[an]

If recession occur in Q1 07, then the correlation between auto industry and recession you were pointing out earlier is wrong since Q3 06, auto industry increased over 9%.

[an]

According to Rich’s post a few days ago, rent did not go down. Rent only go down if it out pace inflation, which I don’t think it did. At least not in SD. It basically kept pace w/ income and inflation. a 2bed/2bath apartment in Mira Mesa around 1998 was about $900/month. A mortgage of a 1500 sq-ft 4bed/2bath house in Mira Mesa was about $1000/month in 1998. Just to give some perspective as to how low house price can go in regards to rent.

[an]

Q3 06 revised GDP shows auto sales went up 9+%. So I guess we’re not heading for a recession anymore.

[an]

Some are smart, some are just delaying the judgment day. If they refi w/ another I/O ARM to extend it another 5 years and do a cash out at the same time to pay for the refi, would that be smart? Even the stupid will refi if they can to delay the judgment day.

I don’t remember if she say this or not, but didn’t she mean that the high % of default are from the ARM resetting? If they refi, then those ARM never reset, so those ARM shouldn’t count.

[an]

I agree with you PC and PS, the bet is pointless because there’s no way to prove who’s right and who’s wrong due to the fact that people will refi out of the original ARM before they default. Unless you can track every original ARM and only count ones that did not refi, then you have some solid case. I do believe that the probability of the original ARM default is pretty high if they don’t refi.

[an]

sdr, I know it was a short sale. Does it really matter though? I know what they paid and what they MEWed to. I didn’t bring it up because I don’t see a reason to. I’m just showing that because of these cases where sell must sell, either because of short sale or foreclosure, it will drive the market down. I’m only using 5.5 because that’s the # yahoo is giving me from online banks for a 30 year fixed.

[an]

So, jg, how much money, time, and blood did you give last year?

[an]

PS, I’m not trying to convince you to change your view. I’m just trying to say that there are a lot more gray area in a discussion than black or white. To you, seems like a lot of things are a sure thing. Lets see of that S&P 600 is a sure thing.

[an]

I don’t know the exact reason why it went down. It could possibly be that last year’s sales were artificially inflated due to the 0% interest and employee discount and such from the big 2.5. This year, there are not as many discounts. That’s one explanation I can think of. Could it also be that big there have major concentration in trucks and SUV and since gas spiked to over $3/gal, demand decreased?

[an]

sdcellar, that’s exactly what I’ve been trying to say. Recession is not a sure thing like powayseller is trying to say. I’m just trying to play devil’s advocate and try to ask the question “why” car sales are down. It could be many reasons why sales are down. No one know for sure, that’s why I say, lets just let time tell us what will happen. We all have our point across. Now, just sit back and see who’s right.

[an]

I don’t see the difference between you buying a used BMW and some one who buy a new one? What if they love the design and engineering of the new one as much as you like yours? It’s all relative.

[an]

At first, I thought it’s a detached condo too, but according to Zip, it say SFR, so I have to take their word for it.

[an]

Ok, I’ll just hold my tongue and see if everything come crashing down this time next year. If that’s the case, everyone on this board will be unemployed, witch mean we’ll have a very lively board this time next year. Good luck to everyone.

[an]

Scripps, does that number also take into consideration of rise in rent? Also, it took into consideration of selling in 5 years @ 6% closing cost. If he stay in it for 10 years, wouldn’t that number change quite a bit?

[an]

All the comps around that size are starting $525k to as high as $575k right now. Those houses were built in 1997-1998. Here’s the MLS# of the exact same size house 2-3 short blocks away in the same complex: 066064784.

Here are some comps:
9471 COMPASS POINT DR S 4/2 1,726 null 07/24/06 0.09 $552,000 $320
9485 COMPASS POINT DR S 4/2 1,726 null 01/24/06 $567,000 $329
9481 COMPASS POINT DR S 4/2 1,726 null 07/10/05 0.13 $594,000 $344
9517 COMPASS POINT DR S 4/2 1,726 null 07/09/05 0.09 $560,000 $324
9523 COMPASS POINT DR S 4/2 1,726 null 06/28/05 0.09 $585,000 $339
9527 COMPASS POINT DR S 4/2 1,726 null 05/11/05 0.08 $600,000 $348
9461 COMPASS POINT DR S 4/2 1,726 null 03/12/05 $570,000 $330

So it got as high as $600k in 1.5 years ago.

[Author]

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