We are richer when house prices go down

[patientlywaiting]

“There’s nothing troubling about a gradual correction of home prices. If we keep our incomes at the current level and home prices go down we are richer, we can buy more housing,” Shiller said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN2126522720080222?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0&r=undefined&sp=true

I love how Prof. Shiller is always calm and pragmatic when giving interviews.

In economic terms, if we can buy more widgets (or afford more shelter) for the same amount of money, then we are richer as a society. What’s not to like about that?

1) Why is it that people have a hard time understanding this simple concept.

2) Why do people have have such visceral negative reactions to dropping house values? I would guess that only the people who overpaid do. To me, overpaying in San Diego would be anything above 2000 prices.

[kewp]

Because all of the genius RE speculators leveraged one property into a dozen and are now left holding the bag. They can’t possibly have made bad investments, could they?

Or the borrowers that have been moving every two years after withdrawing all their equity via HELOC’s. They are left with the option of bankruptcy or spending the next few decades paying down debt.

Might also be the boomers, whom were counting on selling their home to finance their dream retirement, as they haven’t been saving.

I’m with Shiller, I rent, own no RE or related assets and am shorting the building and banking sectors. Its all sunshine and rainbows from my POV. And when I do buy, at the bottom, I will have money left over to put into investments and the local economy. Rad!

[5yearwaiter]

Well many want fast money and also peer pressure such as some one made half million just buying home – let’s do that If some one really thinks about children and Grand children style they never buy this kind of stuff when their earning not proportional with respect to these housing prices

5yearswaiter

[5yearwaiter]

Well many want fast money and also peer pressure such as some one made half million just buying home – let’s do that If some one really thinks about children and Grand children style they never buy this kind of stuff when their earning not proportional with respect to these housing prices

5yearswaiter

[5yearwaiter]

Well many want fast money and also peer pressure such as some one made half million just buying home – let’s do that If some one really thinks about children and Grand children style they never buy this kind of stuff when their earning not proportional with respect to these housing prices

5yearswaiter

[5yearwaiter]

Well many want fast money and also peer pressure such as some one made half million just buying home – let’s do that If some one really thinks about children and Grand children style they never buy this kind of stuff when their earning not proportional with respect to these housing prices

5yearswaiter

[5yearwaiter]

Well many want fast money and also peer pressure such as some one made half million just buying home – let’s do that If some one really thinks about children and Grand children style they never buy this kind of stuff when their earning not proportional with respect to these housing prices

5yearswaiter

[Mean Reversion]

We are richer when house prices go down.

It is relative.

If no one owned housing, then it would benefit everyone. If everyone owned housing, then everyone would in fact be poorer if house prices went down.

As it stands, the market peaked exactly when there were a record number of home owners.

[golfproz]

It’s also how you look at it. If I buy a house that is 800k I will have little left over every month after paying the mortgage. So I will feel poor. It does not matter if that house goes up in value. I still have the same amount left after making the payment. I could not go out to eat very often or take nice vacations or buy big flat screens or even play nice golf courses. Now if that house drops to 600k and I buy it, I will have a much better quality of life. I will be able to spend that extra money on my leisure activities. I will feel richer! I’m hoping it drops to $400k, then I can play a few rounds at Pebble Beach 🙂

[Coronita]

It's also how you look at it. If I buy a house that is 800k I will have little left over every month after paying the mortgage. So I will feel poor. It does not matter if that house goes up in value. I still have the same amount left after making the payment. I could not go out to eat very often or take nice vacations or buy big flat screens or even play nice golf courses. Now if that house drops to 600k and I buy it, I will have a much better quality of life. I will be able to spend that extra money on my leisure activities. I will feel richer! I'm hoping it drops to $400k, then I can play a few rounds at Pebble Beach 🙂

 

I definitely "felt" richer when I was fresh out of school on my first job , renting  a condo $660/month in LJ making $45k/year back in 96 than I do now, with  a $5000/month house obligation (mortgage+tax+insurance+melloruse+utilities) and $1500/month childcare though my salary are a couple of factors above what I was making. I don't feel "rich" at all. Oh well. Time tap my heloc

 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

It's also how you look at it. If I buy a house that is 800k I will have little left over every month after paying the mortgage. So I will feel poor. It does not matter if that house goes up in value. I still have the same amount left after making the payment. I could not go out to eat very often or take nice vacations or buy big flat screens or even play nice golf courses. Now if that house drops to 600k and I buy it, I will have a much better quality of life. I will be able to spend that extra money on my leisure activities. I will feel richer! I'm hoping it drops to $400k, then I can play a few rounds at Pebble Beach 🙂

 

I definitely "felt" richer when I was fresh out of school on my first job , renting  a condo $660/month in LJ making $45k/year back in 96 than I do now, with  a $5000/month house obligation (mortgage+tax+insurance+melloruse+utilities) and $1500/month childcare though my salary are a couple of factors above what I was making. I don't feel "rich" at all. Oh well. Time tap my heloc

 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

It's also how you look at it. If I buy a house that is 800k I will have little left over every month after paying the mortgage. So I will feel poor. It does not matter if that house goes up in value. I still have the same amount left after making the payment. I could not go out to eat very often or take nice vacations or buy big flat screens or even play nice golf courses. Now if that house drops to 600k and I buy it, I will have a much better quality of life. I will be able to spend that extra money on my leisure activities. I will feel richer! I'm hoping it drops to $400k, then I can play a few rounds at Pebble Beach 🙂

 

I definitely "felt" richer when I was fresh out of school on my first job , renting  a condo $660/month in LJ making $45k/year back in 96 than I do now, with  a $5000/month house obligation (mortgage+tax+insurance+melloruse+utilities) and $1500/month childcare though my salary are a couple of factors above what I was making. I don't feel "rich" at all. Oh well. Time tap my heloc

 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

It's also how you look at it. If I buy a house that is 800k I will have little left over every month after paying the mortgage. So I will feel poor. It does not matter if that house goes up in value. I still have the same amount left after making the payment. I could not go out to eat very often or take nice vacations or buy big flat screens or even play nice golf courses. Now if that house drops to 600k and I buy it, I will have a much better quality of life. I will be able to spend that extra money on my leisure activities. I will feel richer! I'm hoping it drops to $400k, then I can play a few rounds at Pebble Beach 🙂

 

I definitely "felt" richer when I was fresh out of school on my first job , renting  a condo $660/month in LJ making $45k/year back in 96 than I do now, with  a $5000/month house obligation (mortgage+tax+insurance+melloruse+utilities) and $1500/month childcare though my salary are a couple of factors above what I was making. I don't feel "rich" at all. Oh well. Time tap my heloc

 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

It's also how you look at it. If I buy a house that is 800k I will have little left over every month after paying the mortgage. So I will feel poor. It does not matter if that house goes up in value. I still have the same amount left after making the payment. I could not go out to eat very often or take nice vacations or buy big flat screens or even play nice golf courses. Now if that house drops to 600k and I buy it, I will have a much better quality of life. I will be able to spend that extra money on my leisure activities. I will feel richer! I'm hoping it drops to $400k, then I can play a few rounds at Pebble Beach 🙂

 

I definitely "felt" richer when I was fresh out of school on my first job , renting  a condo $660/month in LJ making $45k/year back in 96 than I do now, with  a $5000/month house obligation (mortgage+tax+insurance+melloruse+utilities) and $1500/month childcare though my salary are a couple of factors above what I was making. I don't feel "rich" at all. Oh well. Time tap my heloc

 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[golfproz]

It’s also how you look at it. If I buy a house that is 800k I will have little left over every month after paying the mortgage. So I will feel poor. It does not matter if that house goes up in value. I still have the same amount left after making the payment. I could not go out to eat very often or take nice vacations or buy big flat screens or even play nice golf courses. Now if that house drops to 600k and I buy it, I will have a much better quality of life. I will be able to spend that extra money on my leisure activities. I will feel richer! I’m hoping it drops to $400k, then I can play a few rounds at Pebble Beach 🙂

[golfproz]

It’s also how you look at it. If I buy a house that is 800k I will have little left over every month after paying the mortgage. So I will feel poor. It does not matter if that house goes up in value. I still have the same amount left after making the payment. I could not go out to eat very often or take nice vacations or buy big flat screens or even play nice golf courses. Now if that house drops to 600k and I buy it, I will have a much better quality of life. I will be able to spend that extra money on my leisure activities. I will feel richer! I’m hoping it drops to $400k, then I can play a few rounds at Pebble Beach 🙂

[golfproz]

It’s also how you look at it. If I buy a house that is 800k I will have little left over every month after paying the mortgage. So I will feel poor. It does not matter if that house goes up in value. I still have the same amount left after making the payment. I could not go out to eat very often or take nice vacations or buy big flat screens or even play nice golf courses. Now if that house drops to 600k and I buy it, I will have a much better quality of life. I will be able to spend that extra money on my leisure activities. I will feel richer! I’m hoping it drops to $400k, then I can play a few rounds at Pebble Beach 🙂

[golfproz]

It’s also how you look at it. If I buy a house that is 800k I will have little left over every month after paying the mortgage. So I will feel poor. It does not matter if that house goes up in value. I still have the same amount left after making the payment. I could not go out to eat very often or take nice vacations or buy big flat screens or even play nice golf courses. Now if that house drops to 600k and I buy it, I will have a much better quality of life. I will be able to spend that extra money on my leisure activities. I will feel richer! I’m hoping it drops to $400k, then I can play a few rounds at Pebble Beach 🙂

[Mean Reversion]

We are richer when house prices go down.

It is relative.

If no one owned housing, then it would benefit everyone. If everyone owned housing, then everyone would in fact be poorer if house prices went down.

As it stands, the market peaked exactly when there were a record number of home owners.

[Mean Reversion]

We are richer when house prices go down.

It is relative.

If no one owned housing, then it would benefit everyone. If everyone owned housing, then everyone would in fact be poorer if house prices went down.

As it stands, the market peaked exactly when there were a record number of home owners.

[Mean Reversion]

We are richer when house prices go down.

It is relative.

If no one owned housing, then it would benefit everyone. If everyone owned housing, then everyone would in fact be poorer if house prices went down.

As it stands, the market peaked exactly when there were a record number of home owners.

[Mean Reversion]

We are richer when house prices go down.

It is relative.

If no one owned housing, then it would benefit everyone. If everyone owned housing, then everyone would in fact be poorer if house prices went down.

As it stands, the market peaked exactly when there were a record number of home owners.

[kewp]

Because all of the genius RE speculators leveraged one property into a dozen and are now left holding the bag. They can’t possibly have made bad investments, could they?

Or the borrowers that have been moving every two years after withdrawing all their equity via HELOC’s. They are left with the option of bankruptcy or spending the next few decades paying down debt.

Might also be the boomers, whom were counting on selling their home to finance their dream retirement, as they haven’t been saving.

I’m with Shiller, I rent, own no RE or related assets and am shorting the building and banking sectors. Its all sunshine and rainbows from my POV. And when I do buy, at the bottom, I will have money left over to put into investments and the local economy. Rad!

[kewp]

Because all of the genius RE speculators leveraged one property into a dozen and are now left holding the bag. They can’t possibly have made bad investments, could they?

Or the borrowers that have been moving every two years after withdrawing all their equity via HELOC’s. They are left with the option of bankruptcy or spending the next few decades paying down debt.

Might also be the boomers, whom were counting on selling their home to finance their dream retirement, as they haven’t been saving.

I’m with Shiller, I rent, own no RE or related assets and am shorting the building and banking sectors. Its all sunshine and rainbows from my POV. And when I do buy, at the bottom, I will have money left over to put into investments and the local economy. Rad!

[kewp]

Because all of the genius RE speculators leveraged one property into a dozen and are now left holding the bag. They can’t possibly have made bad investments, could they?

Or the borrowers that have been moving every two years after withdrawing all their equity via HELOC’s. They are left with the option of bankruptcy or spending the next few decades paying down debt.

Might also be the boomers, whom were counting on selling their home to finance their dream retirement, as they haven’t been saving.

I’m with Shiller, I rent, own no RE or related assets and am shorting the building and banking sectors. Its all sunshine and rainbows from my POV. And when I do buy, at the bottom, I will have money left over to put into investments and the local economy. Rad!

[kewp]

Because all of the genius RE speculators leveraged one property into a dozen and are now left holding the bag. They can’t possibly have made bad investments, could they?

Or the borrowers that have been moving every two years after withdrawing all their equity via HELOC’s. They are left with the option of bankruptcy or spending the next few decades paying down debt.

Might also be the boomers, whom were counting on selling their home to finance their dream retirement, as they haven’t been saving.

I’m with Shiller, I rent, own no RE or related assets and am shorting the building and banking sectors. Its all sunshine and rainbows from my POV. And when I do buy, at the bottom, I will have money left over to put into investments and the local economy. Rad!

[ucodegen]

2) Why do people have have such visceral negative reactions to dropping house values?

MEW. Mortgage Equity Withdraw? People living beyond their means by using the funny money within their home.. When the prices drop, their ability to withdraw that equity ceases.

[ucodegen]

2) Why do people have have such visceral negative reactions to dropping house values?

MEW. Mortgage Equity Withdraw? People living beyond their means by using the funny money within their home.. When the prices drop, their ability to withdraw that equity ceases.

[ucodegen]

2) Why do people have have such visceral negative reactions to dropping house values?

MEW. Mortgage Equity Withdraw? People living beyond their means by using the funny money within their home.. When the prices drop, their ability to withdraw that equity ceases.

[ucodegen]

2) Why do people have have such visceral negative reactions to dropping house values?

MEW. Mortgage Equity Withdraw? People living beyond their means by using the funny money within their home.. When the prices drop, their ability to withdraw that equity ceases.

[ucodegen]

2) Why do people have have such visceral negative reactions to dropping house values?

MEW. Mortgage Equity Withdraw? People living beyond their means by using the funny money within their home.. When the prices drop, their ability to withdraw that equity ceases.

[patientrenter]

kewp has it. Baby boomers haven’t been saving, but they were hoping that the next generation of homebuyers would keep them in bon-bons in their retirement. What’s that song again “… money for nothing…”.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

kewp has it. Baby boomers haven’t been saving, but they were hoping that the next generation of homebuyers would keep them in bon-bons in their retirement. What’s that song again “… money for nothing…”.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

kewp has it. Baby boomers haven’t been saving, but they were hoping that the next generation of homebuyers would keep them in bon-bons in their retirement. What’s that song again “… money for nothing…”.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

kewp has it. Baby boomers haven’t been saving, but they were hoping that the next generation of homebuyers would keep them in bon-bons in their retirement. What’s that song again “… money for nothing…”.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

kewp has it. Baby boomers haven’t been saving, but they were hoping that the next generation of homebuyers would keep them in bon-bons in their retirement. What’s that song again “… money for nothing…”.

Patient renter in OC

[hipmatt]

Schiller is absolutely right. If you look at RE prices and compare them to any other commodity, like beef, oil, wheat, or even health care, you will find a huge celebration when any of these other commodities becomes more affordable, and markets would likely pop upwards, but with housing its different.

Not that its gonna happen, but I think that we need to end the home owner deductions. and /or give deductions to those who rent.(shelter is shelter) And stop taxes on money made in interest, investments, or dividends. We need to stop rewarding people for borrowing, and start rewarding them for saving. You won’t have a credit crisis then.

[Deal Hunter]

Hipmatt said,

"Not that its gonna happen, but I think that we need to end the home owner deductions. and /or give deductions to those who rent.(shelter is shelter) And stop taxes on money made in interest, investments, or dividends."

This is precisely what is outlined in Bush's Tax Reform Panel that was conducted in 2005. (http://www.taxreformpanel.gov/)

Part of the reform includes the elimination of the Mortgage Interest Deduction for homeowners as well as privitization of entitlements such as social security retirement.  Taxation of investment income would be effectively stopped.

This is actually pretty close to happening in 2008.  Bush's last budget had a short fall of about $90 billion.  The potential income from cutting the mortgage int deductions is $94 billion (according to the Tax Reform panel).  Is this a coincedence?  I think not!

So few are paying attention (and the panel and Bush's last budget come to the public's attention 3 whole years apart), but it really smells of a set up.  All of the budget shortfalls and the stimulus to the housing market somehow can be addressed by implementing the advisements of the Tax Reform Panel of 2005! 

 

 

[Deal Hunter]

Hipmatt said,

"Not that its gonna happen, but I think that we need to end the home owner deductions. and /or give deductions to those who rent.(shelter is shelter) And stop taxes on money made in interest, investments, or dividends."

This is precisely what is outlined in Bush's Tax Reform Panel that was conducted in 2005. (http://www.taxreformpanel.gov/)

Part of the reform includes the elimination of the Mortgage Interest Deduction for homeowners as well as privitization of entitlements such as social security retirement.  Taxation of investment income would be effectively stopped.

This is actually pretty close to happening in 2008.  Bush's last budget had a short fall of about $90 billion.  The potential income from cutting the mortgage int deductions is $94 billion (according to the Tax Reform panel).  Is this a coincedence?  I think not!

So few are paying attention (and the panel and Bush's last budget come to the public's attention 3 whole years apart), but it really smells of a set up.  All of the budget shortfalls and the stimulus to the housing market somehow can be addressed by implementing the advisements of the Tax Reform Panel of 2005! 

 

 

[Deal Hunter]

Hipmatt said,

"Not that its gonna happen, but I think that we need to end the home owner deductions. and /or give deductions to those who rent.(shelter is shelter) And stop taxes on money made in interest, investments, or dividends."

This is precisely what is outlined in Bush's Tax Reform Panel that was conducted in 2005. (http://www.taxreformpanel.gov/)

Part of the reform includes the elimination of the Mortgage Interest Deduction for homeowners as well as privitization of entitlements such as social security retirement.  Taxation of investment income would be effectively stopped.

This is actually pretty close to happening in 2008.  Bush's last budget had a short fall of about $90 billion.  The potential income from cutting the mortgage int deductions is $94 billion (according to the Tax Reform panel).  Is this a coincedence?  I think not!

So few are paying attention (and the panel and Bush's last budget come to the public's attention 3 whole years apart), but it really smells of a set up.  All of the budget shortfalls and the stimulus to the housing market somehow can be addressed by implementing the advisements of the Tax Reform Panel of 2005! 

 

 

[Deal Hunter]

Hipmatt said,

"Not that its gonna happen, but I think that we need to end the home owner deductions. and /or give deductions to those who rent.(shelter is shelter) And stop taxes on money made in interest, investments, or dividends."

This is precisely what is outlined in Bush's Tax Reform Panel that was conducted in 2005. (http://www.taxreformpanel.gov/)

Part of the reform includes the elimination of the Mortgage Interest Deduction for homeowners as well as privitization of entitlements such as social security retirement.  Taxation of investment income would be effectively stopped.

This is actually pretty close to happening in 2008.  Bush's last budget had a short fall of about $90 billion.  The potential income from cutting the mortgage int deductions is $94 billion (according to the Tax Reform panel).  Is this a coincedence?  I think not!

So few are paying attention (and the panel and Bush's last budget come to the public's attention 3 whole years apart), but it really smells of a set up.  All of the budget shortfalls and the stimulus to the housing market somehow can be addressed by implementing the advisements of the Tax Reform Panel of 2005! 

 

 

[Deal Hunter]

Hipmatt said,

"Not that its gonna happen, but I think that we need to end the home owner deductions. and /or give deductions to those who rent.(shelter is shelter) And stop taxes on money made in interest, investments, or dividends."

This is precisely what is outlined in Bush's Tax Reform Panel that was conducted in 2005. (http://www.taxreformpanel.gov/)

Part of the reform includes the elimination of the Mortgage Interest Deduction for homeowners as well as privitization of entitlements such as social security retirement.  Taxation of investment income would be effectively stopped.

This is actually pretty close to happening in 2008.  Bush's last budget had a short fall of about $90 billion.  The potential income from cutting the mortgage int deductions is $94 billion (according to the Tax Reform panel).  Is this a coincedence?  I think not!

So few are paying attention (and the panel and Bush's last budget come to the public's attention 3 whole years apart), but it really smells of a set up.  All of the budget shortfalls and the stimulus to the housing market somehow can be addressed by implementing the advisements of the Tax Reform Panel of 2005! 

 

 

[hipmatt]

Schiller is absolutely right. If you look at RE prices and compare them to any other commodity, like beef, oil, wheat, or even health care, you will find a huge celebration when any of these other commodities becomes more affordable, and markets would likely pop upwards, but with housing its different.

Not that its gonna happen, but I think that we need to end the home owner deductions. and /or give deductions to those who rent.(shelter is shelter) And stop taxes on money made in interest, investments, or dividends. We need to stop rewarding people for borrowing, and start rewarding them for saving. You won’t have a credit crisis then.

[hipmatt]

Schiller is absolutely right. If you look at RE prices and compare them to any other commodity, like beef, oil, wheat, or even health care, you will find a huge celebration when any of these other commodities becomes more affordable, and markets would likely pop upwards, but with housing its different.

Not that its gonna happen, but I think that we need to end the home owner deductions. and /or give deductions to those who rent.(shelter is shelter) And stop taxes on money made in interest, investments, or dividends. We need to stop rewarding people for borrowing, and start rewarding them for saving. You won’t have a credit crisis then.

[hipmatt]

Schiller is absolutely right. If you look at RE prices and compare them to any other commodity, like beef, oil, wheat, or even health care, you will find a huge celebration when any of these other commodities becomes more affordable, and markets would likely pop upwards, but with housing its different.

Not that its gonna happen, but I think that we need to end the home owner deductions. and /or give deductions to those who rent.(shelter is shelter) And stop taxes on money made in interest, investments, or dividends. We need to stop rewarding people for borrowing, and start rewarding them for saving. You won’t have a credit crisis then.

[hipmatt]

Schiller is absolutely right. If you look at RE prices and compare them to any other commodity, like beef, oil, wheat, or even health care, you will find a huge celebration when any of these other commodities becomes more affordable, and markets would likely pop upwards, but with housing its different.

Not that its gonna happen, but I think that we need to end the home owner deductions. and /or give deductions to those who rent.(shelter is shelter) And stop taxes on money made in interest, investments, or dividends. We need to stop rewarding people for borrowing, and start rewarding them for saving. You won’t have a credit crisis then.

[DWCAP]

-Why do people have have such visceral negative reactions to dropping house values?

Everyone wants to think they got a deal. Remember when the iphones came out. People were more than happy to fork over the $$$, but as soon as the price dropped they went balistic. This is for a stupid overhyped cellphone/pda. A house is still the biggest single purchase just about anyone makes EVER. Not suprising that we have the same reaction on the same scale of feeling having overpaid.

-Why is it that people have a hard time understanding this simple concept?

Simple, denial is a powerful copeing tool. One that we are very good at. “But, But, My property is Different!”

-Also remember Shiller said:”If we keep our incomes at the current level and home prices go down we are richer, we can buy more housing.”

‘Damnit, now all those damn_________(enter least favorite group of people, not necessary race, it can be age or income level or…….)_______ will start moving in and ruin the neighborhood.’
People think about themselves first, and would rather make 55k when everyone else makes 50k than make 105k when everyone else makes 110k. Wealth is all relative to those around you, and everyone wants to be the richest guy in the room (or atleast make everyone believe they are).

[DWCAP]

-Why do people have have such visceral negative reactions to dropping house values?

Everyone wants to think they got a deal. Remember when the iphones came out. People were more than happy to fork over the $$$, but as soon as the price dropped they went balistic. This is for a stupid overhyped cellphone/pda. A house is still the biggest single purchase just about anyone makes EVER. Not suprising that we have the same reaction on the same scale of feeling having overpaid.

-Why is it that people have a hard time understanding this simple concept?

Simple, denial is a powerful copeing tool. One that we are very good at. “But, But, My property is Different!”

-Also remember Shiller said:”If we keep our incomes at the current level and home prices go down we are richer, we can buy more housing.”

‘Damnit, now all those damn_________(enter least favorite group of people, not necessary race, it can be age or income level or…….)_______ will start moving in and ruin the neighborhood.’
People think about themselves first, and would rather make 55k when everyone else makes 50k than make 105k when everyone else makes 110k. Wealth is all relative to those around you, and everyone wants to be the richest guy in the room (or atleast make everyone believe they are).

[DWCAP]

-Why do people have have such visceral negative reactions to dropping house values?

Everyone wants to think they got a deal. Remember when the iphones came out. People were more than happy to fork over the $$$, but as soon as the price dropped they went balistic. This is for a stupid overhyped cellphone/pda. A house is still the biggest single purchase just about anyone makes EVER. Not suprising that we have the same reaction on the same scale of feeling having overpaid.

-Why is it that people have a hard time understanding this simple concept?

Simple, denial is a powerful copeing tool. One that we are very good at. “But, But, My property is Different!”

-Also remember Shiller said:”If we keep our incomes at the current level and home prices go down we are richer, we can buy more housing.”

‘Damnit, now all those damn_________(enter least favorite group of people, not necessary race, it can be age or income level or…….)_______ will start moving in and ruin the neighborhood.’
People think about themselves first, and would rather make 55k when everyone else makes 50k than make 105k when everyone else makes 110k. Wealth is all relative to those around you, and everyone wants to be the richest guy in the room (or atleast make everyone believe they are).

[DWCAP]

-Why do people have have such visceral negative reactions to dropping house values?

Everyone wants to think they got a deal. Remember when the iphones came out. People were more than happy to fork over the $$$, but as soon as the price dropped they went balistic. This is for a stupid overhyped cellphone/pda. A house is still the biggest single purchase just about anyone makes EVER. Not suprising that we have the same reaction on the same scale of feeling having overpaid.

-Why is it that people have a hard time understanding this simple concept?

Simple, denial is a powerful copeing tool. One that we are very good at. “But, But, My property is Different!”

-Also remember Shiller said:”If we keep our incomes at the current level and home prices go down we are richer, we can buy more housing.”

‘Damnit, now all those damn_________(enter least favorite group of people, not necessary race, it can be age or income level or…….)_______ will start moving in and ruin the neighborhood.’
People think about themselves first, and would rather make 55k when everyone else makes 50k than make 105k when everyone else makes 110k. Wealth is all relative to those around you, and everyone wants to be the richest guy in the room (or atleast make everyone believe they are).

[DWCAP]

-Why do people have have such visceral negative reactions to dropping house values?

Everyone wants to think they got a deal. Remember when the iphones came out. People were more than happy to fork over the $$$, but as soon as the price dropped they went balistic. This is for a stupid overhyped cellphone/pda. A house is still the biggest single purchase just about anyone makes EVER. Not suprising that we have the same reaction on the same scale of feeling having overpaid.

-Why is it that people have a hard time understanding this simple concept?

Simple, denial is a powerful copeing tool. One that we are very good at. “But, But, My property is Different!”

-Also remember Shiller said:”If we keep our incomes at the current level and home prices go down we are richer, we can buy more housing.”

‘Damnit, now all those damn_________(enter least favorite group of people, not necessary race, it can be age or income level or…….)_______ will start moving in and ruin the neighborhood.’
People think about themselves first, and would rather make 55k when everyone else makes 50k than make 105k when everyone else makes 110k. Wealth is all relative to those around you, and everyone wants to be the richest guy in the room (or atleast make everyone believe they are).

[masayako]

I agree. In general, anyone buy after year 2000 in SD are most likely overpaying for their homes.

[temeculaguy]

I for one am getting richer with every tick down in the market and I can thank my lurker days on this site for aiding in my decision. My income, like many, is stable so with each 10k or 20k reduction in the price of homes, my future monthly disposable income goes up. 2 years ago I was walking around woth a chunk of change to put down on a house and I had owned homes for 20 years so I thought I was supposed to buy and was about to take on a 3k mortgage but lurking here prevented me. A year ago I could have gotten the same house for 2500 but my fellow piggs talked me out of it, four months ago they did it again at 2k, now I can get a nicer house for 1500, yet I sit. Most of the properties I was looking at over the summer have been reduced 25% in the last six months. When you look at all the constant expenses (utilities, food, clothing, savings, vehicle) and you cut your housing expenses in half, you are richer. A lot of flippers got rich 3 years ago, why can’t us reverse flippers get rich now? This renting thing ain’t half bad anyway. I have a nice place, I have money coming out of my a**, I pay cash for everything, I always buy my employees lunch and I always buy the drinks with friends, yet I’m the only renter and I still save more than ever before. Every day I go to redfin and see how much cheaper the new listings are or how much previous listings have been reduced. This is a blast. In the end, Tony Robbins is going to have to pay retail for my book, “getting rich through apathy” or “Zero habits for highly effective people.”

[felix]

How do you benefit or become richer from renting instead of owning unless rents are also coming down or unless you get the home you want at a price you can afford? Unfortunately if you wait too long to buy you not only won’t get the home you want but may get none at all.

The only ones directly losing money when home prices go down are those who are over extended and either have to sell or can no longer live off the equity in their depreciating home. The drop in the price of a neighbors foreclosed home doesn’t directly affect me unless I have to sell or I need the cash I can take from my equity.

As a long time stock trader I am used to watching markets. I know as markets near bottoms less and less trade occurs at the lowest prices. As the benefits(raising cash)of selling diminish only those who have to sell will sell. So as we near a housing bottom fewer and fewer homes will be available for the biggest reductions. That’s great if it’s the one you want and you get it.

If you are a renter waiting to buy and you miss out on the one you wanted or get no home at all what benefit did you get from the “sell off”?

I feel I have been able to get a great price on a 2nd home recently. It was the one I wanted in the neighborhood I wanted.

I was surprised to able to rent it for more than I could get by putting my money in other fixed income instruments. I was expecting only $3400/mo but got $3800/mo.. I’m sure others will be able to do the same as more and more people are being forced into the rental market.

Remember down turns don’t last forever and that you don’t need to get the bottom tick to get a great deal.

An old market adage says, only thing worse than buying (or selling) too early is trying to buy (or sell)too late.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

Methinks someone (Felix) has not seen the Credit Suisse Reset Chart.

ROTFLMAO………..

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

Methinks someone (Felix) has not seen the Credit Suisse Reset Chart.

ROTFLMAO………..

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

Methinks someone (Felix) has not seen the Credit Suisse Reset Chart.

ROTFLMAO………..

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

Methinks someone (Felix) has not seen the Credit Suisse Reset Chart.

ROTFLMAO………..

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

Methinks someone (Felix) has not seen the Credit Suisse Reset Chart.

ROTFLMAO………..

[Anonymous]

Felix, you said the above to say what exactly?? Are you advocating that people buy now in a rapidly depreciating housing market.

I’m sorry, but I just don’t get your point. Although I didn’t get much sleep last night, so I’m a bit of a bitch this morning.

[GoUSC]

Shiller is very pragmatic and I think he makes a lot of good points. I think the last portion of the article really points out to where we need to go:

“In major cities, we see often the service people can’t live there any more, the firemen, school teachers. This is not the way we want our society. We want affordable housing,” he said.

Shiller said it can’t be all or nothing, and that there has been a big misperception that houses will constantly appreciate.

“Some times people will try to imagine that we can have both high home prices and affordable housing. But I can tell you that doesn’t add up,” he said.

“You either have high home prices or lower home prices and lower home prices are what we want, and people shouldn’t be afraid of that,” said Shiller. “Most of us care about our children and grandchildren, and these people have to buy houses so why would we want high home prices. We want economic growth, we don’t want high home prices.”

San Diego is a prime example of this. When you have a market when someone such as myself making well into the 6 digits can’t afford a middle class home you have a real problem that cannot continue going forward.

[GoUSC]

Shiller is very pragmatic and I think he makes a lot of good points. I think the last portion of the article really points out to where we need to go:

“In major cities, we see often the service people can’t live there any more, the firemen, school teachers. This is not the way we want our society. We want affordable housing,” he said.

Shiller said it can’t be all or nothing, and that there has been a big misperception that houses will constantly appreciate.

“Some times people will try to imagine that we can have both high home prices and affordable housing. But I can tell you that doesn’t add up,” he said.

“You either have high home prices or lower home prices and lower home prices are what we want, and people shouldn’t be afraid of that,” said Shiller. “Most of us care about our children and grandchildren, and these people have to buy houses so why would we want high home prices. We want economic growth, we don’t want high home prices.”

San Diego is a prime example of this. When you have a market when someone such as myself making well into the 6 digits can’t afford a middle class home you have a real problem that cannot continue going forward.

[GoUSC]

Shiller is very pragmatic and I think he makes a lot of good points. I think the last portion of the article really points out to where we need to go:

“In major cities, we see often the service people can’t live there any more, the firemen, school teachers. This is not the way we want our society. We want affordable housing,” he said.

Shiller said it can’t be all or nothing, and that there has been a big misperception that houses will constantly appreciate.

“Some times people will try to imagine that we can have both high home prices and affordable housing. But I can tell you that doesn’t add up,” he said.

“You either have high home prices or lower home prices and lower home prices are what we want, and people shouldn’t be afraid of that,” said Shiller. “Most of us care about our children and grandchildren, and these people have to buy houses so why would we want high home prices. We want economic growth, we don’t want high home prices.”

San Diego is a prime example of this. When you have a market when someone such as myself making well into the 6 digits can’t afford a middle class home you have a real problem that cannot continue going forward.

[GoUSC]

Shiller is very pragmatic and I think he makes a lot of good points. I think the last portion of the article really points out to where we need to go:

“In major cities, we see often the service people can’t live there any more, the firemen, school teachers. This is not the way we want our society. We want affordable housing,” he said.

Shiller said it can’t be all or nothing, and that there has been a big misperception that houses will constantly appreciate.

“Some times people will try to imagine that we can have both high home prices and affordable housing. But I can tell you that doesn’t add up,” he said.

“You either have high home prices or lower home prices and lower home prices are what we want, and people shouldn’t be afraid of that,” said Shiller. “Most of us care about our children and grandchildren, and these people have to buy houses so why would we want high home prices. We want economic growth, we don’t want high home prices.”

San Diego is a prime example of this. When you have a market when someone such as myself making well into the 6 digits can’t afford a middle class home you have a real problem that cannot continue going forward.

[GoUSC]

Shiller is very pragmatic and I think he makes a lot of good points. I think the last portion of the article really points out to where we need to go:

“In major cities, we see often the service people can’t live there any more, the firemen, school teachers. This is not the way we want our society. We want affordable housing,” he said.

Shiller said it can’t be all or nothing, and that there has been a big misperception that houses will constantly appreciate.

“Some times people will try to imagine that we can have both high home prices and affordable housing. But I can tell you that doesn’t add up,” he said.

“You either have high home prices or lower home prices and lower home prices are what we want, and people shouldn’t be afraid of that,” said Shiller. “Most of us care about our children and grandchildren, and these people have to buy houses so why would we want high home prices. We want economic growth, we don’t want high home prices.”

San Diego is a prime example of this. When you have a market when someone such as myself making well into the 6 digits can’t afford a middle class home you have a real problem that cannot continue going forward.

[felix]

I’m not advocating anything. I’m pointing out that down markets turn around without every body who wants to buy getting filled. In fact, that is what creates the turnaround.

I’m also pointing out that the “losses” holders of real estate are suffering are really only affecting the few who have to sell or those who have used their home as a bank. The vast majority of home owners are doing neither.

I’m also pointing out that very few people relatively will get homes at or near the bottom ticks.

Lastly, I’m pointing out that, even right now, one can buy real estate as an investment and get a very nice return, from renters. And that real estate investment in the long or midterm is not only likely to rise but historically has always risen.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD
Felix,
I hate break this to you, but it is not 2006 anymore.
The points you made have been refuted and debated already for the past two years.

Unless the Fed monetizes the mortgages, homedebtors are ultimately screwed. The only question is how many of us do they drag down with them.

[felix]

Jwm, indeed it is not 2006. It is 2008 and we are now closer to the bottom than we were in ’06. So whatever you refuted then doesn’t necessarily still ring true. Rates have been reduced dramatically and home pricing has already moderated dramatically.

yes, some home debtors will be out of their homes. It will be those who overextended themselves. The vast majority who have not overextended themselves or used their home as a bank will not be dragged down regardless of whether the Fed monetizes the mortgages or not.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

I’m sorry Felix but my patience with you is growing thin at this point. You are either a shill or a complete MORON.

The timing of the bottom has been discussed here many times by those who are a lot more knowledgeable than you are I’m afraid (bugs for one). Timing the bottom is most certainly possible…not perfectly but it is real estate so it doesn’t have to be timed perfectly.

The inventory moves much too slowly to not be able time it correctly.

The bigger challenge will be the ability to be remain solvent of the next several years in order take advantage of the bottom

Sorry, you are just flat out WRONG…..

[drunkle]

“2) Why do people have have such visceral negative reactions to dropping house values? I would guess that only the people who overpaid do. To me, overpaying in San Diego would be anything above 2000 prices.”

married to their belief?

they bought into the “real estate always goes up” nonsense and dont want to admit they were wrong, made a mistake or got duped.

investors who are smart know when to cut and run, know when to cut their losses. they’re objective and profit driven, not ideologically bound and gagged.

if things continue on the current trajectory and prices dump below 80’s levels, man, the bitching and moaning you’ll be hearing…

edit: the belly aching you’ll be hearing…

[drunkle]

“2) Why do people have have such visceral negative reactions to dropping house values? I would guess that only the people who overpaid do. To me, overpaying in San Diego would be anything above 2000 prices.”

married to their belief?

they bought into the “real estate always goes up” nonsense and dont want to admit they were wrong, made a mistake or got duped.

investors who are smart know when to cut and run, know when to cut their losses. they’re objective and profit driven, not ideologically bound and gagged.

if things continue on the current trajectory and prices dump below 80’s levels, man, the bitching and moaning you’ll be hearing…

edit: the belly aching you’ll be hearing…

[drunkle]

“2) Why do people have have such visceral negative reactions to dropping house values? I would guess that only the people who overpaid do. To me, overpaying in San Diego would be anything above 2000 prices.”

married to their belief?

they bought into the “real estate always goes up” nonsense and dont want to admit they were wrong, made a mistake or got duped.

investors who are smart know when to cut and run, know when to cut their losses. they’re objective and profit driven, not ideologically bound and gagged.

if things continue on the current trajectory and prices dump below 80’s levels, man, the bitching and moaning you’ll be hearing…

edit: the belly aching you’ll be hearing…

[drunkle]

“2) Why do people have have such visceral negative reactions to dropping house values? I would guess that only the people who overpaid do. To me, overpaying in San Diego would be anything above 2000 prices.”

married to their belief?

they bought into the “real estate always goes up” nonsense and dont want to admit they were wrong, made a mistake or got duped.

investors who are smart know when to cut and run, know when to cut their losses. they’re objective and profit driven, not ideologically bound and gagged.

if things continue on the current trajectory and prices dump below 80’s levels, man, the bitching and moaning you’ll be hearing…

edit: the belly aching you’ll be hearing…

[drunkle]

“2) Why do people have have such visceral negative reactions to dropping house values? I would guess that only the people who overpaid do. To me, overpaying in San Diego would be anything above 2000 prices.”

married to their belief?

they bought into the “real estate always goes up” nonsense and dont want to admit they were wrong, made a mistake or got duped.

investors who are smart know when to cut and run, know when to cut their losses. they’re objective and profit driven, not ideologically bound and gagged.

if things continue on the current trajectory and prices dump below 80’s levels, man, the bitching and moaning you’ll be hearing…

edit: the belly aching you’ll be hearing…

[sdduuuude]

“The bigger challenge will be the ability to be remain solvent of the next several years in order take advantage of the bottom.”

So many people don’t realize this. All that cash can disappear quickly when faced with no job.

[kewp]

So many people don’t realize this. All that cash can disappear quickly when faced with no job.

I’m an uber-bear and even I have underestimated this. I figured employed in RE would go down with the housing bust, but with the bond market blowing up I didn’t realized the contagion would spread to financial services as well. All of those 100k/year brokers hitting bread lines is going to take a major toll on the economy.

[kewp]

So many people don’t realize this. All that cash can disappear quickly when faced with no job.

I’m an uber-bear and even I have underestimated this. I figured employed in RE would go down with the housing bust, but with the bond market blowing up I didn’t realized the contagion would spread to financial services as well. All of those 100k/year brokers hitting bread lines is going to take a major toll on the economy.

[kewp]

So many people don’t realize this. All that cash can disappear quickly when faced with no job.

I’m an uber-bear and even I have underestimated this. I figured employed in RE would go down with the housing bust, but with the bond market blowing up I didn’t realized the contagion would spread to financial services as well. All of those 100k/year brokers hitting bread lines is going to take a major toll on the economy.

[kewp]

So many people don’t realize this. All that cash can disappear quickly when faced with no job.

I’m an uber-bear and even I have underestimated this. I figured employed in RE would go down with the housing bust, but with the bond market blowing up I didn’t realized the contagion would spread to financial services as well. All of those 100k/year brokers hitting bread lines is going to take a major toll on the economy.

[kewp]

So many people don’t realize this. All that cash can disappear quickly when faced with no job.

I’m an uber-bear and even I have underestimated this. I figured employed in RE would go down with the housing bust, but with the bond market blowing up I didn’t realized the contagion would spread to financial services as well. All of those 100k/year brokers hitting bread lines is going to take a major toll on the economy.

[Coronita]

"The bigger challenge will be the ability to be remain solvent of the next several years in order take advantage of the bottom."

So many people don't realize this. All that cash can disappear quickly when faced with no job.

 

….and if the stock market, 401k acounts, come crashing down. Hence, my reoccurring comment. I hope we're all wrong about the crashing economy….I want house prices to come down so they make sense at investments. Personally, I'm not hoping for a complete collapse of the economy, because me thinks most of us average joe's won't be able to purchase houses then. And yes, my average joe applies to you low-side millionaire households.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Aecetia]

I think Temecula Guy is really one of the main characters from Office Space: “The thing is, Bob, it’s not that I’m lazy, it’s that I just don’t care.” The way things are going, someone will just donate their house to him because he is so darn funny.

Wake up Felix, the bubble has popped, the ship has sailed.

[4plexowner]

just to refute one of your numerous incorrect assertions, felix

yes, interest rates have come down dramatically in recent months

what has NOT happened is for those interest rate decreases to translate into the mortgage markets – mortgage interest rates are actually higher now than they were several months ago

you have posted too many incorrect statements to refute them all – I feel sorry for anyone who relies on you for financial advice

[felix]

4plexowner, I’m sorry you are having a problem understanding what I’m saying. Perhaps I haven’t explained it well enough.

Owning a property as an asset, like renting it as I am, is now attractive compared to other financial instruments where i may park my cash. The return is as good or better than many financial instruments and the long term appreciation potetial still remains.

I know that others are now seeing the same thing. Of course this doesn’t mean those who don’t have the financial wherewithal (those who need cheaper mortgages) can step in immediately but its not as far off as you may think.

[sdrealtor]

While felix’s point is full of holes there is some truth in it. Finding the house you want is NOT easy. I have 2 clients right now that are big time bear/bubble sitters sitting on wads of cash. They are both expect to spend between $1M to 1.5M.

We have been looking at homes up to about $2.25M. We have been looking at homes for over a year (each has seen over 100 homes), not to buy one but to educate them as to what they want when they are ready to go. Neither has seen a home yet where they’ve come clost to saying, if this home was $X I would buy it today.

[sdrealtor]

While felix’s point is full of holes there is some truth in it. Finding the house you want is NOT easy. I have 2 clients right now that are big time bear/bubble sitters sitting on wads of cash. They are both expect to spend between $1M to 1.5M.

We have been looking at homes up to about $2.25M. We have been looking at homes for over a year (each has seen over 100 homes), not to buy one but to educate them as to what they want when they are ready to go. Neither has seen a home yet where they’ve come clost to saying, if this home was $X I would buy it today.

[sdrealtor]

While felix’s point is full of holes there is some truth in it. Finding the house you want is NOT easy. I have 2 clients right now that are big time bear/bubble sitters sitting on wads of cash. They are both expect to spend between $1M to 1.5M.

We have been looking at homes up to about $2.25M. We have been looking at homes for over a year (each has seen over 100 homes), not to buy one but to educate them as to what they want when they are ready to go. Neither has seen a home yet where they’ve come clost to saying, if this home was $X I would buy it today.

[sdrealtor]

While felix’s point is full of holes there is some truth in it. Finding the house you want is NOT easy. I have 2 clients right now that are big time bear/bubble sitters sitting on wads of cash. They are both expect to spend between $1M to 1.5M.

We have been looking at homes up to about $2.25M. We have been looking at homes for over a year (each has seen over 100 homes), not to buy one but to educate them as to what they want when they are ready to go. Neither has seen a home yet where they’ve come clost to saying, if this home was $X I would buy it today.

[sdrealtor]

While felix’s point is full of holes there is some truth in it. Finding the house you want is NOT easy. I have 2 clients right now that are big time bear/bubble sitters sitting on wads of cash. They are both expect to spend between $1M to 1.5M.

We have been looking at homes up to about $2.25M. We have been looking at homes for over a year (each has seen over 100 homes), not to buy one but to educate them as to what they want when they are ready to go. Neither has seen a home yet where they’ve come clost to saying, if this home was $X I would buy it today.

[felix]

4plexowner, I’m sorry you are having a problem understanding what I’m saying. Perhaps I haven’t explained it well enough.

Owning a property as an asset, like renting it as I am, is now attractive compared to other financial instruments where i may park my cash. The return is as good or better than many financial instruments and the long term appreciation potetial still remains.

I know that others are now seeing the same thing. Of course this doesn’t mean those who don’t have the financial wherewithal (those who need cheaper mortgages) can step in immediately but its not as far off as you may think.

[felix]

4plexowner, I’m sorry you are having a problem understanding what I’m saying. Perhaps I haven’t explained it well enough.

Owning a property as an asset, like renting it as I am, is now attractive compared to other financial instruments where i may park my cash. The return is as good or better than many financial instruments and the long term appreciation potetial still remains.

I know that others are now seeing the same thing. Of course this doesn’t mean those who don’t have the financial wherewithal (those who need cheaper mortgages) can step in immediately but its not as far off as you may think.

[felix]

4plexowner, I’m sorry you are having a problem understanding what I’m saying. Perhaps I haven’t explained it well enough.

Owning a property as an asset, like renting it as I am, is now attractive compared to other financial instruments where i may park my cash. The return is as good or better than many financial instruments and the long term appreciation potetial still remains.

I know that others are now seeing the same thing. Of course this doesn’t mean those who don’t have the financial wherewithal (those who need cheaper mortgages) can step in immediately but its not as far off as you may think.

[felix]

4plexowner, I’m sorry you are having a problem understanding what I’m saying. Perhaps I haven’t explained it well enough.

Owning a property as an asset, like renting it as I am, is now attractive compared to other financial instruments where i may park my cash. The return is as good or better than many financial instruments and the long term appreciation potetial still remains.

I know that others are now seeing the same thing. Of course this doesn’t mean those who don’t have the financial wherewithal (those who need cheaper mortgages) can step in immediately but its not as far off as you may think.

[4plexowner]

just to refute one of your numerous incorrect assertions, felix

yes, interest rates have come down dramatically in recent months

what has NOT happened is for those interest rate decreases to translate into the mortgage markets – mortgage interest rates are actually higher now than they were several months ago

you have posted too many incorrect statements to refute them all – I feel sorry for anyone who relies on you for financial advice

[4plexowner]

just to refute one of your numerous incorrect assertions, felix

yes, interest rates have come down dramatically in recent months

what has NOT happened is for those interest rate decreases to translate into the mortgage markets – mortgage interest rates are actually higher now than they were several months ago

you have posted too many incorrect statements to refute them all – I feel sorry for anyone who relies on you for financial advice

[4plexowner]

just to refute one of your numerous incorrect assertions, felix

yes, interest rates have come down dramatically in recent months

what has NOT happened is for those interest rate decreases to translate into the mortgage markets – mortgage interest rates are actually higher now than they were several months ago

you have posted too many incorrect statements to refute them all – I feel sorry for anyone who relies on you for financial advice

[4plexowner]

just to refute one of your numerous incorrect assertions, felix

yes, interest rates have come down dramatically in recent months

what has NOT happened is for those interest rate decreases to translate into the mortgage markets – mortgage interest rates are actually higher now than they were several months ago

you have posted too many incorrect statements to refute them all – I feel sorry for anyone who relies on you for financial advice

[Aecetia]

I think Temecula Guy is really one of the main characters from Office Space: “The thing is, Bob, it’s not that I’m lazy, it’s that I just don’t care.” The way things are going, someone will just donate their house to him because he is so darn funny.

Wake up Felix, the bubble has popped, the ship has sailed.

[Aecetia]

I think Temecula Guy is really one of the main characters from Office Space: “The thing is, Bob, it’s not that I’m lazy, it’s that I just don’t care.” The way things are going, someone will just donate their house to him because he is so darn funny.

Wake up Felix, the bubble has popped, the ship has sailed.

[Aecetia]

I think Temecula Guy is really one of the main characters from Office Space: “The thing is, Bob, it’s not that I’m lazy, it’s that I just don’t care.” The way things are going, someone will just donate their house to him because he is so darn funny.

Wake up Felix, the bubble has popped, the ship has sailed.

[Aecetia]

I think Temecula Guy is really one of the main characters from Office Space: “The thing is, Bob, it’s not that I’m lazy, it’s that I just don’t care.” The way things are going, someone will just donate their house to him because he is so darn funny.

Wake up Felix, the bubble has popped, the ship has sailed.

[Coronita]

"The bigger challenge will be the ability to be remain solvent of the next several years in order take advantage of the bottom."

So many people don't realize this. All that cash can disappear quickly when faced with no job.

 

….and if the stock market, 401k acounts, come crashing down. Hence, my reoccurring comment. I hope we're all wrong about the crashing economy….I want house prices to come down so they make sense at investments. Personally, I'm not hoping for a complete collapse of the economy, because me thinks most of us average joe's won't be able to purchase houses then. And yes, my average joe applies to you low-side millionaire households.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

"The bigger challenge will be the ability to be remain solvent of the next several years in order take advantage of the bottom."

So many people don't realize this. All that cash can disappear quickly when faced with no job.

 

….and if the stock market, 401k acounts, come crashing down. Hence, my reoccurring comment. I hope we're all wrong about the crashing economy….I want house prices to come down so they make sense at investments. Personally, I'm not hoping for a complete collapse of the economy, because me thinks most of us average joe's won't be able to purchase houses then. And yes, my average joe applies to you low-side millionaire households.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

"The bigger challenge will be the ability to be remain solvent of the next several years in order take advantage of the bottom."

So many people don't realize this. All that cash can disappear quickly when faced with no job.

 

….and if the stock market, 401k acounts, come crashing down. Hence, my reoccurring comment. I hope we're all wrong about the crashing economy….I want house prices to come down so they make sense at investments. Personally, I'm not hoping for a complete collapse of the economy, because me thinks most of us average joe's won't be able to purchase houses then. And yes, my average joe applies to you low-side millionaire households.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

"The bigger challenge will be the ability to be remain solvent of the next several years in order take advantage of the bottom."

So many people don't realize this. All that cash can disappear quickly when faced with no job.

 

….and if the stock market, 401k acounts, come crashing down. Hence, my reoccurring comment. I hope we're all wrong about the crashing economy….I want house prices to come down so they make sense at investments. Personally, I'm not hoping for a complete collapse of the economy, because me thinks most of us average joe's won't be able to purchase houses then. And yes, my average joe applies to you low-side millionaire households.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[sdduuuude]

“The bigger challenge will be the ability to be remain solvent of the next several years in order take advantage of the bottom.”

So many people don’t realize this. All that cash can disappear quickly when faced with no job.

[sdduuuude]

“The bigger challenge will be the ability to be remain solvent of the next several years in order take advantage of the bottom.”

So many people don’t realize this. All that cash can disappear quickly when faced with no job.

[sdduuuude]

“The bigger challenge will be the ability to be remain solvent of the next several years in order take advantage of the bottom.”

So many people don’t realize this. All that cash can disappear quickly when faced with no job.

[sdduuuude]

“The bigger challenge will be the ability to be remain solvent of the next several years in order take advantage of the bottom.”

So many people don’t realize this. All that cash can disappear quickly when faced with no job.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

I’m sorry Felix but my patience with you is growing thin at this point. You are either a shill or a complete MORON.

The timing of the bottom has been discussed here many times by those who are a lot more knowledgeable than you are I’m afraid (bugs for one). Timing the bottom is most certainly possible…not perfectly but it is real estate so it doesn’t have to be timed perfectly.

The inventory moves much too slowly to not be able time it correctly.

The bigger challenge will be the ability to be remain solvent of the next several years in order take advantage of the bottom

Sorry, you are just flat out WRONG…..

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

I’m sorry Felix but my patience with you is growing thin at this point. You are either a shill or a complete MORON.

The timing of the bottom has been discussed here many times by those who are a lot more knowledgeable than you are I’m afraid (bugs for one). Timing the bottom is most certainly possible…not perfectly but it is real estate so it doesn’t have to be timed perfectly.

The inventory moves much too slowly to not be able time it correctly.

The bigger challenge will be the ability to be remain solvent of the next several years in order take advantage of the bottom

Sorry, you are just flat out WRONG…..

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

I’m sorry Felix but my patience with you is growing thin at this point. You are either a shill or a complete MORON.

The timing of the bottom has been discussed here many times by those who are a lot more knowledgeable than you are I’m afraid (bugs for one). Timing the bottom is most certainly possible…not perfectly but it is real estate so it doesn’t have to be timed perfectly.

The inventory moves much too slowly to not be able time it correctly.

The bigger challenge will be the ability to be remain solvent of the next several years in order take advantage of the bottom

Sorry, you are just flat out WRONG…..

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

I’m sorry Felix but my patience with you is growing thin at this point. You are either a shill or a complete MORON.

The timing of the bottom has been discussed here many times by those who are a lot more knowledgeable than you are I’m afraid (bugs for one). Timing the bottom is most certainly possible…not perfectly but it is real estate so it doesn’t have to be timed perfectly.

The inventory moves much too slowly to not be able time it correctly.

The bigger challenge will be the ability to be remain solvent of the next several years in order take advantage of the bottom

Sorry, you are just flat out WRONG…..

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Felix I tip my cap to you, but you have not been in here long enough to know that any marginally postive comments will be pummelled. Your view on this is from someone with investment experience. Thanks for the added balance, and best of luck with the attacks that will be launched at you. If it is of any value, I share your view.

I would wager that most people in here will be left holding the bag just like is always the case when bottoms are made. If it was obvious to everyone, it would not happen by definition.

I have stated that I think we are much closer to the lows than the highs, but of course I am a moron for thinking such dribble.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Felix I tip my cap to you, but you have not been in here long enough to know that any marginally postive comments will be pummelled. Your view on this is from someone with investment experience. Thanks for the added balance, and best of luck with the attacks that will be launched at you. If it is of any value, I share your view.

I would wager that most people in here will be left holding the bag just like is always the case when bottoms are made. If it was obvious to everyone, it would not happen by definition.

I have stated that I think we are much closer to the lows than the highs, but of course I am a moron for thinking such dribble.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Felix I tip my cap to you, but you have not been in here long enough to know that any marginally postive comments will be pummelled. Your view on this is from someone with investment experience. Thanks for the added balance, and best of luck with the attacks that will be launched at you. If it is of any value, I share your view.

I would wager that most people in here will be left holding the bag just like is always the case when bottoms are made. If it was obvious to everyone, it would not happen by definition.

I have stated that I think we are much closer to the lows than the highs, but of course I am a moron for thinking such dribble.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Felix I tip my cap to you, but you have not been in here long enough to know that any marginally postive comments will be pummelled. Your view on this is from someone with investment experience. Thanks for the added balance, and best of luck with the attacks that will be launched at you. If it is of any value, I share your view.

I would wager that most people in here will be left holding the bag just like is always the case when bottoms are made. If it was obvious to everyone, it would not happen by definition.

I have stated that I think we are much closer to the lows than the highs, but of course I am a moron for thinking such dribble.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Felix I tip my cap to you, but you have not been in here long enough to know that any marginally postive comments will be pummelled. Your view on this is from someone with investment experience. Thanks for the added balance, and best of luck with the attacks that will be launched at you. If it is of any value, I share your view.

I would wager that most people in here will be left holding the bag just like is always the case when bottoms are made. If it was obvious to everyone, it would not happen by definition.

I have stated that I think we are much closer to the lows than the highs, but of course I am a moron for thinking such dribble.

[felix]

Jwm, indeed it is not 2006. It is 2008 and we are now closer to the bottom than we were in ’06. So whatever you refuted then doesn’t necessarily still ring true. Rates have been reduced dramatically and home pricing has already moderated dramatically.

yes, some home debtors will be out of their homes. It will be those who overextended themselves. The vast majority who have not overextended themselves or used their home as a bank will not be dragged down regardless of whether the Fed monetizes the mortgages or not.

[felix]

Jwm, indeed it is not 2006. It is 2008 and we are now closer to the bottom than we were in ’06. So whatever you refuted then doesn’t necessarily still ring true. Rates have been reduced dramatically and home pricing has already moderated dramatically.

yes, some home debtors will be out of their homes. It will be those who overextended themselves. The vast majority who have not overextended themselves or used their home as a bank will not be dragged down regardless of whether the Fed monetizes the mortgages or not.

[felix]

Jwm, indeed it is not 2006. It is 2008 and we are now closer to the bottom than we were in ’06. So whatever you refuted then doesn’t necessarily still ring true. Rates have been reduced dramatically and home pricing has already moderated dramatically.

yes, some home debtors will be out of their homes. It will be those who overextended themselves. The vast majority who have not overextended themselves or used their home as a bank will not be dragged down regardless of whether the Fed monetizes the mortgages or not.

[felix]

Jwm, indeed it is not 2006. It is 2008 and we are now closer to the bottom than we were in ’06. So whatever you refuted then doesn’t necessarily still ring true. Rates have been reduced dramatically and home pricing has already moderated dramatically.

yes, some home debtors will be out of their homes. It will be those who overextended themselves. The vast majority who have not overextended themselves or used their home as a bank will not be dragged down regardless of whether the Fed monetizes the mortgages or not.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD
Felix,
I hate break this to you, but it is not 2006 anymore.
The points you made have been refuted and debated already for the past two years.

Unless the Fed monetizes the mortgages, homedebtors are ultimately screwed. The only question is how many of us do they drag down with them.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD
Felix,
I hate break this to you, but it is not 2006 anymore.
The points you made have been refuted and debated already for the past two years.

Unless the Fed monetizes the mortgages, homedebtors are ultimately screwed. The only question is how many of us do they drag down with them.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD
Felix,
I hate break this to you, but it is not 2006 anymore.
The points you made have been refuted and debated already for the past two years.

Unless the Fed monetizes the mortgages, homedebtors are ultimately screwed. The only question is how many of us do they drag down with them.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD
Felix,
I hate break this to you, but it is not 2006 anymore.
The points you made have been refuted and debated already for the past two years.

Unless the Fed monetizes the mortgages, homedebtors are ultimately screwed. The only question is how many of us do they drag down with them.

[Raybyrnes]

felix

If you can show a profit right now buying and renting that is exceptional but i would say that it is a half court shot for most people in this market.

I have a fiend who is a banrupcy attorney in NY who own a real estate brokerage who is turning a profit becasue he is buying up preforeclosers at steep discounts and haas worked with severl lenders which has helped him stream line the process. He is also capitalized through a group of investors and his brother is a general contractor.

That is a people and professionalism that is need to turn a profit on real estate. The average Joe just can’t do that so to suggest that there are opportunities to own and make a profit (there might be) but to a larger extent this is probably not the best place to put your money. Even I will readliy admit that and I am not nearly as bearish as many others on the board.

[felix]

Ray,

I should have been more clear. I don’t think average Joe’s can or should be doing what I have done. I think that may be part of what created this mess. That is a valid point.

My post was meant as a response to the renting versus buying argument. I was pointing out that people with capital can now purchase Socal property at relatively good prices which generate get a nice rental income while still being an asset that historically appreciates well.

I was also pointing out that at or near the bottom there won’t be enough properties to go around. That is what makes bottoms.

[felix]

Ray,

I should have been more clear. I don’t think average Joe’s can or should be doing what I have done. I think that may be part of what created this mess. That is a valid point.

My post was meant as a response to the renting versus buying argument. I was pointing out that people with capital can now purchase Socal property at relatively good prices which generate get a nice rental income while still being an asset that historically appreciates well.

I was also pointing out that at or near the bottom there won’t be enough properties to go around. That is what makes bottoms.

[felix]

Ray,

I should have been more clear. I don’t think average Joe’s can or should be doing what I have done. I think that may be part of what created this mess. That is a valid point.

My post was meant as a response to the renting versus buying argument. I was pointing out that people with capital can now purchase Socal property at relatively good prices which generate get a nice rental income while still being an asset that historically appreciates well.

I was also pointing out that at or near the bottom there won’t be enough properties to go around. That is what makes bottoms.

[felix]

Ray,

I should have been more clear. I don’t think average Joe’s can or should be doing what I have done. I think that may be part of what created this mess. That is a valid point.

My post was meant as a response to the renting versus buying argument. I was pointing out that people with capital can now purchase Socal property at relatively good prices which generate get a nice rental income while still being an asset that historically appreciates well.

I was also pointing out that at or near the bottom there won’t be enough properties to go around. That is what makes bottoms.

[felix]

Ray,

I should have been more clear. I don’t think average Joe’s can or should be doing what I have done. I think that may be part of what created this mess. That is a valid point.

My post was meant as a response to the renting versus buying argument. I was pointing out that people with capital can now purchase Socal property at relatively good prices which generate get a nice rental income while still being an asset that historically appreciates well.

I was also pointing out that at or near the bottom there won’t be enough properties to go around. That is what makes bottoms.

[Raybyrnes]

felix

If you can show a profit right now buying and renting that is exceptional but i would say that it is a half court shot for most people in this market.

I have a fiend who is a banrupcy attorney in NY who own a real estate brokerage who is turning a profit becasue he is buying up preforeclosers at steep discounts and haas worked with severl lenders which has helped him stream line the process. He is also capitalized through a group of investors and his brother is a general contractor.

That is a people and professionalism that is need to turn a profit on real estate. The average Joe just can’t do that so to suggest that there are opportunities to own and make a profit (there might be) but to a larger extent this is probably not the best place to put your money. Even I will readliy admit that and I am not nearly as bearish as many others on the board.

[Raybyrnes]

felix

If you can show a profit right now buying and renting that is exceptional but i would say that it is a half court shot for most people in this market.

I have a fiend who is a banrupcy attorney in NY who own a real estate brokerage who is turning a profit becasue he is buying up preforeclosers at steep discounts and haas worked with severl lenders which has helped him stream line the process. He is also capitalized through a group of investors and his brother is a general contractor.

That is a people and professionalism that is need to turn a profit on real estate. The average Joe just can’t do that so to suggest that there are opportunities to own and make a profit (there might be) but to a larger extent this is probably not the best place to put your money. Even I will readliy admit that and I am not nearly as bearish as many others on the board.

[Raybyrnes]

felix

If you can show a profit right now buying and renting that is exceptional but i would say that it is a half court shot for most people in this market.

I have a fiend who is a banrupcy attorney in NY who own a real estate brokerage who is turning a profit becasue he is buying up preforeclosers at steep discounts and haas worked with severl lenders which has helped him stream line the process. He is also capitalized through a group of investors and his brother is a general contractor.

That is a people and professionalism that is need to turn a profit on real estate. The average Joe just can’t do that so to suggest that there are opportunities to own and make a profit (there might be) but to a larger extent this is probably not the best place to put your money. Even I will readliy admit that and I am not nearly as bearish as many others on the board.

[Raybyrnes]

felix

If you can show a profit right now buying and renting that is exceptional but i would say that it is a half court shot for most people in this market.

I have a fiend who is a banrupcy attorney in NY who own a real estate brokerage who is turning a profit becasue he is buying up preforeclosers at steep discounts and haas worked with severl lenders which has helped him stream line the process. He is also capitalized through a group of investors and his brother is a general contractor.

That is a people and professionalism that is need to turn a profit on real estate. The average Joe just can’t do that so to suggest that there are opportunities to own and make a profit (there might be) but to a larger extent this is probably not the best place to put your money. Even I will readliy admit that and I am not nearly as bearish as many others on the board.

[felix]

I’m not advocating anything. I’m pointing out that down markets turn around without every body who wants to buy getting filled. In fact, that is what creates the turnaround.

I’m also pointing out that the “losses” holders of real estate are suffering are really only affecting the few who have to sell or those who have used their home as a bank. The vast majority of home owners are doing neither.

I’m also pointing out that very few people relatively will get homes at or near the bottom ticks.

Lastly, I’m pointing out that, even right now, one can buy real estate as an investment and get a very nice return, from renters. And that real estate investment in the long or midterm is not only likely to rise but historically has always risen.

[felix]

I’m not advocating anything. I’m pointing out that down markets turn around without every body who wants to buy getting filled. In fact, that is what creates the turnaround.

I’m also pointing out that the “losses” holders of real estate are suffering are really only affecting the few who have to sell or those who have used their home as a bank. The vast majority of home owners are doing neither.

I’m also pointing out that very few people relatively will get homes at or near the bottom ticks.

Lastly, I’m pointing out that, even right now, one can buy real estate as an investment and get a very nice return, from renters. And that real estate investment in the long or midterm is not only likely to rise but historically has always risen.

[felix]

I’m not advocating anything. I’m pointing out that down markets turn around without every body who wants to buy getting filled. In fact, that is what creates the turnaround.

I’m also pointing out that the “losses” holders of real estate are suffering are really only affecting the few who have to sell or those who have used their home as a bank. The vast majority of home owners are doing neither.

I’m also pointing out that very few people relatively will get homes at or near the bottom ticks.

Lastly, I’m pointing out that, even right now, one can buy real estate as an investment and get a very nice return, from renters. And that real estate investment in the long or midterm is not only likely to rise but historically has always risen.

[felix]

I’m not advocating anything. I’m pointing out that down markets turn around without every body who wants to buy getting filled. In fact, that is what creates the turnaround.

I’m also pointing out that the “losses” holders of real estate are suffering are really only affecting the few who have to sell or those who have used their home as a bank. The vast majority of home owners are doing neither.

I’m also pointing out that very few people relatively will get homes at or near the bottom ticks.

Lastly, I’m pointing out that, even right now, one can buy real estate as an investment and get a very nice return, from renters. And that real estate investment in the long or midterm is not only likely to rise but historically has always risen.

[Anonymous]

Felix, you said the above to say what exactly?? Are you advocating that people buy now in a rapidly depreciating housing market.

I’m sorry, but I just don’t get your point. Although I didn’t get much sleep last night, so I’m a bit of a bitch this morning.

[Anonymous]

Felix, you said the above to say what exactly?? Are you advocating that people buy now in a rapidly depreciating housing market.

I’m sorry, but I just don’t get your point. Although I didn’t get much sleep last night, so I’m a bit of a bitch this morning.

[Anonymous]

Felix, you said the above to say what exactly?? Are you advocating that people buy now in a rapidly depreciating housing market.

I’m sorry, but I just don’t get your point. Although I didn’t get much sleep last night, so I’m a bit of a bitch this morning.

[Anonymous]

Felix, you said the above to say what exactly?? Are you advocating that people buy now in a rapidly depreciating housing market.

I’m sorry, but I just don’t get your point. Although I didn’t get much sleep last night, so I’m a bit of a bitch this morning.

[kewp]

An old market adage says, only thing worse than buying (or selling) too early is trying to buy (or sell)too late.

You are making the assumption that prices are going to bottom then take off again. A ‘V’ pattern.

That is highly unlikely to happen. Whats more realistic is that prices drop and then are flat for a *long* time until all the inventory is worked off.

Look at TemeculaGuy, if he misses out on his ‘dream’ house, so what. There are three more of the same model for sale down the street! For even less now that the comps have been set.

Re:Rental markets. I think you are seeing a short-term effect. Once the renters have some money saved and prices fall even more, they are going to stop renting and buy. There will be such a glut of empty homes that rentals are going to have to fall as well to maintain equilibrium.

[EconProf]

BobS
Great point, TemeculaGuy.
A few years ago we homeowners could claim we “earned” money by simply owning a house. Consider: a $500,000 house going up 12% a year (many years the rate was higher) was making us $5000 per month (not compounded). We could justify to our spouse buying toys and vacations with that ammunition. “Honey, I’m going fishing at Cabo with the money we made last month”. Or, “Yesterday our house made $166.67 for us, let’s go out to that french restaurant.”
Now TemeculaGuy and other smart renters are “capitalizing” their future earnings, gained by waiting to buy, translating their future growing purchasing power into current wealth. Ya gotta love it.

[EconProf]

BobS
Great point, TemeculaGuy.
A few years ago we homeowners could claim we “earned” money by simply owning a house. Consider: a $500,000 house going up 12% a year (many years the rate was higher) was making us $5000 per month (not compounded). We could justify to our spouse buying toys and vacations with that ammunition. “Honey, I’m going fishing at Cabo with the money we made last month”. Or, “Yesterday our house made $166.67 for us, let’s go out to that french restaurant.”
Now TemeculaGuy and other smart renters are “capitalizing” their future earnings, gained by waiting to buy, translating their future growing purchasing power into current wealth. Ya gotta love it.

[EconProf]

BobS
Great point, TemeculaGuy.
A few years ago we homeowners could claim we “earned” money by simply owning a house. Consider: a $500,000 house going up 12% a year (many years the rate was higher) was making us $5000 per month (not compounded). We could justify to our spouse buying toys and vacations with that ammunition. “Honey, I’m going fishing at Cabo with the money we made last month”. Or, “Yesterday our house made $166.67 for us, let’s go out to that french restaurant.”
Now TemeculaGuy and other smart renters are “capitalizing” their future earnings, gained by waiting to buy, translating their future growing purchasing power into current wealth. Ya gotta love it.

[EconProf]

BobS
Great point, TemeculaGuy.
A few years ago we homeowners could claim we “earned” money by simply owning a house. Consider: a $500,000 house going up 12% a year (many years the rate was higher) was making us $5000 per month (not compounded). We could justify to our spouse buying toys and vacations with that ammunition. “Honey, I’m going fishing at Cabo with the money we made last month”. Or, “Yesterday our house made $166.67 for us, let’s go out to that french restaurant.”
Now TemeculaGuy and other smart renters are “capitalizing” their future earnings, gained by waiting to buy, translating their future growing purchasing power into current wealth. Ya gotta love it.

[EconProf]

BobS
Great point, TemeculaGuy.
A few years ago we homeowners could claim we “earned” money by simply owning a house. Consider: a $500,000 house going up 12% a year (many years the rate was higher) was making us $5000 per month (not compounded). We could justify to our spouse buying toys and vacations with that ammunition. “Honey, I’m going fishing at Cabo with the money we made last month”. Or, “Yesterday our house made $166.67 for us, let’s go out to that french restaurant.”
Now TemeculaGuy and other smart renters are “capitalizing” their future earnings, gained by waiting to buy, translating their future growing purchasing power into current wealth. Ya gotta love it.

[felix]

I’m not assuming a V pattern. Prices most likely will bottom and stabilize until inventory is worked off.

Price stabilization doesn’t mean every one who wants a home will get one. Only those those who act will get what they want for a reasonable price. Those who don’t act may get nothing at all.

Yes, Temecula Guy may be able to buy another of the same model down the street. It may even sell for less. However, at some point, and it’s not that far away despite what you read here, he will not be able to buy any of those homes. They will be gone.

Lastly, no one is going to be able tell you when the bottom hits or when to act. It just happens and then everything is gone.

I looked at and some bought property in Telluride a number of years ago. I was out there for only a week and looked at about 8 properties. A week later they were all sold and nothing in that price range was available. Even during this downturn I was bid triple what I paid for that property.

Reading this blog I am concerned that many here who want an affordable home don’t understand that they can miss out. You don’t want to let this opportunity to buy a home at a reasonable price(compared to recent pricing and other investments)without getting the home many here seem to desperately want.

[JWM in SD]

Felix, who do you think you are dealing with here? The RE market is not the stock market. It not like trying to catch a falling biotech stock. It just doesn’t move that fast. There has been massive overbuilding of tract homes and credit is contracting severly…who will there be to compete with that has cash, income and good credit two years from now…optimistically?

Buy now or be priced out forever right?

[felix]

Jwm, you’re right.

There has been over building of tract homes and a contracting of credit. If those are the type of homes you are interested in then until inventory declines prices will be weak. That doesn’t mean you can wait forever to buy if you are interested. At some time, not too far off, those who can buy will.

And RE is different than the stock market with regard to timing. It doesn’t move as fast. However, the psychology behind buying and selling RE and the stock market are quite similar. It seems many here want to buy but are waiting for the bottom tick. They may miss out.

[felix]

Jwm, you’re right.

There has been over building of tract homes and a contracting of credit. If those are the type of homes you are interested in then until inventory declines prices will be weak. That doesn’t mean you can wait forever to buy if you are interested. At some time, not too far off, those who can buy will.

And RE is different than the stock market with regard to timing. It doesn’t move as fast. However, the psychology behind buying and selling RE and the stock market are quite similar. It seems many here want to buy but are waiting for the bottom tick. They may miss out.

[felix]

Jwm, you’re right.

There has been over building of tract homes and a contracting of credit. If those are the type of homes you are interested in then until inventory declines prices will be weak. That doesn’t mean you can wait forever to buy if you are interested. At some time, not too far off, those who can buy will.

And RE is different than the stock market with regard to timing. It doesn’t move as fast. However, the psychology behind buying and selling RE and the stock market are quite similar. It seems many here want to buy but are waiting for the bottom tick. They may miss out.

[felix]

Jwm, you’re right.

There has been over building of tract homes and a contracting of credit. If those are the type of homes you are interested in then until inventory declines prices will be weak. That doesn’t mean you can wait forever to buy if you are interested. At some time, not too far off, those who can buy will.

And RE is different than the stock market with regard to timing. It doesn’t move as fast. However, the psychology behind buying and selling RE and the stock market are quite similar. It seems many here want to buy but are waiting for the bottom tick. They may miss out.

[felix]

Jwm, you’re right.

There has been over building of tract homes and a contracting of credit. If those are the type of homes you are interested in then until inventory declines prices will be weak. That doesn’t mean you can wait forever to buy if you are interested. At some time, not too far off, those who can buy will.

And RE is different than the stock market with regard to timing. It doesn’t move as fast. However, the psychology behind buying and selling RE and the stock market are quite similar. It seems many here want to buy but are waiting for the bottom tick. They may miss out.

[JWM in SD]

Felix, who do you think you are dealing with here? The RE market is not the stock market. It not like trying to catch a falling biotech stock. It just doesn’t move that fast. There has been massive overbuilding of tract homes and credit is contracting severly…who will there be to compete with that has cash, income and good credit two years from now…optimistically?

Buy now or be priced out forever right?

[JWM in SD]

Felix, who do you think you are dealing with here? The RE market is not the stock market. It not like trying to catch a falling biotech stock. It just doesn’t move that fast. There has been massive overbuilding of tract homes and credit is contracting severly…who will there be to compete with that has cash, income and good credit two years from now…optimistically?

Buy now or be priced out forever right?

[JWM in SD]

Felix, who do you think you are dealing with here? The RE market is not the stock market. It not like trying to catch a falling biotech stock. It just doesn’t move that fast. There has been massive overbuilding of tract homes and credit is contracting severly…who will there be to compete with that has cash, income and good credit two years from now…optimistically?

Buy now or be priced out forever right?

[JWM in SD]

Felix, who do you think you are dealing with here? The RE market is not the stock market. It not like trying to catch a falling biotech stock. It just doesn’t move that fast. There has been massive overbuilding of tract homes and credit is contracting severly…who will there be to compete with that has cash, income and good credit two years from now…optimistically?

Buy now or be priced out forever right?

[Anonymous]

Submitted by felix on February 27, 2008 – 2:05pm.

Yes, Temecula Guy may be able to buy another of the same model down the street. It may even sell for less. However, at some point, and it’s not that far away despite what you read here, he will not be able to buy any of those homes. They will be gone.

I just don’t believe this. In some areas, maybe. However, in Temecula and Murrieta with the number of foreclosures in the pipeline and already on the market, I don’t see this happening. And you’re assuming that there are all these buyers waiting to snap up deals. Well, yeah, there are prudent people waiting on the sidelines and investors. However, a LOT of people bought during the height of the bubble when anyone and their mother could get financed. These same people are being foreclosed and won’t be in the position to buy even a toilet right now.

yes, some home debtors will be out of their homes. It will be those who overextended themselves. The vast majority who have not overextended themselves or used their home as a bank will not be dragged down regardless of whether the Fed monetizes the mortgages or not.

What are you talking about?? The vast amount of people HAVE overextended themselves. That’s why there are so many foreclosures hitting the market. If they could afford the payments (and most couldn’t) they cooked their won goose by taking money out of phony equity. Also, let’s not forget that psychologically no one wants to be vastly upside down whether they can afford the payments or not.

Your argument sounds like that of a snake-oil salesman turned realtor who’s in denial and trying to sell houses.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by felix on February 27, 2008 – 2:05pm.

Yes, Temecula Guy may be able to buy another of the same model down the street. It may even sell for less. However, at some point, and it’s not that far away despite what you read here, he will not be able to buy any of those homes. They will be gone.

I just don’t believe this. In some areas, maybe. However, in Temecula and Murrieta with the number of foreclosures in the pipeline and already on the market, I don’t see this happening. And you’re assuming that there are all these buyers waiting to snap up deals. Well, yeah, there are prudent people waiting on the sidelines and investors. However, a LOT of people bought during the height of the bubble when anyone and their mother could get financed. These same people are being foreclosed and won’t be in the position to buy even a toilet right now.

yes, some home debtors will be out of their homes. It will be those who overextended themselves. The vast majority who have not overextended themselves or used their home as a bank will not be dragged down regardless of whether the Fed monetizes the mortgages or not.

What are you talking about?? The vast amount of people HAVE overextended themselves. That’s why there are so many foreclosures hitting the market. If they could afford the payments (and most couldn’t) they cooked their won goose by taking money out of phony equity. Also, let’s not forget that psychologically no one wants to be vastly upside down whether they can afford the payments or not.

Your argument sounds like that of a snake-oil salesman turned realtor who’s in denial and trying to sell houses.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by felix on February 27, 2008 – 2:05pm.

Yes, Temecula Guy may be able to buy another of the same model down the street. It may even sell for less. However, at some point, and it’s not that far away despite what you read here, he will not be able to buy any of those homes. They will be gone.

I just don’t believe this. In some areas, maybe. However, in Temecula and Murrieta with the number of foreclosures in the pipeline and already on the market, I don’t see this happening. And you’re assuming that there are all these buyers waiting to snap up deals. Well, yeah, there are prudent people waiting on the sidelines and investors. However, a LOT of people bought during the height of the bubble when anyone and their mother could get financed. These same people are being foreclosed and won’t be in the position to buy even a toilet right now.

yes, some home debtors will be out of their homes. It will be those who overextended themselves. The vast majority who have not overextended themselves or used their home as a bank will not be dragged down regardless of whether the Fed monetizes the mortgages or not.

What are you talking about?? The vast amount of people HAVE overextended themselves. That’s why there are so many foreclosures hitting the market. If they could afford the payments (and most couldn’t) they cooked their won goose by taking money out of phony equity. Also, let’s not forget that psychologically no one wants to be vastly upside down whether they can afford the payments or not.

Your argument sounds like that of a snake-oil salesman turned realtor who’s in denial and trying to sell houses.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by felix on February 27, 2008 – 2:05pm.

Yes, Temecula Guy may be able to buy another of the same model down the street. It may even sell for less. However, at some point, and it’s not that far away despite what you read here, he will not be able to buy any of those homes. They will be gone.

I just don’t believe this. In some areas, maybe. However, in Temecula and Murrieta with the number of foreclosures in the pipeline and already on the market, I don’t see this happening. And you’re assuming that there are all these buyers waiting to snap up deals. Well, yeah, there are prudent people waiting on the sidelines and investors. However, a LOT of people bought during the height of the bubble when anyone and their mother could get financed. These same people are being foreclosed and won’t be in the position to buy even a toilet right now.

yes, some home debtors will be out of their homes. It will be those who overextended themselves. The vast majority who have not overextended themselves or used their home as a bank will not be dragged down regardless of whether the Fed monetizes the mortgages or not.

What are you talking about?? The vast amount of people HAVE overextended themselves. That’s why there are so many foreclosures hitting the market. If they could afford the payments (and most couldn’t) they cooked their won goose by taking money out of phony equity. Also, let’s not forget that psychologically no one wants to be vastly upside down whether they can afford the payments or not.

Your argument sounds like that of a snake-oil salesman turned realtor who’s in denial and trying to sell houses.

[Anonymous]

Submitted by felix on February 27, 2008 – 2:05pm.

Yes, Temecula Guy may be able to buy another of the same model down the street. It may even sell for less. However, at some point, and it’s not that far away despite what you read here, he will not be able to buy any of those homes. They will be gone.

I just don’t believe this. In some areas, maybe. However, in Temecula and Murrieta with the number of foreclosures in the pipeline and already on the market, I don’t see this happening. And you’re assuming that there are all these buyers waiting to snap up deals. Well, yeah, there are prudent people waiting on the sidelines and investors. However, a LOT of people bought during the height of the bubble when anyone and their mother could get financed. These same people are being foreclosed and won’t be in the position to buy even a toilet right now.

yes, some home debtors will be out of their homes. It will be those who overextended themselves. The vast majority who have not overextended themselves or used their home as a bank will not be dragged down regardless of whether the Fed monetizes the mortgages or not.

What are you talking about?? The vast amount of people HAVE overextended themselves. That’s why there are so many foreclosures hitting the market. If they could afford the payments (and most couldn’t) they cooked their won goose by taking money out of phony equity. Also, let’s not forget that psychologically no one wants to be vastly upside down whether they can afford the payments or not.

Your argument sounds like that of a snake-oil salesman turned realtor who’s in denial and trying to sell houses.

[felix]

I’m not assuming a V pattern. Prices most likely will bottom and stabilize until inventory is worked off.

Price stabilization doesn’t mean every one who wants a home will get one. Only those those who act will get what they want for a reasonable price. Those who don’t act may get nothing at all.

Yes, Temecula Guy may be able to buy another of the same model down the street. It may even sell for less. However, at some point, and it’s not that far away despite what you read here, he will not be able to buy any of those homes. They will be gone.

Lastly, no one is going to be able tell you when the bottom hits or when to act. It just happens and then everything is gone.

I looked at and some bought property in Telluride a number of years ago. I was out there for only a week and looked at about 8 properties. A week later they were all sold and nothing in that price range was available. Even during this downturn I was bid triple what I paid for that property.

Reading this blog I am concerned that many here who want an affordable home don’t understand that they can miss out. You don’t want to let this opportunity to buy a home at a reasonable price(compared to recent pricing and other investments)without getting the home many here seem to desperately want.

[felix]

I’m not assuming a V pattern. Prices most likely will bottom and stabilize until inventory is worked off.

Price stabilization doesn’t mean every one who wants a home will get one. Only those those who act will get what they want for a reasonable price. Those who don’t act may get nothing at all.

Yes, Temecula Guy may be able to buy another of the same model down the street. It may even sell for less. However, at some point, and it’s not that far away despite what you read here, he will not be able to buy any of those homes. They will be gone.

Lastly, no one is going to be able tell you when the bottom hits or when to act. It just happens and then everything is gone.

I looked at and some bought property in Telluride a number of years ago. I was out there for only a week and looked at about 8 properties. A week later they were all sold and nothing in that price range was available. Even during this downturn I was bid triple what I paid for that property.

Reading this blog I am concerned that many here who want an affordable home don’t understand that they can miss out. You don’t want to let this opportunity to buy a home at a reasonable price(compared to recent pricing and other investments)without getting the home many here seem to desperately want.

[felix]

I’m not assuming a V pattern. Prices most likely will bottom and stabilize until inventory is worked off.

Price stabilization doesn’t mean every one who wants a home will get one. Only those those who act will get what they want for a reasonable price. Those who don’t act may get nothing at all.

Yes, Temecula Guy may be able to buy another of the same model down the street. It may even sell for less. However, at some point, and it’s not that far away despite what you read here, he will not be able to buy any of those homes. They will be gone.

Lastly, no one is going to be able tell you when the bottom hits or when to act. It just happens and then everything is gone.

I looked at and some bought property in Telluride a number of years ago. I was out there for only a week and looked at about 8 properties. A week later they were all sold and nothing in that price range was available. Even during this downturn I was bid triple what I paid for that property.

Reading this blog I am concerned that many here who want an affordable home don’t understand that they can miss out. You don’t want to let this opportunity to buy a home at a reasonable price(compared to recent pricing and other investments)without getting the home many here seem to desperately want.

[felix]

I’m not assuming a V pattern. Prices most likely will bottom and stabilize until inventory is worked off.

Price stabilization doesn’t mean every one who wants a home will get one. Only those those who act will get what they want for a reasonable price. Those who don’t act may get nothing at all.

Yes, Temecula Guy may be able to buy another of the same model down the street. It may even sell for less. However, at some point, and it’s not that far away despite what you read here, he will not be able to buy any of those homes. They will be gone.

Lastly, no one is going to be able tell you when the bottom hits or when to act. It just happens and then everything is gone.

I looked at and some bought property in Telluride a number of years ago. I was out there for only a week and looked at about 8 properties. A week later they were all sold and nothing in that price range was available. Even during this downturn I was bid triple what I paid for that property.

Reading this blog I am concerned that many here who want an affordable home don’t understand that they can miss out. You don’t want to let this opportunity to buy a home at a reasonable price(compared to recent pricing and other investments)without getting the home many here seem to desperately want.

[kewp]

An old market adage says, only thing worse than buying (or selling) too early is trying to buy (or sell)too late.

You are making the assumption that prices are going to bottom then take off again. A ‘V’ pattern.

That is highly unlikely to happen. Whats more realistic is that prices drop and then are flat for a *long* time until all the inventory is worked off.

Look at TemeculaGuy, if he misses out on his ‘dream’ house, so what. There are three more of the same model for sale down the street! For even less now that the comps have been set.

Re:Rental markets. I think you are seeing a short-term effect. Once the renters have some money saved and prices fall even more, they are going to stop renting and buy. There will be such a glut of empty homes that rentals are going to have to fall as well to maintain equilibrium.

[kewp]

An old market adage says, only thing worse than buying (or selling) too early is trying to buy (or sell)too late.

You are making the assumption that prices are going to bottom then take off again. A ‘V’ pattern.

That is highly unlikely to happen. Whats more realistic is that prices drop and then are flat for a *long* time until all the inventory is worked off.

Look at TemeculaGuy, if he misses out on his ‘dream’ house, so what. There are three more of the same model for sale down the street! For even less now that the comps have been set.

Re:Rental markets. I think you are seeing a short-term effect. Once the renters have some money saved and prices fall even more, they are going to stop renting and buy. There will be such a glut of empty homes that rentals are going to have to fall as well to maintain equilibrium.

[kewp]

An old market adage says, only thing worse than buying (or selling) too early is trying to buy (or sell)too late.

You are making the assumption that prices are going to bottom then take off again. A ‘V’ pattern.

That is highly unlikely to happen. Whats more realistic is that prices drop and then are flat for a *long* time until all the inventory is worked off.

Look at TemeculaGuy, if he misses out on his ‘dream’ house, so what. There are three more of the same model for sale down the street! For even less now that the comps have been set.

Re:Rental markets. I think you are seeing a short-term effect. Once the renters have some money saved and prices fall even more, they are going to stop renting and buy. There will be such a glut of empty homes that rentals are going to have to fall as well to maintain equilibrium.

[kewp]

An old market adage says, only thing worse than buying (or selling) too early is trying to buy (or sell)too late.

You are making the assumption that prices are going to bottom then take off again. A ‘V’ pattern.

That is highly unlikely to happen. Whats more realistic is that prices drop and then are flat for a *long* time until all the inventory is worked off.

Look at TemeculaGuy, if he misses out on his ‘dream’ house, so what. There are three more of the same model for sale down the street! For even less now that the comps have been set.

Re:Rental markets. I think you are seeing a short-term effect. Once the renters have some money saved and prices fall even more, they are going to stop renting and buy. There will be such a glut of empty homes that rentals are going to have to fall as well to maintain equilibrium.

[ltokuda]

“I feel I have been able to get a great price on a 2nd home recently. It was the one I wanted in the neighborhood I wanted.”

“I was surprised to able to rent it for more than I could get by putting my money in other fixed income instruments. I was expecting only $3400/mo but got $3800/mo.. I’m sure others will be able to do the same as more and more people are being forced into the rental market.”

Hi Felix, if you were able to buy a house, rent it out, and get a better return than you would on a fixed income instrument, then you did very well. If you don’t mind sharing, I think a lot of people would be interested in learning more details about your purchase.

The basic questions are: How much did the house cost? How much is insurance? Mello-roos? If you took out a loan, was it a HELOC (where you could deduct the interest payments)? Is this house in California?

With this information, people here can work out the numbers for themselves. If it does work out favorably, I’m sure it will generate a lot of interest. Thanks!

[felix]

Itokuda, you want me to go into info I consider private. I don’t think it should be too surprisingly that’s something I’m not going to do.

However, I will tell you I purchased with cash, that I purchased where I’d have minimal HOAs and no Mello-Roos.
Insurance is about $1500/yr and the home is in the San Diego area with ocean views.

May I ask you something?

What kind of return do you think is good to get on a financial instrument at this time?

And what other assets besides RE do you think would offer me both a good return and good potential for appreciation?

[Raybyrnes]

felix

A good financial instrament? That’s a very subjective term relative to the risk you want to take on.

A risk free rate of retun might be somthing tied to treasuries in which case 2 to 3% might be an acceptable rate of return.

If you are looking at a brader market and are willing to take on risk we would need to consider performance rrelative to the market index. A loss of 3 or 4% might be pretty good on the S and P 500 if you compare it to the index which is probably down 7 or 8% ytd.

A gain of 5 or 6 % might be poor if you are in the equities market if you compare that to Gold or Oil whicha re up better than 10%.

So to address your question as to “good to get on a financial instrument at this time” it would seem to depend on what type of risk you are willling to take.

The same might be true of real estate. If you and a hypothetical buyer are both going to buy comparable homes on the same block and you pay 1 million adn he pays 1.3 millon then you probably got a good deal relative to the property at this point in time.

Lot of moving targets so without getting into your personsonal info I would ask that you provide addioal detail so that we ahve a little more to respond too.

[Raybyrnes]

felix

A good financial instrament? That’s a very subjective term relative to the risk you want to take on.

A risk free rate of retun might be somthing tied to treasuries in which case 2 to 3% might be an acceptable rate of return.

If you are looking at a brader market and are willing to take on risk we would need to consider performance rrelative to the market index. A loss of 3 or 4% might be pretty good on the S and P 500 if you compare it to the index which is probably down 7 or 8% ytd.

A gain of 5 or 6 % might be poor if you are in the equities market if you compare that to Gold or Oil whicha re up better than 10%.

So to address your question as to “good to get on a financial instrument at this time” it would seem to depend on what type of risk you are willling to take.

The same might be true of real estate. If you and a hypothetical buyer are both going to buy comparable homes on the same block and you pay 1 million adn he pays 1.3 millon then you probably got a good deal relative to the property at this point in time.

Lot of moving targets so without getting into your personsonal info I would ask that you provide addioal detail so that we ahve a little more to respond too.

[Raybyrnes]

felix

A good financial instrament? That’s a very subjective term relative to the risk you want to take on.

A risk free rate of retun might be somthing tied to treasuries in which case 2 to 3% might be an acceptable rate of return.

If you are looking at a brader market and are willing to take on risk we would need to consider performance rrelative to the market index. A loss of 3 or 4% might be pretty good on the S and P 500 if you compare it to the index which is probably down 7 or 8% ytd.

A gain of 5 or 6 % might be poor if you are in the equities market if you compare that to Gold or Oil whicha re up better than 10%.

So to address your question as to “good to get on a financial instrument at this time” it would seem to depend on what type of risk you are willling to take.

The same might be true of real estate. If you and a hypothetical buyer are both going to buy comparable homes on the same block and you pay 1 million adn he pays 1.3 millon then you probably got a good deal relative to the property at this point in time.

Lot of moving targets so without getting into your personsonal info I would ask that you provide addioal detail so that we ahve a little more to respond too.

[Raybyrnes]

felix

A good financial instrament? That’s a very subjective term relative to the risk you want to take on.

A risk free rate of retun might be somthing tied to treasuries in which case 2 to 3% might be an acceptable rate of return.

If you are looking at a brader market and are willing to take on risk we would need to consider performance rrelative to the market index. A loss of 3 or 4% might be pretty good on the S and P 500 if you compare it to the index which is probably down 7 or 8% ytd.

A gain of 5 or 6 % might be poor if you are in the equities market if you compare that to Gold or Oil whicha re up better than 10%.

So to address your question as to “good to get on a financial instrument at this time” it would seem to depend on what type of risk you are willling to take.

The same might be true of real estate. If you and a hypothetical buyer are both going to buy comparable homes on the same block and you pay 1 million adn he pays 1.3 millon then you probably got a good deal relative to the property at this point in time.

Lot of moving targets so without getting into your personsonal info I would ask that you provide addioal detail so that we ahve a little more to respond too.

[Raybyrnes]

felix

A good financial instrament? That’s a very subjective term relative to the risk you want to take on.

A risk free rate of retun might be somthing tied to treasuries in which case 2 to 3% might be an acceptable rate of return.

If you are looking at a brader market and are willing to take on risk we would need to consider performance rrelative to the market index. A loss of 3 or 4% might be pretty good on the S and P 500 if you compare it to the index which is probably down 7 or 8% ytd.

A gain of 5 or 6 % might be poor if you are in the equities market if you compare that to Gold or Oil whicha re up better than 10%.

So to address your question as to “good to get on a financial instrument at this time” it would seem to depend on what type of risk you are willling to take.

The same might be true of real estate. If you and a hypothetical buyer are both going to buy comparable homes on the same block and you pay 1 million adn he pays 1.3 millon then you probably got a good deal relative to the property at this point in time.

Lot of moving targets so without getting into your personsonal info I would ask that you provide addioal detail so that we ahve a little more to respond too.

[sdduuuude]

Felix,

If you look at the bottom of this page, you will see a slogan “In God we Trust, Everyone Else Bring Data”

Sad to hear you won’t discuss the detailed financials of a deal you made that shows a good return.

I think most here realize that when such returns are possible, the market will be closer to turning around. Such data would help your argument.

Nobody here knows you. Why not share the data ?
Even if everyone here did know you, why not share the data ?

I urge you to post all the details, short of an address. I’d like to see the economics of how to get a good return in SD real estate. Coming here, making a claim, then not backing it up means one of two things:
1) You are lying or
2) You aren’t here to help us better undersatand the market.

Coming here, then making a claim, then backing it up with data is the way to sway people here.

[sdduuuude]

Felix,

If you look at the bottom of this page, you will see a slogan “In God we Trust, Everyone Else Bring Data”

Sad to hear you won’t discuss the detailed financials of a deal you made that shows a good return.

I think most here realize that when such returns are possible, the market will be closer to turning around. Such data would help your argument.

Nobody here knows you. Why not share the data ?
Even if everyone here did know you, why not share the data ?

I urge you to post all the details, short of an address. I’d like to see the economics of how to get a good return in SD real estate. Coming here, making a claim, then not backing it up means one of two things:
1) You are lying or
2) You aren’t here to help us better undersatand the market.

Coming here, then making a claim, then backing it up with data is the way to sway people here.

[sdduuuude]

Felix,

If you look at the bottom of this page, you will see a slogan “In God we Trust, Everyone Else Bring Data”

Sad to hear you won’t discuss the detailed financials of a deal you made that shows a good return.

I think most here realize that when such returns are possible, the market will be closer to turning around. Such data would help your argument.

Nobody here knows you. Why not share the data ?
Even if everyone here did know you, why not share the data ?

I urge you to post all the details, short of an address. I’d like to see the economics of how to get a good return in SD real estate. Coming here, making a claim, then not backing it up means one of two things:
1) You are lying or
2) You aren’t here to help us better undersatand the market.

Coming here, then making a claim, then backing it up with data is the way to sway people here.

[sdduuuude]

Felix,

If you look at the bottom of this page, you will see a slogan “In God we Trust, Everyone Else Bring Data”

Sad to hear you won’t discuss the detailed financials of a deal you made that shows a good return.

I think most here realize that when such returns are possible, the market will be closer to turning around. Such data would help your argument.

Nobody here knows you. Why not share the data ?
Even if everyone here did know you, why not share the data ?

I urge you to post all the details, short of an address. I’d like to see the economics of how to get a good return in SD real estate. Coming here, making a claim, then not backing it up means one of two things:
1) You are lying or
2) You aren’t here to help us better undersatand the market.

Coming here, then making a claim, then backing it up with data is the way to sway people here.

[sdduuuude]

Felix,

If you look at the bottom of this page, you will see a slogan “In God we Trust, Everyone Else Bring Data”

Sad to hear you won’t discuss the detailed financials of a deal you made that shows a good return.

I think most here realize that when such returns are possible, the market will be closer to turning around. Such data would help your argument.

Nobody here knows you. Why not share the data ?
Even if everyone here did know you, why not share the data ?

I urge you to post all the details, short of an address. I’d like to see the economics of how to get a good return in SD real estate. Coming here, making a claim, then not backing it up means one of two things:
1) You are lying or
2) You aren’t here to help us better undersatand the market.

Coming here, then making a claim, then backing it up with data is the way to sway people here.

[ltokuda]

felix, the reason I ask is that a lot of people on Piggington’s believe that the “ultimate” bottom of the market is when you can buy a property with N % down, rent it out, and get a positive cash flow. If N = 20%, that’s pretty good. If N = 10%, that’s even better. If N = 5%, that’s fantastic. In theory, you should never be able to get to N = 0%. Providing real numbers would let people calculate the value of N for your house.

The other reason I ask is that the experienced rental property owners on this site have talked about “unexpected” costs of owning a rental unit. Besides financing, you have to consider taxes, maintenance, vacancy, insurance, and miscelaneous fees (like trash) if applicable. Its unclear whether you factored in all the parameters when you decided that you got a good deal. It seems like most first time investors don’t take all the costs into account and end up losing money because of it. There are experts on this site who can break down the details much better than I can.

Once you plug in the right numbers, then you can more accurately calculate the expected return on your investment. Then its up to you to decide if that’s a good return or not.

I certainly won’t press you to review personal information that you’re not comfortable sharing. At this point, telling us what numbers you used for vacancy rate, maintenace, etc and telling us your rate of return would basically give away the price you paid. I guess we’ll have to leave it at that. Hopefully, you took all the expenses into account and truly did get a good deal. If so, then we may be getting to the point where there are good buying opportunities again.

[ltokuda]

felix, the reason I ask is that a lot of people on Piggington’s believe that the “ultimate” bottom of the market is when you can buy a property with N % down, rent it out, and get a positive cash flow. If N = 20%, that’s pretty good. If N = 10%, that’s even better. If N = 5%, that’s fantastic. In theory, you should never be able to get to N = 0%. Providing real numbers would let people calculate the value of N for your house.

The other reason I ask is that the experienced rental property owners on this site have talked about “unexpected” costs of owning a rental unit. Besides financing, you have to consider taxes, maintenance, vacancy, insurance, and miscelaneous fees (like trash) if applicable. Its unclear whether you factored in all the parameters when you decided that you got a good deal. It seems like most first time investors don’t take all the costs into account and end up losing money because of it. There are experts on this site who can break down the details much better than I can.

Once you plug in the right numbers, then you can more accurately calculate the expected return on your investment. Then its up to you to decide if that’s a good return or not.

I certainly won’t press you to review personal information that you’re not comfortable sharing. At this point, telling us what numbers you used for vacancy rate, maintenace, etc and telling us your rate of return would basically give away the price you paid. I guess we’ll have to leave it at that. Hopefully, you took all the expenses into account and truly did get a good deal. If so, then we may be getting to the point where there are good buying opportunities again.

[ltokuda]

felix, the reason I ask is that a lot of people on Piggington’s believe that the “ultimate” bottom of the market is when you can buy a property with N % down, rent it out, and get a positive cash flow. If N = 20%, that’s pretty good. If N = 10%, that’s even better. If N = 5%, that’s fantastic. In theory, you should never be able to get to N = 0%. Providing real numbers would let people calculate the value of N for your house.

The other reason I ask is that the experienced rental property owners on this site have talked about “unexpected” costs of owning a rental unit. Besides financing, you have to consider taxes, maintenance, vacancy, insurance, and miscelaneous fees (like trash) if applicable. Its unclear whether you factored in all the parameters when you decided that you got a good deal. It seems like most first time investors don’t take all the costs into account and end up losing money because of it. There are experts on this site who can break down the details much better than I can.

Once you plug in the right numbers, then you can more accurately calculate the expected return on your investment. Then its up to you to decide if that’s a good return or not.

I certainly won’t press you to review personal information that you’re not comfortable sharing. At this point, telling us what numbers you used for vacancy rate, maintenace, etc and telling us your rate of return would basically give away the price you paid. I guess we’ll have to leave it at that. Hopefully, you took all the expenses into account and truly did get a good deal. If so, then we may be getting to the point where there are good buying opportunities again.

[ltokuda]

felix, the reason I ask is that a lot of people on Piggington’s believe that the “ultimate” bottom of the market is when you can buy a property with N % down, rent it out, and get a positive cash flow. If N = 20%, that’s pretty good. If N = 10%, that’s even better. If N = 5%, that’s fantastic. In theory, you should never be able to get to N = 0%. Providing real numbers would let people calculate the value of N for your house.

The other reason I ask is that the experienced rental property owners on this site have talked about “unexpected” costs of owning a rental unit. Besides financing, you have to consider taxes, maintenance, vacancy, insurance, and miscelaneous fees (like trash) if applicable. Its unclear whether you factored in all the parameters when you decided that you got a good deal. It seems like most first time investors don’t take all the costs into account and end up losing money because of it. There are experts on this site who can break down the details much better than I can.

Once you plug in the right numbers, then you can more accurately calculate the expected return on your investment. Then its up to you to decide if that’s a good return or not.

I certainly won’t press you to review personal information that you’re not comfortable sharing. At this point, telling us what numbers you used for vacancy rate, maintenace, etc and telling us your rate of return would basically give away the price you paid. I guess we’ll have to leave it at that. Hopefully, you took all the expenses into account and truly did get a good deal. If so, then we may be getting to the point where there are good buying opportunities again.

[ltokuda]

felix, the reason I ask is that a lot of people on Piggington’s believe that the “ultimate” bottom of the market is when you can buy a property with N % down, rent it out, and get a positive cash flow. If N = 20%, that’s pretty good. If N = 10%, that’s even better. If N = 5%, that’s fantastic. In theory, you should never be able to get to N = 0%. Providing real numbers would let people calculate the value of N for your house.

The other reason I ask is that the experienced rental property owners on this site have talked about “unexpected” costs of owning a rental unit. Besides financing, you have to consider taxes, maintenance, vacancy, insurance, and miscelaneous fees (like trash) if applicable. Its unclear whether you factored in all the parameters when you decided that you got a good deal. It seems like most first time investors don’t take all the costs into account and end up losing money because of it. There are experts on this site who can break down the details much better than I can.

Once you plug in the right numbers, then you can more accurately calculate the expected return on your investment. Then its up to you to decide if that’s a good return or not.

I certainly won’t press you to review personal information that you’re not comfortable sharing. At this point, telling us what numbers you used for vacancy rate, maintenace, etc and telling us your rate of return would basically give away the price you paid. I guess we’ll have to leave it at that. Hopefully, you took all the expenses into account and truly did get a good deal. If so, then we may be getting to the point where there are good buying opportunities again.

[felix]

Itokuda, you want me to go into info I consider private. I don’t think it should be too surprisingly that’s something I’m not going to do.

However, I will tell you I purchased with cash, that I purchased where I’d have minimal HOAs and no Mello-Roos.
Insurance is about $1500/yr and the home is in the San Diego area with ocean views.

May I ask you something?

What kind of return do you think is good to get on a financial instrument at this time?

And what other assets besides RE do you think would offer me both a good return and good potential for appreciation?

[felix]

Itokuda, you want me to go into info I consider private. I don’t think it should be too surprisingly that’s something I’m not going to do.

However, I will tell you I purchased with cash, that I purchased where I’d have minimal HOAs and no Mello-Roos.
Insurance is about $1500/yr and the home is in the San Diego area with ocean views.

May I ask you something?

What kind of return do you think is good to get on a financial instrument at this time?

And what other assets besides RE do you think would offer me both a good return and good potential for appreciation?

[felix]

Itokuda, you want me to go into info I consider private. I don’t think it should be too surprisingly that’s something I’m not going to do.

However, I will tell you I purchased with cash, that I purchased where I’d have minimal HOAs and no Mello-Roos.
Insurance is about $1500/yr and the home is in the San Diego area with ocean views.

May I ask you something?

What kind of return do you think is good to get on a financial instrument at this time?

And what other assets besides RE do you think would offer me both a good return and good potential for appreciation?

[felix]

Itokuda, you want me to go into info I consider private. I don’t think it should be too surprisingly that’s something I’m not going to do.

However, I will tell you I purchased with cash, that I purchased where I’d have minimal HOAs and no Mello-Roos.
Insurance is about $1500/yr and the home is in the San Diego area with ocean views.

May I ask you something?

What kind of return do you think is good to get on a financial instrument at this time?

And what other assets besides RE do you think would offer me both a good return and good potential for appreciation?

[ltokuda]

“I feel I have been able to get a great price on a 2nd home recently. It was the one I wanted in the neighborhood I wanted.”

“I was surprised to able to rent it for more than I could get by putting my money in other fixed income instruments. I was expecting only $3400/mo but got $3800/mo.. I’m sure others will be able to do the same as more and more people are being forced into the rental market.”

Hi Felix, if you were able to buy a house, rent it out, and get a better return than you would on a fixed income instrument, then you did very well. If you don’t mind sharing, I think a lot of people would be interested in learning more details about your purchase.

The basic questions are: How much did the house cost? How much is insurance? Mello-roos? If you took out a loan, was it a HELOC (where you could deduct the interest payments)? Is this house in California?

With this information, people here can work out the numbers for themselves. If it does work out favorably, I’m sure it will generate a lot of interest. Thanks!

[ltokuda]

“I feel I have been able to get a great price on a 2nd home recently. It was the one I wanted in the neighborhood I wanted.”

“I was surprised to able to rent it for more than I could get by putting my money in other fixed income instruments. I was expecting only $3400/mo but got $3800/mo.. I’m sure others will be able to do the same as more and more people are being forced into the rental market.”

Hi Felix, if you were able to buy a house, rent it out, and get a better return than you would on a fixed income instrument, then you did very well. If you don’t mind sharing, I think a lot of people would be interested in learning more details about your purchase.

The basic questions are: How much did the house cost? How much is insurance? Mello-roos? If you took out a loan, was it a HELOC (where you could deduct the interest payments)? Is this house in California?

With this information, people here can work out the numbers for themselves. If it does work out favorably, I’m sure it will generate a lot of interest. Thanks!

[ltokuda]

“I feel I have been able to get a great price on a 2nd home recently. It was the one I wanted in the neighborhood I wanted.”

“I was surprised to able to rent it for more than I could get by putting my money in other fixed income instruments. I was expecting only $3400/mo but got $3800/mo.. I’m sure others will be able to do the same as more and more people are being forced into the rental market.”

Hi Felix, if you were able to buy a house, rent it out, and get a better return than you would on a fixed income instrument, then you did very well. If you don’t mind sharing, I think a lot of people would be interested in learning more details about your purchase.

The basic questions are: How much did the house cost? How much is insurance? Mello-roos? If you took out a loan, was it a HELOC (where you could deduct the interest payments)? Is this house in California?

With this information, people here can work out the numbers for themselves. If it does work out favorably, I’m sure it will generate a lot of interest. Thanks!

[ltokuda]

“I feel I have been able to get a great price on a 2nd home recently. It was the one I wanted in the neighborhood I wanted.”

“I was surprised to able to rent it for more than I could get by putting my money in other fixed income instruments. I was expecting only $3400/mo but got $3800/mo.. I’m sure others will be able to do the same as more and more people are being forced into the rental market.”

Hi Felix, if you were able to buy a house, rent it out, and get a better return than you would on a fixed income instrument, then you did very well. If you don’t mind sharing, I think a lot of people would be interested in learning more details about your purchase.

The basic questions are: How much did the house cost? How much is insurance? Mello-roos? If you took out a loan, was it a HELOC (where you could deduct the interest payments)? Is this house in California?

With this information, people here can work out the numbers for themselves. If it does work out favorably, I’m sure it will generate a lot of interest. Thanks!

[felix]

How do you benefit or become richer from renting instead of owning unless rents are also coming down or unless you get the home you want at a price you can afford? Unfortunately if you wait too long to buy you not only won’t get the home you want but may get none at all.

The only ones directly losing money when home prices go down are those who are over extended and either have to sell or can no longer live off the equity in their depreciating home. The drop in the price of a neighbors foreclosed home doesn’t directly affect me unless I have to sell or I need the cash I can take from my equity.

As a long time stock trader I am used to watching markets. I know as markets near bottoms less and less trade occurs at the lowest prices. As the benefits(raising cash)of selling diminish only those who have to sell will sell. So as we near a housing bottom fewer and fewer homes will be available for the biggest reductions. That’s great if it’s the one you want and you get it.

If you are a renter waiting to buy and you miss out on the one you wanted or get no home at all what benefit did you get from the “sell off”?

I feel I have been able to get a great price on a 2nd home recently. It was the one I wanted in the neighborhood I wanted.

I was surprised to able to rent it for more than I could get by putting my money in other fixed income instruments. I was expecting only $3400/mo but got $3800/mo.. I’m sure others will be able to do the same as more and more people are being forced into the rental market.

Remember down turns don’t last forever and that you don’t need to get the bottom tick to get a great deal.

An old market adage says, only thing worse than buying (or selling) too early is trying to buy (or sell)too late.

[felix]

How do you benefit or become richer from renting instead of owning unless rents are also coming down or unless you get the home you want at a price you can afford? Unfortunately if you wait too long to buy you not only won’t get the home you want but may get none at all.

The only ones directly losing money when home prices go down are those who are over extended and either have to sell or can no longer live off the equity in their depreciating home. The drop in the price of a neighbors foreclosed home doesn’t directly affect me unless I have to sell or I need the cash I can take from my equity.

As a long time stock trader I am used to watching markets. I know as markets near bottoms less and less trade occurs at the lowest prices. As the benefits(raising cash)of selling diminish only those who have to sell will sell. So as we near a housing bottom fewer and fewer homes will be available for the biggest reductions. That’s great if it’s the one you want and you get it.

If you are a renter waiting to buy and you miss out on the one you wanted or get no home at all what benefit did you get from the “sell off”?

I feel I have been able to get a great price on a 2nd home recently. It was the one I wanted in the neighborhood I wanted.

I was surprised to able to rent it for more than I could get by putting my money in other fixed income instruments. I was expecting only $3400/mo but got $3800/mo.. I’m sure others will be able to do the same as more and more people are being forced into the rental market.

Remember down turns don’t last forever and that you don’t need to get the bottom tick to get a great deal.

An old market adage says, only thing worse than buying (or selling) too early is trying to buy (or sell)too late.

[felix]

How do you benefit or become richer from renting instead of owning unless rents are also coming down or unless you get the home you want at a price you can afford? Unfortunately if you wait too long to buy you not only won’t get the home you want but may get none at all.

The only ones directly losing money when home prices go down are those who are over extended and either have to sell or can no longer live off the equity in their depreciating home. The drop in the price of a neighbors foreclosed home doesn’t directly affect me unless I have to sell or I need the cash I can take from my equity.

As a long time stock trader I am used to watching markets. I know as markets near bottoms less and less trade occurs at the lowest prices. As the benefits(raising cash)of selling diminish only those who have to sell will sell. So as we near a housing bottom fewer and fewer homes will be available for the biggest reductions. That’s great if it’s the one you want and you get it.

If you are a renter waiting to buy and you miss out on the one you wanted or get no home at all what benefit did you get from the “sell off”?

I feel I have been able to get a great price on a 2nd home recently. It was the one I wanted in the neighborhood I wanted.

I was surprised to able to rent it for more than I could get by putting my money in other fixed income instruments. I was expecting only $3400/mo but got $3800/mo.. I’m sure others will be able to do the same as more and more people are being forced into the rental market.

Remember down turns don’t last forever and that you don’t need to get the bottom tick to get a great deal.

An old market adage says, only thing worse than buying (or selling) too early is trying to buy (or sell)too late.

[felix]

How do you benefit or become richer from renting instead of owning unless rents are also coming down or unless you get the home you want at a price you can afford? Unfortunately if you wait too long to buy you not only won’t get the home you want but may get none at all.

The only ones directly losing money when home prices go down are those who are over extended and either have to sell or can no longer live off the equity in their depreciating home. The drop in the price of a neighbors foreclosed home doesn’t directly affect me unless I have to sell or I need the cash I can take from my equity.

As a long time stock trader I am used to watching markets. I know as markets near bottoms less and less trade occurs at the lowest prices. As the benefits(raising cash)of selling diminish only those who have to sell will sell. So as we near a housing bottom fewer and fewer homes will be available for the biggest reductions. That’s great if it’s the one you want and you get it.

If you are a renter waiting to buy and you miss out on the one you wanted or get no home at all what benefit did you get from the “sell off”?

I feel I have been able to get a great price on a 2nd home recently. It was the one I wanted in the neighborhood I wanted.

I was surprised to able to rent it for more than I could get by putting my money in other fixed income instruments. I was expecting only $3400/mo but got $3800/mo.. I’m sure others will be able to do the same as more and more people are being forced into the rental market.

Remember down turns don’t last forever and that you don’t need to get the bottom tick to get a great deal.

An old market adage says, only thing worse than buying (or selling) too early is trying to buy (or sell)too late.

[temeculaguy]

I for one am getting richer with every tick down in the market and I can thank my lurker days on this site for aiding in my decision. My income, like many, is stable so with each 10k or 20k reduction in the price of homes, my future monthly disposable income goes up. 2 years ago I was walking around woth a chunk of change to put down on a house and I had owned homes for 20 years so I thought I was supposed to buy and was about to take on a 3k mortgage but lurking here prevented me. A year ago I could have gotten the same house for 2500 but my fellow piggs talked me out of it, four months ago they did it again at 2k, now I can get a nicer house for 1500, yet I sit. Most of the properties I was looking at over the summer have been reduced 25% in the last six months. When you look at all the constant expenses (utilities, food, clothing, savings, vehicle) and you cut your housing expenses in half, you are richer. A lot of flippers got rich 3 years ago, why can’t us reverse flippers get rich now? This renting thing ain’t half bad anyway. I have a nice place, I have money coming out of my a**, I pay cash for everything, I always buy my employees lunch and I always buy the drinks with friends, yet I’m the only renter and I still save more than ever before. Every day I go to redfin and see how much cheaper the new listings are or how much previous listings have been reduced. This is a blast. In the end, Tony Robbins is going to have to pay retail for my book, “getting rich through apathy” or “Zero habits for highly effective people.”

[temeculaguy]

I for one am getting richer with every tick down in the market and I can thank my lurker days on this site for aiding in my decision. My income, like many, is stable so with each 10k or 20k reduction in the price of homes, my future monthly disposable income goes up. 2 years ago I was walking around woth a chunk of change to put down on a house and I had owned homes for 20 years so I thought I was supposed to buy and was about to take on a 3k mortgage but lurking here prevented me. A year ago I could have gotten the same house for 2500 but my fellow piggs talked me out of it, four months ago they did it again at 2k, now I can get a nicer house for 1500, yet I sit. Most of the properties I was looking at over the summer have been reduced 25% in the last six months. When you look at all the constant expenses (utilities, food, clothing, savings, vehicle) and you cut your housing expenses in half, you are richer. A lot of flippers got rich 3 years ago, why can’t us reverse flippers get rich now? This renting thing ain’t half bad anyway. I have a nice place, I have money coming out of my a**, I pay cash for everything, I always buy my employees lunch and I always buy the drinks with friends, yet I’m the only renter and I still save more than ever before. Every day I go to redfin and see how much cheaper the new listings are or how much previous listings have been reduced. This is a blast. In the end, Tony Robbins is going to have to pay retail for my book, “getting rich through apathy” or “Zero habits for highly effective people.”

[temeculaguy]

I for one am getting richer with every tick down in the market and I can thank my lurker days on this site for aiding in my decision. My income, like many, is stable so with each 10k or 20k reduction in the price of homes, my future monthly disposable income goes up. 2 years ago I was walking around woth a chunk of change to put down on a house and I had owned homes for 20 years so I thought I was supposed to buy and was about to take on a 3k mortgage but lurking here prevented me. A year ago I could have gotten the same house for 2500 but my fellow piggs talked me out of it, four months ago they did it again at 2k, now I can get a nicer house for 1500, yet I sit. Most of the properties I was looking at over the summer have been reduced 25% in the last six months. When you look at all the constant expenses (utilities, food, clothing, savings, vehicle) and you cut your housing expenses in half, you are richer. A lot of flippers got rich 3 years ago, why can’t us reverse flippers get rich now? This renting thing ain’t half bad anyway. I have a nice place, I have money coming out of my a**, I pay cash for everything, I always buy my employees lunch and I always buy the drinks with friends, yet I’m the only renter and I still save more than ever before. Every day I go to redfin and see how much cheaper the new listings are or how much previous listings have been reduced. This is a blast. In the end, Tony Robbins is going to have to pay retail for my book, “getting rich through apathy” or “Zero habits for highly effective people.”

[temeculaguy]

I for one am getting richer with every tick down in the market and I can thank my lurker days on this site for aiding in my decision. My income, like many, is stable so with each 10k or 20k reduction in the price of homes, my future monthly disposable income goes up. 2 years ago I was walking around woth a chunk of change to put down on a house and I had owned homes for 20 years so I thought I was supposed to buy and was about to take on a 3k mortgage but lurking here prevented me. A year ago I could have gotten the same house for 2500 but my fellow piggs talked me out of it, four months ago they did it again at 2k, now I can get a nicer house for 1500, yet I sit. Most of the properties I was looking at over the summer have been reduced 25% in the last six months. When you look at all the constant expenses (utilities, food, clothing, savings, vehicle) and you cut your housing expenses in half, you are richer. A lot of flippers got rich 3 years ago, why can’t us reverse flippers get rich now? This renting thing ain’t half bad anyway. I have a nice place, I have money coming out of my a**, I pay cash for everything, I always buy my employees lunch and I always buy the drinks with friends, yet I’m the only renter and I still save more than ever before. Every day I go to redfin and see how much cheaper the new listings are or how much previous listings have been reduced. This is a blast. In the end, Tony Robbins is going to have to pay retail for my book, “getting rich through apathy” or “Zero habits for highly effective people.”

[masayako]

I agree. In general, anyone buy after year 2000 in SD are most likely overpaying for their homes.

[masayako]

I agree. In general, anyone buy after year 2000 in SD are most likely overpaying for their homes.

[masayako]

I agree. In general, anyone buy after year 2000 in SD are most likely overpaying for their homes.

[masayako]

I agree. In general, anyone buy after year 2000 in SD are most likely overpaying for their homes.

[sdduuuude]

Housing and beef are very different.
Beef is an expense. Houses are assets.

It is good when things we need to buy decrease in price, but bad when things we already own decrease. You don’t really own beef. You consume it. So, the need to buy it is perpetual. Not so with a house.

When Schiller says “we are all richer” really, he really means, “those who yet need to buy a house are richer”

Those who have already bought one are not.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD
“When Schiller says “we are all richer” really, he really means, “those who yet need to buy a house are richer”
Those who have already bought one are not”

You just described the essence of denial that a lot of people still have…even those who post here.

[sdduuuude]

JWM – not sure what you are saying here. I am in some sort of denial?

Also, Schiller said ” we can buy more housing ”
But – do we really need more housing ?

[patientlywaiting]

JWM, I love your terse comments. Others many not get it, but I do. 🙂

Felix, yeah, overnight, all the inventory of foreclosures, short-sales, distress sales will be all gone. Poof!! Don’t wait another day! Buy now before you miss out!!

I believe that Shiller said that we are richer, as a society, when housing prices drop. He’s looking at it from a macro perspective. The wealth of nations is based on the standard of living of the citizens. If you own and live in an old decrepit apartment in New York or Moscow with bad heat, you might have paper wealth, but your standard of living is low. That’s the context in which “rich” needs to be understood.

[felix]

patiently, I hope you and others here praying for a collapse get the homes you want for the prices you seek. I have and I’m currently able to rent it out for a great return on my money and solid potential for asset appreciation. It’s leased for the next 18 months. I have little doubt that this downturn will be well over by then.

Also it’s not just whether you get a home or not but whether you get the home you desire. One day and, as I’ve said, probably not as far off as you think, this back log of homes will be cleared. Many will miss out.

[felix]

patiently, I hope you and others here praying for a collapse get the homes you want for the prices you seek. I have and I’m currently able to rent it out for a great return on my money and solid potential for asset appreciation. It’s leased for the next 18 months. I have little doubt that this downturn will be well over by then.

Also it’s not just whether you get a home or not but whether you get the home you desire. One day and, as I’ve said, probably not as far off as you think, this back log of homes will be cleared. Many will miss out.

[felix]

patiently, I hope you and others here praying for a collapse get the homes you want for the prices you seek. I have and I’m currently able to rent it out for a great return on my money and solid potential for asset appreciation. It’s leased for the next 18 months. I have little doubt that this downturn will be well over by then.

Also it’s not just whether you get a home or not but whether you get the home you desire. One day and, as I’ve said, probably not as far off as you think, this back log of homes will be cleared. Many will miss out.

[felix]

patiently, I hope you and others here praying for a collapse get the homes you want for the prices you seek. I have and I’m currently able to rent it out for a great return on my money and solid potential for asset appreciation. It’s leased for the next 18 months. I have little doubt that this downturn will be well over by then.

Also it’s not just whether you get a home or not but whether you get the home you desire. One day and, as I’ve said, probably not as far off as you think, this back log of homes will be cleared. Many will miss out.

[felix]

patiently, I hope you and others here praying for a collapse get the homes you want for the prices you seek. I have and I’m currently able to rent it out for a great return on my money and solid potential for asset appreciation. It’s leased for the next 18 months. I have little doubt that this downturn will be well over by then.

Also it’s not just whether you get a home or not but whether you get the home you desire. One day and, as I’ve said, probably not as far off as you think, this back log of homes will be cleared. Many will miss out.

[patientlywaiting]

JWM, I love your terse comments. Others many not get it, but I do. 🙂

Felix, yeah, overnight, all the inventory of foreclosures, short-sales, distress sales will be all gone. Poof!! Don’t wait another day! Buy now before you miss out!!

I believe that Shiller said that we are richer, as a society, when housing prices drop. He’s looking at it from a macro perspective. The wealth of nations is based on the standard of living of the citizens. If you own and live in an old decrepit apartment in New York or Moscow with bad heat, you might have paper wealth, but your standard of living is low. That’s the context in which “rich” needs to be understood.

[patientlywaiting]

JWM, I love your terse comments. Others many not get it, but I do. 🙂

Felix, yeah, overnight, all the inventory of foreclosures, short-sales, distress sales will be all gone. Poof!! Don’t wait another day! Buy now before you miss out!!

I believe that Shiller said that we are richer, as a society, when housing prices drop. He’s looking at it from a macro perspective. The wealth of nations is based on the standard of living of the citizens. If you own and live in an old decrepit apartment in New York or Moscow with bad heat, you might have paper wealth, but your standard of living is low. That’s the context in which “rich” needs to be understood.

[patientlywaiting]

JWM, I love your terse comments. Others many not get it, but I do. 🙂

Felix, yeah, overnight, all the inventory of foreclosures, short-sales, distress sales will be all gone. Poof!! Don’t wait another day! Buy now before you miss out!!

I believe that Shiller said that we are richer, as a society, when housing prices drop. He’s looking at it from a macro perspective. The wealth of nations is based on the standard of living of the citizens. If you own and live in an old decrepit apartment in New York or Moscow with bad heat, you might have paper wealth, but your standard of living is low. That’s the context in which “rich” needs to be understood.

[patientlywaiting]

JWM, I love your terse comments. Others many not get it, but I do. 🙂

Felix, yeah, overnight, all the inventory of foreclosures, short-sales, distress sales will be all gone. Poof!! Don’t wait another day! Buy now before you miss out!!

I believe that Shiller said that we are richer, as a society, when housing prices drop. He’s looking at it from a macro perspective. The wealth of nations is based on the standard of living of the citizens. If you own and live in an old decrepit apartment in New York or Moscow with bad heat, you might have paper wealth, but your standard of living is low. That’s the context in which “rich” needs to be understood.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

Sduuude,

No, I just meant that you touched on a major reason why most are still in denial about losing HPA soon.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

Sduuude,

No, I just meant that you touched on a major reason why most are still in denial about losing HPA soon.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

Sduuude,

No, I just meant that you touched on a major reason why most are still in denial about losing HPA soon.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

Sduuude,

No, I just meant that you touched on a major reason why most are still in denial about losing HPA soon.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD

Sduuude,

No, I just meant that you touched on a major reason why most are still in denial about losing HPA soon.

[sdduuuude]

JWM – not sure what you are saying here. I am in some sort of denial?

Also, Schiller said ” we can buy more housing ”
But – do we really need more housing ?

[sdduuuude]

JWM – not sure what you are saying here. I am in some sort of denial?

Also, Schiller said ” we can buy more housing ”
But – do we really need more housing ?

[sdduuuude]

JWM – not sure what you are saying here. I am in some sort of denial?

Also, Schiller said ” we can buy more housing ”
But – do we really need more housing ?

[sdduuuude]

JWM – not sure what you are saying here. I am in some sort of denial?

Also, Schiller said ” we can buy more housing ”
But – do we really need more housing ?

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD
“When Schiller says “we are all richer” really, he really means, “those who yet need to buy a house are richer”
Those who have already bought one are not”

You just described the essence of denial that a lot of people still have…even those who post here.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD
“When Schiller says “we are all richer” really, he really means, “those who yet need to buy a house are richer”
Those who have already bought one are not”

You just described the essence of denial that a lot of people still have…even those who post here.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD
“When Schiller says “we are all richer” really, he really means, “those who yet need to buy a house are richer”
Those who have already bought one are not”

You just described the essence of denial that a lot of people still have…even those who post here.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD
“When Schiller says “we are all richer” really, he really means, “those who yet need to buy a house are richer”
Those who have already bought one are not”

You just described the essence of denial that a lot of people still have…even those who post here.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD
“When Schiller says “we are all richer” really, he really means, “those who yet need to buy a house are richer”
Those who have already bought one are not”

You just described the essence of denial that a lot of people still have…even those who post here.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD
“When Schiller says “we are all richer” really, he really means, “those who yet need to buy a house are richer”
Those who have already bought one are not”

You just described the essence of denial that a lot of people still have…even those who post here.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD
“When Schiller says “we are all richer” really, he really means, “those who yet need to buy a house are richer”
Those who have already bought one are not”

You just described the essence of denial that a lot of people still have…even those who post here.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD
“When Schiller says “we are all richer” really, he really means, “those who yet need to buy a house are richer”
Those who have already bought one are not”

You just described the essence of denial that a lot of people still have…even those who post here.

[JWM in SD]

JWM in SD
“When Schiller says “we are all richer” really, he really means, “those who yet need to buy a house are richer”
Those who have already bought one are not”

You just described the essence of denial that a lot of people still have…even those who post here.

[sdduuuude]

Housing and beef are very different.
Beef is an expense. Houses are assets.

It is good when things we need to buy decrease in price, but bad when things we already own decrease. You don’t really own beef. You consume it. So, the need to buy it is perpetual. Not so with a house.

When Schiller says “we are all richer” really, he really means, “those who yet need to buy a house are richer”

Those who have already bought one are not.

[sdduuuude]

Housing and beef are very different.
Beef is an expense. Houses are assets.

It is good when things we need to buy decrease in price, but bad when things we already own decrease. You don’t really own beef. You consume it. So, the need to buy it is perpetual. Not so with a house.

When Schiller says “we are all richer” really, he really means, “those who yet need to buy a house are richer”

Those who have already bought one are not.

[sdduuuude]

Housing and beef are very different.
Beef is an expense. Houses are assets.

It is good when things we need to buy decrease in price, but bad when things we already own decrease. You don’t really own beef. You consume it. So, the need to buy it is perpetual. Not so with a house.

When Schiller says “we are all richer” really, he really means, “those who yet need to buy a house are richer”

Those who have already bought one are not.

[sdduuuude]

Housing and beef are very different.
Beef is an expense. Houses are assets.

It is good when things we need to buy decrease in price, but bad when things we already own decrease. You don’t really own beef. You consume it. So, the need to buy it is perpetual. Not so with a house.

When Schiller says “we are all richer” really, he really means, “those who yet need to buy a house are richer”

Those who have already bought one are not.

[DoJC]

I’m betting that a LOT of people fell into the trap of a house being an investment that would appreciate at a rate of 10-30% annually. They don’t want to look at their house dropping in value as that would lead them to take a cold, hard look in the mirror and either admit they were wrong, or admit they got taken. Neither is particularly appetizing, and telling your family that you gambled with their home and lost badly isn’t a good thing to have to face.

Also, Shiller’s discourse is only aimed at those who don’t already own a home. Dropping home values, even small ones, make it more difficult to sell a home and make the person poorer since they paid more for the home than they can currently sell it for.

– Doug

[DoJC]

I’m betting that a LOT of people fell into the trap of a house being an investment that would appreciate at a rate of 10-30% annually. They don’t want to look at their house dropping in value as that would lead them to take a cold, hard look in the mirror and either admit they were wrong, or admit they got taken. Neither is particularly appetizing, and telling your family that you gambled with their home and lost badly isn’t a good thing to have to face.

Also, Shiller’s discourse is only aimed at those who don’t already own a home. Dropping home values, even small ones, make it more difficult to sell a home and make the person poorer since they paid more for the home than they can currently sell it for.

– Doug

[DoJC]

I’m betting that a LOT of people fell into the trap of a house being an investment that would appreciate at a rate of 10-30% annually. They don’t want to look at their house dropping in value as that would lead them to take a cold, hard look in the mirror and either admit they were wrong, or admit they got taken. Neither is particularly appetizing, and telling your family that you gambled with their home and lost badly isn’t a good thing to have to face.

Also, Shiller’s discourse is only aimed at those who don’t already own a home. Dropping home values, even small ones, make it more difficult to sell a home and make the person poorer since they paid more for the home than they can currently sell it for.

– Doug

[DoJC]

I’m betting that a LOT of people fell into the trap of a house being an investment that would appreciate at a rate of 10-30% annually. They don’t want to look at their house dropping in value as that would lead them to take a cold, hard look in the mirror and either admit they were wrong, or admit they got taken. Neither is particularly appetizing, and telling your family that you gambled with their home and lost badly isn’t a good thing to have to face.

Also, Shiller’s discourse is only aimed at those who don’t already own a home. Dropping home values, even small ones, make it more difficult to sell a home and make the person poorer since they paid more for the home than they can currently sell it for.

– Doug

[DoJC]

I’m betting that a LOT of people fell into the trap of a house being an investment that would appreciate at a rate of 10-30% annually. They don’t want to look at their house dropping in value as that would lead them to take a cold, hard look in the mirror and either admit they were wrong, or admit they got taken. Neither is particularly appetizing, and telling your family that you gambled with their home and lost badly isn’t a good thing to have to face.

Also, Shiller’s discourse is only aimed at those who don’t already own a home. Dropping home values, even small ones, make it more difficult to sell a home and make the person poorer since they paid more for the home than they can currently sell it for.

– Doug

[kewp]

The problem with Shiller’s point is incomes will not stay at their current levels.

Wages are deflating when factored for inflation. Unemployment is going up. This trend is not going to change any time soon.

So yeah, in a decade when the economy recovers, their should be plenty of cheap houses for people to buy. If they haven’t burned down or been bulldozed by HUD, that is.

[temeculaguy]

Felix, sorry my pals beat you up, it was obvious that you were trying to protect us from missing out on the extremely short window of bargains that you obviously got lucky and took advantage of.

Speaking of advice, I’ve been trying to figure out how to minimize the risk of missing out on a real estate bargain before all the prices shoot up, I’ve started with trying to reduce my blinking. I’ve tried real hard but I can’t seem to prevent my eyes from blinking. Should I work on blinking faster or less often? It seems the more I think about it, the more I blink. I would hate to blink too long and the 11 months of inventory vanishes because I held a particular blink too long. Apparently I don’t have much time to figure out how to curb this pesky blinking problem, it seems that instead of the prices falling 10-20k a month, inventory rising to record highs and foreclosures setting new records every day, it will reverse course within seconds and all the good ones will be gone. I’m getting pretty nervous, perhaps toothpicks or tape will work, maybe there is still time since not a single one of the over 1400 homes for sale in my zip code has risen in price in the last year, but nearly all have been reduced. Hopefully I won’t be blinking when someone swoops in and buys them all for three times the asking price, since what happens in a Colorado Ski resort town is completely relevent to the bubbliest market in the world. But then again since timing the bottom cannot be done, I should ignore everything and buy now, because, well, you did.

P.S. you said “Renters like TG,” thank you, I now finally feel like the market novice that I am, I was getting so full of myself, the twenty years of owning real estate and the formal education in economics was truly going to my head, my strategic removal from the R/E market was actually a veiled fear of responsibility and insecurity hanging with you rich business moguls, I feel more self aware now, I feel better, Thank You.

[hipmatt]

Is felix serious? Hopefully he is a troll?

[hipmatt]

Is felix serious? Hopefully he is a troll?

[hipmatt]

Is felix serious? Hopefully he is a troll?

[hipmatt]

Is felix serious? Hopefully he is a troll?

[hipmatt]

Is felix serious? Hopefully he is a troll?

[Coronita]

TG,

I find duct tape works pretty well to prevent blinking. Just don't go overboard.

 http://www.boingboing.net/2007/08/14/robber-disguised-fac.html

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

TG,

I find duct tape works pretty well to prevent blinking. Just don't go overboard.

 http://www.boingboing.net/2007/08/14/robber-disguised-fac.html

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

TG,

I find duct tape works pretty well to prevent blinking. Just don't go overboard.

 http://www.boingboing.net/2007/08/14/robber-disguised-fac.html

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

TG,

I find duct tape works pretty well to prevent blinking. Just don't go overboard.

 http://www.boingboing.net/2007/08/14/robber-disguised-fac.html

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

TG,

I find duct tape works pretty well to prevent blinking. Just don't go overboard.

 http://www.boingboing.net/2007/08/14/robber-disguised-fac.html

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[felix]

TG, you seem to have some issues with my opinion. I didn’t intend to insult you by referring to you as a renter. And I certainly didn’t mean get you riled up over my opinion. I was just adding my opinion as an outsider looking at the San Diego RE market.

I only recently stumbled upon this blog after I purchased in the San Diego market. I found this blog to have a lot of local insight which I appreciated.

However, after reading much of what was written here, I thought I’d add what I as an outsider with cash sees as a great opportunity.

Clearly, you don’t like what I have to say or you think it’s ridiculous. That is fine.

Anyway, I hope you do get the home you want at the price you want.

[drunkle]

felix, could you start a new thread and post up some investment opportunities that you think are worthwhile?

as well, maybe even post ownership opportunities. never know, someone might find their dream home that way.

[kewp]

felix, could you start a new thread and post up some investment opportunities that you think are worthwhile?

Good idea, I’ll call my broker and create a leveraged hedge fund to short them.

Who wants in?

[felix]

kewp, you are in luck. There exists an ETF to short if you would like to:

ITB @ $18.99 iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund

Feel free to short it.

[kewp]

There exists an ETF to short if you would like to:

Feh. I’ve been in the ProShares double-inverse real estate and financial sector funds since they were incepted.

Since we are getting into ‘bailout’ territory I’ll probably take my money off the table now.

Thanks for the advice, tho.

[felix]

kewp,I appreciate the thanks but I didn’t really advice you to do anything. I suggested earlier it may make sense to maybe stop waiting for a drastic sell off if you are satisfied with getting a reasonable deal on a home and not wait for a steal that may not come.

It was you that requested something to short. I was just trying to help you out.

Now your implying that you don’t think shorting is wise since “we are getting into ‘bailout territory’. For what it is worth I agree with you on that as ridiculous as that point of view may be.

[felix]

kewp,I appreciate the thanks but I didn’t really advice you to do anything. I suggested earlier it may make sense to maybe stop waiting for a drastic sell off if you are satisfied with getting a reasonable deal on a home and not wait for a steal that may not come.

It was you that requested something to short. I was just trying to help you out.

Now your implying that you don’t think shorting is wise since “we are getting into ‘bailout territory’. For what it is worth I agree with you on that as ridiculous as that point of view may be.

[felix]

kewp,I appreciate the thanks but I didn’t really advice you to do anything. I suggested earlier it may make sense to maybe stop waiting for a drastic sell off if you are satisfied with getting a reasonable deal on a home and not wait for a steal that may not come.

It was you that requested something to short. I was just trying to help you out.

Now your implying that you don’t think shorting is wise since “we are getting into ‘bailout territory’. For what it is worth I agree with you on that as ridiculous as that point of view may be.

[felix]

kewp,I appreciate the thanks but I didn’t really advice you to do anything. I suggested earlier it may make sense to maybe stop waiting for a drastic sell off if you are satisfied with getting a reasonable deal on a home and not wait for a steal that may not come.

It was you that requested something to short. I was just trying to help you out.

Now your implying that you don’t think shorting is wise since “we are getting into ‘bailout territory’. For what it is worth I agree with you on that as ridiculous as that point of view may be.

[felix]

kewp,I appreciate the thanks but I didn’t really advice you to do anything. I suggested earlier it may make sense to maybe stop waiting for a drastic sell off if you are satisfied with getting a reasonable deal on a home and not wait for a steal that may not come.

It was you that requested something to short. I was just trying to help you out.

Now your implying that you don’t think shorting is wise since “we are getting into ‘bailout territory’. For what it is worth I agree with you on that as ridiculous as that point of view may be.

[kewp]

There exists an ETF to short if you would like to:

Feh. I’ve been in the ProShares double-inverse real estate and financial sector funds since they were incepted.

Since we are getting into ‘bailout’ territory I’ll probably take my money off the table now.

Thanks for the advice, tho.

[kewp]

There exists an ETF to short if you would like to:

Feh. I’ve been in the ProShares double-inverse real estate and financial sector funds since they were incepted.

Since we are getting into ‘bailout’ territory I’ll probably take my money off the table now.

Thanks for the advice, tho.

[kewp]

There exists an ETF to short if you would like to:

Feh. I’ve been in the ProShares double-inverse real estate and financial sector funds since they were incepted.

Since we are getting into ‘bailout’ territory I’ll probably take my money off the table now.

Thanks for the advice, tho.

[kewp]

There exists an ETF to short if you would like to:

Feh. I’ve been in the ProShares double-inverse real estate and financial sector funds since they were incepted.

Since we are getting into ‘bailout’ territory I’ll probably take my money off the table now.

Thanks for the advice, tho.

[felix]

kewp, you are in luck. There exists an ETF to short if you would like to:

ITB @ $18.99 iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund

Feel free to short it.

[felix]

kewp, you are in luck. There exists an ETF to short if you would like to:

ITB @ $18.99 iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund

Feel free to short it.

[felix]

kewp, you are in luck. There exists an ETF to short if you would like to:

ITB @ $18.99 iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund

Feel free to short it.

[felix]

kewp, you are in luck. There exists an ETF to short if you would like to:

ITB @ $18.99 iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund

Feel free to short it.

[kewp]

felix, could you start a new thread and post up some investment opportunities that you think are worthwhile?

Good idea, I’ll call my broker and create a leveraged hedge fund to short them.

Who wants in?

[kewp]

felix, could you start a new thread and post up some investment opportunities that you think are worthwhile?

Good idea, I’ll call my broker and create a leveraged hedge fund to short them.

Who wants in?

[kewp]

felix, could you start a new thread and post up some investment opportunities that you think are worthwhile?

Good idea, I’ll call my broker and create a leveraged hedge fund to short them.

Who wants in?

[kewp]

felix, could you start a new thread and post up some investment opportunities that you think are worthwhile?

Good idea, I’ll call my broker and create a leveraged hedge fund to short them.

Who wants in?

[felix]

Drunkle, I already have.

However, as has been pointed out by others, if one needs to extend themselves financially to do what I have,(if they even could with today’s borrowing rules), I also would not recommend doing so.

[drunkle]

felix:

when you say you already have, are you talking about the house you purchased and currently rent?

if so, i’m sure you’re aware that a sample size of one is insignificant.

with the generalizations you’ve made, i was hoping you might have more to speak of. frankly, i’m seeing prices coming back from the dream of unending and unlimited appreciation. well, everyone is… but i’m feeling ready to bite and the autumn lull might be the time. but if the market, the banks, the economy implodes before then, then of course i’ll put off.

i’m certainly not afraid of a rocket shot between now and then. but if you did have significant examples of good deals, it would be worth looking into. otherwise, your generalizations and platitudes are meaningless.

[drunkle]

felix:

when you say you already have, are you talking about the house you purchased and currently rent?

if so, i’m sure you’re aware that a sample size of one is insignificant.

with the generalizations you’ve made, i was hoping you might have more to speak of. frankly, i’m seeing prices coming back from the dream of unending and unlimited appreciation. well, everyone is… but i’m feeling ready to bite and the autumn lull might be the time. but if the market, the banks, the economy implodes before then, then of course i’ll put off.

i’m certainly not afraid of a rocket shot between now and then. but if you did have significant examples of good deals, it would be worth looking into. otherwise, your generalizations and platitudes are meaningless.

[drunkle]

felix:

when you say you already have, are you talking about the house you purchased and currently rent?

if so, i’m sure you’re aware that a sample size of one is insignificant.

with the generalizations you’ve made, i was hoping you might have more to speak of. frankly, i’m seeing prices coming back from the dream of unending and unlimited appreciation. well, everyone is… but i’m feeling ready to bite and the autumn lull might be the time. but if the market, the banks, the economy implodes before then, then of course i’ll put off.

i’m certainly not afraid of a rocket shot between now and then. but if you did have significant examples of good deals, it would be worth looking into. otherwise, your generalizations and platitudes are meaningless.

[drunkle]

felix:

when you say you already have, are you talking about the house you purchased and currently rent?

if so, i’m sure you’re aware that a sample size of one is insignificant.

with the generalizations you’ve made, i was hoping you might have more to speak of. frankly, i’m seeing prices coming back from the dream of unending and unlimited appreciation. well, everyone is… but i’m feeling ready to bite and the autumn lull might be the time. but if the market, the banks, the economy implodes before then, then of course i’ll put off.

i’m certainly not afraid of a rocket shot between now and then. but if you did have significant examples of good deals, it would be worth looking into. otherwise, your generalizations and platitudes are meaningless.

[drunkle]

felix:

when you say you already have, are you talking about the house you purchased and currently rent?

if so, i’m sure you’re aware that a sample size of one is insignificant.

with the generalizations you’ve made, i was hoping you might have more to speak of. frankly, i’m seeing prices coming back from the dream of unending and unlimited appreciation. well, everyone is… but i’m feeling ready to bite and the autumn lull might be the time. but if the market, the banks, the economy implodes before then, then of course i’ll put off.

i’m certainly not afraid of a rocket shot between now and then. but if you did have significant examples of good deals, it would be worth looking into. otherwise, your generalizations and platitudes are meaningless.

[felix]

Drunkle, I already have.

However, as has been pointed out by others, if one needs to extend themselves financially to do what I have,(if they even could with today’s borrowing rules), I also would not recommend doing so.

[felix]

Drunkle, I already have.

However, as has been pointed out by others, if one needs to extend themselves financially to do what I have,(if they even could with today’s borrowing rules), I also would not recommend doing so.

[felix]

Drunkle, I already have.

However, as has been pointed out by others, if one needs to extend themselves financially to do what I have,(if they even could with today’s borrowing rules), I also would not recommend doing so.

[felix]

Drunkle, I already have.

However, as has been pointed out by others, if one needs to extend themselves financially to do what I have,(if they even could with today’s borrowing rules), I also would not recommend doing so.

[drunkle]

felix, could you start a new thread and post up some investment opportunities that you think are worthwhile?

as well, maybe even post ownership opportunities. never know, someone might find their dream home that way.

[drunkle]

felix, could you start a new thread and post up some investment opportunities that you think are worthwhile?

as well, maybe even post ownership opportunities. never know, someone might find their dream home that way.

[drunkle]

felix, could you start a new thread and post up some investment opportunities that you think are worthwhile?

as well, maybe even post ownership opportunities. never know, someone might find their dream home that way.

[drunkle]

felix, could you start a new thread and post up some investment opportunities that you think are worthwhile?

as well, maybe even post ownership opportunities. never know, someone might find their dream home that way.

[felix]

TG, you seem to have some issues with my opinion. I didn’t intend to insult you by referring to you as a renter. And I certainly didn’t mean get you riled up over my opinion. I was just adding my opinion as an outsider looking at the San Diego RE market.

I only recently stumbled upon this blog after I purchased in the San Diego market. I found this blog to have a lot of local insight which I appreciated.

However, after reading much of what was written here, I thought I’d add what I as an outsider with cash sees as a great opportunity.

Clearly, you don’t like what I have to say or you think it’s ridiculous. That is fine.

Anyway, I hope you do get the home you want at the price you want.

[felix]

TG, you seem to have some issues with my opinion. I didn’t intend to insult you by referring to you as a renter. And I certainly didn’t mean get you riled up over my opinion. I was just adding my opinion as an outsider looking at the San Diego RE market.

I only recently stumbled upon this blog after I purchased in the San Diego market. I found this blog to have a lot of local insight which I appreciated.

However, after reading much of what was written here, I thought I’d add what I as an outsider with cash sees as a great opportunity.

Clearly, you don’t like what I have to say or you think it’s ridiculous. That is fine.

Anyway, I hope you do get the home you want at the price you want.

[felix]

TG, you seem to have some issues with my opinion. I didn’t intend to insult you by referring to you as a renter. And I certainly didn’t mean get you riled up over my opinion. I was just adding my opinion as an outsider looking at the San Diego RE market.

I only recently stumbled upon this blog after I purchased in the San Diego market. I found this blog to have a lot of local insight which I appreciated.

However, after reading much of what was written here, I thought I’d add what I as an outsider with cash sees as a great opportunity.

Clearly, you don’t like what I have to say or you think it’s ridiculous. That is fine.

Anyway, I hope you do get the home you want at the price you want.

[felix]

TG, you seem to have some issues with my opinion. I didn’t intend to insult you by referring to you as a renter. And I certainly didn’t mean get you riled up over my opinion. I was just adding my opinion as an outsider looking at the San Diego RE market.

I only recently stumbled upon this blog after I purchased in the San Diego market. I found this blog to have a lot of local insight which I appreciated.

However, after reading much of what was written here, I thought I’d add what I as an outsider with cash sees as a great opportunity.

Clearly, you don’t like what I have to say or you think it’s ridiculous. That is fine.

Anyway, I hope you do get the home you want at the price you want.

[temeculaguy]

Felix, sorry my pals beat you up, it was obvious that you were trying to protect us from missing out on the extremely short window of bargains that you obviously got lucky and took advantage of.

Speaking of advice, I’ve been trying to figure out how to minimize the risk of missing out on a real estate bargain before all the prices shoot up, I’ve started with trying to reduce my blinking. I’ve tried real hard but I can’t seem to prevent my eyes from blinking. Should I work on blinking faster or less often? It seems the more I think about it, the more I blink. I would hate to blink too long and the 11 months of inventory vanishes because I held a particular blink too long. Apparently I don’t have much time to figure out how to curb this pesky blinking problem, it seems that instead of the prices falling 10-20k a month, inventory rising to record highs and foreclosures setting new records every day, it will reverse course within seconds and all the good ones will be gone. I’m getting pretty nervous, perhaps toothpicks or tape will work, maybe there is still time since not a single one of the over 1400 homes for sale in my zip code has risen in price in the last year, but nearly all have been reduced. Hopefully I won’t be blinking when someone swoops in and buys them all for three times the asking price, since what happens in a Colorado Ski resort town is completely relevent to the bubbliest market in the world. But then again since timing the bottom cannot be done, I should ignore everything and buy now, because, well, you did.

P.S. you said “Renters like TG,” thank you, I now finally feel like the market novice that I am, I was getting so full of myself, the twenty years of owning real estate and the formal education in economics was truly going to my head, my strategic removal from the R/E market was actually a veiled fear of responsibility and insecurity hanging with you rich business moguls, I feel more self aware now, I feel better, Thank You.

[temeculaguy]

Felix, sorry my pals beat you up, it was obvious that you were trying to protect us from missing out on the extremely short window of bargains that you obviously got lucky and took advantage of.

Speaking of advice, I’ve been trying to figure out how to minimize the risk of missing out on a real estate bargain before all the prices shoot up, I’ve started with trying to reduce my blinking. I’ve tried real hard but I can’t seem to prevent my eyes from blinking. Should I work on blinking faster or less often? It seems the more I think about it, the more I blink. I would hate to blink too long and the 11 months of inventory vanishes because I held a particular blink too long. Apparently I don’t have much time to figure out how to curb this pesky blinking problem, it seems that instead of the prices falling 10-20k a month, inventory rising to record highs and foreclosures setting new records every day, it will reverse course within seconds and all the good ones will be gone. I’m getting pretty nervous, perhaps toothpicks or tape will work, maybe there is still time since not a single one of the over 1400 homes for sale in my zip code has risen in price in the last year, but nearly all have been reduced. Hopefully I won’t be blinking when someone swoops in and buys them all for three times the asking price, since what happens in a Colorado Ski resort town is completely relevent to the bubbliest market in the world. But then again since timing the bottom cannot be done, I should ignore everything and buy now, because, well, you did.

P.S. you said “Renters like TG,” thank you, I now finally feel like the market novice that I am, I was getting so full of myself, the twenty years of owning real estate and the formal education in economics was truly going to my head, my strategic removal from the R/E market was actually a veiled fear of responsibility and insecurity hanging with you rich business moguls, I feel more self aware now, I feel better, Thank You.

[temeculaguy]

Felix, sorry my pals beat you up, it was obvious that you were trying to protect us from missing out on the extremely short window of bargains that you obviously got lucky and took advantage of.

Speaking of advice, I’ve been trying to figure out how to minimize the risk of missing out on a real estate bargain before all the prices shoot up, I’ve started with trying to reduce my blinking. I’ve tried real hard but I can’t seem to prevent my eyes from blinking. Should I work on blinking faster or less often? It seems the more I think about it, the more I blink. I would hate to blink too long and the 11 months of inventory vanishes because I held a particular blink too long. Apparently I don’t have much time to figure out how to curb this pesky blinking problem, it seems that instead of the prices falling 10-20k a month, inventory rising to record highs and foreclosures setting new records every day, it will reverse course within seconds and all the good ones will be gone. I’m getting pretty nervous, perhaps toothpicks or tape will work, maybe there is still time since not a single one of the over 1400 homes for sale in my zip code has risen in price in the last year, but nearly all have been reduced. Hopefully I won’t be blinking when someone swoops in and buys them all for three times the asking price, since what happens in a Colorado Ski resort town is completely relevent to the bubbliest market in the world. But then again since timing the bottom cannot be done, I should ignore everything and buy now, because, well, you did.

P.S. you said “Renters like TG,” thank you, I now finally feel like the market novice that I am, I was getting so full of myself, the twenty years of owning real estate and the formal education in economics was truly going to my head, my strategic removal from the R/E market was actually a veiled fear of responsibility and insecurity hanging with you rich business moguls, I feel more self aware now, I feel better, Thank You.

[temeculaguy]

Felix, sorry my pals beat you up, it was obvious that you were trying to protect us from missing out on the extremely short window of bargains that you obviously got lucky and took advantage of.

Speaking of advice, I’ve been trying to figure out how to minimize the risk of missing out on a real estate bargain before all the prices shoot up, I’ve started with trying to reduce my blinking. I’ve tried real hard but I can’t seem to prevent my eyes from blinking. Should I work on blinking faster or less often? It seems the more I think about it, the more I blink. I would hate to blink too long and the 11 months of inventory vanishes because I held a particular blink too long. Apparently I don’t have much time to figure out how to curb this pesky blinking problem, it seems that instead of the prices falling 10-20k a month, inventory rising to record highs and foreclosures setting new records every day, it will reverse course within seconds and all the good ones will be gone. I’m getting pretty nervous, perhaps toothpicks or tape will work, maybe there is still time since not a single one of the over 1400 homes for sale in my zip code has risen in price in the last year, but nearly all have been reduced. Hopefully I won’t be blinking when someone swoops in and buys them all for three times the asking price, since what happens in a Colorado Ski resort town is completely relevent to the bubbliest market in the world. But then again since timing the bottom cannot be done, I should ignore everything and buy now, because, well, you did.

P.S. you said “Renters like TG,” thank you, I now finally feel like the market novice that I am, I was getting so full of myself, the twenty years of owning real estate and the formal education in economics was truly going to my head, my strategic removal from the R/E market was actually a veiled fear of responsibility and insecurity hanging with you rich business moguls, I feel more self aware now, I feel better, Thank You.

[kewp]

The problem with Shiller’s point is incomes will not stay at their current levels.

Wages are deflating when factored for inflation. Unemployment is going up. This trend is not going to change any time soon.

So yeah, in a decade when the economy recovers, their should be plenty of cheap houses for people to buy. If they haven’t burned down or been bulldozed by HUD, that is.

[kewp]

The problem with Shiller’s point is incomes will not stay at their current levels.

Wages are deflating when factored for inflation. Unemployment is going up. This trend is not going to change any time soon.

So yeah, in a decade when the economy recovers, their should be plenty of cheap houses for people to buy. If they haven’t burned down or been bulldozed by HUD, that is.

[kewp]

The problem with Shiller’s point is incomes will not stay at their current levels.

Wages are deflating when factored for inflation. Unemployment is going up. This trend is not going to change any time soon.

So yeah, in a decade when the economy recovers, their should be plenty of cheap houses for people to buy. If they haven’t burned down or been bulldozed by HUD, that is.

[kewp]

The problem with Shiller’s point is incomes will not stay at their current levels.

Wages are deflating when factored for inflation. Unemployment is going up. This trend is not going to change any time soon.

So yeah, in a decade when the economy recovers, their should be plenty of cheap houses for people to buy. If they haven’t burned down or been bulldozed by HUD, that is.

[OC Burns]

Why do people have have such visceral negative reactions to dropping house values?

Because they already own a home? Even if they have good cash flow, nobody likes to see their largest asset fall off a cliff.

What if they can afford to buy more home, and they can afford to stay and keep paying their current loan, but they cannot afford to sell because they’d have to realize a loss?

We bought in 2003 with 20% down and I can easily see this becoming the case in our situation.

[OC Burns]

Why do people have have such visceral negative reactions to dropping house values?

Because they already own a home? Even if they have good cash flow, nobody likes to see their largest asset fall off a cliff.

What if they can afford to buy more home, and they can afford to stay and keep paying their current loan, but they cannot afford to sell because they’d have to realize a loss?

We bought in 2003 with 20% down and I can easily see this becoming the case in our situation.

[OC Burns]

Why do people have have such visceral negative reactions to dropping house values?

Because they already own a home? Even if they have good cash flow, nobody likes to see their largest asset fall off a cliff.

What if they can afford to buy more home, and they can afford to stay and keep paying their current loan, but they cannot afford to sell because they’d have to realize a loss?

We bought in 2003 with 20% down and I can easily see this becoming the case in our situation.

[OC Burns]

Why do people have have such visceral negative reactions to dropping house values?

Because they already own a home? Even if they have good cash flow, nobody likes to see their largest asset fall off a cliff.

What if they can afford to buy more home, and they can afford to stay and keep paying their current loan, but they cannot afford to sell because they’d have to realize a loss?

We bought in 2003 with 20% down and I can easily see this becoming the case in our situation.

[OC Burns]

Why do people have have such visceral negative reactions to dropping house values?

Because they already own a home? Even if they have good cash flow, nobody likes to see their largest asset fall off a cliff.

What if they can afford to buy more home, and they can afford to stay and keep paying their current loan, but they cannot afford to sell because they’d have to realize a loss?

We bought in 2003 with 20% down and I can easily see this becoming the case in our situation.

[cr]

Shiller’s point though dependent on income growth is valid – it’s the silver lining our short-sighted political jesters fail to see: lower prices mean more people will actually be able to afford houses again.

Shiller is no doubt aware that incomes and jobs are on the decline as this bubble plays out, thus necessitating an even bigger drop in prices.

The question is when – most of us here have a target price in mind that we would consider buying at. For me, it’s still got a ways to go.

People bitter about prices dropping don’t understand that the value of their house is meaningless until they go to sell it. They either paid too much, can’t afford it now, or wish they had sold a year a half ago.

If you can actually afford your home long term, you have nothing to worry about.

[drunkle]

“lower prices mean more people will actually be able to afford houses again.”

is that actually a good thing? i thought we were trying to build an oligarchy here…

[drunkle]

“lower prices mean more people will actually be able to afford houses again.”

is that actually a good thing? i thought we were trying to build an oligarchy here…

[drunkle]

“lower prices mean more people will actually be able to afford houses again.”

is that actually a good thing? i thought we were trying to build an oligarchy here…

[drunkle]

“lower prices mean more people will actually be able to afford houses again.”

is that actually a good thing? i thought we were trying to build an oligarchy here…

[drunkle]

“lower prices mean more people will actually be able to afford houses again.”

is that actually a good thing? i thought we were trying to build an oligarchy here…

[cr]

Shiller’s point though dependent on income growth is valid – it’s the silver lining our short-sighted political jesters fail to see: lower prices mean more people will actually be able to afford houses again.

Shiller is no doubt aware that incomes and jobs are on the decline as this bubble plays out, thus necessitating an even bigger drop in prices.

The question is when – most of us here have a target price in mind that we would consider buying at. For me, it’s still got a ways to go.

People bitter about prices dropping don’t understand that the value of their house is meaningless until they go to sell it. They either paid too much, can’t afford it now, or wish they had sold a year a half ago.

If you can actually afford your home long term, you have nothing to worry about.

[cr]

Shiller’s point though dependent on income growth is valid – it’s the silver lining our short-sighted political jesters fail to see: lower prices mean more people will actually be able to afford houses again.

Shiller is no doubt aware that incomes and jobs are on the decline as this bubble plays out, thus necessitating an even bigger drop in prices.

The question is when – most of us here have a target price in mind that we would consider buying at. For me, it’s still got a ways to go.

People bitter about prices dropping don’t understand that the value of their house is meaningless until they go to sell it. They either paid too much, can’t afford it now, or wish they had sold a year a half ago.

If you can actually afford your home long term, you have nothing to worry about.

[cr]

Shiller’s point though dependent on income growth is valid – it’s the silver lining our short-sighted political jesters fail to see: lower prices mean more people will actually be able to afford houses again.

Shiller is no doubt aware that incomes and jobs are on the decline as this bubble plays out, thus necessitating an even bigger drop in prices.

The question is when – most of us here have a target price in mind that we would consider buying at. For me, it’s still got a ways to go.

People bitter about prices dropping don’t understand that the value of their house is meaningless until they go to sell it. They either paid too much, can’t afford it now, or wish they had sold a year a half ago.

If you can actually afford your home long term, you have nothing to worry about.

[cr]

Shiller’s point though dependent on income growth is valid – it’s the silver lining our short-sighted political jesters fail to see: lower prices mean more people will actually be able to afford houses again.

Shiller is no doubt aware that incomes and jobs are on the decline as this bubble plays out, thus necessitating an even bigger drop in prices.

The question is when – most of us here have a target price in mind that we would consider buying at. For me, it’s still got a ways to go.

People bitter about prices dropping don’t understand that the value of their house is meaningless until they go to sell it. They either paid too much, can’t afford it now, or wish they had sold a year a half ago.

If you can actually afford your home long term, you have nothing to worry about.

[ltokuda]

“There’s nothing troubling about a gradual correction of home prices.”

The key word here is “gradual”. If wages are stagnant, then this could mean a slow drop in home prices. Or if house prices are stagnant, then wage inflation could slowly makes the houses more affordable. This is a good thing.

If you’re a renter, then of course lower house prices are good for you. If you already bought a house, then price declines help you as well. It will lower your property tax, insurance, and probably lower the cost of remodeling as well.

Owners who are in a “must sell” situation would be hurt in the near term. But the good news is that they will become renters again. So in the long run, they will also benefit from lower house prices (assuming they decide to buy again).

[ltokuda]

“There’s nothing troubling about a gradual correction of home prices.”

The key word here is “gradual”. If wages are stagnant, then this could mean a slow drop in home prices. Or if house prices are stagnant, then wage inflation could slowly makes the houses more affordable. This is a good thing.

If you’re a renter, then of course lower house prices are good for you. If you already bought a house, then price declines help you as well. It will lower your property tax, insurance, and probably lower the cost of remodeling as well.

Owners who are in a “must sell” situation would be hurt in the near term. But the good news is that they will become renters again. So in the long run, they will also benefit from lower house prices (assuming they decide to buy again).

[ltokuda]

“There’s nothing troubling about a gradual correction of home prices.”

The key word here is “gradual”. If wages are stagnant, then this could mean a slow drop in home prices. Or if house prices are stagnant, then wage inflation could slowly makes the houses more affordable. This is a good thing.

If you’re a renter, then of course lower house prices are good for you. If you already bought a house, then price declines help you as well. It will lower your property tax, insurance, and probably lower the cost of remodeling as well.

Owners who are in a “must sell” situation would be hurt in the near term. But the good news is that they will become renters again. So in the long run, they will also benefit from lower house prices (assuming they decide to buy again).

[ltokuda]

“There’s nothing troubling about a gradual correction of home prices.”

The key word here is “gradual”. If wages are stagnant, then this could mean a slow drop in home prices. Or if house prices are stagnant, then wage inflation could slowly makes the houses more affordable. This is a good thing.

If you’re a renter, then of course lower house prices are good for you. If you already bought a house, then price declines help you as well. It will lower your property tax, insurance, and probably lower the cost of remodeling as well.

Owners who are in a “must sell” situation would be hurt in the near term. But the good news is that they will become renters again. So in the long run, they will also benefit from lower house prices (assuming they decide to buy again).

[ltokuda]

“There’s nothing troubling about a gradual correction of home prices.”

The key word here is “gradual”. If wages are stagnant, then this could mean a slow drop in home prices. Or if house prices are stagnant, then wage inflation could slowly makes the houses more affordable. This is a good thing.

If you’re a renter, then of course lower house prices are good for you. If you already bought a house, then price declines help you as well. It will lower your property tax, insurance, and probably lower the cost of remodeling as well.

Owners who are in a “must sell” situation would be hurt in the near term. But the good news is that they will become renters again. So in the long run, they will also benefit from lower house prices (assuming they decide to buy again).

[sdduuuude]

The definition of the bottom: Your dream house has hit the price you always hoped it would, and yet you can’t afford it.

[drunkle]

he said he purchased with cash, n = 100%

[ltokuda]

“he said he purchased with cash, n = 100%”

Sorry for the confusion. I was actually talking about two things. I asked about how much of a downpayment felix made. He bought it in cash so his actual value of N is 100%.

The other thing I was trying to figure out was the theoretical minimum value of N (let’s call it “minN”) that he could have used and still generated a positive cash flow. If minN was 50%, then it probably wasn’t a good deal. If minN was 5%, then he probably got a great deal.

[drunkle]

i would (as posted by various posters here) look at the time value or opportunity value… if you’re cash neutral or positive with a rental, then using a downpayment allows you to make a profit on your opportunity… assuming you can find anything better to do with the money in this market…

[temeculaguy]

I didn’t mean to be overly sarcastic to you felix but you used a few too many realtor cliches and your posts still lack enough details for you to be validated and taken seriously. You don’t have to post the address or street name but tract or community name and ballpark price you paid will afford you some credibility, otherwise you are a realtor attempting to jumpstart the market, one blogger at a time. We piggs like case studies, math, etc. and it is very possible that you found a particular investment home that is valued correctly and somewhat insulated from further declines, we all will find ours at some point, different communities have been coming in line with fundamentals at different times, unfortunately the coastal properties have been the most stubborn, which is why you are being asked for specifics.

sdrealtor made a valid point about certain markets with limited offerings and custom homes in coastal areas do require the buyer think of the property availablity vs the timing. Tract homes and rentals do not fall into that category and are much more pure math equations.

The reason I was embittered by your plattitudes in essense saying it’s a great time to buy is that in certain Southern california markets, that statement is just not true, buying now is the worst thing you can do. Here’s where we will part ways, I’ll throw down some data and specific cases as to why waiting, each and every day, has rewards.

18 days on the market, reduced 17% in those 18 days, when first listed it was the cheapest house on the street, waiting saved the future buyer 50k

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1472071

This beauty came on the market today, 4000 sq ft, amost 100 a square, if you bought yesterday you would miss this record setter at more than 50% off it’s price in 2005 and now it is 47 cents on the dollar and the former model in one of the nicest subdivisions in my area, it’s presence just cost every house in the development 100k

It’s neighbor two doors away is a repo, wasn’t a model, is smaller and has a smaller lot. Despite the bank cutting 80k off it three weeks ago, they will need to chop another 100k to be in line with the one that just came up, why miss the fireworks and buy today or yesterday?

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1342782

Or this 20% (75k) drop that happened two days ago, still no sale, next month will probably bring another 75k off

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1387676

And finally this is a classic case of what almost every lising looks like that has been on the market for a few months. At each point you claim the bottom and at each point you would have thrown money in the toilet. This is what the market is doing, nothing indicates that it is slowing down. Below the map is the listing price history, for this one I’ll post it bt on the others, just scroll down.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1181669

Oct 02, 2007 $580,000
Oct 17, 2007 $575,000
Oct 30, 2007 $565,000
Nov 05, 2007 $545,000
Nov 09, 2007 $535,000
Nov 19, 2007 $500,000
Dec 11, 2007 $450,000
Jan 02, 2008 $435,000
Jan 11, 2008 $420,000
Jan 16, 2008 $390,000
Jan 25, 2008 $380,000
Feb 25, 2008 $350,000

Fundamentally this is a 2k a month rental so the 125x multiplier is 250k, at that point I will buy it, the 150x is 300k, at that point I’ll think about it, but anyone can say “now is a great time to buy,” prove it to me.

[temeculaguy]

Oh yeah i forgot this one, 30% decline in eight months

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=834917

Orignal price Sep 17, 2004 $503,500
Resale price Jun 15, 2006 $790,000
Repo to bank May 09, 2007 $670,306

Bank want’s their money back so they list at about what they were owed, it doesn’t sell and they lower until they find the market, guess what, they haven’t found it. At any price except the last one, if you were a buyer, you lost money and it is my belief that even the last price is incorrect, time will tell but I will bet that I will find reductions in March, not increases. In fact, in 8 months, it has gone down 227k, about a 30k monthly decline, which is more than 5% a month, what makes anyone believe that March/April it won’t go down to 420k, what is so confusing about this pattern that is repeated on every street, every day, what is it about this pattern that would make anyone think “O.K. that’s enough, it will all sell now.”

Jun 15, 2007 $667,500
Aug 21, 2007 $634,900
Sep 22, 2007 $595,000
Oct 23, 2007 $550,000
Nov 26, 2007 $523,900
Dec 31, 2007 $514,900
Feb 29, 2008 $450,000

[temeculaguy]

Oh yeah i forgot this one, 30% decline in eight months

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=834917

Orignal price Sep 17, 2004 $503,500
Resale price Jun 15, 2006 $790,000
Repo to bank May 09, 2007 $670,306

Bank want’s their money back so they list at about what they were owed, it doesn’t sell and they lower until they find the market, guess what, they haven’t found it. At any price except the last one, if you were a buyer, you lost money and it is my belief that even the last price is incorrect, time will tell but I will bet that I will find reductions in March, not increases. In fact, in 8 months, it has gone down 227k, about a 30k monthly decline, which is more than 5% a month, what makes anyone believe that March/April it won’t go down to 420k, what is so confusing about this pattern that is repeated on every street, every day, what is it about this pattern that would make anyone think “O.K. that’s enough, it will all sell now.”

Jun 15, 2007 $667,500
Aug 21, 2007 $634,900
Sep 22, 2007 $595,000
Oct 23, 2007 $550,000
Nov 26, 2007 $523,900
Dec 31, 2007 $514,900
Feb 29, 2008 $450,000

[temeculaguy]

Oh yeah i forgot this one, 30% decline in eight months

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=834917

Orignal price Sep 17, 2004 $503,500
Resale price Jun 15, 2006 $790,000
Repo to bank May 09, 2007 $670,306

Bank want’s their money back so they list at about what they were owed, it doesn’t sell and they lower until they find the market, guess what, they haven’t found it. At any price except the last one, if you were a buyer, you lost money and it is my belief that even the last price is incorrect, time will tell but I will bet that I will find reductions in March, not increases. In fact, in 8 months, it has gone down 227k, about a 30k monthly decline, which is more than 5% a month, what makes anyone believe that March/April it won’t go down to 420k, what is so confusing about this pattern that is repeated on every street, every day, what is it about this pattern that would make anyone think “O.K. that’s enough, it will all sell now.”

Jun 15, 2007 $667,500
Aug 21, 2007 $634,900
Sep 22, 2007 $595,000
Oct 23, 2007 $550,000
Nov 26, 2007 $523,900
Dec 31, 2007 $514,900
Feb 29, 2008 $450,000

[temeculaguy]

Oh yeah i forgot this one, 30% decline in eight months

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=834917

Orignal price Sep 17, 2004 $503,500
Resale price Jun 15, 2006 $790,000
Repo to bank May 09, 2007 $670,306

Bank want’s their money back so they list at about what they were owed, it doesn’t sell and they lower until they find the market, guess what, they haven’t found it. At any price except the last one, if you were a buyer, you lost money and it is my belief that even the last price is incorrect, time will tell but I will bet that I will find reductions in March, not increases. In fact, in 8 months, it has gone down 227k, about a 30k monthly decline, which is more than 5% a month, what makes anyone believe that March/April it won’t go down to 420k, what is so confusing about this pattern that is repeated on every street, every day, what is it about this pattern that would make anyone think “O.K. that’s enough, it will all sell now.”

Jun 15, 2007 $667,500
Aug 21, 2007 $634,900
Sep 22, 2007 $595,000
Oct 23, 2007 $550,000
Nov 26, 2007 $523,900
Dec 31, 2007 $514,900
Feb 29, 2008 $450,000

[temeculaguy]

Oh yeah i forgot this one, 30% decline in eight months

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=834917

Orignal price Sep 17, 2004 $503,500
Resale price Jun 15, 2006 $790,000
Repo to bank May 09, 2007 $670,306

Bank want’s their money back so they list at about what they were owed, it doesn’t sell and they lower until they find the market, guess what, they haven’t found it. At any price except the last one, if you were a buyer, you lost money and it is my belief that even the last price is incorrect, time will tell but I will bet that I will find reductions in March, not increases. In fact, in 8 months, it has gone down 227k, about a 30k monthly decline, which is more than 5% a month, what makes anyone believe that March/April it won’t go down to 420k, what is so confusing about this pattern that is repeated on every street, every day, what is it about this pattern that would make anyone think “O.K. that’s enough, it will all sell now.”

Jun 15, 2007 $667,500
Aug 21, 2007 $634,900
Sep 22, 2007 $595,000
Oct 23, 2007 $550,000
Nov 26, 2007 $523,900
Dec 31, 2007 $514,900
Feb 29, 2008 $450,000

[felix]

I see where you’re coming from here TG.

I purchased what would be considered a coastal property with ocean views. I certainly agree with your assessment that tract homes in newer subdivisions are different animals, at least, for the time being.

[felix]

I see where you’re coming from here TG.

I purchased what would be considered a coastal property with ocean views. I certainly agree with your assessment that tract homes in newer subdivisions are different animals, at least, for the time being.

[felix]

I see where you’re coming from here TG.

I purchased what would be considered a coastal property with ocean views. I certainly agree with your assessment that tract homes in newer subdivisions are different animals, at least, for the time being.

[felix]

I see where you’re coming from here TG.

I purchased what would be considered a coastal property with ocean views. I certainly agree with your assessment that tract homes in newer subdivisions are different animals, at least, for the time being.

[felix]

I see where you’re coming from here TG.

I purchased what would be considered a coastal property with ocean views. I certainly agree with your assessment that tract homes in newer subdivisions are different animals, at least, for the time being.

[temeculaguy]

I didn’t mean to be overly sarcastic to you felix but you used a few too many realtor cliches and your posts still lack enough details for you to be validated and taken seriously. You don’t have to post the address or street name but tract or community name and ballpark price you paid will afford you some credibility, otherwise you are a realtor attempting to jumpstart the market, one blogger at a time. We piggs like case studies, math, etc. and it is very possible that you found a particular investment home that is valued correctly and somewhat insulated from further declines, we all will find ours at some point, different communities have been coming in line with fundamentals at different times, unfortunately the coastal properties have been the most stubborn, which is why you are being asked for specifics.

sdrealtor made a valid point about certain markets with limited offerings and custom homes in coastal areas do require the buyer think of the property availablity vs the timing. Tract homes and rentals do not fall into that category and are much more pure math equations.

The reason I was embittered by your plattitudes in essense saying it’s a great time to buy is that in certain Southern california markets, that statement is just not true, buying now is the worst thing you can do. Here’s where we will part ways, I’ll throw down some data and specific cases as to why waiting, each and every day, has rewards.

18 days on the market, reduced 17% in those 18 days, when first listed it was the cheapest house on the street, waiting saved the future buyer 50k

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1472071

This beauty came on the market today, 4000 sq ft, amost 100 a square, if you bought yesterday you would miss this record setter at more than 50% off it’s price in 2005 and now it is 47 cents on the dollar and the former model in one of the nicest subdivisions in my area, it’s presence just cost every house in the development 100k

It’s neighbor two doors away is a repo, wasn’t a model, is smaller and has a smaller lot. Despite the bank cutting 80k off it three weeks ago, they will need to chop another 100k to be in line with the one that just came up, why miss the fireworks and buy today or yesterday?

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1342782

Or this 20% (75k) drop that happened two days ago, still no sale, next month will probably bring another 75k off

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1387676

And finally this is a classic case of what almost every lising looks like that has been on the market for a few months. At each point you claim the bottom and at each point you would have thrown money in the toilet. This is what the market is doing, nothing indicates that it is slowing down. Below the map is the listing price history, for this one I’ll post it bt on the others, just scroll down.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1181669

Oct 02, 2007 $580,000
Oct 17, 2007 $575,000
Oct 30, 2007 $565,000
Nov 05, 2007 $545,000
Nov 09, 2007 $535,000
Nov 19, 2007 $500,000
Dec 11, 2007 $450,000
Jan 02, 2008 $435,000
Jan 11, 2008 $420,000
Jan 16, 2008 $390,000
Jan 25, 2008 $380,000
Feb 25, 2008 $350,000

Fundamentally this is a 2k a month rental so the 125x multiplier is 250k, at that point I will buy it, the 150x is 300k, at that point I’ll think about it, but anyone can say “now is a great time to buy,” prove it to me.

[temeculaguy]

I didn’t mean to be overly sarcastic to you felix but you used a few too many realtor cliches and your posts still lack enough details for you to be validated and taken seriously. You don’t have to post the address or street name but tract or community name and ballpark price you paid will afford you some credibility, otherwise you are a realtor attempting to jumpstart the market, one blogger at a time. We piggs like case studies, math, etc. and it is very possible that you found a particular investment home that is valued correctly and somewhat insulated from further declines, we all will find ours at some point, different communities have been coming in line with fundamentals at different times, unfortunately the coastal properties have been the most stubborn, which is why you are being asked for specifics.

sdrealtor made a valid point about certain markets with limited offerings and custom homes in coastal areas do require the buyer think of the property availablity vs the timing. Tract homes and rentals do not fall into that category and are much more pure math equations.

The reason I was embittered by your plattitudes in essense saying it’s a great time to buy is that in certain Southern california markets, that statement is just not true, buying now is the worst thing you can do. Here’s where we will part ways, I’ll throw down some data and specific cases as to why waiting, each and every day, has rewards.

18 days on the market, reduced 17% in those 18 days, when first listed it was the cheapest house on the street, waiting saved the future buyer 50k

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1472071

This beauty came on the market today, 4000 sq ft, amost 100 a square, if you bought yesterday you would miss this record setter at more than 50% off it’s price in 2005 and now it is 47 cents on the dollar and the former model in one of the nicest subdivisions in my area, it’s presence just cost every house in the development 100k

It’s neighbor two doors away is a repo, wasn’t a model, is smaller and has a smaller lot. Despite the bank cutting 80k off it three weeks ago, they will need to chop another 100k to be in line with the one that just came up, why miss the fireworks and buy today or yesterday?

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1342782

Or this 20% (75k) drop that happened two days ago, still no sale, next month will probably bring another 75k off

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1387676

And finally this is a classic case of what almost every lising looks like that has been on the market for a few months. At each point you claim the bottom and at each point you would have thrown money in the toilet. This is what the market is doing, nothing indicates that it is slowing down. Below the map is the listing price history, for this one I’ll post it bt on the others, just scroll down.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1181669

Oct 02, 2007 $580,000
Oct 17, 2007 $575,000
Oct 30, 2007 $565,000
Nov 05, 2007 $545,000
Nov 09, 2007 $535,000
Nov 19, 2007 $500,000
Dec 11, 2007 $450,000
Jan 02, 2008 $435,000
Jan 11, 2008 $420,000
Jan 16, 2008 $390,000
Jan 25, 2008 $380,000
Feb 25, 2008 $350,000

Fundamentally this is a 2k a month rental so the 125x multiplier is 250k, at that point I will buy it, the 150x is 300k, at that point I’ll think about it, but anyone can say “now is a great time to buy,” prove it to me.

[temeculaguy]

I didn’t mean to be overly sarcastic to you felix but you used a few too many realtor cliches and your posts still lack enough details for you to be validated and taken seriously. You don’t have to post the address or street name but tract or community name and ballpark price you paid will afford you some credibility, otherwise you are a realtor attempting to jumpstart the market, one blogger at a time. We piggs like case studies, math, etc. and it is very possible that you found a particular investment home that is valued correctly and somewhat insulated from further declines, we all will find ours at some point, different communities have been coming in line with fundamentals at different times, unfortunately the coastal properties have been the most stubborn, which is why you are being asked for specifics.

sdrealtor made a valid point about certain markets with limited offerings and custom homes in coastal areas do require the buyer think of the property availablity vs the timing. Tract homes and rentals do not fall into that category and are much more pure math equations.

The reason I was embittered by your plattitudes in essense saying it’s a great time to buy is that in certain Southern california markets, that statement is just not true, buying now is the worst thing you can do. Here’s where we will part ways, I’ll throw down some data and specific cases as to why waiting, each and every day, has rewards.

18 days on the market, reduced 17% in those 18 days, when first listed it was the cheapest house on the street, waiting saved the future buyer 50k

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1472071

This beauty came on the market today, 4000 sq ft, amost 100 a square, if you bought yesterday you would miss this record setter at more than 50% off it’s price in 2005 and now it is 47 cents on the dollar and the former model in one of the nicest subdivisions in my area, it’s presence just cost every house in the development 100k

It’s neighbor two doors away is a repo, wasn’t a model, is smaller and has a smaller lot. Despite the bank cutting 80k off it three weeks ago, they will need to chop another 100k to be in line with the one that just came up, why miss the fireworks and buy today or yesterday?

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1342782

Or this 20% (75k) drop that happened two days ago, still no sale, next month will probably bring another 75k off

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1387676

And finally this is a classic case of what almost every lising looks like that has been on the market for a few months. At each point you claim the bottom and at each point you would have thrown money in the toilet. This is what the market is doing, nothing indicates that it is slowing down. Below the map is the listing price history, for this one I’ll post it bt on the others, just scroll down.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1181669

Oct 02, 2007 $580,000
Oct 17, 2007 $575,000
Oct 30, 2007 $565,000
Nov 05, 2007 $545,000
Nov 09, 2007 $535,000
Nov 19, 2007 $500,000
Dec 11, 2007 $450,000
Jan 02, 2008 $435,000
Jan 11, 2008 $420,000
Jan 16, 2008 $390,000
Jan 25, 2008 $380,000
Feb 25, 2008 $350,000

Fundamentally this is a 2k a month rental so the 125x multiplier is 250k, at that point I will buy it, the 150x is 300k, at that point I’ll think about it, but anyone can say “now is a great time to buy,” prove it to me.

[temeculaguy]

I didn’t mean to be overly sarcastic to you felix but you used a few too many realtor cliches and your posts still lack enough details for you to be validated and taken seriously. You don’t have to post the address or street name but tract or community name and ballpark price you paid will afford you some credibility, otherwise you are a realtor attempting to jumpstart the market, one blogger at a time. We piggs like case studies, math, etc. and it is very possible that you found a particular investment home that is valued correctly and somewhat insulated from further declines, we all will find ours at some point, different communities have been coming in line with fundamentals at different times, unfortunately the coastal properties have been the most stubborn, which is why you are being asked for specifics.

sdrealtor made a valid point about certain markets with limited offerings and custom homes in coastal areas do require the buyer think of the property availablity vs the timing. Tract homes and rentals do not fall into that category and are much more pure math equations.

The reason I was embittered by your plattitudes in essense saying it’s a great time to buy is that in certain Southern california markets, that statement is just not true, buying now is the worst thing you can do. Here’s where we will part ways, I’ll throw down some data and specific cases as to why waiting, each and every day, has rewards.

18 days on the market, reduced 17% in those 18 days, when first listed it was the cheapest house on the street, waiting saved the future buyer 50k

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1472071

This beauty came on the market today, 4000 sq ft, amost 100 a square, if you bought yesterday you would miss this record setter at more than 50% off it’s price in 2005 and now it is 47 cents on the dollar and the former model in one of the nicest subdivisions in my area, it’s presence just cost every house in the development 100k

It’s neighbor two doors away is a repo, wasn’t a model, is smaller and has a smaller lot. Despite the bank cutting 80k off it three weeks ago, they will need to chop another 100k to be in line with the one that just came up, why miss the fireworks and buy today or yesterday?

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1342782

Or this 20% (75k) drop that happened two days ago, still no sale, next month will probably bring another 75k off

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1387676

And finally this is a classic case of what almost every lising looks like that has been on the market for a few months. At each point you claim the bottom and at each point you would have thrown money in the toilet. This is what the market is doing, nothing indicates that it is slowing down. Below the map is the listing price history, for this one I’ll post it bt on the others, just scroll down.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1181669

Oct 02, 2007 $580,000
Oct 17, 2007 $575,000
Oct 30, 2007 $565,000
Nov 05, 2007 $545,000
Nov 09, 2007 $535,000
Nov 19, 2007 $500,000
Dec 11, 2007 $450,000
Jan 02, 2008 $435,000
Jan 11, 2008 $420,000
Jan 16, 2008 $390,000
Jan 25, 2008 $380,000
Feb 25, 2008 $350,000

Fundamentally this is a 2k a month rental so the 125x multiplier is 250k, at that point I will buy it, the 150x is 300k, at that point I’ll think about it, but anyone can say “now is a great time to buy,” prove it to me.

[felix]

It seems there are questions about my purchase. I thought short of telling you the exact location and price, I gave you enough information. At any rate that is all I’m giving you about my purchase.

If you don’t believe me that’s okay. I guess I understand.

It does appear though that our analysis is different since I was a cash buyer and many here are doing analysis based on borrowing.

As I said, I looked upon this as a very good opportunity. I am certain others in my position will also and will also step in when they perceive the time is right.

Could it get better?

Certainly, but as someone not there everyday and with cash I need to put my cash to use, getting over 4.5% return with long term growth potential seems pretty good. Of course, you do have to have a renter for this to work.

There appears to be some here with much RE experience and finanacial expertise. I was just asking what other investments would those here look at instead.

I can tell you a little about myself.

I’m already in stocks. I’m a reasonably disciplined daily trader in the stock market and have been since 1983. I was a partner in two successful small trading firms. I also manage my own retirement portfolio.

I have cash in a number of different financial instruments from CDs and MMs, to Bonds and Treasuries.

[Raybyrnes]

Felix

This might be more indicative of your situation

They’re not making it any more
Buying real estate is a sure thing. Not only does a real property purchase come with its own collateral, it will never lose its value.

“Real estate is a great game for pros and a not-so-great game for amateurs ” Uh, not exactly. While it’s true that real estate is generally a good investment, there’s no such animal as a sure thing. That’s where a lot of would-be investors got into trouble when the recent housing bubble burst.

“Residential real estate composite values are down about 8 percent and they’re not through yet,” says Ben Jacoby, Certified Financial Planner and senior adviser with Brinton Eaton Wealth Advisors.

Jacoby says there is a four-year cycle of excesses. “Every four years or so the people who loan money do something stupid,” he says.

In this case, investors made real estate loans to people who couldn’t afford them, including speculators. Investors purchased run-down property, renovating and reselling or flipping it, acquired property for rental units and made pre-construction purchases — all in hopes they’d have a big return for their investments.

Problem was, most of the property purchased was overpriced in the first place, and when values tumbled, speculators in general couldn’t get their money back, much less the mammoth profits they’d anticipated. But even though real property investments can’t really be taken to the bank, Jacoby says property has always been an investment target in good times or bad. Individuals like the idea of owning something they can actually put their hands on, but it’s a much bigger gamble, even when prices are rising, for the uninitiated.

“Real estate is a great game for pros and a not-so-great game for amateurs,” Jacoby says.

Historically, investing in real estate during bear markets can yield some real bargains for those who can afford it. Since lenders are understandably skittish when the economy is less stable, financing property becomes much more difficult. Would-be investors who hope to take advantage of falling home prices need to have enough cash to reassure the bank that its loan will be money well-spent.(Bankrate.com)

[felix]

Well written, Ray.

I agree that speculating or extending yourself probably won’t end well in this market.

I guess as a cash buyer I look at the situation differently. I’m not going to be forced to sell. I’ll probably own this home until I die. I feel reasonable certain it will be worth quite a bit more by then.

Anyway, I’m not quite sure where I would do better with this cash in a relatively passive investment. I already have enough non-margin exposure to the stock market. I also have plenty of money in a variety of other financial instruments.
To me the return is good and the long term prognosis is as well.

Since I’m not there everyday, looking at Re, I was not going to wait in hopes of getting a better deal when this one was good enough.

[Raybyrnes]

felix

When you did your analysis did you factor vacancy rates in when calculating you net ROR?

Do you foresee yourself living in the house at some point down the line or would it be something that your would leave to your children knowing that they would benefit from the adjusted cost basis?

I sort of think of real estate from a perpetuity standpoint.

[Raybyrnes]

felix

When you did your analysis did you factor vacancy rates in when calculating you net ROR?

Do you foresee yourself living in the house at some point down the line or would it be something that your would leave to your children knowing that they would benefit from the adjusted cost basis?

I sort of think of real estate from a perpetuity standpoint.

[Raybyrnes]

felix

When you did your analysis did you factor vacancy rates in when calculating you net ROR?

Do you foresee yourself living in the house at some point down the line or would it be something that your would leave to your children knowing that they would benefit from the adjusted cost basis?

I sort of think of real estate from a perpetuity standpoint.

[Raybyrnes]

felix

When you did your analysis did you factor vacancy rates in when calculating you net ROR?

Do you foresee yourself living in the house at some point down the line or would it be something that your would leave to your children knowing that they would benefit from the adjusted cost basis?

I sort of think of real estate from a perpetuity standpoint.

[Raybyrnes]

felix

When you did your analysis did you factor vacancy rates in when calculating you net ROR?

Do you foresee yourself living in the house at some point down the line or would it be something that your would leave to your children knowing that they would benefit from the adjusted cost basis?

I sort of think of real estate from a perpetuity standpoint.

[felix]

Well written, Ray.

I agree that speculating or extending yourself probably won’t end well in this market.

I guess as a cash buyer I look at the situation differently. I’m not going to be forced to sell. I’ll probably own this home until I die. I feel reasonable certain it will be worth quite a bit more by then.

Anyway, I’m not quite sure where I would do better with this cash in a relatively passive investment. I already have enough non-margin exposure to the stock market. I also have plenty of money in a variety of other financial instruments.
To me the return is good and the long term prognosis is as well.

Since I’m not there everyday, looking at Re, I was not going to wait in hopes of getting a better deal when this one was good enough.

[felix]

Well written, Ray.

I agree that speculating or extending yourself probably won’t end well in this market.

I guess as a cash buyer I look at the situation differently. I’m not going to be forced to sell. I’ll probably own this home until I die. I feel reasonable certain it will be worth quite a bit more by then.

Anyway, I’m not quite sure where I would do better with this cash in a relatively passive investment. I already have enough non-margin exposure to the stock market. I also have plenty of money in a variety of other financial instruments.
To me the return is good and the long term prognosis is as well.

Since I’m not there everyday, looking at Re, I was not going to wait in hopes of getting a better deal when this one was good enough.

[felix]

Well written, Ray.

I agree that speculating or extending yourself probably won’t end well in this market.

I guess as a cash buyer I look at the situation differently. I’m not going to be forced to sell. I’ll probably own this home until I die. I feel reasonable certain it will be worth quite a bit more by then.

Anyway, I’m not quite sure where I would do better with this cash in a relatively passive investment. I already have enough non-margin exposure to the stock market. I also have plenty of money in a variety of other financial instruments.
To me the return is good and the long term prognosis is as well.

Since I’m not there everyday, looking at Re, I was not going to wait in hopes of getting a better deal when this one was good enough.

[felix]

Well written, Ray.

I agree that speculating or extending yourself probably won’t end well in this market.

I guess as a cash buyer I look at the situation differently. I’m not going to be forced to sell. I’ll probably own this home until I die. I feel reasonable certain it will be worth quite a bit more by then.

Anyway, I’m not quite sure where I would do better with this cash in a relatively passive investment. I already have enough non-margin exposure to the stock market. I also have plenty of money in a variety of other financial instruments.
To me the return is good and the long term prognosis is as well.

Since I’m not there everyday, looking at Re, I was not going to wait in hopes of getting a better deal when this one was good enough.

[Raybyrnes]

Felix

This might be more indicative of your situation

They’re not making it any more
Buying real estate is a sure thing. Not only does a real property purchase come with its own collateral, it will never lose its value.

“Real estate is a great game for pros and a not-so-great game for amateurs ” Uh, not exactly. While it’s true that real estate is generally a good investment, there’s no such animal as a sure thing. That’s where a lot of would-be investors got into trouble when the recent housing bubble burst.

“Residential real estate composite values are down about 8 percent and they’re not through yet,” says Ben Jacoby, Certified Financial Planner and senior adviser with Brinton Eaton Wealth Advisors.

Jacoby says there is a four-year cycle of excesses. “Every four years or so the people who loan money do something stupid,” he says.

In this case, investors made real estate loans to people who couldn’t afford them, including speculators. Investors purchased run-down property, renovating and reselling or flipping it, acquired property for rental units and made pre-construction purchases — all in hopes they’d have a big return for their investments.

Problem was, most of the property purchased was overpriced in the first place, and when values tumbled, speculators in general couldn’t get their money back, much less the mammoth profits they’d anticipated. But even though real property investments can’t really be taken to the bank, Jacoby says property has always been an investment target in good times or bad. Individuals like the idea of owning something they can actually put their hands on, but it’s a much bigger gamble, even when prices are rising, for the uninitiated.

“Real estate is a great game for pros and a not-so-great game for amateurs,” Jacoby says.

Historically, investing in real estate during bear markets can yield some real bargains for those who can afford it. Since lenders are understandably skittish when the economy is less stable, financing property becomes much more difficult. Would-be investors who hope to take advantage of falling home prices need to have enough cash to reassure the bank that its loan will be money well-spent.(Bankrate.com)

[Raybyrnes]

Felix

This might be more indicative of your situation

They’re not making it any more
Buying real estate is a sure thing. Not only does a real property purchase come with its own collateral, it will never lose its value.

“Real estate is a great game for pros and a not-so-great game for amateurs ” Uh, not exactly. While it’s true that real estate is generally a good investment, there’s no such animal as a sure thing. That’s where a lot of would-be investors got into trouble when the recent housing bubble burst.

“Residential real estate composite values are down about 8 percent and they’re not through yet,” says Ben Jacoby, Certified Financial Planner and senior adviser with Brinton Eaton Wealth Advisors.

Jacoby says there is a four-year cycle of excesses. “Every four years or so the people who loan money do something stupid,” he says.

In this case, investors made real estate loans to people who couldn’t afford them, including speculators. Investors purchased run-down property, renovating and reselling or flipping it, acquired property for rental units and made pre-construction purchases — all in hopes they’d have a big return for their investments.

Problem was, most of the property purchased was overpriced in the first place, and when values tumbled, speculators in general couldn’t get their money back, much less the mammoth profits they’d anticipated. But even though real property investments can’t really be taken to the bank, Jacoby says property has always been an investment target in good times or bad. Individuals like the idea of owning something they can actually put their hands on, but it’s a much bigger gamble, even when prices are rising, for the uninitiated.

“Real estate is a great game for pros and a not-so-great game for amateurs,” Jacoby says.

Historically, investing in real estate during bear markets can yield some real bargains for those who can afford it. Since lenders are understandably skittish when the economy is less stable, financing property becomes much more difficult. Would-be investors who hope to take advantage of falling home prices need to have enough cash to reassure the bank that its loan will be money well-spent.(Bankrate.com)