Yes, the Fed matters a lot; nobody disagrees with that.

[gzz]

I want to be short some housing stocks too as a hedge against my RE portfolio.

It isn’t easy, because RE stocks are mostly at very low valuations.

My RE shorts, in order of size, are AVB, BXP, and SPG.

I don’t think any of them are overpriced. Just relatively expensive, and the best hedges I can think of.

That DZ is short RE stocks without owning any RE is nuts. He should buy DR Horton and Invitation Homes.

Again and again I look at a RE stock as a potential short, and come away thinking instead it is undervalued. SPG is in awful business for the long term, shopping malls, but is well run and attractively valued.

[The-Shoveler]

IMO Going from mortgages in the 2’s to mortgages in the 6’s is going to do some economic damage.

IMO I guess we will see if my theory that TPTB will not allow a recession longer than a few months is correct.

[Coronita]

[quote=The-Shoveler]IMO Going from mortgages in the 2’s to mortgages in the 6’s is going to do some economic damage.

IMO I guess we will see if my theory that TPTB will not allow a recession longer than a few months is correct.[/quote]

I would agree with that. I think we’ll see a slowdown for sure.

Can’t wait… More rentals and cashflow possible…I’m hoping that there will be enough correction that if my kid goes to an out of state college, housing wherever my kid goes to will be much cheaper than now.

3% cash out refinance now looks pretty sweet lol…

That said, I don’t think it fixes the supply chain issues.

I think credit card companies are going to have a field day.

[Hobie]

[quote=Coronita]I think credit card companies are going to have a field day.[/quote]

Followed by a Government bailout. Anyone know the average credit card balances over the last year? Lots of people must be floating more credit card debt as they don’t have the cash flow to keep up with current cost increases.

[an]

[quote=Hobie][quote=Coronita]I think credit card companies are going to have a field day.[/quote]

Followed by a Government bailout. Anyone know the average credit card balances over the last year? Lots of people must be floating more credit card debt as they don’t have the cash flow to keep up with current cost increases.[/quote]
If they’re successful with forgiving student loan debt, I don’t see why they wouldn’t go after credit card debt next.

Then there’s this: https://calmatters.org/newsletters/whatmatters/2022/06/california-housing-down-payment/

[an]

[quote=Coronita]Can’t wait… More rentals and cashflow possible…I’m hoping that there will be enough correction that if my kid goes to an out of state college, housing wherever my kid goes to will be much cheaper than now.[/quote]
You and me both. Especially in CA with Prop 13. Hopefully we’ll see some lower price to offset the higher rates. However, I wouldn’t count out wage inflation either.

[quote=Coronita]3% cash out refinance now looks pretty sweet lol…[/quote]I was literally one of the last few out the door. I don’t think we’ll have that opportunity again anytime soon.

[sdrealtor]

I remember growing up and learning about mortgages and interest rates than finding out what a low rate my parents had from the purchase in the 60s. It was a game changer for them allowing them to pay for college for four kids and live in a house very inexpensively for three decades. That is the blessing so many of us have received

[spdrun]

Wasn’t the prevailing rate in the 1960s still 4-5%, which is higher than people were paying recently?

[flyer]

It is interesting to look back on the parents and grandparents real estate and other investing days as points of reference. I think a lot of us are ready for any opportunities this potential downturn might offer. Pretty much everyone we know feels the same.

Doubt if this cycle will offer the same phenomenal opportunities as the last time around, and, hopefully, for the sake of the country, and the world, things won’t become that severe. There’s always a downside to every upside, and you have to be careful what you wish for. Only time will tell how all of this will actually play out.

[scaredyclassic]

This may all be rearranging deck chairs on the titanic, as all civilation crumbles from environmental catastrophe. But there’ll be some nice rebounds on the way down, keep alert for dead planet bounces.

I don’t care if humans go extinct, I just want to make a buck as we die out

[flyer]

Agree that all things temporary, such as our lives on earth, may seem futile when you look at the big picture, and I have long ago embraced that fact.

Of course, as a society, doing our best to avoid environmental catastrophe and the extinction of humanity, should be of concern to all us now, and especially wrt future generations. I’m sure many of us are involved in those efforts, but, for the purposes of the discussions on this forum, I think it’s helpful to share information wrt real estate, since shelter is, and always has been, a big part of our temporary human experience.

[Coronita]

Time for me to move some money back in into the markets. I’ve been itching off the sideline a bit. Fire sale..

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=flyer]Agree that all things temporary, such as our lives on earth, may seem futile when you look at the big picture, and I have long ago embraced that fact.

Of course, as a society, doing our best to avoid environmental catastrophe and the extinction of humanity, should be of concern to all us now, and especially wrt future generations. I’m sure many of us are involved in those efforts, but, for the purposes of the discussions on this forum, I think it’s helpful to share information wrt real estate, since shelter is, and always has been, a big part of our temporary human experience.[/quote]

Agreed. On the dying slag heap of soon to be devastated, suffering humanity, I definitely would like to be toward the upper portion of the heap, in such a position that I can leverage my boot into the face of the less well off so I can grab a bit more of the last remaining resources and survive in slightly more comfort until the end of civilization, when that comes. I’m sure many of us on the board,, and hopefully our offspring, are similarly well positioned to profit off such face stomping in the future.

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=Coronita]Time for me to move some money back in into the markets. I’ve been itching off the sideline a bit. Fire sale..[/quote]

Wow braver than I LOL, hope it works but then again if say >10 years is your investment time frame then most likely the markets in general will be higher.

[Coronita]

[quote=The-Shoveler][quote=Coronita]Time for me to move some money back in into the markets. I’ve been itching off the sideline a bit. Fire sale..[/quote]

Wow braver than I LOL, hope it works but then again if say >10 years is your investment time frame then most likely the markets in general will be higher.[/quote]

Well, I was slightly over 50% out, and the remaining stuff in was mostly short term treasury, short term bonds, consumer staples, some banking, and 2 tech stocks.

I figure it’s better than many people who were more heavily invested. So…. Roll the dice, and slowly move stuff back in… Drip style investing….

I don’t need the money in short term.

[Author]

Posts