 1.8%. then add other expenses. Pretty much goes down to 1.5%. Stick money in high dividend stock is a better choice no?
[quote=flu][quote=bobby][quote=flu]The only question you need to ask yourself is
do the numbers work out with a decent positive cash flow for any random tenant.
Also imho, if I were you, I’d do myself a favor and rent to a complete stranger, not someone I have any sort of relationship with (professional or otherwise).
Either you’re not going to be happy because you won’t be able to get the best price you can get, or the other person isn’t going to be happy, because they think you’re trying to take advantage of the relationship with you….or both…[/quote]
thanks for advice. will take into account and seek advice from friends also.
the numbers definitely don’t work out. ie the “mortgage”* will be higher than rent. Not to mention taxes and maintenance.*I put “mortgage” b/c this will be all cash transaction.[/quote]
Well, if it’s an all cash transaction. You can look at it the other way…
Figure out how much your cash on cash return will be (factoring a reasonable estimate of your rental income with not 100% occupancy). If you’re around 3-4% in the bay area, that’s not bad. I’d probably do it in a decent part of the bay area. Still beats that 1% CD, and I don’t think you can really go wrong with bay area housing in the long run :)[/quote]
Participant[quote=spdrun]Nationally, prices didn’t increase by 20-30% p/a.
San Diego: foreign investors, out-of-state investors, landlords, locals. It’s a desirable city.
SF: Googlers, general tech bubble folk.A 20% correction could easily happen. Remember that property prices have been all over the map since 2008. 50% is much less likely.
Can’t you just buy a 1/1 condo in the $150k range — they do exist — and have her pay you rent for it?
$150 tax, $250 HOA = $400, 80% mortgage =~ $700/mo. $1100/mo is reasonable if it also gleans tax credits for depreciation, etc.[/quote]
nationally, no but San Francisco Bay Area, yes.
condo are 1/1 condo are around $450-500K here. Add $300/mo HOA and various expenses/tax.
that’s gonna be at least $1500-2000/mo. Not doable for someone make $20/hour.the only $150 condo is about 90-minute drive away.
never thought about tax credit / depreciation. Thanks for letting me know. Owe you one. Will talk with tax acct.
Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]Just my Two cents.
To me it seems the higher end has topped out, but I don’t see a crash coming, just much slower appreciation.
The main reason I don’t see a crash coming is they have not been making crazy RE loans like they were in 2005-6.
On the lower end I do see some catch up occurring (most of the high end stuff is back at peak, I expect the lower end to catch up as well because TPTB seem to be pushing it from many sides in that direction).
Anyway IMO.[/quote]
just hoping for a 20% “correction”. I don’t see it happening either.
looks like I’m gonna offer her a “housing” allowance.
Participant[quote=carlsbadworker]I can tell you who is not buying:
1. Hedge funds, because the price is no longer attractive. Individual investors are splitting: most are waiting in the sideline and some are still buying
2. First-time buyers, because it is much harder to qualify now and the crazy loan hasn’t arrived here yet. They want to buy but they are still saving the down payments.
3. Deadbeats. The people who are foreclosed in the last RE bottom are surprisingly not buying this time, even though their credit scores are gradually repaired allowing them to buy. I don’t know why, maybe they are scared of REs for now. Normally, after the price surges in 2013, they will show up in the party expecting they can be rich again, but they didn’t in 2014.
4. Younger generations. The reason is job market related. While the job market has improved, they don’t feel that they get secure jobs (e.g. part-time) or the jobs that they like. Previously, people would still buy because they expect the RE to make them rich, now the expectation of that has been lowered, they are reluctant to buy until the optimal moment would come. But this is a timing bomb, who wants to live with their parents or even roommates forever?[/quote]and yet the RE price had been on a 20-30 percent annual increase. This is what confuses me. are there that many foreign buyers? google? facebook? no idea who’s buying.
Participant[quote=spdrun]Unless you WANT to (say) use the rental to gain leverage over a professional relationship, of course.[/quote]
No… Just b/c she’s a loyal employee.Participant[quote=flu]The only question you need to ask yourself is
do the numbers work out with a decent positive cash flow for any random tenant.
Also imho, if I were you, I’d do myself a favor and rent to a complete stranger, not someone I have any sort of relationship with (professional or otherwise).
Either you’re not going to be happy because you won’t be able to get the best price you can get, or the other person isn’t going to be happy, because they think you’re trying to take advantage of the relationship with you….or both…[/quote]
thanks for advice. will take into account and seek advice from friends also.
the numbers definitely don’t work out. ie the “mortgage”* will be higher than rent. Not to mention taxes and maintenance.*I put “mortgage” b/c this will be all cash transaction.
Participant[quote=svelte]Wonder what the top line would be if they removed security guards.
I am betting it skews that line considerably.[/quote]
some LEO are quite muscular – part of the job of maintaining control. The BMI does not take this into consideration, only weight to heigh ratio. Didn’t say how “obesity” was determined but if BMI was used, this could be erroneous.
nvrmind – others have already posted the same idea.
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