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Bugs, do you have the GRM data on the last 2 cycles (peak and valley)? I just want to know if the GRM is consistent at the bottom. With a 120 GRM, a $3500 rent = $420k. That’s a pretty typical rent price for a million dollar house these days. Even at 150 GRM, it’s equate to $525k and 175 GRM, it’s $612k. So, even with a 175 GRM, we still have a long way to fall.

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temeculaguy, I have no qualm with people stating the facts about certain area, like flight path, noise, gangs, violence etc. These are all great things to learn about an area you’re interested in buying because it’s much more real than what you can read in reports. However, I’m referring to baseless statements of “I wouldn’t touch

with a 10 foot pole” is tasteless to me and have no real value. If you say I don’t like so and so area because of this and that, hence, I would never consider living there. That’s perfectly fine with me. Something that would bother one person to a point where they would not consider living in such an area might not bother the next person.

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Nice try Drew ;-). You don’t have to worry about competition from me though, not my cup of tea :-).

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We all have areas we wouldn’t touch with any length pole. I don’t see the point in stating your personal preference in a way that would offend people who are living there or are looking to live there. It’s just distasteful and classless. Just my 2 cents.

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… It’s starting to sound like this thread is sponsored by the Bay Park Chamber of Commerce.

I totally agree. After reading this thread, I looked up Bay Park to see what’s all the rave is about. The location is nice.

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I completely agree with you SD Realtor. I hope it’s going to be short and steep but it seems like it’s a cross between a crash and a soft landing. It is what it is. I’ll just be patient and save up until buying make sense again.

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There’s also rumor about Google putting in a bid for DJ.

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There’s really no point in trying to go against the trend. We’ve been it twice in the last 10 years, psychology run the show, the the fundamental. People was calling bubble several years before the .com bust as well as this RE bust. So given that it always run a few more years past the point where price gets disconnect from fundamental, what make this time any different? Sure those stocks that davelj listed prove his point, but I can very list a different list of stocks like GOOG, MSFT, AAPL, QCOM, HERO, VLO, XOM, etc to prove that there are other companies who are making great profit, better than last year and better than expectation. I don’t see the point is fighting the trend. If you keep your eyes open and don’t let yourself get caught up and have an exit strategy, you can take advantage of the run up as well as the run down. It takes many years to finish a cycle and turn around, so it’s better to be follower of the up/down trend than trying to guess the top or bottom. With an exit strategy, you can lock in your profit when the market turn.

Also, remember that although tech crashed hard in the last crash, RE, GOLD, and OIL all rallied hard. I think that investment money have to go somewhere, they don’t just sit idle in CD. That’s just my theory, we’ll see if it’ll happen during the next down cycle.

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paranoid, I totally agree. The stock market is all about expectation. I’ve seen it many times where company A release exceptional earning, but fell short of expectation and it got hammered. While company B release horrible earning but beat expectation and it rallied. So, expectation is the key.

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Funny how you say that about $25k. I totally agree. The funny part is that, when I watch Zip, some people lower their $500k+ house $5-10k at a time. I wonder if that will make anyone change their mind about the house after that kind of reduction.

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A new grad w/ a master obviously will make more, but I don’t think they’re considered Software Engineering I. Last I check, a master new grade make about $5-10k more than a BS new grad. Given the time difference in entry, the guy w/ the BS can easily make up that $5-10k difference by the time the guy w/ the master graduate. That’s not considering the guy w/ the master now have the loan from graduate school to pay. The pay difference is not that big. The salary from salary.com is pretty precise. According to salary.com, a 4-6 years software engineer III make around $80k. No way a new grad w/ a master make that much. I know many guys w/ master and worked for 4-5 years, and they’re still in the $80-90k range.

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Considering new tech grads are seeing $70-80k while when I started it was closer to $40k.

Wow, which industry is this? I know plenty of people with 2-3 years experience barely breaking $70k. I also know plenty of people with 0-2 years experience starting around $50-55k. This is in telecom & gov contractor industry. Please tell me the industry that pay entry level $70-80k so I can get into that industry :-).

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Here’s my theory, there will always be more people who want to buy than houses. However, at the bottom, not everyone can qualify while at the top, everyone can quality. So interest will always be there, but whether they can actually get a loan or not is a different story.

I just noticed that although Evergreen is supposed to be sold out, their plan 2 model is on the MLS now. Asking price is $850-899k. Well above the $790k starting price.

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CONCHO, I totally forgot about that advantage too. The chance if refinancing at the rate today is next to never. Unless we experience what Japan did and have rate at 0%, I doubt people who buy now can refinance to lower rate. Which mean they’re stuck at the current payment for 15-30 years. However, if you buy at high rate and low price, you can refinance when rate drop again for an even lower payment. I know someone who did just that. Bought in 1996 @ low price and high rate, refinanced recently to very low fixed rate. Now, the payment is around $800/month. How’s that for good timing.

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I personally would prefer buying a $350k house @ 12% than a $600k house @5-6%. This means more of your payment is tax deductible and each additional payment make a bigger dent.

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