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bearishgurl
Participant[quote=flu][quote=sdduuuude]Actually, my new prediction is – your event horizon will hit the day after I close escrow.[/quote]
add me into the mix on a primary upgrade, and the entire CarmelV will fall into the ocean.[/quote]
flu, you KNOW CarmelV has a ways to go in order to do that ;=)
Participant[quote=toots]What prompted you to say “Sequestration appears likely” ?
. . .
I don’t see sequestration having an effect on real estate sales in San Diego.[/quote]
Agree with this, 100%.
ParticipantIn its request for proposal, Washington said it wants expertise on how marijuana is “grown, cultivated harvested, cured and processed,” along with “experience with cannabis testing” and “establishing quality standards.”
The best candidate also needs to figure out how to properly regulate the business — and forecast how much marijuana each region of the state is going to demand…
http://money.cnn.com/2013/02/01/smallbusiness/marijuana-job/index.html?source=cnn_bin
Better yet, reserve one of these spaces for a “meet-and-greet session” (to gather resumes) and advertise heavily for it in all local dispensaries 🙂
http://sfpl.org/index.php?pg=0300000101
http://www.sfscottishrite.com/
etc …
In doing this, he will discover superior candidates and even “candidate teams” for the position.
Convincing most of them to move to WA state might be problematic, however :=0
Participant[quote=flu]Hey, now there’s a new type of government job…
Expert pothead…
http://money.cnn.com/2013/02/01/smallbusiness/marijuana-job/index.html?source=cnn_bin
Does it come with a pension?[/quote]
It’s time for newly-elected Gov. Inslee to give some serious thought to making a trip to So Cal this April to do some “recruiting” for the position :=D
http://www.coachella.com/faq2013.html
There, he’ll have a “captive audience” of “potential qualified applicants” to choose from :=0
Participant[quote=paramount]One thing this thread demonstrates to me is that many piggs are absolutely out of touch with what’s left of the middle class in SD.
Almost as if SD is the Capital District in the Hunger Games.[/quote]
paramount, I’ve always known exactly what “middle class” means in San Diego.
If you’re implying that CarmelV is a “middle class” area, you’ve got it all wrong.
If a person wants to move from a “middle class” area (such as Clairemont SD) to an upper-middle class area (such as CarmelV SD), they are going to have to pay more … sometimes MUCH more for a home. It is very possible that a certain Pigg may be able to fetch $125K more for his property in Clairemont in 2013 than he thinks will be possible … that is, if it is in top condition, is on a good street and has a good lot 🙂
Even though I don’t like mostly two-story gargantuan boxes mostly 6-8 feet from one another with poss HOA/MR, it stands to reason that, for investment purposes, “overpaying” by $125K for a property in CarmelV is highly preferable to “overpaying” by $125K in lower-priced Clairemont.
In a rising market, the act of “overpaying” is very subjective.
But I also realize that it will be a MUCH larger monthly cash outlay to live in CarmelV and can see where said Pigg is coming from.
Some `food for thought’ here:
What is CarmelV Middle really worth in comparison to sdduuuude’s five area school choices (++ CHOICE/VEEP/NCLB or whatever his kids qualify for). What about TPHS vs Madison (or other CHOICE, etc)? Is it really worth twice as much money as what his current home is worth? And what about just 6-7 short years from now, when his kids (twins?) graduate from HS. Do he and his spouse REALLY want to live in a gargantuan soul-less airplane hangar by themselves for which they felt they “overpaid” to get into in 2013? OR, will they make a killing reselling it for ~$500K more??
Or will the Clairemont they left behind be the ~new “happening hood” in 2020?
For a variety of reasons, I personally wouldn’t want to live in CarmelV even if I could afford it 🙂 Even though I haven’t seen it and don’t know where it is, I would probably be happier in sdduuuude’s old house (yes, even if my HS student-kid followed me), but that’s just me :=]
Participant[quote=sdduuuude]bg – that was an error. Thanks for noticing it. I fixed it. Only 2 short.
—
Well, ya. an inventory of 1 is enough if it is the right house.
First thing to note – the < $1M filter gets down to 14 homes right off the bat. My personal search results which filter on objective things gets me to 6. Of those 6, I could live in 2 of them. My wife could also live in two of them. That leaves 1 we could both live with. It is overpriced by $120,000. So, no. 60 (44, actually) is not enough.[/quote] sdduuuude, that's the "pricing" there. Not trying to lecture here (I'm re-e-e-eally not) but what YOU consider to be $120K "overpriced," is just the property that another buyer will not. If you are down to 14 current listings (out of 60) that you can actually afford, that area is still "doable" for you to make a deal in NOW, IMO. But if you and/or your spouse think they can only live in two out of the 14 (which all presumably “meet your filter criteria”), then either make an offer on one of the two, forget your “filter criteria” and have 14 to pick from, find a more affordable area to shop in, or stay put. Based upon your most recent post, it doesn’t sound like CarmelV may be the area for you, IMHO.
Again, not trying to be facetious, but based upon your latest post, just “real.”
I’m not trying to be a “pushy” realtor and am not, in fact, at the present time, a “Realtor.”
It’s NOT going to get much better “after the Super Bowl,” IF any better at all, and may very likely get worse. It doesn’t sound like too many owners in CarmelV are “distressed.” These owners can and most likely will “wait for a better day” to list their properties for sale.
And that “better day” (for sellers in SD County) is still in the near or far future (whichever “theory” one believes in). Even hanging on just a few more months will bring them more $$, IMHO.
sdduuuude, I have a couple of suggestions for you which you may have already heard:
(1) Place a ~lower offer on one or both of those two “short sales” in CarmelV (regardless of condition since you may be able to get the property ~150K below market) and see which one (if any) “bite” first, then rescind your other offer.
(2) Put your current home on the market NOW or ASAP after you ready it for the market. You may be surprised at how much you can now recover from the sale of it. The proceeds from the sale of it may now be enough to get you into a CarmelV property that you and/or your spouse would be “willing to live in” 🙂
ParticipantSome of you may already be aware that a personal injury award or student loan of ONE party is NOT divisible in a dissolution of marriage.
They belong solely to the party who sustained the injury or “benefited” from the education. In community property states (such as CA), neither are part of the “community” and thus neither are divisible property/debt.
As it should be.
Participant[quote=livinincali][quote=bearishgurl]
I am completely against this. I know several people (early gen-x-ers and boomers) who have deliberately taken out $65K to $120K in student loans AFTER the age of 45. I have NO IDEA who any of them think would hire them in this day and age after they obtained their lofty credentials. In all cases, this was an utterly foolish idea, IMHO.At any age, it is grossly unfair to those who kept their noses clean and only paid for the education their could afford in life. IOW, their “contemporaries” (who elected NOT to borrow for college) shouldn’t be “outgunned” in the job market by those who successfully “stole” a bachelor’s degree or even graduate degree!
A college “degree” is not something which can be repossessed. There is no collateral here. The benefits of a degree follow the former student until their deaths. Just like a personal injury award (a condition that follows the individual who sustained the injury until their death), the injury award/college debt legally belongs SOLELY to the affected person.[/quote]
These people will get bailed out at some point. Most likely the taxpayer as politicians look to buy irresponsible people votes. We did it with housing we’ll do it with college loans. It never ends.[/quote]
With housing, lenders who were bailed out at least ended up with something they could “sell,” (either thru SS, foreclosure or deed in lieu – in whatever condition it was in). And secured creditors such as RE lenders have the right to a release of the automatic stay a debtor acquires in BK.
Sallie Mae and private lenders who have to write off a student loan discharged in BK will have NOTHING.
There are NO TRUST DEEDS (or “mortgages,” in other states) filed on student loans because there is NO COLLATERAL given.
Different animals.
Participant[quote=patb]we may still be better off letting them discharge this debt.
we let corporations discharge debt in Chapter 11 and businesses are utterly ruthless, why do we put the dog on people who marry, have kids, etc..
If there is fraud, go after them, but, the system is awash in debt, that has to end.[/quote]
I am completely against this. I know several people (early gen-x-ers and boomers) who have deliberately taken out $65K to $120K in student loans AFTER the age of 45. I have NO IDEA who any of them think would hire them in this day and age after they obtained their lofty credentials. In all cases, this was an utterly foolish idea, IMHO.
At any age, it is grossly unfair to those who kept their noses clean and only paid for the education their could afford in life. IOW, their “contemporaries” (who elected NOT to borrow for college) shouldn’t be “outgunned” in the job market by those who successfully “stole” a bachelor’s degree or even graduate degree!
A college “degree” is not something which can be repossessed. There is no collateral here. The benefits of a degree follow the former student until their deaths. Just like a personal injury award (a condition that follows the individual who sustained the injury until their death), the injury award/college debt legally belongs SOLELY to the affected person.
February 1, 2013 at 11:12 AM in reply to: No money down loans are back…(psuedo-affluent borrowers only..) #758757Participant[quote=flu]Wow borrowing 50-80% of your portfolio, not having to cash out on your portfolio to pay for income/capital gains tax meanwhile, and still being able to deduct mortgage interest on the loan…..where do I sign up???[/quote]
I don’t think this makes too much sense for a “retired person” but it seems more palatable for a youngish professional just starting out or in mid-career.
Are these loans going to allow the purchase of investment properties?
flu, if any of the investment houses you do biz with offer similar programs and the answer is “yes” to the above question, why not inquire further on the exact terms, closing costs and loan limits, etc?
Participant[quote-sdduuuude]As for me, I’m pretty much in a position where I have to buy a move-up house this year. As such, my predictions will always be to the wish-ful thinking bearish side, even though the inventory situation indicates otherwise 🙂
I’m not religious but I pray for inventory every day.[/quote]
sdduuuude, I want to draw your attn to your recent update to your thread of 2 mos ago:
[quote=sdduuuude]An update for you. Wanted to get this done before the MASSIVE onrush of inventory that is coming to CV after the Super Bowl !!!!
62 homes for sale in 92130. 61 of them short.
< $1M. 16 for sale. 2 short. > $1M. 46 for sale. No short sales.Grrr. Down from 81 in late Nov.
I’m going to change my stats from 92130 to Carmel Valley Middle School. Redfin boundary isn’t quit right, but it’ll have to do. This cuts out a bunch of $2-million+ homes just south of San Dieguito road and an awkward section of 92130 that is in the Poway District.
44 homes for sale in CVMS area. 2 of those are short.
< $1M. 16 for sale. 2 short. > $1M. 28 for sale. No short sales.[/quote]http://piggington.com/nov_1_short_sale_rule_change#comment-226053
http://piggington.com/nov_1_short_sale_rule_change
I take it you meant two short sales instead of 61 short sales?
sdduuuude, if the (SFR?) inventory in CarmelV is now 62 (down from 81 in November), what are you waiting for? If 60 of these properties are now “available” (not “contingent” with deadbeat “owners” to possibly strip them and lender(s) who will play games with YOU, a prospective buyer), I’m simply not understanding why 60 is not enough inventory to choose from which to make offers.
This is astounding to me and is the main point I was trying to make here:
http://piggington.com/san_diego_inventory_sucks
You’ve been “looking” in this area for months or even years, no? If CarmelV is where you really want to be and you have the ability to move there, you should make it happen, forthwith, IMHO.
It’s not going to get any better than this, sdduuuude. And no, I am not a RE bull but I am fully cognizant of how the SD RE market and mortgage market works and consider myself a “realist.”
If it’s okay with you to “miss the boat,” far be it from me to judge. I’m sure you’re aware that you still have several (public) school choices (even without a CHOICE or zone transfer) for your kids (twins?):
http://www.sandi.net/site/default.aspx?domainid=4208
http://www.sandi.net/montgomerymiddle
I am confident it will all turn out okay for your family whatever you decide 🙂
Participant[quote=CA renter]BG,
Not sure if the article said what the wife did for a living, nor if they had any kind of money from inheritance, etc. They may well not be looking for “starter” homes (not in that price range), so they have the right to be picky.
We had spent over 10 years looking at hundreds of houses, and finally found what we wanted at the right price. We have zero regrets. For you, it might not be desirable to spend a lot of time looking for a house, but for other people it is worth it, and very much so.
You also have to realize that many of the Baby Boomers didn’t have college degrees, and many of the working-class neighborhoods back then were filled with other people very much like themselves: decent, hard-working, but not wealthy or aspirational. They had simple, but fairly well-maintained homes in decent neighborhoods with fairly low crime rates. Today, many of those same neighborhoods have been taken over by gangs and people who do not have the same beliefs about maintaining their homes and neighborhoods, and are a major contributing factor to the higher crime rates.
If today’s first-time buyers are better educated and generally older as a result of putting off a home purchase because they’ve pursued their educations and have worked their way up in the corporate world, they will expect more than the 23 year-old mechanic and receptionist wife of years past. That does not make them more “entitled,” it just means that they expect to live in a home and neighborhood with other people who are similarly situated.
We have to remember that we are all different, and times have most certainly changed. There is no reason for today’s buyers to be bullied by idiotic realtors into over-paying for homes when all the cards are stacked against them by way of artificially suppressed interest rates and artificially constrained home inventories along with the deluge of “investors” competing with them because of the Federal Reserve’s dangerous attempts to prop up asset prices in the face of stagnant/declining wages.[/quote]
CAR, you can’t possibly be suggesting that this couple spend “ten years” in mom’s back bedroom while they “pick” thru a dearth of inventory in SD’s finest coastal hoods, ESP during a (lengthy?) period of rising prices? Or while they wait for the economy and the PTB to “right themselves? Or should they?? And if so, do you actually think they can continue to be “picky” and also be able to successfully consummate the purchase of a 50-85 year-old “coastal” home costing under $750K?
IMHO, in ANY RE climate, 80-100 offers by ONE buyer in ONE year just reeks of agent/broker incompetency. Even a “layman” reading this article has got to ask themselves, “What is REALLY going on here?”
CAR, you must admit you didn’t make “dozens of offers.” 80-100 offers in one year is an average of two per week. This means they weren’t likely waiting months on answers from short sales. Instead, “equity sellers” were likely turning them down flat without countering (they were likely insulted) 🙂
This doesn’t speak well of their agent/broker’s competency.
$500K to $750K IS a “starter home” in those areas …. that is, IF one can be found that has had nothing done to it and does NOT sit on a premium lot, view lot or both.
These three areas weren’t full of SS’s OR REO’s. There were “very few” of both in all of them in years past. Why?? Again, a wealth of paid off properties and very high-equity (SFR) owners abound in those areas.
How on G@d’s earth did these buyers think they could “lowball” an “equity” seller in these areas and expect someone who doesn’t HAVE to sell to give their properties away?
The point I was making is that “firefighters” or ANY similarly-situated workers of “yesteryear” (college-educated or not) wouldn’t be looking for their first house in those three areas! Not even close.
H@ll, no.
The “expectations” of the vast majority of Gen Y have run amuck. It’s going to be interesting to see where the Standing’s “lofty expectations” end up when interest rates rise while they’re sleeping on mom’s pillows. What if they had to pay 10%+ for a prime conventional mortgage …. like “boomers” did? What would this do to their “expectations?” Gen Y (as FTB’s) have been “spoiled” by the availability of cheap “artificially-lowered” mortgage money. I’ll bet this couple in the OP article is staying with “her parents” (likely age 50-60) in a neighborhood that they feel they wouldn’t be caught dead making an offer in themselves! But it was “mom and dad’s” third house (after selling twice and moving up in equity).
The ‘hoods these youngsters are hoping to buy in are “move-up” areas, typically purchased by cash buyers and third-time buyers or higher. Many successful buyers in these areas are deep-pocketed enough to do a gut/remodel immediately after closing and before moving in. In essence, in their price range, most of the value is in the lot.
Oh, btw, those VA/FHA repo lists I spoke of? They came out once weekly in the SD Union for about 14 years.
There were plenty of properties on these lists to bid on in north county at the time. Yes, even in La Costa. At that time, there wasn’t a lot of housing there (that was “legal” and above-ground, in any case). The tract(s) that WERE there were situated on what we (in RE parlance) called a “Type `A’ Flood Plain.”
Of course, the lagoon has since been dredged a few times over and shored up on one end … that is, only AFTER lawsuits were filed … and adjudicated/settled.
And those two SD ‘hoods which we bought our govm’t REO’s in? They weren’t “gang-infested” back then and are not now. One of them has TWO renowned (SDUSD) schools within it (one with a very lo-o-o-ong waiting list) 🙂
….The low inventory has left homebuyers submitting multiple bids and upbidding each other, pushing up prices and putting a damper on the idea of finding a deal on their dream property, experts say….
Pray tell, WHY is a FTB searching for a “dream home?” Methinks that is supposed to come MUCH later in life.
That statement is a very apt synopsis of the “values problem” of many of today’s FTB’s.
Certainly, our “sample $500-$750K buyers” have a right to be picky … just not in the areas they have been “shopping” in, IMO.
Participant[quote=flyer]BG, although I, personally, did not have the same home buying experiences you mentioned with regard to many Boomers, I do agree with your analysis of the changing dynamics at play.
When I mentioned that it seems the home-buying experience is becoming more challening today, I was actually referring to the costs involved, etc., (especially if you actually want to own the property),compared to when I was purchasing the bulk of our properties.
I know everyone has their preferences, but much as UCGal mentioned, most of my family, and my wife’s family has always been drawn to NCC (others just coastal) for climate, schools, easy commutes, etc., long before that lifestyle became so in vogue with the current crop of buyers. NCC living is not really a new way of life as many seem to believe.
At any rate, regardless of preferences, everyone should try to enjoy life, because, as you also said, it is short, and there is much to do![/quote]
flyer, I didn’t realize RSF and other communities situated inside the covenant were considered “NCC.” Nor is Carmel Valley, where you have stated here that you purchased rental investments. I would consider both of these areas “inland” but not far from the “coastal zone” as is dtn Chula Vista (~1 mile from SD Bay).
Before the heavy development of Sorrento Valley/Sorrento Mesa and Carroll Cyn Rd in Scripps Ranch, dtn SD, Mission Valley and Kearny Mesa WERE where most of the jobs were.
My workplace has always been centered in or near dtn SD so living <= ten miles from THERE has always been my preference .... and actually still is. And, contrary to popular (often misinformed) belief, there are many top-rated schools in metro SD and south county.
Obviously, if you were based out of SD when you flew, your “workplace” was Lindbergh Field, no? If so, it stands to reason that your fav streets in Sunset Cliffs are far more convenient to LF than RSF 🙂
Climate, schools and easy commutes can be found in several areas of the county 🙂
That was the thrust of my previous post. A good portion of today’s young-family prospective buyers seem to be shunning entire swaths of the county and there is no reason for it. The “prospective FT buyers” in SD County that are still doing this in the current RE climate are making their own beds, causing them to sleep in them as “perpetual tenants.”
IOW, don’t whine that there is “nothing to buy” when it just isn’t true. “Pickiness” never got a buyer anywhere in an era of rising prices, except back in their rental or a parent’s back bdrm.
From the article in the OP:
Ashley and Brian Standing have been house hunting for about a year, and they’re a little tired of the hunt.
In the past 12 months, the young San Diego couple have put in 80 to 100 offers on homes in the $500,000 to $750,000 range in areas like Point Loma, Ocean Beach and Bay Park. They admit some of their offers have been lowballs, but they learned quickly that those wouldn’t work. At times, they’ve tried bidding $20,000 to $30,000 above asking price but still nothing.
“It’s been insane,” Brian said. “When we first got into the market, there was still more inventory. I don’t know if at the beginning we were more picky as far as putting in offers. But over the last nine months, we’ve been operating as not-as picky.”
…The losers in many of these cases are traditional house hunters like the Standings.
“We’re definitely discouraged,” said Brian, who is a firefighter. “We’re staying with my wife’s parents, so that has given us the ability to be picky and be patient … We’re in this for the long haul.”
Ahem ….. Let me see if I have this story straight.
A “firefighter” and his spouse are making offers on “starter homes” in three of SD’s finest ‘hoods (unrealistic expectations, anyone?). All of these hoods are 50-85 years old. At first they were “picky,” lol, but now they have realized they shouldn’t be `as picky’ if they’re going to be a successful buyer in their price range (but they can afford to be picky for the long haul because they’re staying in mom’s back bdrm whilst saving more $$ during a time of rising prices) :=0
The Standings have made 80-100 offers over the last year, all to no avail. For the first ~3 months of their “search,” they were “lowballing” (equity sellers??) in SD’s finest ‘hoods :=D
Uhhhh … what did they expect would happen?
You have to ask yourself here, WHO is their agent? And is there ANYBODY steering this ship??
Good L@rd, this is just unbelievable . . . is the reader supposed to “feel sorry” for this couple?
I couldn’t have illustrated the “Gen-Y picky phenomenon” any better myself :=0
Participant[quote=flyer]I agree, TS. As a native, I’ve seen that all of my life also, but it seems that it’s becoming more and more challenging as time goes on.[/quote]
I don’t think it’s more “challenging” for FTB’s to buy a home in SD County today, flyer. Except for the current “low inventory” and the high amount of “contingent” listings and all-cash sales (ALL “temporary” situations, IMO), there are currently traditional-sale properties out there in nearly every zip code to buy.
If more sophisticated and usually older “all cash” investors habitually pounce on these “older” new listings, a FTB who won’t even make an appt to see them after spotting them on a map on the internet has to ask themselves why.
Shoveler is correct. The houses we bought were 18-45 years old (at the time … now much OLDer) and many were VA/FHA repos which were sold in a VA/FHA sealed-bid system by a local property manager. ALL were absolutely “as is” and MANY were pretty rough, requiring the buying party to walk thru multiple rooms of trash, clothing and discarded household goods.
Even “traditional sales” often needed multiple major repairs … but were “livable.”
It was not uncommon for a new buyer to get keys to a fmr gov’t repo and pull in a 20′ or longer dumpster the next day or bring a flatbed in and load up several rusty old appls off the property, as well as junk and trash piled high from room to room. Kitchens often were extremely filthy and their range vents clogged with grease, even if the appliances were fairly new. Bathrooms were filthy and clogged as well.
Why did boomers want these properties? One reason. Sweat equity to the tune of $7-$10K per year of ownership (depending on location), just by hauling out, cleaning up, shoring up or planting new landscaping, painting and installing new window and floor coverings and whatever other minor repairs were needed.
That’s it. It was work one could do after work and on the weekends, while living in 1-2 rooms or on an air mattress.
The current generation of family-raising buyers (Gen Y and younger Gen X) is better-educated and so makes more money during work hours than boomers did. Due to much lower interest rates than boomers had to contend with, many of these buyers seem to be able to afford something more than a “starter home.” In addition (and MOST IMPORTANTLY), they have thousands of properties from within CFD’s to choose from, which are newer and often have wireless internet in every room, double-paned windows and lie within a HOA. Virtually none of these younger buyers seem to care about sweat equity. They just want what they buy to be ready to move right into at closing and to “flow” and fit their furniture in.
Most want their first property to be “perfect” and so are attracted to properties which have less wear and tear (newer) which are not in the most convenient locations. Since location is the best indicator of value in CA coastal counties and always has been, these young buyers will very likely not be able to garner any “sweat equity” from buying properties in new(er) subdivisions in which they only put in a bit of “cosmetic work” or no work at all (because it didn’t need any).
Entire blocks of these *newer* properties are filled with “worker bees,” many with few assets and nearly all whose total household income is tied to their job stability. In these newer subdivisions, is rare to find a paid-off home or a young family who purchased with all cash. When RE values go down (as it does/did in a normal RE cycle), nearly EVERY owner for blocks around who recently purchased at about the same time finds themselves “underwater,” thus this is the beginning of “distress” for the entire subdivision, which severely erodes all owners’ values.
Boomers didn’t have to deal with any of this. There were always plenty of paid-off homes and homes with extremely-low mortgage balances interspersed with those homes of young families. Boomers didn’t “flock” to a handful of zip codes, shunning the rest. They bought close to work and other family members, wherever that was.
The vast majority of FTB’s today don’t seem to care whether they will ever be able to sell for a profit. This doesn’t seem to be important to them, even if they want to stay in their properties ~15 years, because it never occurs to them that they could be forced to sell at any time, due to life changes, job loss and/or high medical bills not covered by insurance, for example.
As a potential buyer, knowing what a property would resell for on a bright sunny day after being cleaned up and rehabbed a little was always at the top of my mind while “touring” a listing with my clipboard (before even making an offer). Yes, even with an infant or a baby/toddler in a stroller in tow. And I know I wasn’t and am not alone in my thinking.
In a nutshell, there are vast differences in the values of FTB’s and 2nd TB’s between boomers and Gen Y.
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