Whatever happened to Peak Oil?

[EconProf]

Remember Peak Oil? A few years ago we were all told that oil prices, then over $100, would soon double and then double again, as the world’s supplies became exhausted.
Then along came fracking. Good old capitalism harnessed technology to again stymie the doomsayers. Now the US will become an energy exporter to the rest of the world. In some previous years we imported about half of our oil. Soon we will produce more energy than Saudi Arabia. Once again the market system comes through.

[Coronita]

I think the lesson to learn is extreme viewpoints are hazardous to one’s economic health..

[The-Shoveler]

To be honest if it were not for the Saudi’s trying to kill the electric car and the US Oil independence.
Oil would still be near 100.00

But I was saying this from the day Oil first hit 100.00

“I don’t know how $100 Oil survives cars that get 50 Miles per gallon”

Heck the new F-150 gets close to 30 MPG.

[spdrun]

A slowdown abroad came.

The Saudis are dumping oil in the market (possibly at our behest to hurt the Russians, Persians, and IS??, possibly for economic reasons of their own).

This isn’t a healthy sign.

If we were smart and had some balls, we’d slap a 100% surtax on gasoline tomorrow and put the money in an alternative energy trust fund. Electrify and heavily automate all major freight rail lines. Get those long distance trucks off the road. Invest in medium-speed passenger rail. Invest in alternatives and nuclear energy to beef up the power grid. No more coal and natural gas power plants should be built. Encourage adoption of electric and H2 cars to create an economy of scale there. Rebuilt infrastructure.

We’ve been through a few energy crises, and we’ve always kicked the can down the road when prices fell. Now’s the time to do something vs going back to buying mastodon SUVs and commuting 60 miles each way.

Cheap oil should be viewed as an opportunity to prepare for the next rise in prices and prepare to end the use of oil for energy permanently, not a permanent thing.

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=spdrun]

We’ve been through a few energy crises, and we’ve always kicked the can down the road when prices fell. Now’s the time to do something vs going back to buying mastodon SUVs and commuting 60 miles each way.

[/quote]
This is exactly the Saudi’s plan LOL.

[spdrun]

The 40-50 mpg cars are good enough to be driven daily by fat Americans with bad knees 🙂 Question is: will smaller cars that get the high end of this MPG range (small Prius) and electric cars (with range and charging limits) survive $100 oil? Or $50 oil for that matter.

[outtamojo]

peak oil- ha! and I almost paid the premium price for a diesel/hybrid vehicle last year.

[spdrun]

Everyone should buy the most efficient vehicle that fits their needs — despite years of GOP indoctrination, the environment is still important.

[Anonymous]

There is no doubt that we are consuming fossil fuels at a rate orders of magnitude faster than the earth ever produced them.

The market can adjust to short-term supply and demand changes, but in the long-term we will run out.

Nobody really knows how far out long-term is. It could be a few decades, it could be a few centuries.

[The-Shoveler]

If you count the Methane hydrates it goes into the tens of thousands of years.

[FlyerInHi]

Let’s see… the people who predicted the peak oil are the same whacks who hoarded the incandescent light bulb. The same folks who in 2009 predicted skyrocketing interest rates.

I wouldn’t worry about the return of the SUV. Energy consciousness is now well anchored in the minds of a new generation.

I’m not predicting the death of the SUV, but remember that it’s the marginal growth in oil consumption that drives price. Young people don’t love cars like the older generations. There are disruptive technologies like Uber and car sharing services that will hold down the need for automobile ownerships.

Also talking about energy consumption, once the transition to LED is complete, we will cut our lighting costs by 3/4 and reduce the need for air conditioning. I see LED lights all over now — lamps posts, airports, homes etc….

Imagine replacing all those old plasma TVs with LED.

[spdrun]

Uber is a taxi dispatcher replacement, not a car replacement. Most people don’t want to “share” a car with others, because it would require removal of personal stuff from the car after every trip. All of the irritation of a taxi trip without even having someone drive the cab for you.

Remember that the tail end of the “back to the land” hippie generation was the primo market for SUVs. Attitudes change with age.

[FlyerInHi]

I think that there will be a way to share cars in high density housing developments. It’s done in Europe now.

I’m not predicting the death of the suburbs either, but I see more concentration around towncenters type developments.

Again, when marginal growth in consumption stops, prices stop rising.

[spdrun]

You’re assuming that most people (absent energy costs) want to live in high-density town center type of developments. 20 and 30 somethings might, academics who value a sense of community might, but the average Joe just wants cheap, low-density, junky boxes.

And if you read about it, recent gains in auto sales have been mostly fueled by pickup trucks and EthYooVeeth.

[FlyerInHi]

Also, people are adding solar to their homes and business.

The technologies are all out there to transition away from oil.

[Author]

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