We have hit bottom!

[rnen]

On my drive home last night I was listening to Roger Hedgecock and he said that housing sales were up 65% in Sept., mortgage rates are down and no new houses are being built so we have hit the bottom and the time to buy is now.

Whew,glad this is over and we are back on track!

Anyone else hear that sales were up 65% in Sept.?

I listen to Roger almost every day on the way home and while I do not agree with all of his opinions I think he is a reasonably intelligent guy. I was very surprised to hear him call bottom and tell people this is the time to buy based on 1 month of sales increase. Very irresponsible in my opinion.

Has anyone else heard that sales were up 65%? If so how did they arrive at the figure?

The main reason his statement pisses me off is that I am now going to have to convince my wife all over again that putting our downpayment into a 1 yr cd was the right thing to do. Thanks Roger.

[SD Realtor]

This is not an unexpected event but I personally do not construe this as a bottom. Again, secular markets are composed of many segments that can be micro rallies, and micro dumps. When you aggregate all of them together you notice a pattern depending on the direction of the secular market. For a depreciating market you will see lower highs and lower lows but there will be rallies to generate these.

Price drops, poor performance on the equity markets, relatively low interest rates (from a historical perspective) and a fundamental problem of there are ALOT of people with money still out there have indeed provided a pool of buyers willing to buy.

Contrary to opinion on this board the inventory levels are quite poor right now as well. I also just dumped money into a couple of 6 month CDs so I know your pain. I cannot tell you how “they” arrived at that figure but honestly it doesn’t matter to me.

Tonite I will pick a few zip codes and post some sales numbers for the month of September 08 compared to 07. I suspect we will indeed see increased sales numbers yet I do not feel it is near a bottom.

[SD Realtor]

This is not an unexpected event but I personally do not construe this as a bottom. Again, secular markets are composed of many segments that can be micro rallies, and micro dumps. When you aggregate all of them together you notice a pattern depending on the direction of the secular market. For a depreciating market you will see lower highs and lower lows but there will be rallies to generate these.

Price drops, poor performance on the equity markets, relatively low interest rates (from a historical perspective) and a fundamental problem of there are ALOT of people with money still out there have indeed provided a pool of buyers willing to buy.

Contrary to opinion on this board the inventory levels are quite poor right now as well. I also just dumped money into a couple of 6 month CDs so I know your pain. I cannot tell you how “they” arrived at that figure but honestly it doesn’t matter to me.

Tonite I will pick a few zip codes and post some sales numbers for the month of September 08 compared to 07. I suspect we will indeed see increased sales numbers yet I do not feel it is near a bottom.

[SD Realtor]

This is not an unexpected event but I personally do not construe this as a bottom. Again, secular markets are composed of many segments that can be micro rallies, and micro dumps. When you aggregate all of them together you notice a pattern depending on the direction of the secular market. For a depreciating market you will see lower highs and lower lows but there will be rallies to generate these.

Price drops, poor performance on the equity markets, relatively low interest rates (from a historical perspective) and a fundamental problem of there are ALOT of people with money still out there have indeed provided a pool of buyers willing to buy.

Contrary to opinion on this board the inventory levels are quite poor right now as well. I also just dumped money into a couple of 6 month CDs so I know your pain. I cannot tell you how “they” arrived at that figure but honestly it doesn’t matter to me.

Tonite I will pick a few zip codes and post some sales numbers for the month of September 08 compared to 07. I suspect we will indeed see increased sales numbers yet I do not feel it is near a bottom.

[SD Realtor]

This is not an unexpected event but I personally do not construe this as a bottom. Again, secular markets are composed of many segments that can be micro rallies, and micro dumps. When you aggregate all of them together you notice a pattern depending on the direction of the secular market. For a depreciating market you will see lower highs and lower lows but there will be rallies to generate these.

Price drops, poor performance on the equity markets, relatively low interest rates (from a historical perspective) and a fundamental problem of there are ALOT of people with money still out there have indeed provided a pool of buyers willing to buy.

Contrary to opinion on this board the inventory levels are quite poor right now as well. I also just dumped money into a couple of 6 month CDs so I know your pain. I cannot tell you how “they” arrived at that figure but honestly it doesn’t matter to me.

Tonite I will pick a few zip codes and post some sales numbers for the month of September 08 compared to 07. I suspect we will indeed see increased sales numbers yet I do not feel it is near a bottom.

[SD Realtor]

This is not an unexpected event but I personally do not construe this as a bottom. Again, secular markets are composed of many segments that can be micro rallies, and micro dumps. When you aggregate all of them together you notice a pattern depending on the direction of the secular market. For a depreciating market you will see lower highs and lower lows but there will be rallies to generate these.

Price drops, poor performance on the equity markets, relatively low interest rates (from a historical perspective) and a fundamental problem of there are ALOT of people with money still out there have indeed provided a pool of buyers willing to buy.

Contrary to opinion on this board the inventory levels are quite poor right now as well. I also just dumped money into a couple of 6 month CDs so I know your pain. I cannot tell you how “they” arrived at that figure but honestly it doesn’t matter to me.

Tonite I will pick a few zip codes and post some sales numbers for the month of September 08 compared to 07. I suspect we will indeed see increased sales numbers yet I do not feel it is near a bottom.

[sdduuuude]

More Info:

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/DrHousingBubble-HowILearnedToLoveSocal/~3/7IyqJhM0lCQ/

[sdduuuude]

More Info:

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/DrHousingBubble-HowILearnedToLoveSocal/~3/7IyqJhM0lCQ/

[sdduuuude]

More Info:

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/DrHousingBubble-HowILearnedToLoveSocal/~3/7IyqJhM0lCQ/

[sdduuuude]

More Info:

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/DrHousingBubble-HowILearnedToLoveSocal/~3/7IyqJhM0lCQ/

[sdduuuude]

More Info:

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/DrHousingBubble-HowILearnedToLoveSocal/~3/7IyqJhM0lCQ/

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

The number was based on sales as reported by DataQuick. Sales were so low in Sept 2007 that it was a fairly easy number to beat. Also, Sept 08 sales were higher than August ’08, so there was some relative strength in the number of sales. This was driven by lower priced homes and foreclosures.
We may have seen the bottom in sales, but remember it takes a couple years of sustained changes in sales to start impacting price. Remember, sales peaked in 2003 or so and prices didn’t start dropping noticeably until late 2005.

In the early-mid 1990’s slump sales bottomed somewhere around 1993, but prices didn’t pick up until 1996 or later in some areas.

So, even if Fall 2007 was the bottom in sales, there is plenty of must-sell and want to sell inventory in the pipeline that one doesn’t need to worry about missing the upswing for at least a year or two.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

The number was based on sales as reported by DataQuick. Sales were so low in Sept 2007 that it was a fairly easy number to beat. Also, Sept 08 sales were higher than August ’08, so there was some relative strength in the number of sales. This was driven by lower priced homes and foreclosures.
We may have seen the bottom in sales, but remember it takes a couple years of sustained changes in sales to start impacting price. Remember, sales peaked in 2003 or so and prices didn’t start dropping noticeably until late 2005.

In the early-mid 1990’s slump sales bottomed somewhere around 1993, but prices didn’t pick up until 1996 or later in some areas.

So, even if Fall 2007 was the bottom in sales, there is plenty of must-sell and want to sell inventory in the pipeline that one doesn’t need to worry about missing the upswing for at least a year or two.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

The number was based on sales as reported by DataQuick. Sales were so low in Sept 2007 that it was a fairly easy number to beat. Also, Sept 08 sales were higher than August ’08, so there was some relative strength in the number of sales. This was driven by lower priced homes and foreclosures.
We may have seen the bottom in sales, but remember it takes a couple years of sustained changes in sales to start impacting price. Remember, sales peaked in 2003 or so and prices didn’t start dropping noticeably until late 2005.

In the early-mid 1990’s slump sales bottomed somewhere around 1993, but prices didn’t pick up until 1996 or later in some areas.

So, even if Fall 2007 was the bottom in sales, there is plenty of must-sell and want to sell inventory in the pipeline that one doesn’t need to worry about missing the upswing for at least a year or two.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

The number was based on sales as reported by DataQuick. Sales were so low in Sept 2007 that it was a fairly easy number to beat. Also, Sept 08 sales were higher than August ’08, so there was some relative strength in the number of sales. This was driven by lower priced homes and foreclosures.
We may have seen the bottom in sales, but remember it takes a couple years of sustained changes in sales to start impacting price. Remember, sales peaked in 2003 or so and prices didn’t start dropping noticeably until late 2005.

In the early-mid 1990’s slump sales bottomed somewhere around 1993, but prices didn’t pick up until 1996 or later in some areas.

So, even if Fall 2007 was the bottom in sales, there is plenty of must-sell and want to sell inventory in the pipeline that one doesn’t need to worry about missing the upswing for at least a year or two.

[Author]

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