[bearishgurl]

[quote=spdrun]I don’t know about not flying. On the plane back from CA about a year ago, I had a stop in PHX. I sat next to a Chinese lady who had just bought a condo in AZ because she wanted a rental for her son, who had moved there after college.

Foreigners are buying up a lot of property as well (good thing in my book – I don’t consider myself very American).

Real problem with both Phoenix and LV is climate and lack of water. This won’t get better with global warming, and they’re borderline intolerable 5 months out of the year as it is![/quote]

spdrun, I don’t think a woman traveling alone would necessarily drive 2500 mi (from NY to PHX) by herself just to buy an investment condo and for no other reason. I agree about her reason for buying. I’ve talked to a lot of people whose kids (and grandkids) are constantly moving seeking a lower rent when their rents are raised. They don’t like to see their (out-of-state) grandkids living such a transient life so are searching for a property they can reasonably rent to their kids for the long term.

The road-traveling investors I saw last summer were mostly couples with a few individual men.

Are your sure your “Chinese” traveling companion wasn’t actually an American? My instincts tell me she probably was if she had a son going to college and now employed in the US.

Yes, PHX and LV ARE unbearably hot. But they appeal to winterbirds during their cooler, winter months and low-income families due to having an overall lower cost of housing than the more desirable, coastal cities.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=jstoesz]No one argues that the housing mortgage deduction is not simulative of housing prices…obviously it is. Is it stimulative for the economy in general? Seems to me, the answer is no. It incentivizes people to put their savings in non productive assets. If houses were cheaper and the market not artificially skewed towards housing, that money could be put to much better uses. The same thing goes for you alls argument on business investment deductions.[/quote]

jstoesz, which better uses than investment RE would you suggest for one’s money they have currently set aside for investment purposes?

[bearishgurl]

[quote=briansd1]Are you predicting increasing prices this winter?

I think the holidays are more about people having fun. The buyers in Vegas want to be landlords, not residents. And being a landlord has downsides that many are not prepared for.

Anyway, banks are foreclosing again and approving short sales.[/quote]

I don’t know if prices will increase there (due to massive “shadow inventory” trickling out) but feel you will have to compete everywhere against all-cash investors from out of state.

EVERY CO mtn town I stayed at least one night each in last summer (six towns in 2011) had individuals and couples in the breakfast room and in the jacuzzi at night headed for Phoenix and Vegas to buy up rentals for their “retirement income” and to possibly use for a vacation home (LV) or for their children/parents to rent from them. Some were from CO and others were from the midwest and WY (traveling thru CO). ALL were in search of deeply-discounted bargains and (presumably) prepared to consummate cash deals on the spot (if they found something). Ages were 55-65 who were driving all gamut of (expensive) SUVs and even motorcycles!

Just like us, they were staying in chain lodging everywhere, taking advantage of the “free night” promotions and accumulating lodging points and using them!

The Rockies are but just one little corner of the world. En route to my brethren two weeks prior to visiting the Rockies, I observed my Albuquerque motor lodge also filled with the same type of folks with the same goals … albeit coming from the Eastern Seaboard, the South and the Southwest part of the country en route to LV and Phoenix, but didn’t have as much time to converse with them.

These individual-investor types don’t typically fly. A lot of them just retired (or one of the couple did) and drive their own vehicles (often luxury 4WDs) and MC’s so they can see all the country and attractions they couldn’t see while a worker-bee and maybe also see grandkids or other relatives on the way up and/or back home :=]

[bearishgurl]

[quote=briansd1]. . . My prediction is that the summer buying spree will give way to a winter lull as out of town investors retreat for the year. We will see….[/quote]

brian, Thanksgiving week and the last week of the year are the BIGGEST weeks for “tourism” in Vegas, fueled MOSTLY by CA visitors. Since LV’s “bargain-basement RE prices” have been highly publicized all over the nation, I don’t see a “lull” in visitors or investors. Lake Mead is also a “snowbird” hangout and has many areas around it to park RV’s and store boats, replete with “landings” equipped with boat gas stations and mini-marts. The average boat towed there from out of state is about 36 ft long. The people towing all this stuff (incl an extra small car to go the city in) are mostly boomers with money. Lots of them will no doubt try to shop for a low-cost vacation home/condo in LV, Henderson or Boulder City.

Living in a $60K condo there (PT) with their extra Honda Civic parked (covered) in their pkg space and paying property taxes is far cheaper in the long run than gassing up an RV to tow toys there from Indiana for two RT’s per year.

All manner of “cigarette boats” and jetskis can be permanently stored at low cost at several points around the lake and in Henderson. Imagine Laughlin 30-fold. You, in a passenger vehicle, just don’t want to be on I-15 heading south (to SB, CA and beyond) on Columbus Day, Veteran’s Day or the Sunday after TK :=].

[bearishgurl]

[quote=squat250]I left law school in 1995 with $95,000.00 in debt. Not sure what that is inflation-adjusted. Probably a lot.

Je ne regrette rien, but, I easily could’ve and froma financial planner’s perspective, shouldve, borrowed less. If I did it over, I’d have atteneded a different school and left with 20-30k debt, if that.

Timing is everything. That debt was a good deal at the time for me, in retrospect. It still might be a good deal. It’s just, there’s less room to change direction nowadays. You better be damn sure what you’re doing when you have 250,000 in student debt.

BG, not sure about the “under 45” criteria. You could be 50 and easily work till you’re 80.

My Mom is older than that and stillworks most days.

Indeed, perhaps the debt and the degree would give some individuals a purpose, mission and reason to keep living![/quote]

scaredy, I agree that $250K is a whopping sum to borrow, leaving a former student with crippling debt and making it next to impossible to move on with his or her life (buy vehicle/home and/or get married/have children) at the age he or she normally would.

However, 1995 (when you graduated) was 17 years ago, when new lawyers could still get secure gov’t jobs (like yours) and state and local gov’ts were still hiring. Is your agency still hiring? And if so, how many newly-minted lawyers do they have lined up to compete for ONE entry-level opening?

Of course, nearly ALL boomers would like to continue to work (even PT) indefinitely. Those that don’t have secure employment (where they can’t be discharged without cause) are likely either insecure about their continued employment or unemployed. Once unemployed and over 50, it doesn’t matter WHO you are or what you know … you will very likely never be hired again, at least in SD County.

Maybe it’s different in other locales where many young people (potential employees) have fled for more opportunity or left for college and never returned.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=bobby]up to $20K? that’s gonna be tough to get a degree.
I think there’s a rule of thumb for how much to borrow: The amount borrow should not exceed the expected annual income for the first few years.

I borrowed $225,000 for school. Very glad I did. Would definitely do it again. Wouldn’t be where I am today without this loan.

I wouldn’t borrow for some lib art degree but for a practical field, it’s worth every penny.[/quote]

bobby, are your SURE you would encourage your kid to take out this size of a student loan TODAY … even for a “practical” degree?

And if you don’t mind my asking, how long ago did you finish borrowing this amt and how much left of your student loan do you still have to pay?

[bearishgurl]

…a study by mortgage data firm Ellie Mae of new loans closed in June found that credit scores for approved mortgages remain extraordinarily high. Fannie and Freddie’s refinancings had an average FICO score of 767 and average equity percentages of 29 percent. Home purchase loans had average down payments of 21 percent and 763 FICOs. Even the conventional home purchase loan applications that lenders rejected had high credit scores and down payments by historical standards: 738 average FICOs and 19 percent down payments. FHA, which used to average somewhere in the mid-600s for FICO scores on approvals, appears to be continuing to cherry-pick applicants as well, based on the Ellie Mae survey data.
What does all this mean? If there’s a loosening of underwriting standards coming down the road, there are scant hints of it at the moment.

See: http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2012/aug/05/tp-are-lenders-loosening-up-dont-bet-on-it/?page=2#article

For a conventional loan, it appears the OP’s current FICO score of 750 is still too low to qualify or right on the edge. And I agree with flu here who suggested that sd gal hold back some cash for a rainy day … not to allocate her entire $110K savings as a downpayment but perhaps put 20-30% down. Of course, it doesn’t hurt to check CU’s and “portfolio lenders,” though (if there are still any in existence).

[bearishgurl]

[quote=flu] . . . And some of you just sit here and mentally masturbate and theorize about how to many more money….[/quote]

Speak for yourself, flu ….

http://piggington.com/ot_prevailing_sfh_rental_prices_in_carmel_valley

[bearishgurl]

[quote=flu]You know… Sometimes people…. you guys can be such jerks.

Like you folks never made decisions in life that didn’t work out….[/quote]

I’ve made plenty of decisions that didn’t quite work out. If they had, I wouldn’t be sitting here lamenting with y’all as a “diversion” to my work … I’d have sailed off into the sunset l-o-o-ong ago … :=0

[bearishgurl]

[quote=Diego Mamani]From a 2008 posting on how to spend your bubble money (if you cashed out in ~2005):

[quote=sd gal]I cashed out in May 2005 selling my 2b/2b condo I bought in 1999. I kept almost all the profit in CD until last year which was roughly $240k.

I felt like I should start using them. So I bought a 4 prex in TX. I got them for a lot cheaper than market value as I knew some people there. I remodeled 3 out of 4 units and rented out.

It turned out being a landlord for 4 tenents is a nightmere. At least one unit forget to pay rent each month, something breaks down all the time.. and so on…. it was suppose to cash flow even before tax refund, but it didn’t turn out to be that way…

I just want to know…what do you think about the housing market in TX? Austin to be exact… I am thinking to sell soon, just so I can get away from those horrible tenants and bad property management company….I am willing to bear some loss… since it is all bubble money..well, I did reserch quite bit to time best time to sell tho.

My questions are

how did you spend your bubble money?

If you know about housing market in TX, what is your prediction for 2008?[/quote][/quote]

Understand everything now….

sd gal wouldn’t be the first person who left Cali to invest in TX, subsequently lost their shirt and returned, nor will she be the last.

I’ve posted here before that TX has several laws on the books which have the effect of keeping its residential property from appreciating:

see: http://piggington.com/what_is_the_equivalent_home_in_san_diego_to_this_158k_home_in_au?page=1

[bearishgurl]

[quote=Diego Mamani][quote=bearishgurl]why don’t you give it another year or so and get your FICO score up to 765-770?[/quote]I don’t think her FICO score is the problem, it’s the SS in her credit history.[/quote]

I’ve read in several recent financial news reports that in order to qualify for the more competitive conventional mortgage rates and terms, one needs to now have a FICO score of about 770 (from 720 in recent years).

Where’s HLS when we need him?

[bearishgurl]

I agree with SDR to shop around by phone but why don’t you give it another year or so and get your FICO score up to 765-770? Then you may be able to qualify for “prime” or “Alt-A” terms instead of being stiffed for prepayment penalties, up front points and higher interest rates, etc.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=sd gal]Personal loan of 12% interest rate is the standard rate I found in many bank websites. My credit score is around 750 even after the short sale. I didn’t take any equity out of my property, I actually lost over 100k paying off secound mortgage myself. Tried to be responsible. Bank only forgave me about 20-25k total.[/quote]

I take it then that the $25K forgiven was off your first TD and that you had to pay off your 2nd TD because you had a gov’t employer who would find it “moral turpitude” and cause for discipline if you didn’t?

Borrowers who take cash out of their pockets to close a SS are in the minority and usually do so because they are subject to periodic background checks at work which include their credit reports.

Did you buy your property (that you sold short) at the height of the market for an inflated price, sd gal?

[bearishgurl]

[quote=dumbrenter]It is very short-sighted view. Those same children are the market of tomorrow. They are the next doctors/lawyers/convicts, the next set of spenders who keep economy going and next set of savers who ‘might’ take care of their old folks.
Imagine that everybody decides not to have kids. In 5 years the elementary schools close, daycare business is bust, in 10 years all the school related jobs are gone. No more new workers entering workforce…so who is going to pay for their unemployment and your social security? Who is going to rent your properties and take your bank loans?
There is a reason why all agrarian cultures place a lot of value in having kids.
Children are not luxury (whining and personal stories about neices notwithstanding), and since the society as a whole benefits from them, the society as a whole should shoulder the responsibility for them too, like giving better tax breaks.[/quote]

Except the US is not an “agrarian culture” anymore and most American parents expect their kids to eventually support themselves working in a (dwindling number of) “white-collar” job. And the planet is really overpopulated (some parts of it MUCH more than others).

Knowing what I know and have seen throughout life, I don’t think people should have kids who can’t afford them. It’s akin to asking taxpayers who did not create the problem to help pay to support them. It’s a parasitic request.

I think it’s really okay to be childless all your life, even if part of a “couple.” There’s nothing wrong with this at all.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=no_such_reality][quote=bearishgurl]I’m just curious how sd gal obtained $110K in two years since her SS yet she managed to stiff her lender by how much at closing?
[/quote]

Kudos to her. She was either smart enough not to impoverish herself with a bad loan or she can save enough that she’s piled $100K in a couple years.

Frankly, more people should play hardball with the banks and force them to foreclose. The loans are bad for them, the borrower. The borrowers never should have taken those loans and the banks never should have made them.

You should repay the loans you take, but frankly, the loans border on unconscionable. The refi’s to ‘save’ them are even more unconscionable taking a far greater share of their income to maintain than equivalent housing will cost them.

Debt is evil. In can be used smartly but borrowing money should never be easy because debt enslaves you.[/quote]

Agree, if sd gal’s purchase was just an unwise one at the wrong time and her SS was shorting “purchase money” mtg(s). But if taking “cash out” on her part in any way, shape or form was a direct causation of her SS, then she already took her “equity” (and perhaps much more). In this case, she made her own bed and should lie in it.

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