[bearishgurl]

[quote=no_such_reality][quote=bearishgurl]
nsr, re: RIV Co, it is a classic case of the “chicken and the egg syndrome.” All that influx of hundreds of thousands of people would never have moved in there were it not for the abundance of cheap tract housing. In 1990, the bases were still very much alive but it didn’t have too much more “redeeming qualities” except tourism in select spots (Palm Sprs, La Quinta) .[/quote]

Well, I came in the 90s.

Nothing about CA housing was cheap comparatively, even at the bottom of the cycle in the 90s.

The CFDs didn’t cause the population boom. The California mystique did. It takes a few years for the reality versus mystique gap to become annoying.

Then those people flitter back when they realize the California they thought and the California that is, are two very different places. Meanwhile, Cali is importing poverty in droves.[/quote]

nsr, this “CA mystique” you talk about has been going on since the dawn of time. However, to non-residents, it only applies to “SF, Hollywood or SoCal beaches.”

Those three things are mostly what comes to mind when non-residents think of CA.

None of them are located within CFD’s.

The formation of the (now heavily-distressed) CFD’s (which were located at least 30 mi away from work centers) had the effect of redistributing poverty in CA from urban to exurban. In addition, it caused many enlisted military families (some non-residents) to decide to buy homes (to their detriment) when they could have instead availed themselves of military housing or taken the gov’t’s rental allowances on their paychecks. It also caused many longtime urban and suburban renters to buy houses who had no business becoming homeowners.

The development inside these distant CFD’s didn’t cause the longtime CA rural resident or non-resident to suddenly decide to move into them.

I have no doubt that many thousands who lost their homes in the IE DID “flitter back” to rent in their old ‘hoods in LA, Orange and SD Counties as the “commuting grind” had taken its toll on them by then.

Had the CFD’s never been formed, there would have been less rental vacancy and less on the market at any given time in CA’s populous counties (since their open space was preserved by their PTB).

Yes, SOME non-resident families would not have accepted jobs in CA because they couldn’t buy a *new* house. But that doesn’t mean CA “lost” a “taxpaying” resident as there are PLENTY of well-qualified locals EVERYWHERE in CA to take these jobs. If the CFD Act did not exist, SoCal counties would have been more like the Silicon Valley peninsula counties of SM Co and the northern part of SC Co, where there has been no room for subdivisions in the last 3+ decades, excepting Foster City (dredged out of the bay). Thus, the prices would have ALWAYS been higher for existing properties. And CA cities would not have had to file for BK because they wouldn’t have hired hundreds of extra employees in the first place!

Any boom/bust cycles would have been caused purely by greater US economic factors and would have been very short-lived, IMO.

Cali doesn’t need to “import poverty” and is not doing so. It already has enough homegrown (legal US-resident) poverty. Today’s “poverty” in the US and Cali is heavily disguised in Section 8 vouchers, free school lunches, Medi-Cal and CMS, Healthy Families, WIC, EBT cards, “lifeline” cell-phone plans, Head Start, DASH, 6 to 6 programs, private school discounts, etc, etc.

“Illegal” US residents are ineligible for these services.

Unlike in past generations, it is no longer very easy to determine who the “poor” actually are when out in public.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=no_such_reality]http://www.usc.edu/schools/price/research/popdynamics/pdf/2011_Myers-etal_California-Roller-Coaster.pdf

Figure 4 agrees with you. Does that count all people or just legal residents?[/quote]

I printed out this interesting USC study and will look it over tonight.

Figure 4 also indicates the “poverty rate” of LA County dropped after about 2003. Where did many of LA’s longtime “poor” go?

They moved just 30-50 miles to RIV and SB Counties where they were “lured” by “cheap” new construction, which they “miraculously qualified” to buy with sub-prime mortgages.

That’s my premise. Big Development successfully “lured” SoCal’s “poor” and “lifetime renters” into the IE with billboards and TV/Radio advertising.

All this “LA County exodus” really did was “redistribute” some of the poverty in CA. It didn’t cause “poor people” to move in from elsewhere.

Not only do more affluent cities in CA disallow billboards, their residents had no need to move to RIV or SB County. Most already had a suitable home in a much better location.

[bearishgurl]

paramount posted a LA Times article on the “flu strikes out …” thread last night.

http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-southland-housing-20130213,0,5286697.story?track=rss

In it, there is an interactive map of CA, showing the percentage of paid-off homes in each county.

http://graphics.latimes.com/calmap-california-homeowners-free-and-clear/

Looking at all the “green” counties, it is CLEAR where the “boomers” and older have chosen to retire: the wine country areas of Ukiah to Mendocino (Anderson Valley), Ft. Bragg, Eureka, Crescent City, Mt Shasta, Yreka, Yosemite and Mammoth Lakes).

I may very well be right behind them 🙂

This could also be a function of “old-timers” in those counties who never had anything to prove. Thus, they didn’t repeatedly remortgage their homes over the years to buy vehicles, bling and vacations, etc, as homeowners in the more populous CA counties did.

Note that one of the counties with the lowest percentage of paid-off homes is SB. This obviously includes the “resort” areas of Lake Arrowhead and Big Bear Lake, which are both small in size in terms of permanent population (in relation to other SB Co cities). These two towns also likely represent mostly vacation-homeowners (whose primary home is somewhere else) and retiree-homeowners. And, of course, as we know, the City of SB had to file for BK protection, mostly due to the “boom and bust” nature of all the excess subdivisions they approved, causing them to hire hundreds of employees that they couldn’t continue to pay. And it appears that all the overbuilding that went on in the high desert since the early nineties (Adelanto, Victorville, Hesperia and Apple Valley) will be mortgaged for a VERY long time yet :=0

Thanks for sharing this “very-telling” article and chart, paramount!

[bearishgurl]

[quote=SD Realtor]Nope u just need to know where to look and yes in 2009 there was instant information.[/quote]

That’s good to know if I ever am really in a position to need this info, SDR. But the human trustee reps helped us/me when we needed info … several times.

[bearishgurl]

Back to flu’s lamenting that he is being priced out of “upgrading.”

flu, since you already live in CV and thus have access to the schools, what is it that you are seeking to “upgrade?” Don’t all the properties in CV feed into the same HS? I mean, I don’t know … but has your family-size grown to where your house is too small?

I guess I’m just wondering why you would bother trying to “upgrade” in an area where ALL the houses are pretty nice. It’s not like you have neighbors who park their vehicles on the front lawn.

Short of going into a $1.5M+ subdivision, how much better of a property are you really going to get by “upgrading?”

I could understand your wanting to move to the beach but you just want to stay put. So what is wrong with your current home (which you’ve refied more times than I can count)?

[bearishgurl]

[quote=SD Realtor]BTW the trustees have them newfangled websites to update the statuses.[/quote]

I understand this is the case now. But don’t they cost $$ to belong to them??

[bearishgurl]

[quote=SD Realtor]If it can be done then do it? Which decade did you do that in 80’s or 90’s?

Be honest…[/quote]

2007-2009, usually with my “clients” (the trustor(s)) sitting next to me, but sometimes not … after the trustee understood who I was.

In a couple of cases, my “clients” had an active application for mod or deed-in-lieu in with the right hand … while foreclosure was simultaneously being pursued by the left hand :=0

You know it is/was, right, SDR??

[bearishgurl]

[quote=SD Realtor]We left trustee sales a few years back after noticing the influx of idiots and moved to hard money lending.[/quote]

Good for you, SDR! I’ve got several books I’ve had for years on that subject but never had the capital OR the stomach for it.

I HAVE, however, acted as an “information gatherer” back in the day (mid-’80’s) for a C/D lender in Mission Valley who paid me a $250 to $450 “referral fee” for each viable property for him or his “clients” to bid on on the steps.

Back at that time, a knowledgeable, street-wise person who was intimately familiar with said ‘hoods who wasn’t close to the action (dtn courthouse/recorders office) and wasn’t fast with microfiche and cloth binders couldn’t do this job properly and make any money.

There wasn’t any “instant information” … anywhere :=0

It was a nice little lunchtime gig for me for awhile 🙂

[bearishgurl]

btw, I’ve personally talked to plenty of trustees’ representatives in the past (yes, humans …. telephonically) and was usually able to get a new postponement date and/or a new opening bid amount BEFORE the day of sale.

Just so you know, it CAN be done.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=SD Realtor]I am not being sarcastic and am above name calling. By the nature of all your posts you seem to be pretty expert in all of your endeavors and quite knowledgeable of San Diego. Even Ocean Beach!

I am saying you should go for it.

I see plenty of laughable advice on this board all the time.

Yes try calling the trustee and see what that gets you.

Give it a shot.[/quote]

I was being facetious, SDR. Why don’t you lighten up a bit? It sounds like the “institutional buyers” have gotten one over on you and your “team” of late … lol

[bearishgurl]

[quote=spdrun]And the pitfalls of bidding on one?[/quote]

A good start, spdrun, is to do your “homework.” Do not pass Go or collect your $200 until you have.

Hint: you can’t do it from NY, NY 🙂

Then, find a VERY competent title officer in CA, open up an acct with their company and chain them to your ankle for the duration, touching base with him/her at least twice a week, the day before the sale and the day of the sale. Rinse and repeat every time the sale is postponed.

Get the trustee’s phone number and kick them down some coin (or other mutually agreed-upon incentive) to call you when there has been a change in sale date and/or opening bid amount. In any case, touch base with them also once weekly, three days before sale and the day before the sale.

If ever successful in purchasing a trustee’s deed, you may also need a UD law firm at your disposal, as well as at least one flatbed truck and a strong work crew :=0

There is much, much more to this endeavor, but I would have to get published so I could be properly compensated for discussing it. The “nuts and bolts” of non-judicial foreclosure is not a subject that is taught in CA’s colleges :=0

[bearishgurl]

[quote=no_such_reality][quote=bearishgurl]
This is all due to rampant CFD formation, approved by its short-sighted, greedy and incompetent leaders mostly in the last decade. RIV Co has turned from an agriculture and military-based county (self-sustaining) into a megalopolis bedroom community with few jobs which pay enough for rent/mortgage.
[/quote]

No, BG,it is a 30%+ legal population growth and probably a 50% pop growth when counting illegal.

That’s since 1990.[/quote]

nsr, re: RIV Co, it is a classic case of the “chicken and the egg syndrome.” All that influx of hundreds of thousands of people would never have moved in there were it not for the abundance of cheap tract housing. In 1990, the bases were still very much alive but it didn’t have too much more “redeeming qualities” except tourism in select spots (Palm Sprs, La Quinta) and the same is true today. That “new population influx” didn’t move to Palm Sprs or La Quinta or more established areas such as Redlands and Riverside. They moved to SE RIV county where all the new construction was. Had these CFD’s never been formed, this population would have just stayed their working-class established communities in SD County or Corona, Downey, Hawaiian Gardens, Anaheim or Vernon, for example.

RIV Co’s original “new construction buyers” in the early-mid nineties displaced existing CA homes/rental units, either by selling them, renting them out or leaving their landlords to find new tenants. Very, very few of them moved in from out of state.

Sorry, but SE RIV County is not exactly what residents of other states (who can afford to move their families to CA) dream about. IOW, they don’t sit on the porch swing of their 3000+ ft spread in TX and say, “Hey, let’s pack up and move to Moreno Valley (or Menifee), CA! I heard it’s a “happening place” and they have thousands of brand new homes eight feet apart and this special tax called “Mello Roos” which gives them new roads connecting them from the middle of nowhere to civilization. And it’s only 75 mi or ~3 hours from the `beach!’ Let’s head on out there and take a look …. we’ll stop at the Grand Cyn on the way back!”

It just didn’t happen that way. The Riv Co influx was an organic displacement of families in phases over many years from neighboring, higher-priced counties. These families realized (thru radio and billboards targeted specifically to these communities) that new construction could be had at an “affordable” price which either did not exist in their built-out, established communities or if it did, it was prohibitively expensive.

And, as we all know, we get exactly what we pay for in this life. After moving from their “hometowns” to SE RIV Co, their mtg/rent bill went down $500 mo and their gasoline bill went up $500 (not taking into acct tires/auto repairs or their time spent commuting). I’m sure after a year of living in the IE, their old 1500 sf digs in Montebello was starting to look good to many of them :=0

Those “illegals” you speak of were “put up” in trailers and manufactured homes on the properties of their employers OR living with legal-resident relatives locally with no leases or utility bills in their names …. yes in 1990 AND today. They can’t get mortgages and they can’t very easily rent in their own names. So, CA doesn’t need to “project” enough housing for its “illegal population.” They either find a way to survive here thru “sponsors” or go home.

The vast majority of foreign RE buyers in CA using all cash have a legal right to be in this country (even if “temporary”).

[bearishgurl]

Why don’t y’all “prospective investors” go take a look at the southwest corner of Santee? It has pretty decent schools and is a little more expensive than Chula V for the same type house (but perhaps a bit newer). I feel the reason is because of its closer proximity to jobs in the Golden Triangle and I-15 corridor. The rents there may very well reflect the higher purchase prices. I don’t know.

I’m sure it doesn’t have a better “quality of life” than (the much cooler) ChulaV but is probably better located for worker-bees.

There were many current short listings there a couple of days ago but here’s some “traditional sale” listings:

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-130005604-9560_W_Hartland_Cir_Santee_CA_92071

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-130005222-9105_Gorge_Ave_Santee_CA_92071

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-130000699-7971_Rancho_Fanita_Dr_Santee_CA_92071

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-130001303-8537_Big_Rock_Rd_Santee_CA_92071

ChulaV tenants, and, to a little lesser degree, Santee tenants are likely to be “locals.” This means they graduated from HS in that particular attendance area or an adjacent one. It doesn’t matter if they’re 25, 45 or 65 years old.

That’s how it is in many parts of SD County :).

[bearishgurl]

Very well-built house asking $210-$240K (short)

Will rent for at least $1450. LL should accept dogs (no NOT pit bulls!)

Walk to Hilltop Drive Elem, Hilltop Middle and Senior. Coveted neighborhood.

Nice lot with big backyard. Huge screen porch (not sure if permitted and no one cares at this late date).

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-120056824-607_Claire_Ave_Chula_Vista_CA_91910

Nice 1500 sf home asking $240K (short). Will definitely rent for $1650. Another good ‘hood ChulaV Middle and Senior and choice of 3 elems. Pic is small and so may already be sold to friend/relative of agent.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-120009496-686_Ash_Ave_Chula_Vista_CA_91910

Another small pic of SS asking $270-290 so likely already sold but will rent for $1750 (1800 sf). Big lot. LL should allow dogs. Collective dog-walking is a very popular sport around there. Great schools of Rosebank Elem, Hilltop Middle and Senior.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-120048017-322_1st_Ave_Chula_Vista_CA_91910

Another short of almost 2000 sf on HUGE lot. Asking $299,900. Awesome street in Rosebank and Hilltop Middle/Sr attendance area! Will rent for $2000 and LL should allow dogs.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-120048017-322_1st_Ave_Chula_Vista_CA_91910

Of course, these are short and thus are all “opening bids” but I could go onto several more zip codes. There are more like these in Lemon Grove and Spring Valley, but I just think the tenant-quality is a bit lower in SV.

The last one would definitely make a good flipper and maybe more (would have to see them first).

Happy shopping, prospective investors! Looks like what is out there is “hurry-and-wait” inventory so best to take a cue from spdrun and just place multiple offers and see if any bite!

[bearishgurl]

[quote=flu] . . . When you start seeing Pardee $600k-$700k homes in MM selling well, which are basically the same exact homes that sold in Carmel Valley as “Carriage Run” for $800k, to me that tells me something is going on in the hood…

FWIW: I recall when these homes were first announced by pardee, almost all of us were skeptical..A lot of us were like no frickin way…Is Pardee insane???….
I was one of them….

I think there was only one person who actually said they would sell well…And called it as it happened.

You can dig it up who it was….It wasn’t AN either (initially)…

http://piggington.com/new_tract_in_mira_mesa
[/quote]

Correct me if I’m wrong, flu, but didn’t we determine that this Pardee subdivision was in Sorrento Mesa (92121?) and not Mira Mesa. It is adjacent, but not IN MM?

[Author]

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