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ParticipantEven if the market flat line like some optimist predicted, you’re still throwing your money away if you buy. You might not throw it away to the landlord, but you’ll be throwing it to the bank. Interest does not build equity, so it makes so difference. If rent is much cheaper than interest on a comparable home, even after all the tax deductions, I think it’s a no brainer. I’m going to be a first time home buy as well when the market makes more sense. In the mean time, I can rent and live very comfortable in a 1600+sq-ft townhouse for the same price as a tiny 1-2 bedroom condo.
Participant“Personally I have found people who get emotional about financial transactions enjoy talking about the successes but clam up about negative outcomes.”
I find the same thing. People tend to be very verbal about their successful transaction and never say anything about their unsuccessful transaction. So, I tend to take everything w/ a grain of salt.
Participant“Go watch the Simpsons if you don’t have anything worth while to add.”
Wow, this post has so much information.
Participant“Million dollar sales puff up sfr resales, cheap condo conversions bring down new home sales. It all gets mixed up in medians.
Nah, closing costs and taxes will kill me. Won’t do 1031 either. I’ll just collect (rising) rents. All are prop 13, 2 are f&c, 1 @ 4.35% fixed finished in 6 yrs, about the time I’ll buy additional properties for 50% off ha ha.”I thought you don’t believe it’ll be down more than 10%, now you say 50%? Wow, and I was told I’m confused.
If you think it won’t drop more than 10%, why don’t you dump all your cash in and buy 10 more @ 0% down and get the “rising” rent. Contradition galore.
ParticipantAgree, but it’s really sad that the majority of the public use those data to make their decision to buy and sell.
ParticipantVery good explanation PS, you nailed it in the head. Lets say your price range is $500k and the house that fetched $500k last year is now $400k, would you buy that $400k house or would you buy a larger and better house for $500k that was $600k or $700k? That is why median price will always show very small decline in comparison to the actual decline. If you still don’t believe it, do your own research. I know someone who bought a 1480sq-ft house in March 05 for $565k, the owner before him bought it for around $580k, and now, a 1700+sq-ft house a couple of houses away is listing for around $550k and a 1480sq-ft house down the street is listing for around $500k. This is around Compass Point Dr. In 92126. Those are SFR just for your info. I can pull up multiple examples in just this tiny area with the same result. So please tell me again, who’s confused?
ParticipantWhat case do you have? Show me your data that show May or June 06 median price and Nov 05 price. According to DQNews, Nov 05 median is $518K and May 06 median is $490K. Tell me who’s confused here? Last I checked, $490k is less than $518k and that’s about 5.4% drop. Maybe you learned your math from Mars or something.
ParticipantJust check the Median price in Nov 05 and Median price now. That’s all I have to say.
ParticipantI’ll agree with 10% EVERY year for the next 5-6 years. But not 10% total over the next 6 years. If your bet is 10% total over next 6 years, I’ll take that bet anyday since it’s already 1/2 way there only a few months after the peak.
ParticipantThat was the area I was interested in and still keep an eye on. But now, I’m more interested in the house w/ big lots on northern side of Mira Mesa & Sorrento Valley, along the Calle Cristabal Blvd. Our price range will be between 500-600, so, we’ll see what I can get at the bottom of this cycle.
Participantsdrealtor, thanks for clarifying. I guess it was lower last year than I thought. Which would definitely lower the the % decline. I agree with you that the new is definitely trying to grab the next sale since it’s listed @ 450-465, while most others have been on the market for several months in the 480-500 range. If this house does not sell in the next week or 2, I would definitely say that the “market” price of those houses are under 450. We’ll just have to wait and see.
ParticipantHere’s my own observation in my area, Mira Mesa, 92126: I generally keep an eye on single family homes that’s less than 10 years old. Which means, most of them are around the Compass Point dr. area, on the east end of Mira Mesa by the 15. About a year ago, I know someone who bought a 1480sq-ft house in that area for $565k. That was the average going price for that size around that time. The smaller houses which is in the 1300sq-ft range were listing and selling for $540-550k range. The last 6 months, I’ve seen prices of those 1300sq-ft houses drift down to $480k and most of them are not selling. This past week, another 1300sq-ft house listed for $460k-$475k, then 2 days later, dropped to $450k-$465k. It’s still not sold. So I’m not sure what’s the going rate for those houses in that area is right now, but it seems like it has to be less than $450k.
Participantthe one in RB/92128 is a prefab house.
Participant“I think we were about the only brand new house in the Poway school district on 5 acres with ocean view”
Ocean view? How do you get ocean view on Poway? the west end of poway is at least 5-10 miles from the coast. I would assume you live on the east end since it’s borderline Lakeside. I don’t know about you but 5-10 miles and you need a binocular to see the ocean.
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