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Bob
Participant[quote=5yearwaiter]At least San Diego housing may return back to 2003 prices level, it could take one or two years. Warren Buffett is saying this economy, job loss and other many dependent factors would take a while to settle down … not happening until 5 years from now…. [/quote]
The problem I continue to have with the rosy predictions from many in the media, (as well as some of the cheerleaders here) is the fact that few are including factors such as higher interest rates in their predictions. The current flurry of activity among first timers is directly related to extremely low rates. Those rates won’t last forever. Once rates go up, fewer people will be able to qualify for loans – particularly if prices go up at the low end. That could result in a flattening of prices at the low end, or even price depreciation if supply increases. And as the article in this thread clearly shows, there’s still downward price pressure at the mid/upper range. If and when rates go up, those pressures will be even greater.
As for the economy, signs of inflation are already showing…even before the majority of the stimulus package money has been distributed and spent. Its going to be a long and bumpy ride for the US economy during the next 18-24 months…and as such, that will continue to suppress the local real estate market considerably.
Participant[quote=5yearwaiter]At least San Diego housing may return back to 2003 prices level, it could take one or two years. Warren Buffett is saying this economy, job loss and other many dependent factors would take a while to settle down … not happening until 5 years from now…. [/quote]
The problem I continue to have with the rosy predictions from many in the media, (as well as some of the cheerleaders here) is the fact that few are including factors such as higher interest rates in their predictions. The current flurry of activity among first timers is directly related to extremely low rates. Those rates won’t last forever. Once rates go up, fewer people will be able to qualify for loans – particularly if prices go up at the low end. That could result in a flattening of prices at the low end, or even price depreciation if supply increases. And as the article in this thread clearly shows, there’s still downward price pressure at the mid/upper range. If and when rates go up, those pressures will be even greater.
As for the economy, signs of inflation are already showing…even before the majority of the stimulus package money has been distributed and spent. Its going to be a long and bumpy ride for the US economy during the next 18-24 months…and as such, that will continue to suppress the local real estate market considerably.
Participant[quote=5yearwaiter]At least San Diego housing may return back to 2003 prices level, it could take one or two years. Warren Buffett is saying this economy, job loss and other many dependent factors would take a while to settle down … not happening until 5 years from now…. [/quote]
The problem I continue to have with the rosy predictions from many in the media, (as well as some of the cheerleaders here) is the fact that few are including factors such as higher interest rates in their predictions. The current flurry of activity among first timers is directly related to extremely low rates. Those rates won’t last forever. Once rates go up, fewer people will be able to qualify for loans – particularly if prices go up at the low end. That could result in a flattening of prices at the low end, or even price depreciation if supply increases. And as the article in this thread clearly shows, there’s still downward price pressure at the mid/upper range. If and when rates go up, those pressures will be even greater.
As for the economy, signs of inflation are already showing…even before the majority of the stimulus package money has been distributed and spent. Its going to be a long and bumpy ride for the US economy during the next 18-24 months…and as such, that will continue to suppress the local real estate market considerably.
Participant[quote=5yearwaiter]At least San Diego housing may return back to 2003 prices level, it could take one or two years. Warren Buffett is saying this economy, job loss and other many dependent factors would take a while to settle down … not happening until 5 years from now…. [/quote]
The problem I continue to have with the rosy predictions from many in the media, (as well as some of the cheerleaders here) is the fact that few are including factors such as higher interest rates in their predictions. The current flurry of activity among first timers is directly related to extremely low rates. Those rates won’t last forever. Once rates go up, fewer people will be able to qualify for loans – particularly if prices go up at the low end. That could result in a flattening of prices at the low end, or even price depreciation if supply increases. And as the article in this thread clearly shows, there’s still downward price pressure at the mid/upper range. If and when rates go up, those pressures will be even greater.
As for the economy, signs of inflation are already showing…even before the majority of the stimulus package money has been distributed and spent. Its going to be a long and bumpy ride for the US economy during the next 18-24 months…and as such, that will continue to suppress the local real estate market considerably.
Participant[quote]Well, this thread I agree that price is not a motivator for purchasing to an investor. That is why for me, I am only looking to be a RE investor at least 5-7 years from now.[/quote]
Show me an investor who doesn’t think price is a motivating factor when purchasing, and I’ll show you a fool.
The bubble was caused by purchasers who didn’t concern themselves with “price” as much as they were concerned with “appreciation”. Obviously, there is a certain amount of “herd” mentality involved in real estate. The key to success is learning what the herd is doing and then make sure NOT to follow.
Participant[quote]Well, this thread I agree that price is not a motivator for purchasing to an investor. That is why for me, I am only looking to be a RE investor at least 5-7 years from now.[/quote]
Show me an investor who doesn’t think price is a motivating factor when purchasing, and I’ll show you a fool.
The bubble was caused by purchasers who didn’t concern themselves with “price” as much as they were concerned with “appreciation”. Obviously, there is a certain amount of “herd” mentality involved in real estate. The key to success is learning what the herd is doing and then make sure NOT to follow.
Participant[quote]Well, this thread I agree that price is not a motivator for purchasing to an investor. That is why for me, I am only looking to be a RE investor at least 5-7 years from now.[/quote]
Show me an investor who doesn’t think price is a motivating factor when purchasing, and I’ll show you a fool.
The bubble was caused by purchasers who didn’t concern themselves with “price” as much as they were concerned with “appreciation”. Obviously, there is a certain amount of “herd” mentality involved in real estate. The key to success is learning what the herd is doing and then make sure NOT to follow.
Participant[quote]Well, this thread I agree that price is not a motivator for purchasing to an investor. That is why for me, I am only looking to be a RE investor at least 5-7 years from now.[/quote]
Show me an investor who doesn’t think price is a motivating factor when purchasing, and I’ll show you a fool.
The bubble was caused by purchasers who didn’t concern themselves with “price” as much as they were concerned with “appreciation”. Obviously, there is a certain amount of “herd” mentality involved in real estate. The key to success is learning what the herd is doing and then make sure NOT to follow.
Participant[quote]Well, this thread I agree that price is not a motivator for purchasing to an investor. That is why for me, I am only looking to be a RE investor at least 5-7 years from now.[/quote]
Show me an investor who doesn’t think price is a motivating factor when purchasing, and I’ll show you a fool.
The bubble was caused by purchasers who didn’t concern themselves with “price” as much as they were concerned with “appreciation”. Obviously, there is a certain amount of “herd” mentality involved in real estate. The key to success is learning what the herd is doing and then make sure NOT to follow.
ParticipantI’d rather be dead than invest in the Phoenix market. Unlike other desert cities such as Las Vegas, the Phoenix area has nearly UNLIMITED land to build out, which means supply will never become limited in future years. Rents in Phoenix generally are lower than other big cities, while the supply of rentals is usually a bit higher than other markets. Thats a recipe for disaster for investors. Unless an investor gets in with a sure thing positive cash flow, I wouldn’t walk..I’d RUN away from that market if I planned on holding the property long term.
What most of the articles don’t tell you is that the many of the so called “investors” are really institutional investors,ie, organizations that purchase in bulk directly from the banks and then flip. The banks can afford to sell in bulk at greatly reduced discounts….why ? Because the Feds are subsidizing the banks loses. You don’t like it ? Blame Obama.
ParticipantI’d rather be dead than invest in the Phoenix market. Unlike other desert cities such as Las Vegas, the Phoenix area has nearly UNLIMITED land to build out, which means supply will never become limited in future years. Rents in Phoenix generally are lower than other big cities, while the supply of rentals is usually a bit higher than other markets. Thats a recipe for disaster for investors. Unless an investor gets in with a sure thing positive cash flow, I wouldn’t walk..I’d RUN away from that market if I planned on holding the property long term.
What most of the articles don’t tell you is that the many of the so called “investors” are really institutional investors,ie, organizations that purchase in bulk directly from the banks and then flip. The banks can afford to sell in bulk at greatly reduced discounts….why ? Because the Feds are subsidizing the banks loses. You don’t like it ? Blame Obama.
ParticipantI’d rather be dead than invest in the Phoenix market. Unlike other desert cities such as Las Vegas, the Phoenix area has nearly UNLIMITED land to build out, which means supply will never become limited in future years. Rents in Phoenix generally are lower than other big cities, while the supply of rentals is usually a bit higher than other markets. Thats a recipe for disaster for investors. Unless an investor gets in with a sure thing positive cash flow, I wouldn’t walk..I’d RUN away from that market if I planned on holding the property long term.
What most of the articles don’t tell you is that the many of the so called “investors” are really institutional investors,ie, organizations that purchase in bulk directly from the banks and then flip. The banks can afford to sell in bulk at greatly reduced discounts….why ? Because the Feds are subsidizing the banks loses. You don’t like it ? Blame Obama.
ParticipantI’d rather be dead than invest in the Phoenix market. Unlike other desert cities such as Las Vegas, the Phoenix area has nearly UNLIMITED land to build out, which means supply will never become limited in future years. Rents in Phoenix generally are lower than other big cities, while the supply of rentals is usually a bit higher than other markets. Thats a recipe for disaster for investors. Unless an investor gets in with a sure thing positive cash flow, I wouldn’t walk..I’d RUN away from that market if I planned on holding the property long term.
What most of the articles don’t tell you is that the many of the so called “investors” are really institutional investors,ie, organizations that purchase in bulk directly from the banks and then flip. The banks can afford to sell in bulk at greatly reduced discounts….why ? Because the Feds are subsidizing the banks loses. You don’t like it ? Blame Obama.
ParticipantI’d rather be dead than invest in the Phoenix market. Unlike other desert cities such as Las Vegas, the Phoenix area has nearly UNLIMITED land to build out, which means supply will never become limited in future years. Rents in Phoenix generally are lower than other big cities, while the supply of rentals is usually a bit higher than other markets. Thats a recipe for disaster for investors. Unless an investor gets in with a sure thing positive cash flow, I wouldn’t walk..I’d RUN away from that market if I planned on holding the property long term.
What most of the articles don’t tell you is that the many of the so called “investors” are really institutional investors,ie, organizations that purchase in bulk directly from the banks and then flip. The banks can afford to sell in bulk at greatly reduced discounts….why ? Because the Feds are subsidizing the banks loses. You don’t like it ? Blame Obama.
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