jg – Absolutely no offense taken. I was trying to figure out whether you were referring to my factual statements citing the numbers and explanations published by the ISM (I wouldn’t consider that an example of puffery) or my previous tongue-in-cheek jest of quoting everyone so that we could feel superior (now that should be considered a puff piece).
I didn’t think I was overaccentuating the positive. Things are obviously slowing down. I like to interject facts now and then to provide some balance. I like to read the reports rather than regurgitate someone else’s take on them. The ISM report was consistent with the 2.2% revised GDP of last quarter. It was not a sign of further slowing beyond that … yet. Some people took the ISM number as indicating we are already over the cliff. I’m simply claiming that we are at the same edge of the cliff we thought we were when the GDP was revised to be ~2.2%.
Today’s news : “The Institute for Supply Management’s services index rose to 58.9 in November from 57.1 in October. The median forecast of Wall Street economists was for a decline to 56.0. Gauges of employment, prices paid and new orders also rose.”
So, we found out earlier this week that the Manufacturing activity (20% of the economy) is contracting at slightly less than a reading of 50, but for 80% of the economy, the services index is at 58.9.
Seems consistent with the ~2% growth we have seen previously. The brakes have been applied, however, the economy is not yet to the cliffs.
I’m sure there must be some doom and gloom within some components within the index that are down and that the reading was overly optimistic because of some technicalities.
Hope you are thirsty qcomer. In addition to the service sector report, jobs numbers came in high for November. Make sure it’s a 22 oz or larger beer. Or better yet, maybe the following
< a href="http://most-expensive.net/most-expensive-beer" > Expensive Beer
FSD, given the low wager involved and that it’s for fun, after all, I vote for deciding who won based on the first release (“advance”) of Q4 GDP, which comes out on Jan. 30th.
Ugly Philly manufacturing number, today. Tomorrow’s consumer spending should be interesting.
