Forum Replies Created
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AuthorPosts
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bearvine
ParticipantSix months later-
Bear Stearns is dead, we are bailing out our banks with US funny money and help from the Saudis, the rest of the world is buying us up with their stonger currencies, Budweiser is for sale, Ford is liquidating assets, gas is beyond belief with no end in sight, a gallon of OJ costs $10 in Hawaii, and the foreclosure market hasn’t even started yet.
Banks are offering bulk portfolios of homes in default at significant discounts.
These are homes that may not be for sale, are not in foreclosure, are “preforeclosure” and the banks want to wash their hands.
Many are in Temecula/Murrieta, and basically the offer is say $2m of mortgages for $1m. Now you own the paper, and you foreclose and kick out the former owner.
And the deals get better as the portfolio gets larger.
So TG, when you talked about the banks holding back, well, they are now looking for buyers. Can’t sell to other banks anymore, so now package deals for investors.
So many of you scoffed at my $75 sq/ft prediction in Jan 08, it will happen. Might only be a few homes, and you may never have a chance to buy it, but it’ll happen.
Also as loans are harder to get, and interest rates rise, that will freeze out many more buyers and prices will continue to drop.
For those of you who absolutely have to buy right now, get a 30yr fixed loan and make sure you are around $100 sq ft. And make sure you REALLY LOVE the home.
The seemingly great prices are like fools gold, it only seems great because prices were at artificial, bubble heights. The theory of “well I’ll be here for 10 years” justification is also problematic. But life happens, and what if you need to move for good or bad reasons, your seemingly stable income disappears, etc., and now you are underwater and can’t get out?
It is not truly a buyer’s market yet, there are deals, but be careful.
ParticipantSix months later-
Bear Stearns is dead, we are bailing out our banks with US funny money and help from the Saudis, the rest of the world is buying us up with their stonger currencies, Budweiser is for sale, Ford is liquidating assets, gas is beyond belief with no end in sight, a gallon of OJ costs $10 in Hawaii, and the foreclosure market hasn’t even started yet.
Banks are offering bulk portfolios of homes in default at significant discounts.
These are homes that may not be for sale, are not in foreclosure, are “preforeclosure” and the banks want to wash their hands.
Many are in Temecula/Murrieta, and basically the offer is say $2m of mortgages for $1m. Now you own the paper, and you foreclose and kick out the former owner.
And the deals get better as the portfolio gets larger.
So TG, when you talked about the banks holding back, well, they are now looking for buyers. Can’t sell to other banks anymore, so now package deals for investors.
So many of you scoffed at my $75 sq/ft prediction in Jan 08, it will happen. Might only be a few homes, and you may never have a chance to buy it, but it’ll happen.
Also as loans are harder to get, and interest rates rise, that will freeze out many more buyers and prices will continue to drop.
For those of you who absolutely have to buy right now, get a 30yr fixed loan and make sure you are around $100 sq ft. And make sure you REALLY LOVE the home.
The seemingly great prices are like fools gold, it only seems great because prices were at artificial, bubble heights. The theory of “well I’ll be here for 10 years” justification is also problematic. But life happens, and what if you need to move for good or bad reasons, your seemingly stable income disappears, etc., and now you are underwater and can’t get out?
It is not truly a buyer’s market yet, there are deals, but be careful.
ParticipantSix months later-
Bear Stearns is dead, we are bailing out our banks with US funny money and help from the Saudis, the rest of the world is buying us up with their stonger currencies, Budweiser is for sale, Ford is liquidating assets, gas is beyond belief with no end in sight, a gallon of OJ costs $10 in Hawaii, and the foreclosure market hasn’t even started yet.
Banks are offering bulk portfolios of homes in default at significant discounts.
These are homes that may not be for sale, are not in foreclosure, are “preforeclosure” and the banks want to wash their hands.
Many are in Temecula/Murrieta, and basically the offer is say $2m of mortgages for $1m. Now you own the paper, and you foreclose and kick out the former owner.
And the deals get better as the portfolio gets larger.
So TG, when you talked about the banks holding back, well, they are now looking for buyers. Can’t sell to other banks anymore, so now package deals for investors.
So many of you scoffed at my $75 sq/ft prediction in Jan 08, it will happen. Might only be a few homes, and you may never have a chance to buy it, but it’ll happen.
Also as loans are harder to get, and interest rates rise, that will freeze out many more buyers and prices will continue to drop.
For those of you who absolutely have to buy right now, get a 30yr fixed loan and make sure you are around $100 sq ft. And make sure you REALLY LOVE the home.
The seemingly great prices are like fools gold, it only seems great because prices were at artificial, bubble heights. The theory of “well I’ll be here for 10 years” justification is also problematic. But life happens, and what if you need to move for good or bad reasons, your seemingly stable income disappears, etc., and now you are underwater and can’t get out?
It is not truly a buyer’s market yet, there are deals, but be careful.
ParticipantSix months later-
Bear Stearns is dead, we are bailing out our banks with US funny money and help from the Saudis, the rest of the world is buying us up with their stonger currencies, Budweiser is for sale, Ford is liquidating assets, gas is beyond belief with no end in sight, a gallon of OJ costs $10 in Hawaii, and the foreclosure market hasn’t even started yet.
Banks are offering bulk portfolios of homes in default at significant discounts.
These are homes that may not be for sale, are not in foreclosure, are “preforeclosure” and the banks want to wash their hands.
Many are in Temecula/Murrieta, and basically the offer is say $2m of mortgages for $1m. Now you own the paper, and you foreclose and kick out the former owner.
And the deals get better as the portfolio gets larger.
So TG, when you talked about the banks holding back, well, they are now looking for buyers. Can’t sell to other banks anymore, so now package deals for investors.
So many of you scoffed at my $75 sq/ft prediction in Jan 08, it will happen. Might only be a few homes, and you may never have a chance to buy it, but it’ll happen.
Also as loans are harder to get, and interest rates rise, that will freeze out many more buyers and prices will continue to drop.
For those of you who absolutely have to buy right now, get a 30yr fixed loan and make sure you are around $100 sq ft. And make sure you REALLY LOVE the home.
The seemingly great prices are like fools gold, it only seems great because prices were at artificial, bubble heights. The theory of “well I’ll be here for 10 years” justification is also problematic. But life happens, and what if you need to move for good or bad reasons, your seemingly stable income disappears, etc., and now you are underwater and can’t get out?
It is not truly a buyer’s market yet, there are deals, but be careful.
ParticipantLink to an old thread:
http://piggington.com/bear_creek_and_de_luz
Here’s part of my post on Jan 3 2008, a recap of the better areas in the Temecula Valley:
“Changing the name of Hwy 79 to Temecula Parkway was a nice touch, and more places to go on 79 is nice, and good to see the mall expanding.
Still convinced there is gonna be a big hurt coming. I’ll stand by a previous post, $75 sq ft in Morgan Hill, it can get there. 10% drop for 2008 is conservative and misguided. 20% you can count on. As beautiful as Temecula is, it is just to far away, was too reliant on the RE industry as a whole, and the trickle down effect will hit it hard. No need to get into all of this again though, this area has been covered in previous threads, and if you don’t see it you never will until it is to late.
So let’s talk about the higher end areas a bit.
Many of the wealthy in the area who profited on the RE area over the years are obviously quite concerned. We’ve had friends in the area ask us if we would come in and start speculating again. Nope, not yet. All the higher end plans have gone stagnant, and yes the higher end areas will get hit. The higher end areas were reliant on SD, LA, and OC relocates moving into the area, you can’t sell anywhere now, so no more buyers. How does the saying go, the bigger they are, the harder they fall.For a rundown of such areas from North to South:
Canyon Lake:
Older parts in the gated area have always kept the best properties down, but they still went crazy with the bubble. Even though waterfront is cool, Lake Elsinore as a whole is dragging it down to the depths.La Cresta (Murietta):
5 acre lots, horse properties, a bit far for many, but a nice area. This area took off with the bubble as OC, SD, and LA folks were able to sell their 2500 sq ft for a mill, and get a 4000sq ft on 5 acres for that same mill. In 2001 we bought a 5 acre lot for 400k and sold for 500k in a matter of months. This area has been struggling with sales for some time, and yes it will drop significantly. That same 5 acre lot and house that sold for a mill in 01, might’ve sold for 2 and a change at peak, and in the late 90’s could’ve been had for 600k tops. Lot’s of room to fall.Bear Creek:
Love this area. Was a $100,000 away from living there. I know they wished they sold it to me now. Gated with the only private course and country club in the area, this is where many of the elite and power brokers of the area live. Room to fall? oh yeah. On the east side of Bear Creek, a developer went bad years ago, and those half completed homes still sit there, for years now in the same state, right next to the people that did move in. A Resale in that part can be had cheap as it is the least desirable area within Bear Creek. You have townhomes in the area that sold for 400k in 00 and 01, that were resold at a mill during peak, and some misguided sellers still asf 8-900 for. They are about 3000 sq ft and are nice. There are also smaller condos, and then there are the semi customs and customs.Meadoview:
Not quite as nice as the above, but it does have some nice homes, is in the middle of Temecula, wide variety to choose from. This area was built up in the 80’s and 90’s when Temecula was dirt roads, so you can imagine what the original costs were, and why this area has so much room for depreciation. Beware the need to replace your septic tank in this area, that has been an issue for a number of people there. About a year ago, we went and lowballed about a dozen homes, all said no way, and everyone would sell today at 10-20% less than I offered.Area between Meadoview and Nicholas (can’t remember the name of it for the life of me):
Was supposed to be semi custom on 1 acre lots. DEAD.Wine Country:
This is a big area, and is a matter of lifestyle, what you are looking for etc. Rancon was going to build the area of all areas near the entrance of WC, to coincide with 3 new wineries. As far as the wineries go, I believe that is full steam ahead, but have heard nothing of the res project. It is an ambitious plan, and this was my target for permanent residence. If the same plan is in place, I would look forward to still doing it now at a better price. But they may not have enough buyers regardless. The farther out you go, the older the home, the farther the prices will drop. Not to mention all the spec builders stuck with inventory, they may be happy with 50 cents on the dollar.DeLuz/Rennaisance Estates
They would love to sell to you. Some homes here are super cool as on a clear day you can see the Pacific to one side, and Temecula to the other. Hard to get to.Rancho Santiago/Santiago Estates:
Right in town, some nice places. Older the home, farther it will drop. Beware bad septic, and stay away from anything near the proposed hospital. Those properties are already on the cheap, and they’ve been trying to sell for a couple of years with no shot. Coincidentally, these residents (NIMBY) are one reason why the hospital hasn’t broken ground.That’s something that hasn’t been touched as a pro con, is the inadequate hospital facilities in the area. That hospital on 79 is needed in the worst way, but thanks to politics don’t hold your breath for the opening.
On that note, of all these areas one has to think about emergency services. If you have a heart attack in Bear Creek, Meadowview, Rancho Santiago, chances are you’ll be ok. De Luz, Wine Country outskirts, La Cresta, it might take awhile for the ambulance to get there.
In regards to the higher education center which would’ve been a coup for Temecula that was to be built towards Zevo, that’s quashed and is a dead project.
I still think it’s a great area, but if you want to be safe buying, pay no more that 2001 prices. And I still think there is room to fall from there.
The global economy and recession will be worse than you think. The farther away from an economic center, the worse it will be.”
Looking back I did leave out some areas like Country Road Estates.
As far as Morgan Hill/Valley, etc comparing to these areas, NOPE. Apples vs oranges.
ParticipantLink to an old thread:
http://piggington.com/bear_creek_and_de_luz
Here’s part of my post on Jan 3 2008, a recap of the better areas in the Temecula Valley:
“Changing the name of Hwy 79 to Temecula Parkway was a nice touch, and more places to go on 79 is nice, and good to see the mall expanding.
Still convinced there is gonna be a big hurt coming. I’ll stand by a previous post, $75 sq ft in Morgan Hill, it can get there. 10% drop for 2008 is conservative and misguided. 20% you can count on. As beautiful as Temecula is, it is just to far away, was too reliant on the RE industry as a whole, and the trickle down effect will hit it hard. No need to get into all of this again though, this area has been covered in previous threads, and if you don’t see it you never will until it is to late.
So let’s talk about the higher end areas a bit.
Many of the wealthy in the area who profited on the RE area over the years are obviously quite concerned. We’ve had friends in the area ask us if we would come in and start speculating again. Nope, not yet. All the higher end plans have gone stagnant, and yes the higher end areas will get hit. The higher end areas were reliant on SD, LA, and OC relocates moving into the area, you can’t sell anywhere now, so no more buyers. How does the saying go, the bigger they are, the harder they fall.For a rundown of such areas from North to South:
Canyon Lake:
Older parts in the gated area have always kept the best properties down, but they still went crazy with the bubble. Even though waterfront is cool, Lake Elsinore as a whole is dragging it down to the depths.La Cresta (Murietta):
5 acre lots, horse properties, a bit far for many, but a nice area. This area took off with the bubble as OC, SD, and LA folks were able to sell their 2500 sq ft for a mill, and get a 4000sq ft on 5 acres for that same mill. In 2001 we bought a 5 acre lot for 400k and sold for 500k in a matter of months. This area has been struggling with sales for some time, and yes it will drop significantly. That same 5 acre lot and house that sold for a mill in 01, might’ve sold for 2 and a change at peak, and in the late 90’s could’ve been had for 600k tops. Lot’s of room to fall.Bear Creek:
Love this area. Was a $100,000 away from living there. I know they wished they sold it to me now. Gated with the only private course and country club in the area, this is where many of the elite and power brokers of the area live. Room to fall? oh yeah. On the east side of Bear Creek, a developer went bad years ago, and those half completed homes still sit there, for years now in the same state, right next to the people that did move in. A Resale in that part can be had cheap as it is the least desirable area within Bear Creek. You have townhomes in the area that sold for 400k in 00 and 01, that were resold at a mill during peak, and some misguided sellers still asf 8-900 for. They are about 3000 sq ft and are nice. There are also smaller condos, and then there are the semi customs and customs.Meadoview:
Not quite as nice as the above, but it does have some nice homes, is in the middle of Temecula, wide variety to choose from. This area was built up in the 80’s and 90’s when Temecula was dirt roads, so you can imagine what the original costs were, and why this area has so much room for depreciation. Beware the need to replace your septic tank in this area, that has been an issue for a number of people there. About a year ago, we went and lowballed about a dozen homes, all said no way, and everyone would sell today at 10-20% less than I offered.Area between Meadoview and Nicholas (can’t remember the name of it for the life of me):
Was supposed to be semi custom on 1 acre lots. DEAD.Wine Country:
This is a big area, and is a matter of lifestyle, what you are looking for etc. Rancon was going to build the area of all areas near the entrance of WC, to coincide with 3 new wineries. As far as the wineries go, I believe that is full steam ahead, but have heard nothing of the res project. It is an ambitious plan, and this was my target for permanent residence. If the same plan is in place, I would look forward to still doing it now at a better price. But they may not have enough buyers regardless. The farther out you go, the older the home, the farther the prices will drop. Not to mention all the spec builders stuck with inventory, they may be happy with 50 cents on the dollar.DeLuz/Rennaisance Estates
They would love to sell to you. Some homes here are super cool as on a clear day you can see the Pacific to one side, and Temecula to the other. Hard to get to.Rancho Santiago/Santiago Estates:
Right in town, some nice places. Older the home, farther it will drop. Beware bad septic, and stay away from anything near the proposed hospital. Those properties are already on the cheap, and they’ve been trying to sell for a couple of years with no shot. Coincidentally, these residents (NIMBY) are one reason why the hospital hasn’t broken ground.That’s something that hasn’t been touched as a pro con, is the inadequate hospital facilities in the area. That hospital on 79 is needed in the worst way, but thanks to politics don’t hold your breath for the opening.
On that note, of all these areas one has to think about emergency services. If you have a heart attack in Bear Creek, Meadowview, Rancho Santiago, chances are you’ll be ok. De Luz, Wine Country outskirts, La Cresta, it might take awhile for the ambulance to get there.
In regards to the higher education center which would’ve been a coup for Temecula that was to be built towards Zevo, that’s quashed and is a dead project.
I still think it’s a great area, but if you want to be safe buying, pay no more that 2001 prices. And I still think there is room to fall from there.
The global economy and recession will be worse than you think. The farther away from an economic center, the worse it will be.”
Looking back I did leave out some areas like Country Road Estates.
As far as Morgan Hill/Valley, etc comparing to these areas, NOPE. Apples vs oranges.
ParticipantLink to an old thread:
http://piggington.com/bear_creek_and_de_luz
Here’s part of my post on Jan 3 2008, a recap of the better areas in the Temecula Valley:
“Changing the name of Hwy 79 to Temecula Parkway was a nice touch, and more places to go on 79 is nice, and good to see the mall expanding.
Still convinced there is gonna be a big hurt coming. I’ll stand by a previous post, $75 sq ft in Morgan Hill, it can get there. 10% drop for 2008 is conservative and misguided. 20% you can count on. As beautiful as Temecula is, it is just to far away, was too reliant on the RE industry as a whole, and the trickle down effect will hit it hard. No need to get into all of this again though, this area has been covered in previous threads, and if you don’t see it you never will until it is to late.
So let’s talk about the higher end areas a bit.
Many of the wealthy in the area who profited on the RE area over the years are obviously quite concerned. We’ve had friends in the area ask us if we would come in and start speculating again. Nope, not yet. All the higher end plans have gone stagnant, and yes the higher end areas will get hit. The higher end areas were reliant on SD, LA, and OC relocates moving into the area, you can’t sell anywhere now, so no more buyers. How does the saying go, the bigger they are, the harder they fall.For a rundown of such areas from North to South:
Canyon Lake:
Older parts in the gated area have always kept the best properties down, but they still went crazy with the bubble. Even though waterfront is cool, Lake Elsinore as a whole is dragging it down to the depths.La Cresta (Murietta):
5 acre lots, horse properties, a bit far for many, but a nice area. This area took off with the bubble as OC, SD, and LA folks were able to sell their 2500 sq ft for a mill, and get a 4000sq ft on 5 acres for that same mill. In 2001 we bought a 5 acre lot for 400k and sold for 500k in a matter of months. This area has been struggling with sales for some time, and yes it will drop significantly. That same 5 acre lot and house that sold for a mill in 01, might’ve sold for 2 and a change at peak, and in the late 90’s could’ve been had for 600k tops. Lot’s of room to fall.Bear Creek:
Love this area. Was a $100,000 away from living there. I know they wished they sold it to me now. Gated with the only private course and country club in the area, this is where many of the elite and power brokers of the area live. Room to fall? oh yeah. On the east side of Bear Creek, a developer went bad years ago, and those half completed homes still sit there, for years now in the same state, right next to the people that did move in. A Resale in that part can be had cheap as it is the least desirable area within Bear Creek. You have townhomes in the area that sold for 400k in 00 and 01, that were resold at a mill during peak, and some misguided sellers still asf 8-900 for. They are about 3000 sq ft and are nice. There are also smaller condos, and then there are the semi customs and customs.Meadoview:
Not quite as nice as the above, but it does have some nice homes, is in the middle of Temecula, wide variety to choose from. This area was built up in the 80’s and 90’s when Temecula was dirt roads, so you can imagine what the original costs were, and why this area has so much room for depreciation. Beware the need to replace your septic tank in this area, that has been an issue for a number of people there. About a year ago, we went and lowballed about a dozen homes, all said no way, and everyone would sell today at 10-20% less than I offered.Area between Meadoview and Nicholas (can’t remember the name of it for the life of me):
Was supposed to be semi custom on 1 acre lots. DEAD.Wine Country:
This is a big area, and is a matter of lifestyle, what you are looking for etc. Rancon was going to build the area of all areas near the entrance of WC, to coincide with 3 new wineries. As far as the wineries go, I believe that is full steam ahead, but have heard nothing of the res project. It is an ambitious plan, and this was my target for permanent residence. If the same plan is in place, I would look forward to still doing it now at a better price. But they may not have enough buyers regardless. The farther out you go, the older the home, the farther the prices will drop. Not to mention all the spec builders stuck with inventory, they may be happy with 50 cents on the dollar.DeLuz/Rennaisance Estates
They would love to sell to you. Some homes here are super cool as on a clear day you can see the Pacific to one side, and Temecula to the other. Hard to get to.Rancho Santiago/Santiago Estates:
Right in town, some nice places. Older the home, farther it will drop. Beware bad septic, and stay away from anything near the proposed hospital. Those properties are already on the cheap, and they’ve been trying to sell for a couple of years with no shot. Coincidentally, these residents (NIMBY) are one reason why the hospital hasn’t broken ground.That’s something that hasn’t been touched as a pro con, is the inadequate hospital facilities in the area. That hospital on 79 is needed in the worst way, but thanks to politics don’t hold your breath for the opening.
On that note, of all these areas one has to think about emergency services. If you have a heart attack in Bear Creek, Meadowview, Rancho Santiago, chances are you’ll be ok. De Luz, Wine Country outskirts, La Cresta, it might take awhile for the ambulance to get there.
In regards to the higher education center which would’ve been a coup for Temecula that was to be built towards Zevo, that’s quashed and is a dead project.
I still think it’s a great area, but if you want to be safe buying, pay no more that 2001 prices. And I still think there is room to fall from there.
The global economy and recession will be worse than you think. The farther away from an economic center, the worse it will be.”
Looking back I did leave out some areas like Country Road Estates.
As far as Morgan Hill/Valley, etc comparing to these areas, NOPE. Apples vs oranges.
ParticipantLink to an old thread:
http://piggington.com/bear_creek_and_de_luz
Here’s part of my post on Jan 3 2008, a recap of the better areas in the Temecula Valley:
“Changing the name of Hwy 79 to Temecula Parkway was a nice touch, and more places to go on 79 is nice, and good to see the mall expanding.
Still convinced there is gonna be a big hurt coming. I’ll stand by a previous post, $75 sq ft in Morgan Hill, it can get there. 10% drop for 2008 is conservative and misguided. 20% you can count on. As beautiful as Temecula is, it is just to far away, was too reliant on the RE industry as a whole, and the trickle down effect will hit it hard. No need to get into all of this again though, this area has been covered in previous threads, and if you don’t see it you never will until it is to late.
So let’s talk about the higher end areas a bit.
Many of the wealthy in the area who profited on the RE area over the years are obviously quite concerned. We’ve had friends in the area ask us if we would come in and start speculating again. Nope, not yet. All the higher end plans have gone stagnant, and yes the higher end areas will get hit. The higher end areas were reliant on SD, LA, and OC relocates moving into the area, you can’t sell anywhere now, so no more buyers. How does the saying go, the bigger they are, the harder they fall.For a rundown of such areas from North to South:
Canyon Lake:
Older parts in the gated area have always kept the best properties down, but they still went crazy with the bubble. Even though waterfront is cool, Lake Elsinore as a whole is dragging it down to the depths.La Cresta (Murietta):
5 acre lots, horse properties, a bit far for many, but a nice area. This area took off with the bubble as OC, SD, and LA folks were able to sell their 2500 sq ft for a mill, and get a 4000sq ft on 5 acres for that same mill. In 2001 we bought a 5 acre lot for 400k and sold for 500k in a matter of months. This area has been struggling with sales for some time, and yes it will drop significantly. That same 5 acre lot and house that sold for a mill in 01, might’ve sold for 2 and a change at peak, and in the late 90’s could’ve been had for 600k tops. Lot’s of room to fall.Bear Creek:
Love this area. Was a $100,000 away from living there. I know they wished they sold it to me now. Gated with the only private course and country club in the area, this is where many of the elite and power brokers of the area live. Room to fall? oh yeah. On the east side of Bear Creek, a developer went bad years ago, and those half completed homes still sit there, for years now in the same state, right next to the people that did move in. A Resale in that part can be had cheap as it is the least desirable area within Bear Creek. You have townhomes in the area that sold for 400k in 00 and 01, that were resold at a mill during peak, and some misguided sellers still asf 8-900 for. They are about 3000 sq ft and are nice. There are also smaller condos, and then there are the semi customs and customs.Meadoview:
Not quite as nice as the above, but it does have some nice homes, is in the middle of Temecula, wide variety to choose from. This area was built up in the 80’s and 90’s when Temecula was dirt roads, so you can imagine what the original costs were, and why this area has so much room for depreciation. Beware the need to replace your septic tank in this area, that has been an issue for a number of people there. About a year ago, we went and lowballed about a dozen homes, all said no way, and everyone would sell today at 10-20% less than I offered.Area between Meadoview and Nicholas (can’t remember the name of it for the life of me):
Was supposed to be semi custom on 1 acre lots. DEAD.Wine Country:
This is a big area, and is a matter of lifestyle, what you are looking for etc. Rancon was going to build the area of all areas near the entrance of WC, to coincide with 3 new wineries. As far as the wineries go, I believe that is full steam ahead, but have heard nothing of the res project. It is an ambitious plan, and this was my target for permanent residence. If the same plan is in place, I would look forward to still doing it now at a better price. But they may not have enough buyers regardless. The farther out you go, the older the home, the farther the prices will drop. Not to mention all the spec builders stuck with inventory, they may be happy with 50 cents on the dollar.DeLuz/Rennaisance Estates
They would love to sell to you. Some homes here are super cool as on a clear day you can see the Pacific to one side, and Temecula to the other. Hard to get to.Rancho Santiago/Santiago Estates:
Right in town, some nice places. Older the home, farther it will drop. Beware bad septic, and stay away from anything near the proposed hospital. Those properties are already on the cheap, and they’ve been trying to sell for a couple of years with no shot. Coincidentally, these residents (NIMBY) are one reason why the hospital hasn’t broken ground.That’s something that hasn’t been touched as a pro con, is the inadequate hospital facilities in the area. That hospital on 79 is needed in the worst way, but thanks to politics don’t hold your breath for the opening.
On that note, of all these areas one has to think about emergency services. If you have a heart attack in Bear Creek, Meadowview, Rancho Santiago, chances are you’ll be ok. De Luz, Wine Country outskirts, La Cresta, it might take awhile for the ambulance to get there.
In regards to the higher education center which would’ve been a coup for Temecula that was to be built towards Zevo, that’s quashed and is a dead project.
I still think it’s a great area, but if you want to be safe buying, pay no more that 2001 prices. And I still think there is room to fall from there.
The global economy and recession will be worse than you think. The farther away from an economic center, the worse it will be.”
Looking back I did leave out some areas like Country Road Estates.
As far as Morgan Hill/Valley, etc comparing to these areas, NOPE. Apples vs oranges.
ParticipantLink to an old thread:
http://piggington.com/bear_creek_and_de_luz
Here’s part of my post on Jan 3 2008, a recap of the better areas in the Temecula Valley:
“Changing the name of Hwy 79 to Temecula Parkway was a nice touch, and more places to go on 79 is nice, and good to see the mall expanding.
Still convinced there is gonna be a big hurt coming. I’ll stand by a previous post, $75 sq ft in Morgan Hill, it can get there. 10% drop for 2008 is conservative and misguided. 20% you can count on. As beautiful as Temecula is, it is just to far away, was too reliant on the RE industry as a whole, and the trickle down effect will hit it hard. No need to get into all of this again though, this area has been covered in previous threads, and if you don’t see it you never will until it is to late.
So let’s talk about the higher end areas a bit.
Many of the wealthy in the area who profited on the RE area over the years are obviously quite concerned. We’ve had friends in the area ask us if we would come in and start speculating again. Nope, not yet. All the higher end plans have gone stagnant, and yes the higher end areas will get hit. The higher end areas were reliant on SD, LA, and OC relocates moving into the area, you can’t sell anywhere now, so no more buyers. How does the saying go, the bigger they are, the harder they fall.For a rundown of such areas from North to South:
Canyon Lake:
Older parts in the gated area have always kept the best properties down, but they still went crazy with the bubble. Even though waterfront is cool, Lake Elsinore as a whole is dragging it down to the depths.La Cresta (Murietta):
5 acre lots, horse properties, a bit far for many, but a nice area. This area took off with the bubble as OC, SD, and LA folks were able to sell their 2500 sq ft for a mill, and get a 4000sq ft on 5 acres for that same mill. In 2001 we bought a 5 acre lot for 400k and sold for 500k in a matter of months. This area has been struggling with sales for some time, and yes it will drop significantly. That same 5 acre lot and house that sold for a mill in 01, might’ve sold for 2 and a change at peak, and in the late 90’s could’ve been had for 600k tops. Lot’s of room to fall.Bear Creek:
Love this area. Was a $100,000 away from living there. I know they wished they sold it to me now. Gated with the only private course and country club in the area, this is where many of the elite and power brokers of the area live. Room to fall? oh yeah. On the east side of Bear Creek, a developer went bad years ago, and those half completed homes still sit there, for years now in the same state, right next to the people that did move in. A Resale in that part can be had cheap as it is the least desirable area within Bear Creek. You have townhomes in the area that sold for 400k in 00 and 01, that were resold at a mill during peak, and some misguided sellers still asf 8-900 for. They are about 3000 sq ft and are nice. There are also smaller condos, and then there are the semi customs and customs.Meadoview:
Not quite as nice as the above, but it does have some nice homes, is in the middle of Temecula, wide variety to choose from. This area was built up in the 80’s and 90’s when Temecula was dirt roads, so you can imagine what the original costs were, and why this area has so much room for depreciation. Beware the need to replace your septic tank in this area, that has been an issue for a number of people there. About a year ago, we went and lowballed about a dozen homes, all said no way, and everyone would sell today at 10-20% less than I offered.Area between Meadoview and Nicholas (can’t remember the name of it for the life of me):
Was supposed to be semi custom on 1 acre lots. DEAD.Wine Country:
This is a big area, and is a matter of lifestyle, what you are looking for etc. Rancon was going to build the area of all areas near the entrance of WC, to coincide with 3 new wineries. As far as the wineries go, I believe that is full steam ahead, but have heard nothing of the res project. It is an ambitious plan, and this was my target for permanent residence. If the same plan is in place, I would look forward to still doing it now at a better price. But they may not have enough buyers regardless. The farther out you go, the older the home, the farther the prices will drop. Not to mention all the spec builders stuck with inventory, they may be happy with 50 cents on the dollar.DeLuz/Rennaisance Estates
They would love to sell to you. Some homes here are super cool as on a clear day you can see the Pacific to one side, and Temecula to the other. Hard to get to.Rancho Santiago/Santiago Estates:
Right in town, some nice places. Older the home, farther it will drop. Beware bad septic, and stay away from anything near the proposed hospital. Those properties are already on the cheap, and they’ve been trying to sell for a couple of years with no shot. Coincidentally, these residents (NIMBY) are one reason why the hospital hasn’t broken ground.That’s something that hasn’t been touched as a pro con, is the inadequate hospital facilities in the area. That hospital on 79 is needed in the worst way, but thanks to politics don’t hold your breath for the opening.
On that note, of all these areas one has to think about emergency services. If you have a heart attack in Bear Creek, Meadowview, Rancho Santiago, chances are you’ll be ok. De Luz, Wine Country outskirts, La Cresta, it might take awhile for the ambulance to get there.
In regards to the higher education center which would’ve been a coup for Temecula that was to be built towards Zevo, that’s quashed and is a dead project.
I still think it’s a great area, but if you want to be safe buying, pay no more that 2001 prices. And I still think there is room to fall from there.
The global economy and recession will be worse than you think. The farther away from an economic center, the worse it will be.”
Looking back I did leave out some areas like Country Road Estates.
As far as Morgan Hill/Valley, etc comparing to these areas, NOPE. Apples vs oranges.
ParticipantRocco vs Tiger, Hipmatt vs TG
Glad I stayed home to watch the Open- and get the added entertainment of the two Temecula experts going at it.
Just to clarify, Hipmatt you do not get the love here Rocco might, but you do know the area. TG you get the props, but no one can compare to Tiger. In anything.
You both bring up great points, and clearly the length of time in the area gives you a unique perspective. And in IMO, you are the only two I give street cred about knowledge of the area.
My experience and knowledge of the area comes from a different perspective.
I think it is a great area, and in 10 years neither of you will recognize the area as it will have developed into much more of a tourist destination.
While it works to gets there, Temecula will be hit with some very difficult times, but will withstand it much better than its neighbor, Murrieta.
……..I just deleted the rest of the post, and will get into the rest perhaps some other time.
ParticipantRocco vs Tiger, Hipmatt vs TG
Glad I stayed home to watch the Open- and get the added entertainment of the two Temecula experts going at it.
Just to clarify, Hipmatt you do not get the love here Rocco might, but you do know the area. TG you get the props, but no one can compare to Tiger. In anything.
You both bring up great points, and clearly the length of time in the area gives you a unique perspective. And in IMO, you are the only two I give street cred about knowledge of the area.
My experience and knowledge of the area comes from a different perspective.
I think it is a great area, and in 10 years neither of you will recognize the area as it will have developed into much more of a tourist destination.
While it works to gets there, Temecula will be hit with some very difficult times, but will withstand it much better than its neighbor, Murrieta.
……..I just deleted the rest of the post, and will get into the rest perhaps some other time.
ParticipantRocco vs Tiger, Hipmatt vs TG
Glad I stayed home to watch the Open- and get the added entertainment of the two Temecula experts going at it.
Just to clarify, Hipmatt you do not get the love here Rocco might, but you do know the area. TG you get the props, but no one can compare to Tiger. In anything.
You both bring up great points, and clearly the length of time in the area gives you a unique perspective. And in IMO, you are the only two I give street cred about knowledge of the area.
My experience and knowledge of the area comes from a different perspective.
I think it is a great area, and in 10 years neither of you will recognize the area as it will have developed into much more of a tourist destination.
While it works to gets there, Temecula will be hit with some very difficult times, but will withstand it much better than its neighbor, Murrieta.
……..I just deleted the rest of the post, and will get into the rest perhaps some other time.
ParticipantRocco vs Tiger, Hipmatt vs TG
Glad I stayed home to watch the Open- and get the added entertainment of the two Temecula experts going at it.
Just to clarify, Hipmatt you do not get the love here Rocco might, but you do know the area. TG you get the props, but no one can compare to Tiger. In anything.
You both bring up great points, and clearly the length of time in the area gives you a unique perspective. And in IMO, you are the only two I give street cred about knowledge of the area.
My experience and knowledge of the area comes from a different perspective.
I think it is a great area, and in 10 years neither of you will recognize the area as it will have developed into much more of a tourist destination.
While it works to gets there, Temecula will be hit with some very difficult times, but will withstand it much better than its neighbor, Murrieta.
……..I just deleted the rest of the post, and will get into the rest perhaps some other time.
ParticipantRocco vs Tiger, Hipmatt vs TG
Glad I stayed home to watch the Open- and get the added entertainment of the two Temecula experts going at it.
Just to clarify, Hipmatt you do not get the love here Rocco might, but you do know the area. TG you get the props, but no one can compare to Tiger. In anything.
You both bring up great points, and clearly the length of time in the area gives you a unique perspective. And in IMO, you are the only two I give street cred about knowledge of the area.
My experience and knowledge of the area comes from a different perspective.
I think it is a great area, and in 10 years neither of you will recognize the area as it will have developed into much more of a tourist destination.
While it works to gets there, Temecula will be hit with some very difficult times, but will withstand it much better than its neighbor, Murrieta.
……..I just deleted the rest of the post, and will get into the rest perhaps some other time.
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