Will we see a selling panic in housing?

[The-Shoveler]

Well not quite “SD Realtor”

I think we will need a full on recession before we see 20-40% drop in the better area’s, but on the out skirts things could get ugly a lot faster.

[Tone]

“Wow 20-40%! That is truly insightful.”

I’m surprised at the sarcasm. You seem like a fairly upstanding dude. My mistake.

[Tone]

“Wow 20-40%! That is truly insightful.”

I’m surprised at the sarcasm. You seem like a fairly upstanding dude. My mistake.

[Pasadena Broker]

Why not?

What do you think set the prices for the homes? The great location of the property, your profound sales skill, or cause of its’ rustic charm? Realtor guys found the place for the buyer, we got you the financing because we kept a pulse on how the lenders wanted the loan packaged.

Alt-A is done. Most of us on the mortgage end are sitting on the sidelines hoping most of the lenders we work with are going to bring it back, but something tells me that they won’t.

20-40% decline, sure…It’ll take those type of decreases for income to meet price. Plus, you can ask whatever pie in the sky price for a property, but unless you find a buyer that can either buy it cash, or fully state their income, you’ll have buyers but no financing. The decline won’t happen overnight since most sellers and realtors are clueless. I tried telling some of my realtors that the credit market was crumbling apart and aside from the look of panic from the old timers, the newbies had a blank stare like I told them that aliens have landed on Capital Hill.

[Pasadena Broker]

Why not?

What do you think set the prices for the homes? The great location of the property, your profound sales skill, or cause of its’ rustic charm? Realtor guys found the place for the buyer, we got you the financing because we kept a pulse on how the lenders wanted the loan packaged.

Alt-A is done. Most of us on the mortgage end are sitting on the sidelines hoping most of the lenders we work with are going to bring it back, but something tells me that they won’t.

20-40% decline, sure…It’ll take those type of decreases for income to meet price. Plus, you can ask whatever pie in the sky price for a property, but unless you find a buyer that can either buy it cash, or fully state their income, you’ll have buyers but no financing. The decline won’t happen overnight since most sellers and realtors are clueless. I tried telling some of my realtors that the credit market was crumbling apart and aside from the look of panic from the old timers, the newbies had a blank stare like I told them that aliens have landed on Capital Hill.

[HereWeGo]

Location, location, location …

I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for a 20% loss in the area mentioned by SD Realtor. The “other CV” might take a serious hit, though.

[HereWeGo]

Location, location, location …

I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for a 20% loss in the area mentioned by SD Realtor. The “other CV” might take a serious hit, though.

[LA_Renter]

The recession risk is the real story here. The possibility of that happening, especially S. California, just shot up with the mortgage market crisis as it stands now. No one forecast this much of a downturn in housing even many bears. Somebody will do something, this is basically hitting crisis level. Something to take into consideration, if someone like me could see this coming over 2 years ago then I have a feeling the FED and Treasury had some conversations about this. I imagine they do have some type of strategy in place to deal with this, at least I like to think so, call me naive. I mean they can’t be that stupid…….Can they???

[LA_Renter]

The recession risk is the real story here. The possibility of that happening, especially S. California, just shot up with the mortgage market crisis as it stands now. No one forecast this much of a downturn in housing even many bears. Somebody will do something, this is basically hitting crisis level. Something to take into consideration, if someone like me could see this coming over 2 years ago then I have a feeling the FED and Treasury had some conversations about this. I imagine they do have some type of strategy in place to deal with this, at least I like to think so, call me naive. I mean they can’t be that stupid…….Can they???

[NotCranky]

“Don’t discount the powers of the Fed.”

HWG I think we you are exclusively referring to the central bank? What about other government intervention and also perhaps something a little stronger from the lenders,gse’s than loan modification and new products.

I don’t think anything will happen soon. When and if the sick RE market coincides with a struggling stock market and a dismal economy, something could happen. I wouldn’t be the first time. With the federal deficit,frozen RE market , and a sick stock market I think we will see the biggest recession in our life times.
We could have voluntary forbearance by the lenders and even perhaps a moratorium on foreclosures by the government.I was thinking a moratorium on resets might happen but the worst case scenario would not be upon us until after the big wave and subsequent foreclsoure activity has passed. Perhaps nationally we could be in such a desperate state at the turn of the next decade that some new legislation or seriously creative responses by the mortgage industry might come into play against deepening chaos.

Just food for thought.

[NotCranky]

“Don’t discount the powers of the Fed.”

HWG I think we you are exclusively referring to the central bank? What about other government intervention and also perhaps something a little stronger from the lenders,gse’s than loan modification and new products.

I don’t think anything will happen soon. When and if the sick RE market coincides with a struggling stock market and a dismal economy, something could happen. I wouldn’t be the first time. With the federal deficit,frozen RE market , and a sick stock market I think we will see the biggest recession in our life times.
We could have voluntary forbearance by the lenders and even perhaps a moratorium on foreclosures by the government.I was thinking a moratorium on resets might happen but the worst case scenario would not be upon us until after the big wave and subsequent foreclsoure activity has passed. Perhaps nationally we could be in such a desperate state at the turn of the next decade that some new legislation or seriously creative responses by the mortgage industry might come into play against deepening chaos.

Just food for thought.

[NotCranky]

Nor-La-Temcu-SD-GUY

C’mon Guy, It’s “be nice to Realtor day ” and also “especially be nice mortgage broker Day.”

Hell before this is over we don’t know who is going to need a little extra TLC.

[NotCranky]

Nor-La-Temcu-SD-GUY

C’mon Guy, It’s “be nice to Realtor day ” and also “especially be nice mortgage broker Day.”

Hell before this is over we don’t know who is going to need a little extra TLC.

[HereWeGo]

rustico-

It should be clear at this point that foreclosures will accelerate. Many homeowners struggle with payments, and banks are radically increasing the credit spreads (mortgage rates are going up as the 10 year yield falls.)

The Fed needs to think outside the box a bit. They should create a special rate for homeowners to refi, under the expectation that the banks that are currently in deep trouble due to buyback threats will willingly process the refis at a low markup. Perhaps this should be limited to primary residences, I’m not sure. Since such a move would clearly be inflationary, the Fed shoud bump up the FFR at the same time.

This would allow current holders of paper to be paid off (in some measure,) settling the credit markets, and it would greatly slow the foreclosure rate. Housing would still fall, but at a much slower pace. That may not be good for folks that read this board, but it would be good for the overwhelming majority of the country.

If the Fed just sits on its hands, the board members will be much remembered for their fiddling skills IMO.

[HereWeGo]

rustico-

It should be clear at this point that foreclosures will accelerate. Many homeowners struggle with payments, and banks are radically increasing the credit spreads (mortgage rates are going up as the 10 year yield falls.)

The Fed needs to think outside the box a bit. They should create a special rate for homeowners to refi, under the expectation that the banks that are currently in deep trouble due to buyback threats will willingly process the refis at a low markup. Perhaps this should be limited to primary residences, I’m not sure. Since such a move would clearly be inflationary, the Fed shoud bump up the FFR at the same time.

This would allow current holders of paper to be paid off (in some measure,) settling the credit markets, and it would greatly slow the foreclosure rate. Housing would still fall, but at a much slower pace. That may not be good for folks that read this board, but it would be good for the overwhelming majority of the country.

If the Fed just sits on its hands, the board members will be much remembered for their fiddling skills IMO.

[Author]

Posts