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Allan from Fallbrook
ParticipantWhere have we heard all of this before?
Oh, yeah. During the 1970s we had stagflation, oil shocks and the rising dominance of the Soviet “empire”.
During the 1980s we had Japan, Inc. and their newfound wealth, coupled with their plan to dominate the world (starting with their purchase of Pebble Beach and Rockefeller Center).
During the late 1990s we had the rise of China and the Asian Tiger economies.
Not to pooh pooh any of what you are saying, because we do face serious challenges as a country and an economy, but if you think India and China are serious competition to the US in the near run, you are horribly misinformed.
Do a little research about the state of China’s economy, specifically as it relates to their ability to develop adequate accounting, finance and legal standards, as well as their marked inability to maintain a stable management corps of talent.
India is facing problems with corruption, infrastructure issues, and a skyrocketing cost of labor.
Russia? Iran? Please. Russia’s supposed power is simply a function of their over-reliance on very finite natural resources (gas and oil) and their shakedown of Western Europe by selling same. Putin is a thug, nothing more.
Iran is a regional power, if that, and faces a brewing internal revolution from an informed citizenry that is becoming ever more dissatisfied with Iran’s hard line approach in the region and the world.
Too many conspiracy theories and not enough objective reading of both current affairs and past history.
Participantkewp: I’d love to see Temecula (and Murrieta) empty out! I have to face their stinkin’ Pop Warner teams (all 200 of ’em, or so it seems!) every flippin’ football season and would be thrilled if it crashed and burned and everybody there had to move.
Course, I doubt I’ll be that lucky.
Participantkewp: I’d love to see Temecula (and Murrieta) empty out! I have to face their stinkin’ Pop Warner teams (all 200 of ’em, or so it seems!) every flippin’ football season and would be thrilled if it crashed and burned and everybody there had to move.
Course, I doubt I’ll be that lucky.
Participantkewp: I’d love to see Temecula (and Murrieta) empty out! I have to face their stinkin’ Pop Warner teams (all 200 of ’em, or so it seems!) every flippin’ football season and would be thrilled if it crashed and burned and everybody there had to move.
Course, I doubt I’ll be that lucky.
Participantbsrsharma: Yup. Kinda where I was going with that post.
We (as a society) definitely need to re-order our priorities.
Participantbsrsharma: Yup. Kinda where I was going with that post.
We (as a society) definitely need to re-order our priorities.
Participantbsrsharma: Yup. Kinda where I was going with that post.
We (as a society) definitely need to re-order our priorities.
ParticipantI would offer two points for consideration:
1) While it would be difficult and expensive, the US is perfectly capable of severing our dependency on foreign oil and the regimes that control it. France derives 80% of their energy from nuke power. We could do the same. Between that and our natural gas and oil reserves, we would do perfectly well. They are discovering natural gas deposits in this country that dwarf those of Russia and Iran combined.
2) The “Greatest Generation” was a direct product of surviving the privations of the Great Depression and was thus able to prosecute and win World War II against two very powerful and determined foes (Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany). Perhaps a little privation and self-sacrifice would do us some good and prepare us to prosecute and win the war we are now in; a war that promises to be generational in nature.
ParticipantI would offer two points for consideration:
1) While it would be difficult and expensive, the US is perfectly capable of severing our dependency on foreign oil and the regimes that control it. France derives 80% of their energy from nuke power. We could do the same. Between that and our natural gas and oil reserves, we would do perfectly well. They are discovering natural gas deposits in this country that dwarf those of Russia and Iran combined.
2) The “Greatest Generation” was a direct product of surviving the privations of the Great Depression and was thus able to prosecute and win World War II against two very powerful and determined foes (Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany). Perhaps a little privation and self-sacrifice would do us some good and prepare us to prosecute and win the war we are now in; a war that promises to be generational in nature.
ParticipantI would offer two points for consideration:
1) While it would be difficult and expensive, the US is perfectly capable of severing our dependency on foreign oil and the regimes that control it. France derives 80% of their energy from nuke power. We could do the same. Between that and our natural gas and oil reserves, we would do perfectly well. They are discovering natural gas deposits in this country that dwarf those of Russia and Iran combined.
2) The “Greatest Generation” was a direct product of surviving the privations of the Great Depression and was thus able to prosecute and win World War II against two very powerful and determined foes (Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany). Perhaps a little privation and self-sacrifice would do us some good and prepare us to prosecute and win the war we are now in; a war that promises to be generational in nature.
ParticipantPerry: Add another couple of questions.
How much is their existing capital base right now?
How much of a reserve will they need to provide in order to cover bad, sub- and non-performing loans?
In boating, there is a term called “the following sea”. It indicates a rogue wave from behind that you don’t see that swamps you. In CFC’s case, their balance sheet has to be in tatters right now. While cash flow/liquidity is the main issue immediately, they are also carrying a huge amount of drag related to bad paper.
I believe that this is what will kill them: Not what is in front, but the following sea.
ParticipantPerry: Add another couple of questions.
How much is their existing capital base right now?
How much of a reserve will they need to provide in order to cover bad, sub- and non-performing loans?
In boating, there is a term called “the following sea”. It indicates a rogue wave from behind that you don’t see that swamps you. In CFC’s case, their balance sheet has to be in tatters right now. While cash flow/liquidity is the main issue immediately, they are also carrying a huge amount of drag related to bad paper.
I believe that this is what will kill them: Not what is in front, but the following sea.
ParticipantPerry: Add another couple of questions.
How much is their existing capital base right now?
How much of a reserve will they need to provide in order to cover bad, sub- and non-performing loans?
In boating, there is a term called “the following sea”. It indicates a rogue wave from behind that you don’t see that swamps you. In CFC’s case, their balance sheet has to be in tatters right now. While cash flow/liquidity is the main issue immediately, they are also carrying a huge amount of drag related to bad paper.
I believe that this is what will kill them: Not what is in front, but the following sea.
ParticipantStansd: You make an excellent point regarding drawing down on available financing.
I used to do finance/accounting consulting for distressed businesses, and one of the first things I would check were the lines of credit.
This came to epitomize a company truly in trouble, because it speaks to the lack of liquidity. Generally speaking, it is cash flow (or lack thereof) that is gonna kill ya.
I think Mozilo saw the writing on the wall, and took the money and ran. I can’t imagine the timing of his selling all of that stock was mere coincidence.
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