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an
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]
That’s not what I meant by exceptionalism. That’s just money. By your measures, Dubai and Singapore are better than we are. What about the growth and wealth creation in China? [/quote]I never said those are what make us exceptional. Those are just my prediction.[quote=FlyerInHi]We are exceptional because of our ideas and governance. Trumpismo is moving us in the direction of Chavismo or Putinism. [/quote]I agree with this and this is what I call BS to. No one man can stop ideas and I believe our governance and constitution is set up in a way where one man can’t destroy our exceptionalism.
Participant[quote=spdrun]A programmable coffee maker still needs to be prefilled with coffee and water to be ready to make coffee. Not convinced that not having to push a button on the way to the bathroom in the morning actually saves any time over pushing it.
Much of the electronic tech that has come out recently is utter gimmick-laden shit.[/quote]Here’s another prediction, your (spdrun) living standard will be worse. Since all the things that you think are shit is what will be advancing.
Participant[quote=zk][quote=AN]
Here’s my prediction…
– Housing: more expensive
– Income: higher
– Rent: higher
– Stock: higher
– Inflation: higher
– Labor participation: higher
– Standard of living: better than it is today[/quote]Interesting predictions. Just for the record, when you say better standard of living, are you including the middle class in that?[/quote]Yes, everyone. Uber, Amazon, more life saving drugs, nanotech, AI, etc. All of those will be accessible to everyone. That’s what I mean why better standard of living. Science will progress and there will be break throughs that will dramatically improve people’s living standard.
Participant[quote=flu][quote=AN][quote=FlyerInHi]I agree, zk. Trumpismo is pretty much the beginning of the end of american exceptionalism which is ironic because Trumpistas voted for America First.[/quote]Total BS. American Exceptionalism can’t be killed by one man. That’s the same BS that the right wing nut job have been peddling for the last 8 years.
Here’s my prediction…
– Housing: more expensive
– Income: higher
– Rent: higher
– Stock: higher
– Inflation: higher
– Labor participation: higher
– Standard of living: better than it is today[/quote]I think I would agree with you except I would add the one thing. The wealth gap is gonna get a lot wider too. Note to self. Don’t fall down, or you are going to get left behind.[/quote]I totally agree with that as well.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]I agree, zk. Trumpismo is pretty much the beginning of the end of american exceptionalism which is ironic because Trumpistas voted for America First.[/quote]Total BS. American Exceptionalism can’t be killed by one man. That’s the same BS that the right wing nut job have been peddling for the last 8 years.
Here’s my prediction…
– Housing: more expensive
– Income: higher
– Rent: higher
– Stock: higher
– Inflation: higher
– Labor participation: higher
– Standard of living: better than it is todayParticipant[quote=Rich Toscano]Ok, we can agree to disagree on what does and doesn’t count as “market timing,” but semantics aside, my original point remains. (Which was: whatever your position is on the matter shouldn’t change because someone guessed the short term market direction right one time).[/quote]I think that’s where you misunderstood me. It’s not about guessing the right direction of the the market short term. It’s about not knowing which direction the market will go because you don’t know how the vote will turn out. I sold the day of the election and bought right back in the morning after the election. Not because I was right in guessing the direction of the market (I actually had no guess as to which direction it will go the next morning and would be happy in either direction), but because the risk is gone. Also, as a long term investor, don’t you re-balance your portfolio base on where you expect the economy will go? When you have two people w/ two very different view of the economy, how can you invest long term in one sector vs another without knowing which direction the country will go? Wouldn’t you want to take the opportunity to pick the industry/sector you think will do the best in the next 4 years after knowing who won the presidency?
Participant[quote=plm]Yes timing the market for a long duration is much worse than what you did which is more like risk adversion. But I would think most people who sold did not get back in right away like you did missing out on the rally. My problem was as the market kept going up without a correction, I stayed out since it just seemed more likely that there would be a correction.[/quote]You’re correct and I agree with you that it’s impossible to time the market. Which is why like you said, what I did is more like risk aversion than timing the market, because what I did is not dependent on time but more dependent on the event that can cause major risk passing.
Participant[quote=cvmom]I disagree. Missing even just a few very good days in the market (which no one can accurately predict when they will be) can cause your returns to be significantly lower than buy-and-hold. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-missing-out-on-25-days-in-the-stock-market-over-45-years-costs-you-dearly-2016-01-25%5B/quote%5D
I’m not talking about missing a few days. I’m talking about selling the day of the election and buy back the morning after if the floor didn’t fall out underneath us. Which mean you only miss a few minutes to hours depending on when you sell and buy.ParticipantThere’s a difference between trying to time the market by staying in cash for a long extended period time to buy and sell at the time you think its optimal and to not participate in the market for a few days while you wait for an event to occur that can potentially crater the market. Once the event happened, then you’d buy back in at whatever price it is. That’s not timing the market. That’s just remove risk from your portfolio for a short period of time.
Participant[quote=flu][quote=AN][quote=flu]It would be nice to throw a phone/tablet/laptop into one thing.
The other thing that will be interesting to see is what apple does. I’m thinking maybe they can run the full OSX on ARM now too and not have a separate iOS….
At least for tablets/laptops. If that’s the case, would Apple drop x86 from their desktop too?[/quote]I don’t know if Apple is even attempting this, because their iOS market is IMHO much stronger than their OSX market. So, it would be dumb to drop iOS. Which is why you haven’t seen anything like this from Apple. They’re heading down the patch of the two OS being aware of each other instead of combining into one.[/quote]Perhaps….
There was this suggesting that Sierra might support their ARM A11 Hurricane processor…
macOS Sierra code suggests Apple could replace Intel in Macs with custom ARM chips
I don’t think from an app developer, there’s too much difference in the API’s between iOS and those in OSX (where the later is a more restrictive set).[/quote]
I’m not sure if the APIs are at parity, especially when you’re talking about UI API. Then there’s also the fact that iOS app does not scale well because the API set is designed by a phone size screen. That’s why you don’t have as nearly as many iPad apps as iPhone apps, because it’s not easy to just create another view for larger screen. So, the app developers would have to update their app if Apple allow iOS app submission into OSX. Microsoft have been working on OneCore with one set of API for a few years now. So, I’m sure if it’s as easy as you think it is. Especially when you have to worry about backward compatibility.Participant[quote=flu]It would be nice to throw a phone/tablet/laptop into one thing.
The other thing that will be interesting to see is what apple does. I’m thinking maybe they can run the full OSX on ARM now too and not have a separate iOS….
At least for tablets/laptops. If that’s the case, would Apple drop x86 from their desktop too?[/quote]I don’t know if Apple is even attempting this, because their iOS market is IMHO much stronger than their OSX market. So, it would be dumb to drop iOS. Which is why you haven’t seen anything like this from Apple. They’re heading down the patch of the two OS being aware of each other instead of combining into one.Participant[quote=spdrun]Laptop is one thing, phone is another. Find me a phone with 16GB RAM, swappable battery, and 1TB storage to avoid cloudfucking my data. No? I’ll stick with my Thinkpad.
I’d consider an ARM notebook provided you can still turn the spyware in Win 10 off.[/quote]You’re not their target audience. So, it’s not for you.
Participant[quote=NotCranky][quote=AN]Totally agree. This is a big hit to Intel and big boon for QCOM.
Photoshop runs pretty well in the demo on just the 820. The animation is pretty smooth too. This should be exciting to see it evolve over the next 2-5 years. I think it’s a game changer. Especially for companies. Why buy your employee a laptop/desktop and a phone when you can just buy them a phone and just have a monitor/keyboard/mouse at every cubicle.[/quote]
That’s amazing. I might not replace my home PC next time I need one if I can do that. Does that make sense ?[/quote]That’s the holy grail, but I don’t expect it to be mostly there until late next year or even early 2018 when MSFT release the Redstone release 4 or 5. They only demo laptop running on ARM. They have continuum for phone and the rumor is that for x86 apps, it’ll run only in Continuum mode on big screen with keyboard/mouse, since x86 apps weren’t designed to be touchable and on a small screen.
The Snapdragon 835 releasing early 2017 is supposed to be 25%+ faster than the previous version as well as being a lot more power efficient. So by late 2017 early 2018, QCOM will release their next version chip which should be even more powerful and more power efficient.
ParticipantTotally agree. This is a big hit to Intel and big boon for QCOM.
Photoshop runs pretty well in the demo on just the 820. The animation is pretty smooth too. This should be exciting to see it evolve over the next 2-5 years. I think it’s a game changer. Especially for companies. Why buy your employee a laptop/desktop and a phone when you can just buy them a phone and just have a monitor/keyboard/mouse at every cubicle.
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