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beanmaestro
ParticipantTwo hunches and an observation here:
1. I do think moral hazard will prevent many folks with liar loans from seeing a bailout. They’re the homedebtors who have the least defensible position when they go into default, and the (initial, at least) bailout plans will require that they prove their stated income was legit. The Option ARM, subprime, and prime defaulters will get sympathy, but I’m guessing the liars get thrown under a bus. Given the number of those folks in SoCal, this may limit the effect on the market.
2. With prices dropping at 3% a month, and already at cash-flow prices in some areas, prices may drop most of the way before a more-aggressive foreclosure act takes effect. Especially with the global market crises getting increased attention, I suspect any morally egregious foreclosure relief will wait till next year, but which time we’re down another 10%.
But we all did see major loan forgiveness coming, though, right? Last year, when it was obvious that 25% of California was going to end up upside-down, you knew that either through laws or loss-mitigation, someone would do something to limit foreclosures… it’s just not in the loan holder’s interest to foreclose on a quarter of the state. To assume that wouldn’t happen is to be as shortsighted as the banks that made the loans.
ParticipantA lot of the renting specifics are too darn landlord-specific. He stays out of our hair, only fixes the necessities, and could care less if we paint. Our rent (half-duplex, 900 sqft + decent yard) has only gone from $1580 to $1650 in six years. We’ll cheerfully stay until we know the housing market is bottomed.
However, we have plenty of friends who are seeing regular rent increases (although these have been lower since the housing peak), annoying landlords who pretend to be the handyman, etc. Were we in one of those, I’m sure money wouldn’t be the only factor.
Also, second the recommendation of the NYTimes calculator above.
ParticipantA lot of the renting specifics are too darn landlord-specific. He stays out of our hair, only fixes the necessities, and could care less if we paint. Our rent (half-duplex, 900 sqft + decent yard) has only gone from $1580 to $1650 in six years. We’ll cheerfully stay until we know the housing market is bottomed.
However, we have plenty of friends who are seeing regular rent increases (although these have been lower since the housing peak), annoying landlords who pretend to be the handyman, etc. Were we in one of those, I’m sure money wouldn’t be the only factor.
Also, second the recommendation of the NYTimes calculator above.
ParticipantA lot of the renting specifics are too darn landlord-specific. He stays out of our hair, only fixes the necessities, and could care less if we paint. Our rent (half-duplex, 900 sqft + decent yard) has only gone from $1580 to $1650 in six years. We’ll cheerfully stay until we know the housing market is bottomed.
However, we have plenty of friends who are seeing regular rent increases (although these have been lower since the housing peak), annoying landlords who pretend to be the handyman, etc. Were we in one of those, I’m sure money wouldn’t be the only factor.
Also, second the recommendation of the NYTimes calculator above.
ParticipantA lot of the renting specifics are too darn landlord-specific. He stays out of our hair, only fixes the necessities, and could care less if we paint. Our rent (half-duplex, 900 sqft + decent yard) has only gone from $1580 to $1650 in six years. We’ll cheerfully stay until we know the housing market is bottomed.
However, we have plenty of friends who are seeing regular rent increases (although these have been lower since the housing peak), annoying landlords who pretend to be the handyman, etc. Were we in one of those, I’m sure money wouldn’t be the only factor.
Also, second the recommendation of the NYTimes calculator above.
ParticipantA lot of the renting specifics are too darn landlord-specific. He stays out of our hair, only fixes the necessities, and could care less if we paint. Our rent (half-duplex, 900 sqft + decent yard) has only gone from $1580 to $1650 in six years. We’ll cheerfully stay until we know the housing market is bottomed.
However, we have plenty of friends who are seeing regular rent increases (although these have been lower since the housing peak), annoying landlords who pretend to be the handyman, etc. Were we in one of those, I’m sure money wouldn’t be the only factor.
Also, second the recommendation of the NYTimes calculator above.
ParticipantOff the cuff, I’d say that 30% of the male engineers at my company are married to someone in a technical field, maybe a little higher among the 30-50 crowd. We actually have a lot of couples working here. A lot of the female engineers make full use of part-timing options to have kids while still pulling in decent income.
Average salary around $100k seems credible, with senior PhD types in the $120-140k range. I’m five years post-PhD and making ~100k.
ParticipantOff the cuff, I’d say that 30% of the male engineers at my company are married to someone in a technical field, maybe a little higher among the 30-50 crowd. We actually have a lot of couples working here. A lot of the female engineers make full use of part-timing options to have kids while still pulling in decent income.
Average salary around $100k seems credible, with senior PhD types in the $120-140k range. I’m five years post-PhD and making ~100k.
ParticipantOff the cuff, I’d say that 30% of the male engineers at my company are married to someone in a technical field, maybe a little higher among the 30-50 crowd. We actually have a lot of couples working here. A lot of the female engineers make full use of part-timing options to have kids while still pulling in decent income.
Average salary around $100k seems credible, with senior PhD types in the $120-140k range. I’m five years post-PhD and making ~100k.
ParticipantOff the cuff, I’d say that 30% of the male engineers at my company are married to someone in a technical field, maybe a little higher among the 30-50 crowd. We actually have a lot of couples working here. A lot of the female engineers make full use of part-timing options to have kids while still pulling in decent income.
Average salary around $100k seems credible, with senior PhD types in the $120-140k range. I’m five years post-PhD and making ~100k.
ParticipantOff the cuff, I’d say that 30% of the male engineers at my company are married to someone in a technical field, maybe a little higher among the 30-50 crowd. We actually have a lot of couples working here. A lot of the female engineers make full use of part-timing options to have kids while still pulling in decent income.
Average salary around $100k seems credible, with senior PhD types in the $120-140k range. I’m five years post-PhD and making ~100k.
ParticipantIt seems almost inevitable that the RE crash & gas prices will trigger a vicious cycle in some of the exurbs…
– Foreclosures, brown lawns, less desirable neighbors make the exurb less worth the cost and time of the nasty commute.
– Prices drop in the nearer suburbs too, making them an attractive move for commuters from the exurbs
– Exurbs lose many of their wealthier residents, causing higher-end retail stores to fold
– Loss of better retail jobs = more Walmarts and empty strip-malls
– Exurb becomes less desirable, more people move to surburbs, repeat cycle until exurb is half-empty
– When cars become more efficient, the exurb may get a new life, but it will have dropped a long way before then.So I see the suburbs doing fine as long as there are exurbs behind them. You don’t have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun the other hiker.
ParticipantIt seems almost inevitable that the RE crash & gas prices will trigger a vicious cycle in some of the exurbs…
– Foreclosures, brown lawns, less desirable neighbors make the exurb less worth the cost and time of the nasty commute.
– Prices drop in the nearer suburbs too, making them an attractive move for commuters from the exurbs
– Exurbs lose many of their wealthier residents, causing higher-end retail stores to fold
– Loss of better retail jobs = more Walmarts and empty strip-malls
– Exurb becomes less desirable, more people move to surburbs, repeat cycle until exurb is half-empty
– When cars become more efficient, the exurb may get a new life, but it will have dropped a long way before then.So I see the suburbs doing fine as long as there are exurbs behind them. You don’t have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun the other hiker.
ParticipantIt seems almost inevitable that the RE crash & gas prices will trigger a vicious cycle in some of the exurbs…
– Foreclosures, brown lawns, less desirable neighbors make the exurb less worth the cost and time of the nasty commute.
– Prices drop in the nearer suburbs too, making them an attractive move for commuters from the exurbs
– Exurbs lose many of their wealthier residents, causing higher-end retail stores to fold
– Loss of better retail jobs = more Walmarts and empty strip-malls
– Exurb becomes less desirable, more people move to surburbs, repeat cycle until exurb is half-empty
– When cars become more efficient, the exurb may get a new life, but it will have dropped a long way before then.So I see the suburbs doing fine as long as there are exurbs behind them. You don’t have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun the other hiker.
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