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an
Participant[quote=flu]If by remodeling you mean just the inside, no I don’t think it would be the same, because some people probably would still view the outside as looking old.
If you are talking about a complete teardown to make it look more modern, then probably some would then say the neighborhood still looks old,
People that are drawn to a new home, are probably looking at the entire appearance of the neighborhood.
Vanity 101 i guess.
At one point, I had considered Pardee’s then new Saratoga home, because it was in a newer neighborhood, even the actual sqft was the same as my existing home. I eventually chickend out because I was too cheap and didn’t want to pay for the premium. but plenty of people did. Evan as resales now, Saratoga homes still have a premium over comparables i think.[/quote]
When I say remodeling, I was referring to inside and out. I haven’t seen this new development and how it feel, but areas along Sorrento Valley Blvd and Calle Cristobal with HOA still look pretty new.The only thing about looking more modern is that, you can’t always look more modern. Example would be, houses in the 80s look more modern in the 80s while houses in the 70s look dated. But now, 20-30 years later, they both look old and dated.
I basically have 2 questions. One is, is new really worth $200k (45%) premium right now. Two is, would that premium sustainable after 20+ years. Keep in mind that these lots are nothing special. If anything, it’s worse than your typical lot in MM since it’s smaller. 20 years from now, would it matter if the house is 20 years old or 30 years old? At that point, wouldn’t they all be old? Taste and style change all the time, so I’m almost certain that what’s desirable today is not desirable 20+ years from now. If you don’t think the premium will be sustainable after 20+ years, do you see a new house development like this pulling up the houses around it over time, or do you see these new houses appreciate at a slower pace comparing to older houses in the area?
Like you, I did consider newer too. However, like you, I was too cheap and didn’t want to pay for the premium. Maybe this is why it’s so hard for me to wrap my head around why someone would pay $200k (45%) premium for these houses.
Participant[quote=sreeb]I am acutely aware of the job market for the types of people Qcom employs.
Can you name the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th employers of telcom engineers in the Sorrento Valley area? How many do they collectively employ compared to Qcom? How much of their business is dependant on Qcom?
Drive around Sorrento Valley. Most of the buildings have a sign saying “Qualcomm”. Most of the rest have a sign saying “Available”.
Once upon a time there was a large population of Linkabit spin offs, startups, and companies opening design centers. That is all history now.
I only suggest that there is merit in a little diversification no matter how stable your employer looks today. Buying a house is a long term commitment. Longer than anyones Qcom forecast.[/quote]
Again, why does it matter if QCOM is the biggest player in Sorrento Valley? It’s not surprising and they’re only going to get bigger as the smartphone market get bigger. Now that ARM is moving into tablets and Windows 8 supporting ARM, that’s a who new untapped market for QCOM. They’ve been around for 30 years. I can easily see them being around for at least another 10 if not 20 years.A job center is a job center. If QCOM goes away, do you think all these office building will sit empty? If it does go away, it will go away slowly. In that transitioning time, there will be some other company that will replace it. As an engineer, you’ll adapt to whatever industry that’s thriving right now. 5-6 years ago, there’s no such thing as iOS development or Android development. I’m sure 10 years from now, it’ll be something else all together. But one thing is for sure, San Diego have zoned Sorrento Valley and UTC for offices and business building. It will only get more dense as San Diego grow and more jobs move into town.
Yes, buying is a long term commitment. But I don’t see how prognosticating that QCOM will go away some day will mean you should rent vs buy. I’ve worked at 5 different companies so far and they all are in Sorrento Valley, Carmel Valley, and Scripps Ranch. So even without QCOM, there will be others to take its place.
ParticipantAnother question for you guys regarding what’s considered “new” to get the “new” premium. I’m sure I’m totally off base here, but wouldn’t a completely remodeled home with all the modern conveniences be just as good as new?
Participant[quote=flu]MM schools aren’t THAT bad, come on…And frankly CV schools are overrated. Only a small percentage of people *that* snooty when it comes to schools.
Highland Village i think is selling considerably above attached townhomes on the other side of CV (near Ralphs).
So yes, I think there is a premium that people are paying for new homes. Same could be said for Carriage Run, which I use to laugh at all the time. I’m not laughing anymore. People have paid around mid $800k for those too, and those are pretty much sold out.This MM community I think has the convenience factor, so I think it will be a winner. It will bring up MM and the surrounding and schools.[/quote]
You and I can agree that MM schools aren’t “THAT” bad, but your average buyer doesn’t know that. Even long time San Diegan like UCGal was surprised. It will take many many years to change an image of an area (WRT to school quality). I know those who grew up here and are doing quite well think it’s subpar (even when they themselves are doing well in life while being part of the “subpar” schools). So, stigma is hard to shake off.No, doubt that there is a premium for new vs old. I’m only questioning whether the premium is $200k or $25-50k. Maybe putting it in % might make my point a little more clear. I can see 10-20% premium for new, but $200k is equivalent to ~45% premium. I personally think 45% premium is way too high, that’s why I’m asking you guys to see what you guys think.
I don’t think this area will add enough home to make a difference to MM schools. This is not considering that some of those parents might send their kids to private school. I know that there are a few 92121 parents sending their kids to my kids’ school. So, those kids are not helping bringing up MM schools.
Participant[quote=flu][quote=AN]I understand that this will be newer than most SFR in MM, but will this drive down the houses in MM that were built in the 90s without those new home features, like great rooms, home networks, etc. If you have a houses that’s built in the 80s-90s that has been remodeled with these features, would buyers view it in the same light when both are resale?
Wouldn’t taste change 10-20 years from now and some of these features will be outdated, just like some of the features that were the in thing in the 80s-90s?[/quote]I think quite the opposite possibly. If the ultimate result attracts new buyers who presumably have a higher economic background (being that these homes are in the 600’s and that the days of crazy financing have gone), I think the only thing that would happen is the neighborhood gets better, not worse. Folks with higher income levels will raise the levels in spending in local areas, school scores, etc. And this will feed on itself.[/quote]
I understand the effect of getting new more expensive housing stock built in an area. I agree with all the advantages you listed. My post was in response to sdr’s statement that there’s a cachet with new homes. So, I asked if the cachet will fetch $200k premium. If it does, then what would it do to those homes that currently enjoy the cachet of being the newest homes in the area. If anything, I was hoping it would drive down those houses so I can pick one up for myself :-D. I hate these new houses with narrow and TINY lots. I thought my lot is already is small at 5200 sq-ft. For $650k, I rather pick up something like this one: http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-110041512-6181_Sunset_Crest_Way_San_Diego_CA_92121. It currently enjoy the “newest house/development” cachet. If that cachet is gone, I was hoping I can pick it up for high 500s :-D.Participant[quote=flu]Yes AN… If in doubt, checkout the ATTACHED pardee homes “Highlands Village” at the end of Carmel Country Highland area in CV. Some of these larger townhomes are in the $600k and are being sold, probably to techie folks that want their kids to be able to go to Ocean Air or Sage Canyon. So relatively speaking, I think these SFH will do just fine. Pardee’s got this market dialed in pretty well.[/quote]
But those Highlands Village is in CV with CV’s school. This is in Mira Mesa with Mira Mesa school. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to get more high priced homes in MM, it just help bring up the median income of the area, which can only help. I’m just skeptical as to if there will be buyers for these at ~$200k above resale. Those Highlands Village attached homes are not selling at $200k above comparable resale, are they?Participant[quote=sreeb][quote=AN][quote=sreeb][quote=sdrealtor]Pardee has owned Carmel Valley and the other side of that canyon in SOrrento Mesa for a long time. I just drove by the area today showing a house in MM to a client. When I saw that location all I could think was Qualcomm/Telecom engineers wanting to buy new houses close to work. Those houses and condos are going to fly off the shelves.[/quote]
Qualcomm engineers are the last ones who should be buying in Mira Mesa or Carmal Valley. The big Q looks good now but if they start to cut back, there is nobody else to employ these guys in SD. You could lose your job and have your house crater on the same day. Those Qualcomm engineers who want to live close should rent.[/quote]
When do you see them cutting back?[/quote]I have no special thoughts on when. Nothing is forever in tech though.[/quote]so, you advise people to rent based on that statement? Qcom have been around for almost 30 years. San Diego want to make Sorrento Valley and UTC to be one of their main employment area. Even if qcom doesn’t last forever, Sorrento Valley and UTC will be employment center for many years to come.
Participant[quote=ocrenter][quote=AN][quote=blake]Linsanity propels MSG shares to record high
Dude earned his paycheck alright.[/quote]
First time I read that headline, I was like MSG – Monosodium glutamate? A Chinese dude and MSG, haha.[/quote]Correction, Taiwanese American.[/quote]
Dude, do you want me to just say Asian American?Participant[quote=blake]Linsanity propels MSG shares to record high
Dude earned his paycheck alright.[/quote]
First time I read that headline, I was like MSG – Monosodium glutamate? A Chinese dude and MSG, haha.ParticipantGo Jeremy Go!!!
Participant[quote=sreeb][quote=sdrealtor]Pardee has owned Carmel Valley and the other side of that canyon in SOrrento Mesa for a long time. I just drove by the area today showing a house in MM to a client. When I saw that location all I could think was Qualcomm/Telecom engineers wanting to buy new houses close to work. Those houses and condos are going to fly off the shelves.[/quote]
Qualcomm engineers are the last ones who should be buying in Mira Mesa or Carmal Valley. The big Q looks good now but if they start to cut back, there is nobody else to employ these guys in SD. You could lose your job and have your house crater on the same day. Those Qualcomm engineers who want to live close should rent.[/quote]
When do you see them cutting back?Participant[quote=sdrealtor]I dont beleive they will hurt the surrounding area. To the contrary they can only help by improving the cachet of the area. I hope this next comment doesnt come off as racist in any way but it has been my experience that Asian buyers have a strong preference for new homes particularly those coming from out of the area. I dont know exactly what the reason is. Whether it is to have something new untouched by others or the sense of security in something new but I have seen it over and over again.[/quote]
In your opinion/experience, how much premium does buyer put on new vs old? Right now, according to Pardee, it would be $200k. If you see them flying off the shelve, does that mean you think $200k premium is valid or do you see resale in the area closing that gap?BTW, I don’t take your 2nd comment as racist. It is true. Asian tend to like new. But they tend to also want value and not overpay. To those who want new, they don’t want newer, so, as soon as it becomes resale, it’s no longer view, even if it’s 1 year old. So, those Asian you’re referring to would not put the premium on the “newer” homes.
Participant[quote=outtamojo]Imo, kids moving in and driving up/maintaining area API scores will have a bigger effect on property values than interior styling.[/quote]
I understand and totally agree with that. The reason why I’m bringing this up is, these new houses are much much more expensive than anything out there in either 92121 and 92126 part of Mira Mesa. On the 92121 side, for mid $600k, you can get 2500-2900 sq-ft depending on view. Also, those lots are larger. On the 92126 side, similar sized house are in the high $400k to mid $500k depending on view. Both of these sets of houses were built in the 90s. These are also sitting on larger lots. If you go to similar lot size in 92126, similar houses built in the 90s are going for mid $400k. So, we’re talking about $200k premium for new vs old (this haven’t even counted in the cost of landscaping).This is why I’m asking if having that “newest” cachet really bring in that kind of premium. For $200k, you get have a totally gutted and rebuilt with high end materials and improve layouts and modern features. If being newest does bring in the higher premium, then does it mean that with this development being built, the houses built in the 90s on both 92121 and 92126 side will lose its “newest” cachet, which would drive down its prices?
ParticipantI understand that this will be newer than most SFR in MM, but will this drive down the houses in MM that were built in the 90s without those new home features, like great rooms, home networks, etc. If you have a houses that’s built in the 80s-90s that has been remodeled with these features, would buyers view it in the same light when both are resale?
Wouldn’t taste change 10-20 years from now and some of these features will be outdated, just like some of the features that were the in thing in the 80s-90s?
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