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Bob
Participant[quote=5yearwaiter]Bob, How mortgage rates spike happens if Bernanke pull out the Fed feeding to treasuries?. I know I am not up to your level of guess interms of bond market etc – so this question.[/quote]
Thats a good question, so let me try to explain it as best I can.
Yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasury securities are typically used to set long-term mortgage rates. Loans with short initial terms (1-, 3-, and 5- year ARMs are used for shorter-term securities.) So when bond yields drop, typically, conventional mortgage rates fall as well. But, when yields rise, so do mortgage rates. Why? If a lender chooses to sell your mortgage loan to an investor, the lender will likely use Treasury yields as a benchmark for value.
As for Bernanke, when he made the decision to purchase securities, he did so with the goal of reducing bond yields, with the clear intention of lowering mortgage rates. This policy was implemented with the hopes of kickstarting the economy and the real estate market out of its deflationary cycle. But the only way to sustain such low rates will be for the Fed to continue purchasing securities. At some point this summer, Bernanke will have to make an important decision on whether or not to continue this policy. If he continues the policy, that will be a clear indication that the economy hasn’t yet turned the corner…but it will also be a red flag for future inflation.
Participant[quote=5yearwaiter]Bob, How mortgage rates spike happens if Bernanke pull out the Fed feeding to treasuries?. I know I am not up to your level of guess interms of bond market etc – so this question.[/quote]
Thats a good question, so let me try to explain it as best I can.
Yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasury securities are typically used to set long-term mortgage rates. Loans with short initial terms (1-, 3-, and 5- year ARMs are used for shorter-term securities.) So when bond yields drop, typically, conventional mortgage rates fall as well. But, when yields rise, so do mortgage rates. Why? If a lender chooses to sell your mortgage loan to an investor, the lender will likely use Treasury yields as a benchmark for value.
As for Bernanke, when he made the decision to purchase securities, he did so with the goal of reducing bond yields, with the clear intention of lowering mortgage rates. This policy was implemented with the hopes of kickstarting the economy and the real estate market out of its deflationary cycle. But the only way to sustain such low rates will be for the Fed to continue purchasing securities. At some point this summer, Bernanke will have to make an important decision on whether or not to continue this policy. If he continues the policy, that will be a clear indication that the economy hasn’t yet turned the corner…but it will also be a red flag for future inflation.
Participant[quote=5yearwaiter]Bob, How mortgage rates spike happens if Bernanke pull out the Fed feeding to treasuries?. I know I am not up to your level of guess interms of bond market etc – so this question.[/quote]
Thats a good question, so let me try to explain it as best I can.
Yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasury securities are typically used to set long-term mortgage rates. Loans with short initial terms (1-, 3-, and 5- year ARMs are used for shorter-term securities.) So when bond yields drop, typically, conventional mortgage rates fall as well. But, when yields rise, so do mortgage rates. Why? If a lender chooses to sell your mortgage loan to an investor, the lender will likely use Treasury yields as a benchmark for value.
As for Bernanke, when he made the decision to purchase securities, he did so with the goal of reducing bond yields, with the clear intention of lowering mortgage rates. This policy was implemented with the hopes of kickstarting the economy and the real estate market out of its deflationary cycle. But the only way to sustain such low rates will be for the Fed to continue purchasing securities. At some point this summer, Bernanke will have to make an important decision on whether or not to continue this policy. If he continues the policy, that will be a clear indication that the economy hasn’t yet turned the corner…but it will also be a red flag for future inflation.
Participant[quote=5yearwaiter]Bob, How mortgage rates spike happens if Bernanke pull out the Fed feeding to treasuries?. I know I am not up to your level of guess interms of bond market etc – so this question.[/quote]
Thats a good question, so let me try to explain it as best I can.
Yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasury securities are typically used to set long-term mortgage rates. Loans with short initial terms (1-, 3-, and 5- year ARMs are used for shorter-term securities.) So when bond yields drop, typically, conventional mortgage rates fall as well. But, when yields rise, so do mortgage rates. Why? If a lender chooses to sell your mortgage loan to an investor, the lender will likely use Treasury yields as a benchmark for value.
As for Bernanke, when he made the decision to purchase securities, he did so with the goal of reducing bond yields, with the clear intention of lowering mortgage rates. This policy was implemented with the hopes of kickstarting the economy and the real estate market out of its deflationary cycle. But the only way to sustain such low rates will be for the Fed to continue purchasing securities. At some point this summer, Bernanke will have to make an important decision on whether or not to continue this policy. If he continues the policy, that will be a clear indication that the economy hasn’t yet turned the corner…but it will also be a red flag for future inflation.
Participant[quote=sdduuuude]
You gotta lotta nerve, there Bob, or should I call you “member for 3 weeks Bob” ?[/quote]Flattery will get you nowhere.
Participant[quote=sdduuuude]
You gotta lotta nerve, there Bob, or should I call you “member for 3 weeks Bob” ?[/quote]Flattery will get you nowhere.
Participant[quote=sdduuuude]
You gotta lotta nerve, there Bob, or should I call you “member for 3 weeks Bob” ?[/quote]Flattery will get you nowhere.
Participant[quote=sdduuuude]
You gotta lotta nerve, there Bob, or should I call you “member for 3 weeks Bob” ?[/quote]Flattery will get you nowhere.
Participant[quote=sdduuuude]
You gotta lotta nerve, there Bob, or should I call you “member for 3 weeks Bob” ?[/quote]Flattery will get you nowhere.
Participant[quote]I really don’t understand how they keep interest rates under 5%. The Fed pumping money into treasuries? Then the treasuries bubble pops and we’re all going to die? In what scenario do interest rates increase and housing prices stay the same? Is that possible?[/quote]
I posted this in another thread, but it might help to answer your questions.
I have considerable knowledge of the bond market and fed policy. All I can say is trust me…the bond market is a bubble just waiting to burst. Back in Q1 when the Feds finally realized that demand for US treasuries was weakening, they took drastic measures of last resort…measures that Bernanke was hoping to avoid. Which is to say, the Feds started buying US treasuries in what some might describe as a last ditch panic effort to avoid a depression. So far, Bernanke’s actions seem to be working in the short term, as buying treasuries has had the effect of lowering mortgage rates to record low levels – and as a result, has created a real estate buying frenzy among investors and first timers.
The problem for the Fed, and they are openly discussing it now, is that in order to avoid continued deflation, they have created inflation, and potentially hyper inflation. Later this summer Bernanke will have to make a very important decision…which is to say, he will have to decide whether or not to pull back on future Fed investment in US treasuries. If he decides to pull out, you will see the stock market drop, and at the same time, you will see mortgage rates spike.
Participant[quote]I really don’t understand how they keep interest rates under 5%. The Fed pumping money into treasuries? Then the treasuries bubble pops and we’re all going to die? In what scenario do interest rates increase and housing prices stay the same? Is that possible?[/quote]
I posted this in another thread, but it might help to answer your questions.
I have considerable knowledge of the bond market and fed policy. All I can say is trust me…the bond market is a bubble just waiting to burst. Back in Q1 when the Feds finally realized that demand for US treasuries was weakening, they took drastic measures of last resort…measures that Bernanke was hoping to avoid. Which is to say, the Feds started buying US treasuries in what some might describe as a last ditch panic effort to avoid a depression. So far, Bernanke’s actions seem to be working in the short term, as buying treasuries has had the effect of lowering mortgage rates to record low levels – and as a result, has created a real estate buying frenzy among investors and first timers.
The problem for the Fed, and they are openly discussing it now, is that in order to avoid continued deflation, they have created inflation, and potentially hyper inflation. Later this summer Bernanke will have to make a very important decision…which is to say, he will have to decide whether or not to pull back on future Fed investment in US treasuries. If he decides to pull out, you will see the stock market drop, and at the same time, you will see mortgage rates spike.
Participant[quote]I really don’t understand how they keep interest rates under 5%. The Fed pumping money into treasuries? Then the treasuries bubble pops and we’re all going to die? In what scenario do interest rates increase and housing prices stay the same? Is that possible?[/quote]
I posted this in another thread, but it might help to answer your questions.
I have considerable knowledge of the bond market and fed policy. All I can say is trust me…the bond market is a bubble just waiting to burst. Back in Q1 when the Feds finally realized that demand for US treasuries was weakening, they took drastic measures of last resort…measures that Bernanke was hoping to avoid. Which is to say, the Feds started buying US treasuries in what some might describe as a last ditch panic effort to avoid a depression. So far, Bernanke’s actions seem to be working in the short term, as buying treasuries has had the effect of lowering mortgage rates to record low levels – and as a result, has created a real estate buying frenzy among investors and first timers.
The problem for the Fed, and they are openly discussing it now, is that in order to avoid continued deflation, they have created inflation, and potentially hyper inflation. Later this summer Bernanke will have to make a very important decision…which is to say, he will have to decide whether or not to pull back on future Fed investment in US treasuries. If he decides to pull out, you will see the stock market drop, and at the same time, you will see mortgage rates spike.
Participant[quote]I really don’t understand how they keep interest rates under 5%. The Fed pumping money into treasuries? Then the treasuries bubble pops and we’re all going to die? In what scenario do interest rates increase and housing prices stay the same? Is that possible?[/quote]
I posted this in another thread, but it might help to answer your questions.
I have considerable knowledge of the bond market and fed policy. All I can say is trust me…the bond market is a bubble just waiting to burst. Back in Q1 when the Feds finally realized that demand for US treasuries was weakening, they took drastic measures of last resort…measures that Bernanke was hoping to avoid. Which is to say, the Feds started buying US treasuries in what some might describe as a last ditch panic effort to avoid a depression. So far, Bernanke’s actions seem to be working in the short term, as buying treasuries has had the effect of lowering mortgage rates to record low levels – and as a result, has created a real estate buying frenzy among investors and first timers.
The problem for the Fed, and they are openly discussing it now, is that in order to avoid continued deflation, they have created inflation, and potentially hyper inflation. Later this summer Bernanke will have to make a very important decision…which is to say, he will have to decide whether or not to pull back on future Fed investment in US treasuries. If he decides to pull out, you will see the stock market drop, and at the same time, you will see mortgage rates spike.
Participant[quote]I really don’t understand how they keep interest rates under 5%. The Fed pumping money into treasuries? Then the treasuries bubble pops and we’re all going to die? In what scenario do interest rates increase and housing prices stay the same? Is that possible?[/quote]
I posted this in another thread, but it might help to answer your questions.
I have considerable knowledge of the bond market and fed policy. All I can say is trust me…the bond market is a bubble just waiting to burst. Back in Q1 when the Feds finally realized that demand for US treasuries was weakening, they took drastic measures of last resort…measures that Bernanke was hoping to avoid. Which is to say, the Feds started buying US treasuries in what some might describe as a last ditch panic effort to avoid a depression. So far, Bernanke’s actions seem to be working in the short term, as buying treasuries has had the effect of lowering mortgage rates to record low levels – and as a result, has created a real estate buying frenzy among investors and first timers.
The problem for the Fed, and they are openly discussing it now, is that in order to avoid continued deflation, they have created inflation, and potentially hyper inflation. Later this summer Bernanke will have to make a very important decision…which is to say, he will have to decide whether or not to pull back on future Fed investment in US treasuries. If he decides to pull out, you will see the stock market drop, and at the same time, you will see mortgage rates spike.
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