[Bob]

[quote=SD Realtor]Pretty pathetic that we are all reduced to guessing how distorted the market will be due to intervention. [/quote]

Ain’t that the truth. The wildcard in all of this will be future interest rates. Its my best guess that most of San Diego County (not including CV,Oceanside) will continue to drop in price for the remainder of the year, even with the currently low mortgage rates. When rates go up the question will be, how high will they go ? The Federal Reserve can intervene for only so long before they create hyperinflation, so at some point the Feds will back off and mortgage rates will spike. Only then will we see what the true bottom really looks like.

[Bob]

[quote=SD Realtor]Pretty pathetic that we are all reduced to guessing how distorted the market will be due to intervention. [/quote]

Ain’t that the truth. The wildcard in all of this will be future interest rates. Its my best guess that most of San Diego County (not including CV,Oceanside) will continue to drop in price for the remainder of the year, even with the currently low mortgage rates. When rates go up the question will be, how high will they go ? The Federal Reserve can intervene for only so long before they create hyperinflation, so at some point the Feds will back off and mortgage rates will spike. Only then will we see what the true bottom really looks like.

[Bob]

[quote=SD Realtor]Pretty pathetic that we are all reduced to guessing how distorted the market will be due to intervention. [/quote]

Ain’t that the truth. The wildcard in all of this will be future interest rates. Its my best guess that most of San Diego County (not including CV,Oceanside) will continue to drop in price for the remainder of the year, even with the currently low mortgage rates. When rates go up the question will be, how high will they go ? The Federal Reserve can intervene for only so long before they create hyperinflation, so at some point the Feds will back off and mortgage rates will spike. Only then will we see what the true bottom really looks like.

[Bob]

[quote=SD Realtor]Pretty pathetic that we are all reduced to guessing how distorted the market will be due to intervention. [/quote]

Ain’t that the truth. The wildcard in all of this will be future interest rates. Its my best guess that most of San Diego County (not including CV,Oceanside) will continue to drop in price for the remainder of the year, even with the currently low mortgage rates. When rates go up the question will be, how high will they go ? The Federal Reserve can intervene for only so long before they create hyperinflation, so at some point the Feds will back off and mortgage rates will spike. Only then will we see what the true bottom really looks like.

[Bob]

[quote=SD Realtor]Pretty pathetic that we are all reduced to guessing how distorted the market will be due to intervention. [/quote]

Ain’t that the truth. The wildcard in all of this will be future interest rates. Its my best guess that most of San Diego County (not including CV,Oceanside) will continue to drop in price for the remainder of the year, even with the currently low mortgage rates. When rates go up the question will be, how high will they go ? The Federal Reserve can intervene for only so long before they create hyperinflation, so at some point the Feds will back off and mortgage rates will spike. Only then will we see what the true bottom really looks like.

[Bob]

[quote=Russell]”Is there a point when a sustained slow trickle price decline plus a slow uptick in interest rates plus eventual inflation will be a wash compared to slightly “overpaying” up front[/quote]

People are assuming that mortgage rates will remain at low levels and then go up at a slow pace. Thats an assumption based on hope, but not necessarily on reality. The fact is, the bond market could very well be the next bubble to burst. The Federal Reserve is spending trillions in an effort to keep mortgage rates artificially low. Thats why you currently see 4.5% interest rates. But the Feds cannot continue this practice indefinately, as it will lead to hyperinflation. As it is, inflation is coming anyway, and mortgage rates will spike. The question is, how high will rates go ? And how will higher rates affect home prices in San Diego, particulary in neighborhoods which have yet to hit bottom ?

The unintended consequences of the feds actions to spend its way out of the current recession will eventually lead us right back into another recession. The only difference is that the first recession is deflationary in nature, where as the second will be inflationary in nature.

[Bob]

[quote=Russell]”Is there a point when a sustained slow trickle price decline plus a slow uptick in interest rates plus eventual inflation will be a wash compared to slightly “overpaying” up front[/quote]

People are assuming that mortgage rates will remain at low levels and then go up at a slow pace. Thats an assumption based on hope, but not necessarily on reality. The fact is, the bond market could very well be the next bubble to burst. The Federal Reserve is spending trillions in an effort to keep mortgage rates artificially low. Thats why you currently see 4.5% interest rates. But the Feds cannot continue this practice indefinately, as it will lead to hyperinflation. As it is, inflation is coming anyway, and mortgage rates will spike. The question is, how high will rates go ? And how will higher rates affect home prices in San Diego, particulary in neighborhoods which have yet to hit bottom ?

The unintended consequences of the feds actions to spend its way out of the current recession will eventually lead us right back into another recession. The only difference is that the first recession is deflationary in nature, where as the second will be inflationary in nature.

[Bob]

[quote=Russell]”Is there a point when a sustained slow trickle price decline plus a slow uptick in interest rates plus eventual inflation will be a wash compared to slightly “overpaying” up front[/quote]

People are assuming that mortgage rates will remain at low levels and then go up at a slow pace. Thats an assumption based on hope, but not necessarily on reality. The fact is, the bond market could very well be the next bubble to burst. The Federal Reserve is spending trillions in an effort to keep mortgage rates artificially low. Thats why you currently see 4.5% interest rates. But the Feds cannot continue this practice indefinately, as it will lead to hyperinflation. As it is, inflation is coming anyway, and mortgage rates will spike. The question is, how high will rates go ? And how will higher rates affect home prices in San Diego, particulary in neighborhoods which have yet to hit bottom ?

The unintended consequences of the feds actions to spend its way out of the current recession will eventually lead us right back into another recession. The only difference is that the first recession is deflationary in nature, where as the second will be inflationary in nature.

[Bob]

[quote=Russell]”Is there a point when a sustained slow trickle price decline plus a slow uptick in interest rates plus eventual inflation will be a wash compared to slightly “overpaying” up front[/quote]

People are assuming that mortgage rates will remain at low levels and then go up at a slow pace. Thats an assumption based on hope, but not necessarily on reality. The fact is, the bond market could very well be the next bubble to burst. The Federal Reserve is spending trillions in an effort to keep mortgage rates artificially low. Thats why you currently see 4.5% interest rates. But the Feds cannot continue this practice indefinately, as it will lead to hyperinflation. As it is, inflation is coming anyway, and mortgage rates will spike. The question is, how high will rates go ? And how will higher rates affect home prices in San Diego, particulary in neighborhoods which have yet to hit bottom ?

The unintended consequences of the feds actions to spend its way out of the current recession will eventually lead us right back into another recession. The only difference is that the first recession is deflationary in nature, where as the second will be inflationary in nature.

[Bob]

[quote=Russell]”Is there a point when a sustained slow trickle price decline plus a slow uptick in interest rates plus eventual inflation will be a wash compared to slightly “overpaying” up front[/quote]

People are assuming that mortgage rates will remain at low levels and then go up at a slow pace. Thats an assumption based on hope, but not necessarily on reality. The fact is, the bond market could very well be the next bubble to burst. The Federal Reserve is spending trillions in an effort to keep mortgage rates artificially low. Thats why you currently see 4.5% interest rates. But the Feds cannot continue this practice indefinately, as it will lead to hyperinflation. As it is, inflation is coming anyway, and mortgage rates will spike. The question is, how high will rates go ? And how will higher rates affect home prices in San Diego, particulary in neighborhoods which have yet to hit bottom ?

The unintended consequences of the feds actions to spend its way out of the current recession will eventually lead us right back into another recession. The only difference is that the first recession is deflationary in nature, where as the second will be inflationary in nature.

[Bob]

[quote=briansd1]A bottom is NOT a time when buyers bid against each other.[/quote]

You know, thats the best statement I’ve read yet. And its a very important point that the Feds don’t understand…at least with respect to the Southern California market. While some areas of the country, ie, Arizona, Michigan, South Florida, probably could use government assistance to get property moving, here in Southern California there wasn’t a need for such assistance. As I’ve stated in another thread, even when supply far outpaced demand in TV, the good properties sold, often times only days after being listed. The reason ? Prices are once again reasonable.

[Bob]

[quote=briansd1]A bottom is NOT a time when buyers bid against each other.[/quote]

You know, thats the best statement I’ve read yet. And its a very important point that the Feds don’t understand…at least with respect to the Southern California market. While some areas of the country, ie, Arizona, Michigan, South Florida, probably could use government assistance to get property moving, here in Southern California there wasn’t a need for such assistance. As I’ve stated in another thread, even when supply far outpaced demand in TV, the good properties sold, often times only days after being listed. The reason ? Prices are once again reasonable.

[Bob]

[quote=briansd1]A bottom is NOT a time when buyers bid against each other.[/quote]

You know, thats the best statement I’ve read yet. And its a very important point that the Feds don’t understand…at least with respect to the Southern California market. While some areas of the country, ie, Arizona, Michigan, South Florida, probably could use government assistance to get property moving, here in Southern California there wasn’t a need for such assistance. As I’ve stated in another thread, even when supply far outpaced demand in TV, the good properties sold, often times only days after being listed. The reason ? Prices are once again reasonable.

[Bob]

[quote=briansd1]A bottom is NOT a time when buyers bid against each other.[/quote]

You know, thats the best statement I’ve read yet. And its a very important point that the Feds don’t understand…at least with respect to the Southern California market. While some areas of the country, ie, Arizona, Michigan, South Florida, probably could use government assistance to get property moving, here in Southern California there wasn’t a need for such assistance. As I’ve stated in another thread, even when supply far outpaced demand in TV, the good properties sold, often times only days after being listed. The reason ? Prices are once again reasonable.

[Bob]

[quote=briansd1]A bottom is NOT a time when buyers bid against each other.[/quote]

You know, thats the best statement I’ve read yet. And its a very important point that the Feds don’t understand…at least with respect to the Southern California market. While some areas of the country, ie, Arizona, Michigan, South Florida, probably could use government assistance to get property moving, here in Southern California there wasn’t a need for such assistance. As I’ve stated in another thread, even when supply far outpaced demand in TV, the good properties sold, often times only days after being listed. The reason ? Prices are once again reasonable.

[Author]

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