[barnaby33]

Yeah you could move your assets out of dollars, assuming you had any left at that point.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Downtown has two sets of forces, the progressive and regressive. On the one side, alot of money has been invested in downtown, both in the ballpark, and in all the condos being built. On the other is the low end element that has been there all along. I think what we are seeing is that downtown is balancing on a fulcrum. It doesn’t really have a draw for most yet, but it could. The question seems to be two fold. What would be the fulcrum for a large enough group to keep the condos from all reverting to low end rentals. The second part is that since we are most likely coming into recession, will those forces align to break the downtown out of the mold in which is currently locked?

As an aside I don’t see myself really living down there either. Its too cramped most places and even if things do get cheaper there, they will probably be cheaper in places I would rather live. I have too much a San Diego lifestyle. 5 dollar gas might get me there though!

Josh

[barnaby33]

That argument doesn’t ring true. Nobody joins the reserve or guard thinking they will have to goto war, they are gambling against it. Of course the govt is taking the other side of the gamble.

For the most part, people who enlist are not the top rungs of the socio-economic ladder to begin with. Expecting them to be as sharp as the top layers is a bit pedantic. People used to join the military for the pay and benefits, most people seem to stay now for the retirement.

I’m not saying that this guy losing his house is anybody elses fault, but there is a limit around what you can expect people to be able to comprehend. If as you say and I happen to agree, alot of the people in the military are not from the brightest segments of society, shouldn’t they be offered some form of protection?

As far as job guarantees, I believe that the law says a company of more than 50 employees must have a similar job at the same pay available upon his return.

Oh and before any of the pro-military crowd goes rabid, I was in the reserves for 6 years, I know what I am talking about.

Josh

[barnaby33]

I disagree bugs, remember that the toxic mortgages most people have used have gotten something like 40% more expensive. Lets just assume that the vast majority of people don’t recognize a bubble. Even if they wanted to stretch, they can do so alot less than in the past few years.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Zoning, land deals, contracts on the way up. Re-zoning, land deals, foreclosures on the way down. Why wouldn’t he be busy except for that dizzying period in between?

Josh

[barnaby33]

Sure there can. When the next article reports on his acceptance of PAID speaking engagements, thats worse.

Josh

[barnaby33]

On and rolling wave vs tsunami? I would go with pebble in a medium sized bucket. The shock waves will reverberate out from the major cities and bounce back in echoing waves. I am willing to bet on several dead cat bounces on the way down. Resort towns and smaller places with no industry are going to be whacked the hardest and those losses will in turn reverberate to the people who sank primary or speculative equity into them in big cities.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Other than Japan in the 1980’s, has there ever been an example of lots of foreigners buying American properties? Sure the really rich ones do, but thats always been a very small percentage. In order for stronger currencies to really help those foreigners, large numbers of them also have to become wealthy enough that either a first or second home becomes a reality. I just don’t see many places in the world that could generate that kind of wealth in the next few years. Stronger currencies will in effect hurt most countries as there current prosperity is mainly predicated on selling us stuff.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Congrats on your commitment! If only it were your commitment and yours alone. As you know it takes a village to raise a child, therefore it takes the commitment of a society to raise children. They are our asset, and our liability. If we don’t raise and educate them with good values they simply replicate the problems of their parents ad infinitum. A good example would be homophobia.

This forum isn’t really the sort of place that I would have this type of discussion (its very emotional as your response indicates.) However since I opened the door, I will say this. Your decision to have a child, or multiple involves me just as my parents decision involved a large chunk of society albeit indirectly. What right have YOU or anyone else to declare that you are SO important that your genes need to be spread that much. If you are THAT important then by all means spread away. Just know that you should bear the FULL cost of doing so. Since in todays society you don’t, society deserves a veto.

You have divined correctly that I do not have children. I am not against people having children in the least, I am actually for it. I just feel that it is an even larger financial decision than buying a house and yet most people give it even less thought.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Funny thing about people looking for miracles, they seldom get them. Whenever someone inserts, “by the grace of god,” you should replace it with, “Suzanne researched this.” Either that or the person saying it is about to royally screw someone else. This applies to life in general not just RE.

This thread is interesting only because it has been so widely publicized by the RE bear community. Its been hacked to death on housingbubbleblog.com There is alot more of this to come and when I read his reasoning for why he became an investor I took a step back.

My first question is, why does he have four kids? With a planet full of people that in itself is a bigger mistake than losing some money in the RE market. Second is, if you are going to be an investor you need to learn about due diligence, otherwise its gambling.

Ultimately I feel some sorrow for the guy, but not enough to hope he gets out from under it. Unless alot more people like him feel alot of RE denominated pain, I ain’t ever going to be able to afford a home.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Addiction is just such an ugly word, I prefer enthusiast! I’m however pretty safe in predicting my girlfriend would say I’m an addict.

I like the level of intellectual engagement for the most part as well.

Though only technical bugaboo is that once the new posts go beyond the first page, clicking on the new post icon on the forms list page no longer takes you to the newest post you haven’t read.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Another way of looking at it though is that those jobs that are anchored here determine the floor of pricing. Since these jobs are pretty well garunteed to stay here you can get an idea of what medium to upper level white collar folks will set the baseline for home purchases in a depressed market.

Josh

[barnaby33]

I didn’t imply, I explicitly stated it. The quality of employees is better here, not different better. San Diego has one of the highest percentages of college educated people in the nation. Despite what people say about SoCal in general and San Diego in particular companies come here because in lots of other places they can’t find the kind of employees they need. If all you need is people on a production line, you can get those anywhere. When it comes to thinkers though, they want to live in nice places. San Diego is one of the nicest.

You can point to all sorts of negatives and to your credit you have. I for one am not suprised that an engineer in WI makes what he would here, that his home is cheaper his wife can stay at home. You can do those here too, you just have to make more. Its all whats important to you.

As to long commutes, that is something that most people volunteer for when the move here. Rather than live in a smaller house and consume less of the Earths resources; they want to live like they did in the mid-west. Isn’t that why people live in the mid-west? (Big cars, big pants sizes, lots of room between you and your neighbors.)

Oh and I know my neighbors. I don’t love all of them, but I know them, but thats just me.

Josh

[barnaby33]

You do have a choice, you can leave. Lots of people are doing it, apparently its all the rage. I have never heard software developer salaries are higher in most places (excluding SF/NYC/Boston) than here. The only thing thats really cheaper is housing and that is correcting itself as we speak.

Of course its going to take a while and I can totally understand people not wanting to move here till it does. If you have an outdoors kind of life there is nowhere that combines the quality of life of San Diego with the ability to make a living. In high tech, not even close.

So as far as companies moving out of SoCal, yes they do all the time and will continue to do so. Eventually, they will realize the error of their ways and move back to find the quality of employees that just don’t exist in places like Dallas in any quantity.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Plus come on people its Escondido. What did you expect, “its different here?” Its pretty much an unrelieved vile hole. Lots of jobs in retail and not alot else. No good schools no industries and a hellish commute down the 15 to work. Lets not forget its huge population of people of questionable immigration status!

Each time we get a posting about some dramatic reduction I will see a comment about wow its happening faster than we expected and in such and such a location. I still get a generalized feeling that SEH in the north and Eastlake in the South will be the first places to major systemic reductions. Most of those developments sold during the height of the frenzy.

Josh

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