SD you are dead on about August and September, they are historically bad months to be long the market. I covered the difference in my last newsletter between buying now vs in the fall, and the difference is dramatic. Again, these are general trends that just serve as a beginning spot for setups.
Several things need to fall into place for the fall rally to begin. We need strong bonds, which we currently have. We need to commercials to be heavily long. We also want sentiment to be overly bearish. There are other things, but those are the beginning. Currently we are setup for a drop that I think will begin next week, but could happen any day. Seasonally, the market has weakness through the end of the month beginning on the 15th trading day of the month in August. This rally is diverging in a few ways that are meaningful, foretelling of a drop IMO.
As far as RE goes, the 2008 was based on the 18 year cycle from high to low. 1990 was the high, so that projects to 2008 for the low. Robert Campbell has a timing model that I have made some small changes to that I am going to use when this timeframe comes due to dial in a bit better. His model is terriffic for timing RE,it generated a sell signal in Aug of 2005 for San Diego. He does not discuss cycles at all, that is my work.
Also, I will study this deeply when we get closer to see if there is something else I can find. Things are beginning to look very ugly for RE here in OC, last months numbers were very weak.
Why do all of your posts talk about things vaguely without any conclusions, just references to your newsletter.. Rich posts articles that have graphs and leave the reader with a conclusion.
Just one persons opinion, obviously other people enjoy your posts.
It’s because he charges for the newsletter, so he won’t discuss this for free. Makes sense to me. It wouldn’t be fair to me, a subscriber to his newsletter, if he gave away all the info on a forum.
Rich used to have a premium content site, and I subscribed to that. He didn’t make references to that part, to try to entice more members to pay, because he was not active much in the forums. He was low key in regard to getting more sign ups.
Chris, how can I get more info on Robert Campbell’s strategies?
Give me a specific about what is vague and I will try and clarify? I never intentionally post vague comments. I am about as straight forward a person as you are likely to ever meet.
PW – google timing the real estate market and it pulls up his stuff. He has a book that I bought which is cheap, and he has a newsletter that he sends out bi-monthly that updates the model he introduces in the book. I have met him and he is a very interesting guy. He is a UCLA grad and knows Leamer and Co very well. He argues with them all the time, because he is much more bearish at this point.
He is interested in trading which is how our connection got started.
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