W Beech Foreclosures

[citydweller]

I noticed on SDLookup that there are over 20 units in foreclosure or pre-foreclosure downtown at W Beech. Does anyone know if all of these are at Aqua Vista?

[SD Realtor]

I have a “possible” client who bought there in 04. I have spent some time today researching Beech street so funny you posted this. Actually this guy bought at 850 Beech. He interviewed me last summer and went with a Prudential agent instead. He said my outlook was to pessimistic and that the Prudential agent was sure that he would get pricing that was at least 10% higher then my estimate.

He called me up 3 days ago. His home did not sell and he ended up chasing the market. He came off the market in December and is thinking of relisting. He asked me to send him updated pricing estimates as he is considering relisting. I feel bad because my estimate is going to be such that he will lose close to 100k on his purchase in 04. That is if he is lucky.

[temeculaguy]

SD how much did he lose by wasting last year with the agent that told him what he wanted to hear? Let us know how much lower your listing reccomendation is this time around. I just want to know what the total cost is have wind blown up your skirt.

[SD Realtor]

When I met with the guy, and he is a very nice guy, I recommended that I didn’t believe he would get more then 550k based on the location of his unit and the market conditions. He bought it for 620k. At the time he had it rented out and had a negative cash flow of several hundred bucks. I noticed when he expired in December he had chased the market down to a price range where the low end of his price was 575k. Right now I am wrestling with the next recommendation. I believe it will be in the low 500 range at best. His unit faces the courtyard and it is only on the 5th floor. I am supposed to meet with him this weekend to go look at the unit but I haven’t received confirmation from him on it. I gave him my preliminary thoughts today and that probably turned him negative on me once more. I told him that if he wants I can price it higher, but that I wanted to give him my honest recommendation.

SD Realtor

[citydweller]

I’ll bet he could’ve gotten 550k if he had listed with you last year. Now he’ll be lucky to get 500k, not to mention the several months of negative cash flow.

Is it currently rented? If so, for how much? I’d be happy to rent it for $1000 🙂

[PerryChase]

SD Realtor, are you talking about Acqua Vista? That building will be hammered real hard in my view. The valet parking thing (can’t self-park because they don’t have enough spaces) will kill many deals. This is middle-of-the-road building, not a high-end luxury property. It was an after-thought apartment building that went condo.

[temeculaguy]

All markets are different but I have been following some specific properties and as I see them reduce their price I know it would have sold three or six months ago at that price. At their current price they will be lowering again in three months because the new listings are showing up at 5-10% under their reduced price, sometimes the new, lower priced ones are bigger or better and I wonder don’t they ask themselves “who will buy mine if they can get that one for less.” But it goes back to that irate fisbo from another thread, being delusional and trying to prop up the market by yourself will cost you in the end, get what you can while you can. I don’t know what it costs a realtor to list a property but some are so far out of whack with the competition I wonder why the agent even took it. SD that agent that listed that condo last year, what do you think that cost him in time and money since he saw 0 income from it. My observations are that there are still sales happening it is just with the more aggresively priced stuff. Maybe it a good thing overall, the shakeout of the unsophisticated subprime buyers will also shake out the unsophisticated newbie realtors.

I know that most lawyers who don’t feel they have a fair chance at winning a case won’t take it on a percentage basis and require hourly pay, thus bringing some complainants back to reality. From my personal experience I was trying to unload a house ten years ago or so in a down part of the last cycle, interviewed listing agents and chose one, don’t even remember why, probably a billboard I saw. After six months, few showings and no offers it delisted. A few months later a friend somewhat in the know hooked me up with a realtor who sold his house, he said I list at a certain price or he wont take it, I angrily agreed. He explained the market was different than when i bought and we should start out at reasonable price rather than price in the negotiations becuase ultimately I wanted what he wanted to list at. Two full price offers on the same day about three weeks later and six months later that price would not be seen again for years. Of course it tripled over the ten years, damn I should have kept it. Wait a minute, if i had ignored sound advice i would have profited from luck, no wonder i can’t figure this stuff out.

[SD Realtor]

Perry the development is (I think) called Cortez Hill… It is at 850 Cortez Hill.

Temecula you brought up a good point.

The realtor that sold your home sounds like a good one. It was simply not worth his time and he was being very honest with you. Good post. Yeah you would have 3xd profit if you kept it, but he did what you wanted him to do, he got your home sold.

SD Realtor

[Bugs]

The MLS reports 20 sales in this project during the last 12 months, 4 of which involved losses – even if limited to the cost of sales. There are currently 4 pending sales, of which 2 are foreclosure and short sales, respectively. There are 15 actives, which includes 1 foreclosure, 1 short sale and 3 other units that are underwater on their loans; this is in addition to the listings where it is apparent the sellers are trying to break even.

The must-sells have increased in percentage among the pendings and listings vs. the closed sales. They now comprise AT LEAST 30% of the listings and 50% of the pendings. It doesn’t take a genius to see which direction this is going.

[dny]

The majority of the floreclosure activity on W Beech is at the Aqua Vista complex, not Discovery at 850 W Beech. I rent in Aqua Vista and know first hand the issues facing this development.

AV is behind over $150k in HOA payments, and I would estimate that the breakout is about 25-30 individual units behind an average of 12 months. Many of those have never made a single payment. They are by no means in trouble as they have plenty in reserves, and there are 382 units in total so making up the difference wouldn’t be too great of a cost to the other tenants.

I also noticed that there are about 20 properties with tax liens, a good amount in preforeclosure and a couple being foreclosed upon. Also, there are about half of the penthouse units for sale that take up the top 2 floors. I feel confident in saying that every unit purchased here is underwater. Another bad sign for sellers is that the amount of sales at the building has dropped to 1 I think over the last 3 months. It is going to be ugly!!!

Sadly for some, it will get uglier as the 80 some odd unit Aperture should be done this year, and a much bigger apartment complex opens in the next year or so. They are within a few blocks of AV. If I could pick up a penthouse unit for 500k, maybe 600k, I’d probably go for it (unlikely at best, at least for the next year or two). As of now they are all listed for around 800k (for the 1249 sq ft units).

As all have echoed, DO NOT BUY DOWNTOWN!!! You would be insane. Rent downtown if you love it so much. I’m anticipating rents to fall now too, as I have seen many, many units linger even as they drop the prices. There will always be some schmuck that will overpay, but don’t let that discourage you from being rational.

[ocrenter]

guys, did a post on my blog regarding Aqua Vista.

14 units in total in various stages of foreclosure. one unit successfully sold as a REO at 15% loss.

but these are strange, if bugs/sdr/SD R can comment on them:

425 W Beech St Unit 436, San Diego, CA 92101
08/2006: REO. Not on MLS, no resale recorded.

425 W Beech St Unit 536, San Diego, CA 92101
09/2006: REO. Not on MLS, no resale recorded.

425 W Beech St Unit 1357, San Diego, CA 92101
07/2006: REO. Not on MLS, no resale recorded.

did the county just forget to record a sale on these three? I can’t imagine any other reason why the bank would not have these on the market other than these are already sold but not recorded.

[Bugs]

I don’t know the answer to this one. It could just be a mistake. Sometimes the data provider doesn’t catch changes in the public record, sometimes the County doesn’t make the changes in a timely manner.

Every once in a while the MLS shos a property as being sold but it doesn’t show up that way in the public records until a couple months later. Those late entries show the (earlier) correct date. That’s one reason appraisers use more than one data source. For instance, I use 3 different data providers for my public records data here in San Diego County, not counting the other sales and rental data sources I use.

[SD Realtor]

I will check a bit later on those OCR.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Checked on only one of them, unit 436. Realist has nothing recorded since 04. I checked the MLS active, pending, sold, expired, cancelled, withdrawns for Beech attached homes back to 1/1/06 and couldn’t find it either.

Not sure what to tell ya OCR.

SD Realtor

[kelly]

In Acqua Vista, Some Owners Under Water

You guys find good stuff. Hat-tips are due: in the story (above) and here.

Kelly
voiceofsandiego.org

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