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balasr
ParticipantUsual PS stuff. When I called out on this kind of churlish behavior a while back, someone said this is the “Northern European” way of behaving and so it’s ok. While I strongly doubt a whole region can be this “jerky”, I hope I never have to live there if it’s indeed a character trait of people in those parts.
I didn’t buy real-estate, but this site helped me decide not to buy in 2005-2006. Great work Rich and thanks for sharing with us.
ParticipantLostkitty, layoffs happen almost always before Christmas, especially late Nov-early Dec. I have seen this happen many times over the 10 years I have been working (even during the go-go days of the late 90s). I work in the tech area (not IT). It’s all about balancing the books for the next quarter, and being able to take a “charge”. Depressing, but true.
ParticipantPS, I didn’t suggest that you might think it’s different this time. I just said how about turning your psychoanalytic apparatus on yourself and see if you fear that it might be different this time. You are quite keen on attributing motives to people who disagree with you, but how about yourself, that was the question. Obviously sdcellar got it.
jg, appreciate your point. But if you think being direct is calling people names (liar, desperate, unethical etc.), I can only say “lets just agree to disagree” and leave it at that.
ParticipantThanks sdcellar. PS, I have been reading Piggington longer than you have (or at leastlonger than you have been posting on it). I have been using the internet from 1992, when the bulk of the what you could do was read email and newsgroups. So I do know that reading the basic documents is proper netiquette befre piping in with comments. BTW, anyone remember when Mosaic seemed like a breath of fresh air?
You are under the impression that everyone who sees the same set of data should come to the same conclusions. In your case you start ascribing various motives – desperation, being one – to people who do not agree with you conclusions.
Let me give a stock market analogy. Two professors Shiller of Yale and Siegel of Wharton disagree massively on the stock market, but are friends and vacation together. Neither wonders about ulterior motives. Do you know that Shiller who is probably the guru of all kinds of bubbles, still officially only says that you can’t predict how much or when housing will go down? Whereas I see you with exact numbers and timeframes. I am not saying you are incorrect, but I am just pointing out that it’s not easy to justify these things quantitatively.
BTW to whoever wrote that, it’s total BS that Northern Europeans are not “polite”. I had many friends from Germany in grad school and they were unfailingly polite.
The problem I see with the new paradigm model is that it is always in unstable equilibrium. A small push can lead to prices tumbling. And with many factors – macro-economic, political, divorce, etc., – it is highly improbable that people will stay put in their houses till prices pick up. The new paradigm is basically what Jim is advocating. While it is possible, it seems improbable due to the things I mentioned before. 10% yearly appreciation is also NOT normal for hosuing.
Another analogy would be the art market. It is highly illiquid and people who buy Monets for 50 million should be able to hold on to it till prices go back up. But that’s not what happens, does it? Quite often people sell art-work at losses, due to other factors forcing them to sell it.
Why can’t you just say things like that instead of name calling? Just wondering.
ParticipantA piece of unsolicited advice for PS. Stop seeing ulterior motives behind what people say and start taking them their word for it. It leads to much better dialogs. Also instead of psychoanalyzing Jims motives, how about turning that on yourself. Are you scared that this time it might indeed be different, and you may not make much (or any) profit from selling your house? Is that causing you to see demons everywhere?
You seem to think you can say anything you please. A bit of consideration for other peoples feelings will go a long way.
BTW, I don’t own a home (never have owned one) and if prices don’t drop by 20-25% in the next 2-03 years, I’ll move out of the San Diego area. So I do hope Jim is wrong.
ParticipantPowayseller wrote:
“traffic, then you could tolerate it. My dentist’s receptionist left Vista because her kids were so scared to get beaten up in the school bathroom, that they would “hold it” all day. Have you ever heard of such a thing? Afraid of going into the school bathroom? She said the schools were very very bad.”
I thought you said that about San Marcos High once, might be mistaken.
If you work in Vista/Carlsbad/San Marcos/Oceanside and need not move to find alternative work (say you are a lawyer), Vista can give some good deals. The money you save will more than offset the costs of a private school education for 1 or 2 kids, for an equivalent home in Carlsbad. The elementary schools Lake and middle school Madison in Vista are not bad. And even Rancho Buena Vista high school is not the pits like San Marcos high.
If you need to commute ever to San Diego for work, the best option is Shadowridge in Vista. I used to drive from there to work in Carlsbad (I still work in Carlsbad). Now that Melrose is open, it should take you about 20 minutes to hit 5 via La Costa. Or you can take Rancho Santa Fe via Melrose and take El Camino to the Manchester exit (about 1/2 hour even at rush time).
ParticipantFormerSanDiegan wrote:
“sdrealtor I appreciate your perspective and comments and even agree with you sometimes (especially on this thread wrt reverse bidding war opinions), but that was an asinine comment !”
I think sdrealtor was just making a joke. But serious question for asinautica. You said you would buy a house 20K less, since that could make a difference to whether the kid went to a good college. Assuming you buy a house at a good price (not now) doesn’t it make more sense to do what sdrealtor is saying? At least the house has a *possibility* of appreciating at the rate of inflation over the long term. The car loses value the minute you buy it. Better to buy a honda civic or something like that and save 15K + the interest on it, no?
ParticipantPowayseller, I wasn’t able to understand from your post whether you realized that I was just joking. Realtors are actually the last group I would blame (inspite of Lie-reah et. al). The fundamental cause was GREED of normal people. Everyone wanted 20% appreciation YOY and were willing to pay for it. As Galbraith says, at the end of every financial mania, finger-pointing starts, but rarely is there the acknowledgement that GREED of the participants is what set the whole thing off in motion. Sure the Fed deserves some blame – for being wrong in their deflationary concerns and keeping rates down too long, but the fundamental cause is still GREED.
Participantsdrealtor wrote:
“And I thought it was all my fault;)”
Ok sdrealtor, I modified it as follows. Hope you are happy now :-).
In my view, the big three housing boom culprits are:
(1) sdrealtor
(2) Too many years of artificially low interest rates via the Fed;
(3) Too much easy credit via lenders (option ARMs, etc.); and
(4) A lack of risk aversion on the part of home buyers and investors, mostly a result of the “Greenspan Put.”I’m sure there are other reasons, but I’d say these are the Big Four.
ParticipantI have seen this happen at a company I used to work. They gave layoff notices and *then* decided who to keep, to fullfil existing contractual obligations. This was in MD. In MD, if you lay-off more than > X% of your work-force (forget what X is), you have to give 2 months advance notice. So if it’s a large number and they just want to fullfil existing obligations, the trick is to give 2 months notice and the start to figure out who is abssolutely required. That buys them some time. May be that’s not the case here, but it’s probably something similar.
September 6, 2006 at 4:05 AM in reply to: Roubini: How Bearish Does The Stock Market Get During a Recession? 28% Down…or Growling in Bearishness #34498ParticipantHis recession call is recent. He started a few months back. If it does happen, he’ll end up as an instant superstar.
ParticipantNote that El Dorado and Rancho Carrillo come uunder San Marcos school district, which is shitty to say the least. The elementary school in Carrillo is decent, but in no way can be called good. So don’t buy there if you want to send your kid to a public school.
ParticipantI believe Roubini is from Italy.
Participant“Submitted by no_such_reality on August 10, 2006 – 1:45pm.
$300,000 Looks about right.
1**7 Elm Ridge Drive, Vista, CA 92081
Price Reduced: 07/28/06 — $525,000 to $495,000
Price Reduced: 08/07/06 — $495,000 to $450,000Zillow sez:
Zestimate: $530,989
03/12/2002: $275,000
12/23/1997: $179,500”no_such_reality – I am on board with you on this. 300K from the price in 1997 gives a compounded annual return of 6%. Assuming inflation has been 3-4%, it is still more than 2% over inflation. Let’s generously assume that 1997 was undervalued. That would make about 300K the right price.
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