[betting on fall]

Quote below from the Caine Mutiny. Old roomate was a navy officer who said this still captures things perfectly:

“The first thing you’ve got to learn about this ship is that she was designed by geniuses to be run by idiots. This is the engine room. To operate, all you need is any group of well-trained monkeys. Ninety-nine percent of everything we do is strict routine. Only one percent requires creative intelligence.”

[betting on fall]

Quote below from the Caine Mutiny. Old roomate was a navy officer who said this still captures things perfectly:

“The first thing you’ve got to learn about this ship is that she was designed by geniuses to be run by idiots. This is the engine room. To operate, all you need is any group of well-trained monkeys. Ninety-nine percent of everything we do is strict routine. Only one percent requires creative intelligence.”

[betting on fall]

bsrsharam-
good points, and I agree that wealth effect will reduce spending, but its probably spending that shouldn’t have been going on in the first place.

My frustration is that for years we pay lip service to the fact that we want the “middle class” and “public servants”- teachers, police officers, military personnel- to be able to buy a house in the communities in which they work.

The answer to this problem to date has been building 50 or 100 income restricted units a year, which clearly is next to useless.

Now, falling prices might make this possible again- a teacher’s salary might be enough to buy a house, like it was for my wife in 1996 (I married into San Diego housing wealth).

Instead of the next housing article featuring someone whining about how their loan officer lied to them and now they can’t afford their house, I want the reporter to talk to a local cop or local teacher who has been renting- or commuting absurd distances- who is now thinks they may actually be able to buy in the community in which they work.
Heck- I don’t know many reporters who make enough to afford a house in San Diego. They could just interview themselves and make my point.

[betting on fall]

bsrsharam-
good points, and I agree that wealth effect will reduce spending, but its probably spending that shouldn’t have been going on in the first place.

My frustration is that for years we pay lip service to the fact that we want the “middle class” and “public servants”- teachers, police officers, military personnel- to be able to buy a house in the communities in which they work.

The answer to this problem to date has been building 50 or 100 income restricted units a year, which clearly is next to useless.

Now, falling prices might make this possible again- a teacher’s salary might be enough to buy a house, like it was for my wife in 1996 (I married into San Diego housing wealth).

Instead of the next housing article featuring someone whining about how their loan officer lied to them and now they can’t afford their house, I want the reporter to talk to a local cop or local teacher who has been renting- or commuting absurd distances- who is now thinks they may actually be able to buy in the community in which they work.
Heck- I don’t know many reporters who make enough to afford a house in San Diego. They could just interview themselves and make my point.

[betting on fall]

I too agree that the foreclosures will cause a lot of short term pain, but we will have a healthier and better local economy when people are only spending 30% or less of their income on housing, and the rest is either saved or spent in the community. San Diego employeers will have a much easier time attracting workers too.

Funny how affordable housing is supposed to be a good thing until all houses are suddenly getting more affordable at the same time.

[betting on fall]

I too agree that the foreclosures will cause a lot of short term pain, but we will have a healthier and better local economy when people are only spending 30% or less of their income on housing, and the rest is either saved or spent in the community. San Diego employeers will have a much easier time attracting workers too.

Funny how affordable housing is supposed to be a good thing until all houses are suddenly getting more affordable at the same time.

[betting on fall]

This chart won’t tell you exactly what it is spent on, but it will tell you who gets it:
http://www.co.san-diego.ca.us/ttc/insert_allocated.html

[betting on fall]

This chart won’t tell you exactly what it is spent on, but it will tell you who gets it:
http://www.co.san-diego.ca.us/ttc/insert_allocated.html

[betting on fall]

Here’s a SOLD house at 30% loss.
I recall this one might have been on the block at the last REDC auction, but I can’t pull up anything to confirm that.

6883 Halifax Street, 92119 (Del Cerro/Allied Gardens)
Sale price 8/30/04- $735,000
Sale price 9/07/07- $514,500

This is a newer (2003) home in a very central area. While this is the kind of drop I expect to see in outlying/overbuilt areas, its a surprise to see it here. As negative as I am about the market, these folks got a good deal and these kinds of prices make me consider getting back in the game.

The last sale price is provided via tax records I was able to access from a non-public source.
Zillow shows the 2004 sale and the early 2007 “sale” where the bank took it back for 519,430. Funny thing is the zeestimate in this place is still $771,000-
http://www.zillow.com/Charts.htm?chartDuration=5years&testAds=false&zpid=51080327

[betting on fall]

Here’s a SOLD house at 30% loss.
I recall this one might have been on the block at the last REDC auction, but I can’t pull up anything to confirm that.

6883 Halifax Street, 92119 (Del Cerro/Allied Gardens)
Sale price 8/30/04- $735,000
Sale price 9/07/07- $514,500

This is a newer (2003) home in a very central area. While this is the kind of drop I expect to see in outlying/overbuilt areas, its a surprise to see it here. As negative as I am about the market, these folks got a good deal and these kinds of prices make me consider getting back in the game.

The last sale price is provided via tax records I was able to access from a non-public source.
Zillow shows the 2004 sale and the early 2007 “sale” where the bank took it back for 519,430. Funny thing is the zeestimate in this place is still $771,000-
http://www.zillow.com/Charts.htm?chartDuration=5years&testAds=false&zpid=51080327

[betting on fall]

Temeculaguy is right. We could probably go on forever with this. I am already thinking of some bank repo condos I have seen at half price. We could exclude bank repos, riverside county, and any places where the stench of mortgage fraud still lingers. (all three rules resulting in the exclusion of Temecula listings)

But then we would be missing half the fun!

This thread can be a great way to gauge just how bad things are getting out there. After seeing some houses get marked way down then sell all summer, now I am seeing some houses get way marked down, then still NOT selling (see highwood st house above). How low do they need to go to sell a house in this market??? This thread might help us find out.

[betting on fall]

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076009343-7760_Highwood_Ave_La_Mesa_CA_91941

4 beds, 3.5 bath, 3,987 sqft
purchased 01/03/2006 for $1,029,385 (new from developer)
Original list- $1.1-1.2m. Now on market 246 days.
Current list- $750,000.

$279,385 or 27% drop- if it goes for list price.

ocrenter- this is in the Serramar development in La Mesa. Great place for a “wish I waited” since the entire development sold at the height of the market. This place is the largest model, but if it sells, it will be close to the lowest price anyone paid for any model.

[betting on fall]

I suspect they want to make some monthly quota- or get you closed before they lower prices/add incentives. See if they will negotiate some sweetener if you do it by the end of the month.

In fact, the advice you are going to get here is probably to walk away, either using some loophole to get your deposit or screw the deposit. Even if your not ready to do that I suspect you have substantial leverage to improve your deal. Look closely into prices/incentives they are offering now vs. when you signed up.

If you are willing to say what project this is, I am sure you will get some much more valuable comments from the board.

[betting on fall]

Since I think my comments above started some of the back and forth here, I thought I’d clarify a few of my thoughts on this.

I think its these “non-profit housing counselors” who are bugging me. If their client truly was misled or defrauded, or the loan servicer is making a mistake, these “experts” should get a lawyer on the phone ASAP to save the person’s house and possibly get them a ton of money back. Don’t just parade them to the press as a “victim” if they really are one- do something about it.

But these “housing counselors” are not doing any favors for their clients if all they do is yell and scream and demand that the mortgage payment be lowered 10% a month. Even if they negotiate this change, they still have a client drowning in debt and unable to save for other needs. Sending the keys to the lender is the best “modification” lots of people can make, and they need to start getting that advice. Too many people are going to be slaves to bad financial decisions they made in 2005-2006.

[betting on fall]

I follow this micro-market area, and I have to say this MIGHT work out for him. Not many houses for sale in the immediate area, and its a nice area- there is a little private swim/tennis club right there and a very good elementary school around the corner. He might get lucky and find a buyer concerned about things other than price.

My favorite WTF???? flip attempt in that area is this one: http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076073081-6544_Linda_Ln_San_Diego_CA_92120

It quickly sold just this July for $825K. Its one of those scary original 1960’s never rehabed places that the original owner apparently died in.
It was then listed again almost immediately for $899K- with apparently zero work done to the place. Even most of the MLS pictures are the same as last time. The only difference is the owner/agent (yes, a realtor bought it) is offering plans for a remodel in the sale price this time. I just can’t figure out the logic on this one at all.

[Author]

Posts