[barnaby33]

jpinpb, my point was not to pick on you. It was to jar your thinking a bit. I don’t think a bank holiday is likely, but it or something like it could happen and its hardly too alarming to contemplate.

As many here know I am a short/medium term deflationisto. Long term I feel inflation is the way forward, but short term its all about credit/debt deflation.

A bank holiday in the 30’s served to stem the panic, not start it. However it wouldn’t work this time because the banks themselves aren’t really the problem. The toxic levels of debt system wide are the problem. The banks don’t even own most of it anymore. They’ve sold it off to large pension funds which is where the REAL damage has yet to be done.

Closing down insolvent banks would send a message that we are serious about clearing the bad debt out of the system, but it won’t happen. Once that chain reaction begins it would, in my mind, be impossible to stop a full scale deflationary implosion of the economy.

Lets say we closed down Citi and unwound all its toxic debts. Not just the on balance sheet stuff but the off balance sheet stuff. Who knows what the bond holders would get, but it would probably be under 50 cents on the dollar. Ok who are Citi’s bond holders? Well there is that one rich Arab prince, but I’m ok with him getting screwed over. Then there are all those pension funds who also own it. Blamo smoking hole in THEIR balance sheets. Companies which are already struggling with lower profits are going to have to contribute more to pension funds to make up the difference. Some will go under exacerbating the unemployment situation, most will have their stock price trounced.

If there is one thing senor Obama doesn’t want its another collapse in the stock market. Thats just bad PR.

Josh

[barnaby33]

jpinpb, my point was not to pick on you. It was to jar your thinking a bit. I don’t think a bank holiday is likely, but it or something like it could happen and its hardly too alarming to contemplate.

As many here know I am a short/medium term deflationisto. Long term I feel inflation is the way forward, but short term its all about credit/debt deflation.

A bank holiday in the 30’s served to stem the panic, not start it. However it wouldn’t work this time because the banks themselves aren’t really the problem. The toxic levels of debt system wide are the problem. The banks don’t even own most of it anymore. They’ve sold it off to large pension funds which is where the REAL damage has yet to be done.

Closing down insolvent banks would send a message that we are serious about clearing the bad debt out of the system, but it won’t happen. Once that chain reaction begins it would, in my mind, be impossible to stop a full scale deflationary implosion of the economy.

Lets say we closed down Citi and unwound all its toxic debts. Not just the on balance sheet stuff but the off balance sheet stuff. Who knows what the bond holders would get, but it would probably be under 50 cents on the dollar. Ok who are Citi’s bond holders? Well there is that one rich Arab prince, but I’m ok with him getting screwed over. Then there are all those pension funds who also own it. Blamo smoking hole in THEIR balance sheets. Companies which are already struggling with lower profits are going to have to contribute more to pension funds to make up the difference. Some will go under exacerbating the unemployment situation, most will have their stock price trounced.

If there is one thing senor Obama doesn’t want its another collapse in the stock market. Thats just bad PR.

Josh

[barnaby33]

jpinpb, my point was not to pick on you. It was to jar your thinking a bit. I don’t think a bank holiday is likely, but it or something like it could happen and its hardly too alarming to contemplate.

As many here know I am a short/medium term deflationisto. Long term I feel inflation is the way forward, but short term its all about credit/debt deflation.

A bank holiday in the 30’s served to stem the panic, not start it. However it wouldn’t work this time because the banks themselves aren’t really the problem. The toxic levels of debt system wide are the problem. The banks don’t even own most of it anymore. They’ve sold it off to large pension funds which is where the REAL damage has yet to be done.

Closing down insolvent banks would send a message that we are serious about clearing the bad debt out of the system, but it won’t happen. Once that chain reaction begins it would, in my mind, be impossible to stop a full scale deflationary implosion of the economy.

Lets say we closed down Citi and unwound all its toxic debts. Not just the on balance sheet stuff but the off balance sheet stuff. Who knows what the bond holders would get, but it would probably be under 50 cents on the dollar. Ok who are Citi’s bond holders? Well there is that one rich Arab prince, but I’m ok with him getting screwed over. Then there are all those pension funds who also own it. Blamo smoking hole in THEIR balance sheets. Companies which are already struggling with lower profits are going to have to contribute more to pension funds to make up the difference. Some will go under exacerbating the unemployment situation, most will have their stock price trounced.

If there is one thing senor Obama doesn’t want its another collapse in the stock market. Thats just bad PR.

Josh

[barnaby33]

This is too alarming to contemplate.

Why? While by no means the most likely outcome, in my opinion, what about this scenario is to alarming to contemplate? You mean you might have to look up from your own concerns for a bit and focus on other more concrete issues like basic necessities? A house in PB would no longer be your prime economic focus? I’d love to hear why this is so alarming.

I don’t see a bank holiday as likely, we don’t have a gold backed currency, and the world has not shifted away from US demand enough. That will take years, unless of course we actually go through with Obamacare. If that happens, then that alarming scenario, whether too alarming or not, is front and center.

Josh

[barnaby33]

This is too alarming to contemplate.

Why? While by no means the most likely outcome, in my opinion, what about this scenario is to alarming to contemplate? You mean you might have to look up from your own concerns for a bit and focus on other more concrete issues like basic necessities? A house in PB would no longer be your prime economic focus? I’d love to hear why this is so alarming.

I don’t see a bank holiday as likely, we don’t have a gold backed currency, and the world has not shifted away from US demand enough. That will take years, unless of course we actually go through with Obamacare. If that happens, then that alarming scenario, whether too alarming or not, is front and center.

Josh

[barnaby33]

This is too alarming to contemplate.

Why? While by no means the most likely outcome, in my opinion, what about this scenario is to alarming to contemplate? You mean you might have to look up from your own concerns for a bit and focus on other more concrete issues like basic necessities? A house in PB would no longer be your prime economic focus? I’d love to hear why this is so alarming.

I don’t see a bank holiday as likely, we don’t have a gold backed currency, and the world has not shifted away from US demand enough. That will take years, unless of course we actually go through with Obamacare. If that happens, then that alarming scenario, whether too alarming or not, is front and center.

Josh

[barnaby33]

This is too alarming to contemplate.

Why? While by no means the most likely outcome, in my opinion, what about this scenario is to alarming to contemplate? You mean you might have to look up from your own concerns for a bit and focus on other more concrete issues like basic necessities? A house in PB would no longer be your prime economic focus? I’d love to hear why this is so alarming.

I don’t see a bank holiday as likely, we don’t have a gold backed currency, and the world has not shifted away from US demand enough. That will take years, unless of course we actually go through with Obamacare. If that happens, then that alarming scenario, whether too alarming or not, is front and center.

Josh

[barnaby33]

This is too alarming to contemplate.

Why? While by no means the most likely outcome, in my opinion, what about this scenario is to alarming to contemplate? You mean you might have to look up from your own concerns for a bit and focus on other more concrete issues like basic necessities? A house in PB would no longer be your prime economic focus? I’d love to hear why this is so alarming.

I don’t see a bank holiday as likely, we don’t have a gold backed currency, and the world has not shifted away from US demand enough. That will take years, unless of course we actually go through with Obamacare. If that happens, then that alarming scenario, whether too alarming or not, is front and center.

Josh

[barnaby33]

The loophole might merit some spirited conversation, but the level of tax increase, hardly. When your food bill doubles in 5 years, that sort of tax increase should be an afterthought.
Josh

[barnaby33]

The loophole might merit some spirited conversation, but the level of tax increase, hardly. When your food bill doubles in 5 years, that sort of tax increase should be an afterthought.
Josh

[barnaby33]

The loophole might merit some spirited conversation, but the level of tax increase, hardly. When your food bill doubles in 5 years, that sort of tax increase should be an afterthought.
Josh

[barnaby33]

The loophole might merit some spirited conversation, but the level of tax increase, hardly. When your food bill doubles in 5 years, that sort of tax increase should be an afterthought.
Josh

[barnaby33]

The loophole might merit some spirited conversation, but the level of tax increase, hardly. When your food bill doubles in 5 years, that sort of tax increase should be an afterthought.
Josh

[barnaby33]

I grew up in VC, left in 92. To say it has changed a lot would be an understatement. First if you don’t have kids its all about the distance/lifestyle choices you are willing to make. You’ll have to do your shopping in Escondido.

Second, “Valley Center is country living.” That is what the brochure would say if there were one. Its not. It has a huge mix of people mostly on the lower end of the socio-economic spectrum, but as others have posted its a real mix.

Casinos, have absolutely ruined it as far as traffic goes, dear lard the traffic there is HORRIFIC on VC road.

Heat is relative. I remember in the summer of 84 when it hit 110 every day for four weeks straight. Most of the summers it hits 90+ regularly. If you don’t like that kind of heat, stay coastal as VC is hotter then other areas around it.

Mostly VC is about what you give to what you get. You get a 2 acre minimum, but no sewers. You get some peace and quiet, but you have to drive 20+ minutes to get to Escondido. You have to give on close contact with your neighbors, but you get 3 casinos within 15 minutes.

I’d rather live in Hillcrest!

Josh

[barnaby33]

I grew up in VC, left in 92. To say it has changed a lot would be an understatement. First if you don’t have kids its all about the distance/lifestyle choices you are willing to make. You’ll have to do your shopping in Escondido.

Second, “Valley Center is country living.” That is what the brochure would say if there were one. Its not. It has a huge mix of people mostly on the lower end of the socio-economic spectrum, but as others have posted its a real mix.

Casinos, have absolutely ruined it as far as traffic goes, dear lard the traffic there is HORRIFIC on VC road.

Heat is relative. I remember in the summer of 84 when it hit 110 every day for four weeks straight. Most of the summers it hits 90+ regularly. If you don’t like that kind of heat, stay coastal as VC is hotter then other areas around it.

Mostly VC is about what you give to what you get. You get a 2 acre minimum, but no sewers. You get some peace and quiet, but you have to drive 20+ minutes to get to Escondido. You have to give on close contact with your neighbors, but you get 3 casinos within 15 minutes.

I’d rather live in Hillcrest!

Josh

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