[barnaby33]

Thankfully educationally there are lots of good choices, even some online options. I went to CSUSM. I got a good education at rock buttom prices. Its not quite as cheap as when I went there, but a good deal I feel. I also remember that all my CS classes were evening and late afternoon, which really helped the working people I went to school with.

UCSD extension can be a good place to start, if you just need to get some credentials to start out. As far as schools, UCSD is the 800lb gorilla in SD, but its expensive and you would have to go full time. Its classes tend not to be scheduled for working adults either.

I am also a huge believer in community colleges. Palomar and Mira Costa both have good classes and help you get back into that college feeling without the full cost.

Josh

[barnaby33]

I only really know IT. It isn’t terribly stable but if you are good at budgeting it can be a good career for a variety of reasons. First it can be intellectually engaging, though thats not guaranteed. Its also not hard on your body. You can work in it in most cities in America, and even globally should you choose. You can even choose an hybrid form of it. You could go towards the creative side of the IT world (web design as opposed to sys admin or programmer like me.) The downside is that it is very cyclical and you will get laid off. It does pay well though.

On a correlated note, my nephew works as a photo assistant and web/system admin for a porn company. He gets to do all the things you say you like, and he has lots of variety. If you can get over the stigma of that industry or find a niche you are ok with, then it is definitely worth looking into.

My biggest caveat is that in order to smooth out the inherent instability in IT, you would need to finish your degree from someplace reputable in something engineering related. That piece of paper helps alot.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Please read my post again, I am not saying anything other then there was heavy traffic at these specific locations. I am not saying this is a bounce, nor am I saying go buy now or don’t go buy now.

SD R, I for one believe you. I have been suspiciously silent because I haven’t had much to say. Hey I was even planning to have a party when inventory hit 25k. I guess I’ll just have to keep the Mexican finger traps and party hats packed up a little longer, drat.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Already gone 23:36 on thursday.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Careful Perry, those mid-afternoon snacks are very fattening!

Josh

[barnaby33]

You want to talk about tired of renting? Send me your email and I’ll send you pics of my one bedroom shack in Northpark. Of course I would rather own. I am however not limited by pets, wives, children or any other encumberance.

Govt bailouts are a way of life in America, just not for individuals.

As to luck of the draw, I have had mostly good luck, but then again, I have low expectations for renting, which is why I live in Northpark to begin with.

do see alot of buyers out there who are buying with a wary eye and a sound strategy. How so? If rent to own equations are still so out of whack, with affordability at all time lows, what strategy could these people be using? I realize that some on this board use emotional metrics instead of the financial ones I prefer, but the problem with those is that they are not objective. You can’t really discuss what pride of ownership is worth, at least not at an individual level. If you are going to talk strategy, then be objective about it. If there are people buying on a strategy, what is it?

Josh

[barnaby33]

Perry Upon that we agree. Though its getting harder and harder much more quickly than last year. There are far fewer people to reel in, and the costs to do so are spiraling. Hence so many sub prime mortgage shops are going out of business.

What often seems to get lost in our debates is why historical norms are so important. I expect a reversion to the mean of prices, and flight to credit quality not because thats the way things were in the past, but because ultimately people don’t change. Lenders want to be paid even MBS lenders (and thats what they are.) Alot of the money that has been loaned out won’t be repaid, can’t be repaid under the terms it was loaned. Those lenders who are on the hook most likely will go under or be bailed out by our govt. Those that don’t will be forced, by their desire to be paid back, to tighten standards. Maybe we don’t go back to 30 year fixed mortgages altogether, but somehow it will all even out, even in the near term.

SDR here is where hope comes in. I hope you are wrong about pendings and closings. At this point if you are buying a house you are placing yourself in a very precarious spot. Our economy is contracting, especially in jobs that pay enough to support home ownership. Unless a person is wealthly enough to not care, getting anywhere near a solidly depreciating asset with leverage is a recipe for disaster. I was here last time, I saw it first hand. This time is going to be worse, much worse.

Josh

[barnaby33]

I totally disagree Perry, lenders have and are tightening their requirements. Sure they are loser than say 10 years ago, but the loan products available even last year are not available to the same people at the same low rates. If you can get a no doc neg-am loan same as before but the rate is 9% instead of 5% then its not really available is it.

Josh

[barnaby33]

No need to be crass LBC. I think it is very cool that two people who have bought recently have shared with the board. Just because I don’t believe what they have done was the right call doesn’t mean I would rub their noses in it.

Now to the matter at hand, the word “hope.” Its a very loaded word. Usually its associated with something that has no basis in rigorous analysis. There is very little in my outlook that is based on hope, almost none. I take comfort in the fact that what I am waiting for in an reversion to the mean, nothing more nothing less.

Easy credit may be here to stay, but its going to get expensive going forward because and this is a shocker, lenders want to be paid back.

Sales and pendings may be up these next few months, the short term I have no way of predicting.

What I hope comes out of this thread though is a discussion about the massive disparity between what is happening in the financial markets and what two realtors on this very board are reporting. Ok its happening, now lets figure out why.

Comments, suggestions, concerns?

Josh

[barnaby33]

You mean push the crime somewhere else possibly? Gentrification doesn’t get rid of the riff raff, just makes it move. Riff raff is resiliant, it doesn’t go away easily.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Are you sure you two aren’t married?

Josh

[barnaby33]

Having lived in Clairemont let me say, its still not a good deal, regardless of the amount of the price drop. Clairemont tracks the median pretty well and so while its a significant sticker price re-alignment its still to expensive for that area.

Second selling a fixer in this market is going to be tough.

Josh

[barnaby33]

It seems to me that as long as you know the ratio of NOD to actual default NOD is a more sensitive measurement. Sure most NOD don’t go through actual foreclosure, but as long as the ratio is constant, its just as good. Furthermore it gives you an idea just how many people are running right up to the edge.

Josh

[barnaby33]

150k for a 2/2 at 02 prices? You would pick up ten of them? Your flaw is that you assume you’ll have a job, that interest rates will be about the same and that someone would loan you the money to buy those residences. None of which is a safe assumption seeing as how we are going through a credit contraction.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Once along time ago, I paid for this dumb real estate website called piggington. The proprietor got all persnickety and threw the money back at me. He was mumbling something at the time, but I never quite figured out what he was saying.

Oh and I subscribed to the CS Monitor and the Economist.

Josh

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