[23109VC]

the house i saw with NO window coverings was in french valley, with NO view of anything except his next door and rear neighbors windows.

so while he or his wife are wakling in/around their bathroom, or changing clothes, or heck… while the owner is getting it on with his wife – the neighbors could see it in all its glory…. no thanks.

i agree..if you have a view lot.. on a hill…no rear neighbors… and you looked off to the sunset/city lights/beach/etc – no blinds is not an issue. this house was the kidn where you NEEDED them.

apparently he needed an EVO, 4 quads, and a motorcycle more than privacy… which i find typical of french valley. i also notice a lot of peole doing bbqs in their driveway – because their backyard is still a sandbox….. classy!

[23109VC]

couple of comments –

that house in foreclosure on Pasadena – I believe that is a LAKEFRONT house. I personally would NOT pay a premium b/c it’s on the lake…but most of the homes ON the lake..are priced a good 100k above the others that are not. if you have been to harveston..it has a large manmade lake/pond/whatever yuo want to call it.. i think it’s roughly .25 mile around… maybe a bit more…. it’s long and narrow..and is lined on both banks by houses… those houses sold for a premium…and right now there are 3-4 of them on the market..that one on padadena went into foreclosure. the problem is that the owners of these units WANT a premium for the lakefront address..but the property itself is basicallya botu 2000 sq ft…and it’s hard to justify a 500-600k price tag for soemthign that size…lakefront or not…

you could buy that same pasadena house OFF the lake…one street away for that 400-450k range. some of the cottages like these are stripped with NO upgrades, others ar eloaded up to the hilt with granite, travertine, cabinets, carpet…

one downside of cottages is that they have VERY small lots…almost NO yard..and they are VERY close together. given the layout you really have no privacy in your yard. one thing i dislike about a lot of these neighborhoods in harveston is the lack of any private yards. the houses back up on one another so that you go itno your backyard to relax/bbq/enjoy some peace and quiet..and you are SURROUNDED by two stories..wtih countless windows…you get that feeling of being watched. now I dont’ do any nude sunbathing…so it’s not REAQLLY much of an issue..but it is nice to feel like your backyard is sort of private….

there are a few areas in haerveston where you can not back up on rear neighbors, and NOT back up on a street – but not many of them.

overall – Harveston is a very nice community. it is well kept. just last night to help the kids falls asleep my wife and i drove through the french valley areas…we drove through the communites JUST north of latour and the other DR horton one..and the Lennas Spencers Crossing. we were suprised at how run down the neighborhoods looked. there wer a lot of brown lawn homes…and a lot of what I would consieer JUNK cars in driveways. lots of houses with what looked like service trucks – one guy actualy had a large giant car carrier..those thigns that they use to transport cars..parked on his cul de sac… you don’t see that crap in harveston. nor do you see it in many o the other more upscale areas of tem or murr – if you want to call them “upscale”.

overall – harveston is a nice place. i kind of think the lennar properties – one is prescott – is too far from the lake. you get to pay all the harveston HOAs and you’ll be too far to utilize them w/out driving in the car, which will make it that much more of a pITA to enjoy it. from my house, i can walk to the lake or parks. it makes a difference. i’m sure i’d go there less if i had to load up 3 kids into carseats for a quick walk at the lake..when you can just put them in a stroller and walk over, it’s a lot mroe convenient.

$ per square foot – here is q uestion. when you compare the price of a 2700-3000 sq ft home and come up with a price per square foot…vs comparing a 1900-2100 sq ft house – it’s not really fair to compare the price. a good part of what you are apying for is really teh lot. so if the lots are similar in size, and similar in cost…the hosue may be larger..but to just say a 3000 sq ft house is 175/sq ft…but a 2000 one is 200/sq ft.. you can’t really compare a 2000 sq ft home to a 3000 sq ft home in te4rms of makign an apples to apples comparison of price per sq ft.

you’d need to compare that 2000 sq ft house to other homes of roughly the same size. as you go bigger, i tend to find that you will get lower prices per square foot…since you are spreading the cost of the land across more square feet…. make sense? it’s almost like you get a bit of a break on price per sq ft if you buid a larger house on a lot instead of the smaller house.. since you still have the cost of the land in there.. regardless of how big the house is.

so while you may get more “bang for the buck” on those larger houses..you’ll still pay more.

how much house do you really need anyway? people here in temecula seem to think they can’t be happy unless they have 4000 sq ft, a 4 car garage..to hold all their toys and their hummer… i grew up in a 4 bedroom hosue that was just under 2000 sq ft and it was FINE. 20 years ago, familes if 5-6 people would live in a 3 bedroom 1200-1500sq ft house….

you have to heat, cool, maintain, etc that HUGE house. not worth it to me unless you absolutely gotta have a room for EVERY kid, and a ROOM for your computer, and a ROOM for a guest who stays over once every 6 months, and ROOM for your workout stuff, and an entire EXTRA 3rd or 4th bay garage to store all your extra goodies from costco..

anyway..i stopped at charleson and aberdeen and it looks like they are advertising the 2300 sq ft home – smallest aberdeen home – for $450k. with about $40k in incetives. so they rip you off on flooring… and closing costs..and you have spent $450k on a 2300 sq ft house.

you can pick up a 2000 sq ft home in harveston for $400k if you negotiate well. mabye less if you watch for deals. if you find one that has been fixed up alrady, the previosu owner will ahve done all the landscaping, flooring upgrades, and window coverings.

i walked into a hosue that has $10,000 worth of shutters, and $20,000 wroth of flooring, and a $20,000 backyard…

you have to remember if you buy new – you’ll be adding all those little extras..and if you aren’t handy dandy..you’ll be paying someone to do your backyard (unless you want to have a sandbox out back) , you’ll need window coverings..nice shutters can run 5-10k for a normal sized house…. it adds up.

as an aside..i saw a HUGE house in french valley…driveway have a new MItsubishi EVO, some other sports car, garage was a 4 bay job, there were 3-4 quads and a motorcycle in the garage…… and the house had NOT ONE SINGLE BLIND on the whole thign.. idiot… bought toys..and has no money..not even for the cheapy paper blinds… that’s french valley… no thanks.

i say if you are going to buy in tem – harveston is a nice area. if you like what you get and can get a good deal..whenever that might be… maybe now, maybe ayear or two from now..but harveston is a cute very nice family oriented area. we have been there for a year and like it a lot.

[23109VC]

couple of comments –

that house in foreclosure on Pasadena – I believe that is a LAKEFRONT house. I personally would NOT pay a premium b/c it’s on the lake…but most of the homes ON the lake..are priced a good 100k above the others that are not. if you have been to harveston..it has a large manmade lake/pond/whatever yuo want to call it.. i think it’s roughly .25 mile around… maybe a bit more…. it’s long and narrow..and is lined on both banks by houses… those houses sold for a premium…and right now there are 3-4 of them on the market..that one on padadena went into foreclosure. the problem is that the owners of these units WANT a premium for the lakefront address..but the property itself is basicallya botu 2000 sq ft…and it’s hard to justify a 500-600k price tag for soemthign that size…lakefront or not…

you could buy that same pasadena house OFF the lake…one street away for that 400-450k range. some of the cottages like these are stripped with NO upgrades, others ar eloaded up to the hilt with granite, travertine, cabinets, carpet…

one downside of cottages is that they have VERY small lots…almost NO yard..and they are VERY close together. given the layout you really have no privacy in your yard. one thing i dislike about a lot of these neighborhoods in harveston is the lack of any private yards. the houses back up on one another so that you go itno your backyard to relax/bbq/enjoy some peace and quiet..and you are SURROUNDED by two stories..wtih countless windows…you get that feeling of being watched. now I dont’ do any nude sunbathing…so it’s not REAQLLY much of an issue..but it is nice to feel like your backyard is sort of private….

there are a few areas in haerveston where you can not back up on rear neighbors, and NOT back up on a street – but not many of them.

overall – Harveston is a very nice community. it is well kept. just last night to help the kids falls asleep my wife and i drove through the french valley areas…we drove through the communites JUST north of latour and the other DR horton one..and the Lennas Spencers Crossing. we were suprised at how run down the neighborhoods looked. there wer a lot of brown lawn homes…and a lot of what I would consieer JUNK cars in driveways. lots of houses with what looked like service trucks – one guy actualy had a large giant car carrier..those thigns that they use to transport cars..parked on his cul de sac… you don’t see that crap in harveston. nor do you see it in many o the other more upscale areas of tem or murr – if you want to call them “upscale”.

overall – harveston is a nice place. i kind of think the lennar properties – one is prescott – is too far from the lake. you get to pay all the harveston HOAs and you’ll be too far to utilize them w/out driving in the car, which will make it that much more of a pITA to enjoy it. from my house, i can walk to the lake or parks. it makes a difference. i’m sure i’d go there less if i had to load up 3 kids into carseats for a quick walk at the lake..when you can just put them in a stroller and walk over, it’s a lot mroe convenient.

$ per square foot – here is q uestion. when you compare the price of a 2700-3000 sq ft home and come up with a price per square foot…vs comparing a 1900-2100 sq ft house – it’s not really fair to compare the price. a good part of what you are apying for is really teh lot. so if the lots are similar in size, and similar in cost…the hosue may be larger..but to just say a 3000 sq ft house is 175/sq ft…but a 2000 one is 200/sq ft.. you can’t really compare a 2000 sq ft home to a 3000 sq ft home in te4rms of makign an apples to apples comparison of price per sq ft.

you’d need to compare that 2000 sq ft house to other homes of roughly the same size. as you go bigger, i tend to find that you will get lower prices per square foot…since you are spreading the cost of the land across more square feet…. make sense? it’s almost like you get a bit of a break on price per sq ft if you buid a larger house on a lot instead of the smaller house.. since you still have the cost of the land in there.. regardless of how big the house is.

so while you may get more “bang for the buck” on those larger houses..you’ll still pay more.

how much house do you really need anyway? people here in temecula seem to think they can’t be happy unless they have 4000 sq ft, a 4 car garage..to hold all their toys and their hummer… i grew up in a 4 bedroom hosue that was just under 2000 sq ft and it was FINE. 20 years ago, familes if 5-6 people would live in a 3 bedroom 1200-1500sq ft house….

you have to heat, cool, maintain, etc that HUGE house. not worth it to me unless you absolutely gotta have a room for EVERY kid, and a ROOM for your computer, and a ROOM for a guest who stays over once every 6 months, and ROOM for your workout stuff, and an entire EXTRA 3rd or 4th bay garage to store all your extra goodies from costco..

anyway..i stopped at charleson and aberdeen and it looks like they are advertising the 2300 sq ft home – smallest aberdeen home – for $450k. with about $40k in incetives. so they rip you off on flooring… and closing costs..and you have spent $450k on a 2300 sq ft house.

you can pick up a 2000 sq ft home in harveston for $400k if you negotiate well. mabye less if you watch for deals. if you find one that has been fixed up alrady, the previosu owner will ahve done all the landscaping, flooring upgrades, and window coverings.

i walked into a hosue that has $10,000 worth of shutters, and $20,000 wroth of flooring, and a $20,000 backyard…

you have to remember if you buy new – you’ll be adding all those little extras..and if you aren’t handy dandy..you’ll be paying someone to do your backyard (unless you want to have a sandbox out back) , you’ll need window coverings..nice shutters can run 5-10k for a normal sized house…. it adds up.

as an aside..i saw a HUGE house in french valley…driveway have a new MItsubishi EVO, some other sports car, garage was a 4 bay job, there were 3-4 quads and a motorcycle in the garage…… and the house had NOT ONE SINGLE BLIND on the whole thign.. idiot… bought toys..and has no money..not even for the cheapy paper blinds… that’s french valley… no thanks.

i say if you are going to buy in tem – harveston is a nice area. if you like what you get and can get a good deal..whenever that might be… maybe now, maybe ayear or two from now..but harveston is a cute very nice family oriented area. we have been there for a year and like it a lot.

[23109VC]

no i’m not joking….

ok – the subprime people who CAN’T qualify for a loan – unless they lie about income/debts etc will be out of luck period.

But the people who CAN get loans, who see thier 500k investment suddenly worth $200k….are now $300k in the hole..on something worth $200k…

if they find a $350k house that “used” to be $800k+ and is their “dream” home…and they can qualify for $350k… what would stop that person from buying the 350k home…lying about the prior one being “rented” and lie about the “rent” to GET IN the new home – then to just walk away from the $300k LOSS??

I have heard of people doing this in the last bust. if people are willing to fudge on loan apps, buy 8 houses on zero income – do you really think that SOME people won’t perpetrate another form of fraud to unload their bad decision and simultaneously “upgrade” to a better house?

i know one person who bought house #2 while owning house #1 hosue #1 was NOT rented, but he lied and said it was. he had EXCELLENT credit, a HIGH income…but was living in house #1 while he was trying to close a deal on house #2. he actually had the cash to float both until he WAS able to rent #1…and ultimately it all worked out. he now has TWO houses…one is rented..but at the time of hte loan app..there was fraud going on. and he was NOT s subprime person.

who’s to say that when the $hit hits the fan – you won’t have these same peple doing the same thing, only not even bothering to rent out the old one..they get thehouse they want…and then they just let the old one go…

i think the 1900-2200 sq ft stuff in Harveston will be at the 300a-325k point.

the prescott homes are a bit larger – but the location within harveston sucks. the meritage homes – the small ones are too small. they are sub 2000 sq ft, they feel even smaller, and they are alrady at the 400k point. i personally think these will also fall down to the low 300s.

the larger 2500+ sq ft homes are not going to fall as low as 300k flat. maybe 400?

last time i checked, the Larger meritage homes were not in the low 400s..they were in the upper 400s to low 500s. have they come down since i last looked? they are larger homes…closer to 3000 sq ft on average…only downside is once again they are not walking distance to the lake and they are very close to date street which means you will get road noise in your backyard. Date st will eventually connect to the freeway – and will be very busy.

i just don’t see prices tanking as bad as the average piggington person. i think they will drop..but i think the drops will be smaller. the builders are making some big drops…but the only ones i’ve seen come down substantially are the ones that either WAY overpriced, or in areas that are less desirable. like the DR horton ones. bad area within tem/murr. i would not want to live in that area. it’s not THAT far from harveston, but far enough. id’ rather be in temecula than murrieta anyway.

i haven’t seen anything in harveston that was under 400k. i saw one short sale advertised at 399k…but no idea if that is a legit deal or a low asking price to stimulate offers..who knows if the bank will even tak eit..i’ve seen cottages OFF the lak in the low 400s. most other ones in the 1900-2200 sq ft range are mid 400s to high 400s.

the larger homes…the ones that are 2400-2500+ are 500k+ still. i don’t see any of those homes slashing prices 100k.

[23109VC]

no i’m not joking….

ok – the subprime people who CAN’T qualify for a loan – unless they lie about income/debts etc will be out of luck period.

But the people who CAN get loans, who see thier 500k investment suddenly worth $200k….are now $300k in the hole..on something worth $200k…

if they find a $350k house that “used” to be $800k+ and is their “dream” home…and they can qualify for $350k… what would stop that person from buying the 350k home…lying about the prior one being “rented” and lie about the “rent” to GET IN the new home – then to just walk away from the $300k LOSS??

I have heard of people doing this in the last bust. if people are willing to fudge on loan apps, buy 8 houses on zero income – do you really think that SOME people won’t perpetrate another form of fraud to unload their bad decision and simultaneously “upgrade” to a better house?

i know one person who bought house #2 while owning house #1 hosue #1 was NOT rented, but he lied and said it was. he had EXCELLENT credit, a HIGH income…but was living in house #1 while he was trying to close a deal on house #2. he actually had the cash to float both until he WAS able to rent #1…and ultimately it all worked out. he now has TWO houses…one is rented..but at the time of hte loan app..there was fraud going on. and he was NOT s subprime person.

who’s to say that when the $hit hits the fan – you won’t have these same peple doing the same thing, only not even bothering to rent out the old one..they get thehouse they want…and then they just let the old one go…

i think the 1900-2200 sq ft stuff in Harveston will be at the 300a-325k point.

the prescott homes are a bit larger – but the location within harveston sucks. the meritage homes – the small ones are too small. they are sub 2000 sq ft, they feel even smaller, and they are alrady at the 400k point. i personally think these will also fall down to the low 300s.

the larger 2500+ sq ft homes are not going to fall as low as 300k flat. maybe 400?

last time i checked, the Larger meritage homes were not in the low 400s..they were in the upper 400s to low 500s. have they come down since i last looked? they are larger homes…closer to 3000 sq ft on average…only downside is once again they are not walking distance to the lake and they are very close to date street which means you will get road noise in your backyard. Date st will eventually connect to the freeway – and will be very busy.

i just don’t see prices tanking as bad as the average piggington person. i think they will drop..but i think the drops will be smaller. the builders are making some big drops…but the only ones i’ve seen come down substantially are the ones that either WAY overpriced, or in areas that are less desirable. like the DR horton ones. bad area within tem/murr. i would not want to live in that area. it’s not THAT far from harveston, but far enough. id’ rather be in temecula than murrieta anyway.

i haven’t seen anything in harveston that was under 400k. i saw one short sale advertised at 399k…but no idea if that is a legit deal or a low asking price to stimulate offers..who knows if the bank will even tak eit..i’ve seen cottages OFF the lak in the low 400s. most other ones in the 1900-2200 sq ft range are mid 400s to high 400s.

the larger homes…the ones that are 2400-2500+ are 500k+ still. i don’t see any of those homes slashing prices 100k.

[23109VC]

new guy –

i rent/live in harveston. My wife and I really like it. fo rour needs it is perfect. I work 5 min away – so the commute is great. 🙂 we hav small kids, so the parks, the lake, pool/spa facilities are very nice. while some people here on piggington have scoffed at the lake and called it a “pond” – i personally like it a lot. it’s very peaceful, relaxing – and it’s a nice place to take an evening walk at with the kids. we’ve lived there almost a year, and we still take a walk around the lake at least once or twice a week. out of many of the neighborhoods in temecula – we like Harveston a LOT. it’s nto the most pricey or upscale area – but it’s very nice.

as to the DR horton properties discussed in this thread – one caveat I would say about that area – and i can’t say why…as the prices seem similar to harveston and other areas further south – when I have driven many of the neighborhoods that are in that area – right near french valley/winchester – in general the neighborhoods do not feel as nice. the yards tend to have a more neglected look to them. I see a lot of *this* type of house:

big giant lifted 4×4 in the driveway – garage door (3-4 car garage) is open and you can see 2 jetskis, 3 motorcycles, and a boat all jammed into the garage. There may be an RV on the side of the house. theer is some blond bimbo wife in the driveway with her fake tits washing the hummer….and their lawn is brown/dead and weeds are piling up all over the yard.

the house next door has 4 beater cars stacked up in teh driveway – along with the dead lawn/weeds.

it seems like you find more of the people who blew every cent on their toys – and let their house go down the drain – and you see the 3-4 families who all pile into onc ehouse to afford the payment.

i see MUCH MUCH less of any of that in harveston. now harveston does have a condo development and an apartmetn complex… but the housing areas in general are more well kept. the hoas maintain common areas, and peole who let their yard go will get fined and hounded by the association. some people hate HOAs like that – i lke them. i don’t want my neighbor to decide to let the yard go to crap while he spends every weekend drinking beer on his boat… i like my neighborhood to look nice.

as to pricing – i have noticed some of the newer areas being priced a bit lower. prescott is one area – but it’s outside of the main harveston area. i drove through it and the houses are even more crammed in that the original harveston area – and you are NOT walking distance to any of the amenities . i personally did not like prescott…. there are a couple areas being build on the west end by meritage? one was cheaper/smaller…i dind’t caer for them. they were 1600-2000 sq ft homes, but they are two stories and they had that cramped feel. to me, 1600sq ft in a two story feels small…the footprint on the ground is tiny and you feel it. the family room felt claustrophobic.

the other property meritage is selling was larger – but more $$. i want to say mid to high 400s. closer to 500s. all fo them were two stories – which I hate.

if you want aone story – you’re in trouble. 90% of what they have built in tem/murr is a two story. in harveston – there are probably like 50 one stories out of about 500 homes.. seriously… hard to find.

overall – harveston is a nice spot. if you commute to SD – then you might be better seved to look further south..but if you live/work locally – harveston is a great area. to me, if you have af amily/kids – harveston is a nice place to live.

where will pricing on this stuff go? hard to say. i personally don’t thnk temecula is going to go down the drain liek the other piggington peple here think. i think we have mor eprice drops in store…but i think it will go down slower…over time…so that the actual drops don’t look that big…but if you look at it over time, and take into account inflation, it will actually be larger than you see. i’m not a RE pro..so don’t take my word for it, that’s just what i think based on all the info i’ve absorbed.

i see prices dropping another 5-10%/year…maybe for 2-3 yers…then either going flat or going back up.

figure historically, prices should go up 3-5% /year max. the bubble blew that away… and stuff will drop down until it finally comes back in line with that.

so if a $500k house should have been selling for $250k in 2002…and you factor in another 3-5%/year….from 2002 to 2007, you wind up with these houses in the low 300s.

that’s what i think. so all these homes taht are listing for 450-500…expect them to bottom out at 300-325…

if all of harveston fell to 200k…llike the doom and gloomers say – you will see people walk away from their homes in MASS and we will go into a depression. there was so much growth in temecula since the boom..there are NOT many people who can just say “oh i’m 200k upside down, i’ll just ride it out”. even the smart people will do the numbers and realize it makes sense to just bail on the mortrgage. and go into foreclosure to avoid a 200k loss.

if the drop is 50-100k…and prices are only dropping small amoutns year over year…they can reationalize sitting tight.

if someone bought in 2004 for $500k and in two years the house is wroth $200k…they will walk. what idiot would stay and pay? i’ll tell you what they will do – they will find their dream hosue..that used to be 800k that is now only 350k…and they will buy it…they’ll lie through their teeth on loan apps to say the existing house is rented..at enogh to cover the mortgage..and the second they clsoe on th new house they will let the old one go into foreclosure..and not care about their credit as they figure they bougth their dream house…

if stuff falls that badly – what will stop thep eople who had no problem taking our ARMS/neg ams…from doing the same toxic/loan fraud crap all over again to “upgrade” to their new dream house.. ???

but i saw if you can get that house you like in harveston in the range of 300-325 you are safe. pay 450-500 and you will be upside down in a year or two

[23109VC]

new guy –

i rent/live in harveston. My wife and I really like it. fo rour needs it is perfect. I work 5 min away – so the commute is great. 🙂 we hav small kids, so the parks, the lake, pool/spa facilities are very nice. while some people here on piggington have scoffed at the lake and called it a “pond” – i personally like it a lot. it’s very peaceful, relaxing – and it’s a nice place to take an evening walk at with the kids. we’ve lived there almost a year, and we still take a walk around the lake at least once or twice a week. out of many of the neighborhoods in temecula – we like Harveston a LOT. it’s nto the most pricey or upscale area – but it’s very nice.

as to the DR horton properties discussed in this thread – one caveat I would say about that area – and i can’t say why…as the prices seem similar to harveston and other areas further south – when I have driven many of the neighborhoods that are in that area – right near french valley/winchester – in general the neighborhoods do not feel as nice. the yards tend to have a more neglected look to them. I see a lot of *this* type of house:

big giant lifted 4×4 in the driveway – garage door (3-4 car garage) is open and you can see 2 jetskis, 3 motorcycles, and a boat all jammed into the garage. There may be an RV on the side of the house. theer is some blond bimbo wife in the driveway with her fake tits washing the hummer….and their lawn is brown/dead and weeds are piling up all over the yard.

the house next door has 4 beater cars stacked up in teh driveway – along with the dead lawn/weeds.

it seems like you find more of the people who blew every cent on their toys – and let their house go down the drain – and you see the 3-4 families who all pile into onc ehouse to afford the payment.

i see MUCH MUCH less of any of that in harveston. now harveston does have a condo development and an apartmetn complex… but the housing areas in general are more well kept. the hoas maintain common areas, and peole who let their yard go will get fined and hounded by the association. some people hate HOAs like that – i lke them. i don’t want my neighbor to decide to let the yard go to crap while he spends every weekend drinking beer on his boat… i like my neighborhood to look nice.

as to pricing – i have noticed some of the newer areas being priced a bit lower. prescott is one area – but it’s outside of the main harveston area. i drove through it and the houses are even more crammed in that the original harveston area – and you are NOT walking distance to any of the amenities . i personally did not like prescott…. there are a couple areas being build on the west end by meritage? one was cheaper/smaller…i dind’t caer for them. they were 1600-2000 sq ft homes, but they are two stories and they had that cramped feel. to me, 1600sq ft in a two story feels small…the footprint on the ground is tiny and you feel it. the family room felt claustrophobic.

the other property meritage is selling was larger – but more $$. i want to say mid to high 400s. closer to 500s. all fo them were two stories – which I hate.

if you want aone story – you’re in trouble. 90% of what they have built in tem/murr is a two story. in harveston – there are probably like 50 one stories out of about 500 homes.. seriously… hard to find.

overall – harveston is a nice spot. if you commute to SD – then you might be better seved to look further south..but if you live/work locally – harveston is a great area. to me, if you have af amily/kids – harveston is a nice place to live.

where will pricing on this stuff go? hard to say. i personally don’t thnk temecula is going to go down the drain liek the other piggington peple here think. i think we have mor eprice drops in store…but i think it will go down slower…over time…so that the actual drops don’t look that big…but if you look at it over time, and take into account inflation, it will actually be larger than you see. i’m not a RE pro..so don’t take my word for it, that’s just what i think based on all the info i’ve absorbed.

i see prices dropping another 5-10%/year…maybe for 2-3 yers…then either going flat or going back up.

figure historically, prices should go up 3-5% /year max. the bubble blew that away… and stuff will drop down until it finally comes back in line with that.

so if a $500k house should have been selling for $250k in 2002…and you factor in another 3-5%/year….from 2002 to 2007, you wind up with these houses in the low 300s.

that’s what i think. so all these homes taht are listing for 450-500…expect them to bottom out at 300-325…

if all of harveston fell to 200k…llike the doom and gloomers say – you will see people walk away from their homes in MASS and we will go into a depression. there was so much growth in temecula since the boom..there are NOT many people who can just say “oh i’m 200k upside down, i’ll just ride it out”. even the smart people will do the numbers and realize it makes sense to just bail on the mortrgage. and go into foreclosure to avoid a 200k loss.

if the drop is 50-100k…and prices are only dropping small amoutns year over year…they can reationalize sitting tight.

if someone bought in 2004 for $500k and in two years the house is wroth $200k…they will walk. what idiot would stay and pay? i’ll tell you what they will do – they will find their dream hosue..that used to be 800k that is now only 350k…and they will buy it…they’ll lie through their teeth on loan apps to say the existing house is rented..at enogh to cover the mortgage..and the second they clsoe on th new house they will let the old one go into foreclosure..and not care about their credit as they figure they bougth their dream house…

if stuff falls that badly – what will stop thep eople who had no problem taking our ARMS/neg ams…from doing the same toxic/loan fraud crap all over again to “upgrade” to their new dream house.. ???

but i saw if you can get that house you like in harveston in the range of 300-325 you are safe. pay 450-500 and you will be upside down in a year or two

[23109VC]

geez. 2900 sq ft for $389k…

that’s cheap for temecula area..and it’s upgraded as opposed to stripped? i’ll have to look at the area and see how it is. the only negative is that the whole french valley/winchester area is getting..in my opinion, to close to hemet/menifee/etc and you are too far from the freeway and other amenities in tem. winchester is full of traffic…

i mean, i live in harveston..and that’s not much further south than this DR place…but i’m right off the freeway, almost walking distance to costo…maybe a 5 min drive…same to the mall… when you are up in french valley…you are now 15 min from all this stuff..and if it’s traffic time, it could be 20-30…. not a huge difference…but that time adds up…

i’ve also noticed in general..a lot fot he winchester/french valey neighborhoods just look crappier than many of the nicer parts of temecula. they lawns are dead, th cars in the driveway look like crap – you get the feel that it’s the peple who couldn’t afford to buy…or mutliple families chpping in to buy..and the house was neglected… not every house..but the streets as a whole didn’t look well cared for.

harveston..with HOAs… seems to do a good job of keeping on top of that. i find the whole community tends to look nicely kept. many areas in south temecula are nice..and yeah, there are lots ofareas here and there that are trashy looking..

but overall, i’ve never been a big fan of that winchester area. thereas a reason why it’s cheaper…

but that price is darn low. for tha tmuch of a house… a year ago that would have been 500+

of course… if the house is 389k…and it’s almost 3000s q ft..by the time you add flooring upgrades, shutters, backyard landscaping, the ceiling fans they probaby dont’ include… and now you have speent $450k…

[23109VC]

geez. 2900 sq ft for $389k…

that’s cheap for temecula area..and it’s upgraded as opposed to stripped? i’ll have to look at the area and see how it is. the only negative is that the whole french valley/winchester area is getting..in my opinion, to close to hemet/menifee/etc and you are too far from the freeway and other amenities in tem. winchester is full of traffic…

i mean, i live in harveston..and that’s not much further south than this DR place…but i’m right off the freeway, almost walking distance to costo…maybe a 5 min drive…same to the mall… when you are up in french valley…you are now 15 min from all this stuff..and if it’s traffic time, it could be 20-30…. not a huge difference…but that time adds up…

i’ve also noticed in general..a lot fot he winchester/french valey neighborhoods just look crappier than many of the nicer parts of temecula. they lawns are dead, th cars in the driveway look like crap – you get the feel that it’s the peple who couldn’t afford to buy…or mutliple families chpping in to buy..and the house was neglected… not every house..but the streets as a whole didn’t look well cared for.

harveston..with HOAs… seems to do a good job of keeping on top of that. i find the whole community tends to look nicely kept. many areas in south temecula are nice..and yeah, there are lots ofareas here and there that are trashy looking..

but overall, i’ve never been a big fan of that winchester area. thereas a reason why it’s cheaper…

but that price is darn low. for tha tmuch of a house… a year ago that would have been 500+

of course… if the house is 389k…and it’s almost 3000s q ft..by the time you add flooring upgrades, shutters, backyard landscaping, the ceiling fans they probaby dont’ include… and now you have speent $450k…

[23109VC]

for those of you who looked at these DR horton properties what do you think of them?

some of the lots will back up on clinton keith..no thanks. major noice/congestion.

[23109VC]

for those of you who looked at these DR horton properties what do you think of them?

some of the lots will back up on clinton keith..no thanks. major noice/congestion.

[23109VC]

I can address the commute issue..and there is NO indecisiveness on my part with respect to this issue.

I have lived 10 minutes from work, and lived 1.25 hours from work…. for 6 months I had a 1.25-1.5 hour commute EACH way. I transferred jobs, and was selling my house..and had to commute until the house sold… I will NEVER move and take on a longer commute if I can avoid it. I had to do it for a temporary work situation….but to move THAT far from work…and willingly take on a 2-3 hour “chunk” of my life being wasted every day…for a larger house is just stupid. I now once again live 10 min from home. I can go home at lunch to see my wife and kids. I get home before it’s dark outside and can see the kids, go for walks, and not be stuck in traffic.

life is short. wasting it behind the wheel in traffic…sucks.

now if I could only be so decisive about this housing thing… 🙂

I do need to learn more about RE. I never professed to know it all…in fact…I know very little. and have no problem admitting it. I have bought/sold ONE house. I lived in it…I’ve never owned an investment property. I’m a smart and educated guy, but never was much of a dollars/cents person. I came to piggington to learn more and educate myself. heck…what i read here is what got me to NOT buy when I first moved..and rent. which already saved me from losing a LOT of money. the house i now rent would have sold for close to $500k in 2005….now they are probably listing at more like $400k….with more drops in store i’m sure.

i am only 34. i have never lived through any of the other RE downcycles. my parents bought in the late 70s and never moved. they do recall pricing dropped in the late 80s…but b/c they had already built so much equity…whatever drop their was – was only paper losses to them. so i never grew up with stories of “when we were your age we bought this house then lost it all…” type of stuff. i have heard those stories however from friends/coworkers who are older and bought right before the last downturn.

makes you nervous. makes you thinkg that if in th elate 80s..prices in fact fell THAT much… why wouldn’t they do it now.

but there are so many variables at play…and i know so little about them…i jsut hear X from one person, Y rom another, and Z from the enxt person. and X, Y, and Z are all educatd sources.

prices ahve fallen a lot here. i can certainly say that I have noticed more houses for sale, and many o them you can tell are just sitting for sale..and sitting. the nouse across teh street was listed at $470k. then another one a few houses down listed at like $450 or so..then they dropped their price to $399k…. even at $399k it’s just sitting there. you would think someone would SNAP it up…but no one is. and it’s not trashed or anything..it’s one of the normal “granite” “upgraded cabinets”, upgraded flooring, etc etc.. houses up here. it’s VERY nice inside. brand new…priced to sell….but there it sits…still for sale… guess it’s not priced to sell after all….

[23109VC]

I can address the commute issue..and there is NO indecisiveness on my part with respect to this issue.

I have lived 10 minutes from work, and lived 1.25 hours from work…. for 6 months I had a 1.25-1.5 hour commute EACH way. I transferred jobs, and was selling my house..and had to commute until the house sold… I will NEVER move and take on a longer commute if I can avoid it. I had to do it for a temporary work situation….but to move THAT far from work…and willingly take on a 2-3 hour “chunk” of my life being wasted every day…for a larger house is just stupid. I now once again live 10 min from home. I can go home at lunch to see my wife and kids. I get home before it’s dark outside and can see the kids, go for walks, and not be stuck in traffic.

life is short. wasting it behind the wheel in traffic…sucks.

now if I could only be so decisive about this housing thing… 🙂

I do need to learn more about RE. I never professed to know it all…in fact…I know very little. and have no problem admitting it. I have bought/sold ONE house. I lived in it…I’ve never owned an investment property. I’m a smart and educated guy, but never was much of a dollars/cents person. I came to piggington to learn more and educate myself. heck…what i read here is what got me to NOT buy when I first moved..and rent. which already saved me from losing a LOT of money. the house i now rent would have sold for close to $500k in 2005….now they are probably listing at more like $400k….with more drops in store i’m sure.

i am only 34. i have never lived through any of the other RE downcycles. my parents bought in the late 70s and never moved. they do recall pricing dropped in the late 80s…but b/c they had already built so much equity…whatever drop their was – was only paper losses to them. so i never grew up with stories of “when we were your age we bought this house then lost it all…” type of stuff. i have heard those stories however from friends/coworkers who are older and bought right before the last downturn.

makes you nervous. makes you thinkg that if in th elate 80s..prices in fact fell THAT much… why wouldn’t they do it now.

but there are so many variables at play…and i know so little about them…i jsut hear X from one person, Y rom another, and Z from the enxt person. and X, Y, and Z are all educatd sources.

prices ahve fallen a lot here. i can certainly say that I have noticed more houses for sale, and many o them you can tell are just sitting for sale..and sitting. the nouse across teh street was listed at $470k. then another one a few houses down listed at like $450 or so..then they dropped their price to $399k…. even at $399k it’s just sitting there. you would think someone would SNAP it up…but no one is. and it’s not trashed or anything..it’s one of the normal “granite” “upgraded cabinets”, upgraded flooring, etc etc.. houses up here. it’s VERY nice inside. brand new…priced to sell….but there it sits…still for sale… guess it’s not priced to sell after all….

[23109VC]

out of curiosity – these homes in Tem/Murr that are selling at 400-500…

if these homes were in Carmel valley what would they cost?

or other areas of San diego?

i assume the average temecula person stillworks in SD (or OC) and they only came up here to Tem to get more bang for the buck. if prices fall enough, and gas prices increase enough – it really could make a difference between moving back to SD…

i wonder at what point that “equilibrium” would happen and you would see people leaving Tem?

i used to commute over an hour….before I sold my last home…and i was spending close to 500-600/month in fuel….and i had a reasonably economic car..not a hummer or anything like half of Temcula seems to drive.. 🙂

gas is much more expensive NOW than when I was commuting. i can easily see some people wh live in Winchester or Hemet who work in SD spending $1000/month in gas to get to work.

why not put that grand to a mortgage and move to SD once prices come down a bit.. at some point people are going to run those humbers and make the decision to relocate BACK to SD… or not??

[23109VC]

i was laughing to myself as I read the “comments” about my indecisiveness. 🙂 I can take a hint… 😉 I’ll stop my OCD posts about my dilemna.

as to the subject of THIS thread…. the outlying areas in Riverside are truly dumps. Hemet is a big fat NO WAY. drive though downtown Hemet ONCE and you’ll NEVER buy anywhere near that place. think crack heads, hookers, on every corner… the new houses are far enough away that naive buyers won’t see it…but go into OLD Hemet…and it’s not nice.

Some areas of Winchester are nice looking, but location wise you are IMHO too far up winchester road..such that if you want to get back down to SD, you will spend a good solid 10-15 min fighting traffic, or longer if it’s bad traffic – just to GET to the freeway.

given i live and work in Temecula/Murrieta – I could justify anythign in the area…but for resale purpses…i think you want to be more centrally located with better freeway access.

100k price drops are nice to see. i wonder how much lower it will go. i’m not trying to drudge up my own issue yet once again..but to use it as an example..mylandlord is a fairly savvy investor from OC….and he’s unloading it at a loss…. if he had any inkling of a market recovery..or thought he could list it on the open market and quickly sell…at even the sampe price plus a small realtor commision, he’d tell me to F off and sell on his own. the ONLY reason he is even offering it to me at theprice he did is b/c he thinks that his BEST scenario. if i say no, he will walk way with LESS cash. and he knows it…

so not only are the builders slashign prices..but the investors will either slash prices take their loss, and if they aren’t financially solvent enough to weather a loss like this, they will walk and we will continue to see rising foreclosures.

the poor guy who bought in 2004 or 2005 and wants to sell will have no way to compete with the builders and the investors who slash prices and the short sales… so they will either lose the home if they are priced out of their ARM or they will be forced to sit tight and ride out a bad market… i know people who did that in the late 80s…bought and then lost money and had to live in thehosue for about 10 years to “break even”..

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