UT Article on Housing /Population Migration

[JC]

Maybe I am biased, but I think their conclusion is a little flimsy? Thoughts?

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20080320-9999-1n20census.html

[peterb]

One thing I learned from doing a lot of statistical analysis many years ago…before accepting any data, first examine the methodology and criteria for how the data was pulled and compiled. Considering the source is also worthwhile, but doesnt address the facts.
The hard data they’re using is where people chose to call their address when they file tax returns and MediCal claims. You could probably shoot a lot of holes in these two pretty easily, but at least it’s a starting point. When they start to correlate between the data and various events, they’re talking about a causal relationship..i.e..people cant sell their houses for enough to make moving a worthy effort, therefore they dont move. Maybe this is accurate or maybe people cant get a job somewhere else either, or both. Or maybe people dont tell the truth about their address when they file?

[peterb]

One thing I learned from doing a lot of statistical analysis many years ago…before accepting any data, first examine the methodology and criteria for how the data was pulled and compiled. Considering the source is also worthwhile, but doesnt address the facts.
The hard data they’re using is where people chose to call their address when they file tax returns and MediCal claims. You could probably shoot a lot of holes in these two pretty easily, but at least it’s a starting point. When they start to correlate between the data and various events, they’re talking about a causal relationship..i.e..people cant sell their houses for enough to make moving a worthy effort, therefore they dont move. Maybe this is accurate or maybe people cant get a job somewhere else either, or both. Or maybe people dont tell the truth about their address when they file?

[peterb]

One thing I learned from doing a lot of statistical analysis many years ago…before accepting any data, first examine the methodology and criteria for how the data was pulled and compiled. Considering the source is also worthwhile, but doesnt address the facts.
The hard data they’re using is where people chose to call their address when they file tax returns and MediCal claims. You could probably shoot a lot of holes in these two pretty easily, but at least it’s a starting point. When they start to correlate between the data and various events, they’re talking about a causal relationship..i.e..people cant sell their houses for enough to make moving a worthy effort, therefore they dont move. Maybe this is accurate or maybe people cant get a job somewhere else either, or both. Or maybe people dont tell the truth about their address when they file?

[peterb]

One thing I learned from doing a lot of statistical analysis many years ago…before accepting any data, first examine the methodology and criteria for how the data was pulled and compiled. Considering the source is also worthwhile, but doesnt address the facts.
The hard data they’re using is where people chose to call their address when they file tax returns and MediCal claims. You could probably shoot a lot of holes in these two pretty easily, but at least it’s a starting point. When they start to correlate between the data and various events, they’re talking about a causal relationship..i.e..people cant sell their houses for enough to make moving a worthy effort, therefore they dont move. Maybe this is accurate or maybe people cant get a job somewhere else either, or both. Or maybe people dont tell the truth about their address when they file?

[peterb]

One thing I learned from doing a lot of statistical analysis many years ago…before accepting any data, first examine the methodology and criteria for how the data was pulled and compiled. Considering the source is also worthwhile, but doesnt address the facts.
The hard data they’re using is where people chose to call their address when they file tax returns and MediCal claims. You could probably shoot a lot of holes in these two pretty easily, but at least it’s a starting point. When they start to correlate between the data and various events, they’re talking about a causal relationship..i.e..people cant sell their houses for enough to make moving a worthy effort, therefore they dont move. Maybe this is accurate or maybe people cant get a job somewhere else either, or both. Or maybe people dont tell the truth about their address when they file?

[DWCAP]

This isnt your usual recession and movement of people isnt created equal.
First off, in a usual system companies fail, and that causes layoffs and that causes demand to fall and that causes more companies to fail etc. The economic system isnt hit until demand falls. This time around demand fell, but the companies were all ok (on the outside atleast) and that is why everyone wasnt forcasting a recession. But now companies are failing (ALA bear stearns) and jobs are disapearing (read the jobless claims out today, highest since 2004) and it is all kinda backwards. People still had jobs and incomes and savings and hope last year. As each of those are taken from them in a downturn they will leave to greener pastures elsewhere.
Second off since they related it to the housing market, I will too. Net immigration into SD is positive entirly due to foreign immigration or due to birthrate. Basically wealthier, older and traditionally whiter people are moving out and younger, poorer and traditionally non-white people are moving in. Where you use to have households of 2-3 people (dad, mom, and maybe a kid) you now have a household of 5 (Dad, mom and 3 kids). So population may be going up, but demand for housing isnt necessary. For the next 15-20 years you could have 40% more population with the same demand for housing. This will hit the middle income areas the worst, (Chula, Poway, MM, Nat.City) as their housing stock is smaller, older and traditional middle income buyers are the ones not hanging around.
Maybe I am wrong, but until prices hit a point that the newer, less well off population can afford, demand for these areas will be worse. The good news is that in 20 years there will be alot more demand for housing again. All of this ignores the macroeconomic system ofcourse (if jobs fall, will people still immigrate or have as many kids?) but we are talking population in this thread, not interest rates.

[patientlywaiting]

If I recall the 1990s, as house prices continued to drop into the recession, people moved out even more. It was very pronounced in Orange County where the small manufacturers got decimated.

I anticipate a repeat of that type of outmigration.

[EconProf]

BobS
I have been investing in Yuma for the past several years in the expectation that CA people and businesses will flee the high tax, high housing cost giant to the west. Have bought housing, industrial land, residential subdivision TD’s.
The influx from CA has not been as pronounced as I had expected, but have still done well. Perhaps the current recession (in all but name), plus the likely hike in CA taxes will again push California businesses and people to leave.

[Ex-SD]

I agree with DWCAP.

[Ex-SD]

I agree with DWCAP.

[Ex-SD]

I agree with DWCAP.

[Ex-SD]

I agree with DWCAP.

[Ex-SD]

I agree with DWCAP.

[EconProf]

BobS
I have been investing in Yuma for the past several years in the expectation that CA people and businesses will flee the high tax, high housing cost giant to the west. Have bought housing, industrial land, residential subdivision TD’s.
The influx from CA has not been as pronounced as I had expected, but have still done well. Perhaps the current recession (in all but name), plus the likely hike in CA taxes will again push California businesses and people to leave.

[EconProf]

BobS
I have been investing in Yuma for the past several years in the expectation that CA people and businesses will flee the high tax, high housing cost giant to the west. Have bought housing, industrial land, residential subdivision TD’s.
The influx from CA has not been as pronounced as I had expected, but have still done well. Perhaps the current recession (in all but name), plus the likely hike in CA taxes will again push California businesses and people to leave.

[EconProf]

BobS
I have been investing in Yuma for the past several years in the expectation that CA people and businesses will flee the high tax, high housing cost giant to the west. Have bought housing, industrial land, residential subdivision TD’s.
The influx from CA has not been as pronounced as I had expected, but have still done well. Perhaps the current recession (in all but name), plus the likely hike in CA taxes will again push California businesses and people to leave.

[EconProf]

BobS
I have been investing in Yuma for the past several years in the expectation that CA people and businesses will flee the high tax, high housing cost giant to the west. Have bought housing, industrial land, residential subdivision TD’s.
The influx from CA has not been as pronounced as I had expected, but have still done well. Perhaps the current recession (in all but name), plus the likely hike in CA taxes will again push California businesses and people to leave.

[patientlywaiting]

If I recall the 1990s, as house prices continued to drop into the recession, people moved out even more. It was very pronounced in Orange County where the small manufacturers got decimated.

I anticipate a repeat of that type of outmigration.

[patientlywaiting]

If I recall the 1990s, as house prices continued to drop into the recession, people moved out even more. It was very pronounced in Orange County where the small manufacturers got decimated.

I anticipate a repeat of that type of outmigration.

[patientlywaiting]

If I recall the 1990s, as house prices continued to drop into the recession, people moved out even more. It was very pronounced in Orange County where the small manufacturers got decimated.

I anticipate a repeat of that type of outmigration.

[patientlywaiting]

If I recall the 1990s, as house prices continued to drop into the recession, people moved out even more. It was very pronounced in Orange County where the small manufacturers got decimated.

I anticipate a repeat of that type of outmigration.

[DWCAP]

This isnt your usual recession and movement of people isnt created equal.
First off, in a usual system companies fail, and that causes layoffs and that causes demand to fall and that causes more companies to fail etc. The economic system isnt hit until demand falls. This time around demand fell, but the companies were all ok (on the outside atleast) and that is why everyone wasnt forcasting a recession. But now companies are failing (ALA bear stearns) and jobs are disapearing (read the jobless claims out today, highest since 2004) and it is all kinda backwards. People still had jobs and incomes and savings and hope last year. As each of those are taken from them in a downturn they will leave to greener pastures elsewhere.
Second off since they related it to the housing market, I will too. Net immigration into SD is positive entirly due to foreign immigration or due to birthrate. Basically wealthier, older and traditionally whiter people are moving out and younger, poorer and traditionally non-white people are moving in. Where you use to have households of 2-3 people (dad, mom, and maybe a kid) you now have a household of 5 (Dad, mom and 3 kids). So population may be going up, but demand for housing isnt necessary. For the next 15-20 years you could have 40% more population with the same demand for housing. This will hit the middle income areas the worst, (Chula, Poway, MM, Nat.City) as their housing stock is smaller, older and traditional middle income buyers are the ones not hanging around.
Maybe I am wrong, but until prices hit a point that the newer, less well off population can afford, demand for these areas will be worse. The good news is that in 20 years there will be alot more demand for housing again. All of this ignores the macroeconomic system ofcourse (if jobs fall, will people still immigrate or have as many kids?) but we are talking population in this thread, not interest rates.

[DWCAP]

This isnt your usual recession and movement of people isnt created equal.
First off, in a usual system companies fail, and that causes layoffs and that causes demand to fall and that causes more companies to fail etc. The economic system isnt hit until demand falls. This time around demand fell, but the companies were all ok (on the outside atleast) and that is why everyone wasnt forcasting a recession. But now companies are failing (ALA bear stearns) and jobs are disapearing (read the jobless claims out today, highest since 2004) and it is all kinda backwards. People still had jobs and incomes and savings and hope last year. As each of those are taken from them in a downturn they will leave to greener pastures elsewhere.
Second off since they related it to the housing market, I will too. Net immigration into SD is positive entirly due to foreign immigration or due to birthrate. Basically wealthier, older and traditionally whiter people are moving out and younger, poorer and traditionally non-white people are moving in. Where you use to have households of 2-3 people (dad, mom, and maybe a kid) you now have a household of 5 (Dad, mom and 3 kids). So population may be going up, but demand for housing isnt necessary. For the next 15-20 years you could have 40% more population with the same demand for housing. This will hit the middle income areas the worst, (Chula, Poway, MM, Nat.City) as their housing stock is smaller, older and traditional middle income buyers are the ones not hanging around.
Maybe I am wrong, but until prices hit a point that the newer, less well off population can afford, demand for these areas will be worse. The good news is that in 20 years there will be alot more demand for housing again. All of this ignores the macroeconomic system ofcourse (if jobs fall, will people still immigrate or have as many kids?) but we are talking population in this thread, not interest rates.

[DWCAP]

This isnt your usual recession and movement of people isnt created equal.
First off, in a usual system companies fail, and that causes layoffs and that causes demand to fall and that causes more companies to fail etc. The economic system isnt hit until demand falls. This time around demand fell, but the companies were all ok (on the outside atleast) and that is why everyone wasnt forcasting a recession. But now companies are failing (ALA bear stearns) and jobs are disapearing (read the jobless claims out today, highest since 2004) and it is all kinda backwards. People still had jobs and incomes and savings and hope last year. As each of those are taken from them in a downturn they will leave to greener pastures elsewhere.
Second off since they related it to the housing market, I will too. Net immigration into SD is positive entirly due to foreign immigration or due to birthrate. Basically wealthier, older and traditionally whiter people are moving out and younger, poorer and traditionally non-white people are moving in. Where you use to have households of 2-3 people (dad, mom, and maybe a kid) you now have a household of 5 (Dad, mom and 3 kids). So population may be going up, but demand for housing isnt necessary. For the next 15-20 years you could have 40% more population with the same demand for housing. This will hit the middle income areas the worst, (Chula, Poway, MM, Nat.City) as their housing stock is smaller, older and traditional middle income buyers are the ones not hanging around.
Maybe I am wrong, but until prices hit a point that the newer, less well off population can afford, demand for these areas will be worse. The good news is that in 20 years there will be alot more demand for housing again. All of this ignores the macroeconomic system ofcourse (if jobs fall, will people still immigrate or have as many kids?) but we are talking population in this thread, not interest rates.

[DWCAP]

This isnt your usual recession and movement of people isnt created equal.
First off, in a usual system companies fail, and that causes layoffs and that causes demand to fall and that causes more companies to fail etc. The economic system isnt hit until demand falls. This time around demand fell, but the companies were all ok (on the outside atleast) and that is why everyone wasnt forcasting a recession. But now companies are failing (ALA bear stearns) and jobs are disapearing (read the jobless claims out today, highest since 2004) and it is all kinda backwards. People still had jobs and incomes and savings and hope last year. As each of those are taken from them in a downturn they will leave to greener pastures elsewhere.
Second off since they related it to the housing market, I will too. Net immigration into SD is positive entirly due to foreign immigration or due to birthrate. Basically wealthier, older and traditionally whiter people are moving out and younger, poorer and traditionally non-white people are moving in. Where you use to have households of 2-3 people (dad, mom, and maybe a kid) you now have a household of 5 (Dad, mom and 3 kids). So population may be going up, but demand for housing isnt necessary. For the next 15-20 years you could have 40% more population with the same demand for housing. This will hit the middle income areas the worst, (Chula, Poway, MM, Nat.City) as their housing stock is smaller, older and traditional middle income buyers are the ones not hanging around.
Maybe I am wrong, but until prices hit a point that the newer, less well off population can afford, demand for these areas will be worse. The good news is that in 20 years there will be alot more demand for housing again. All of this ignores the macroeconomic system ofcourse (if jobs fall, will people still immigrate or have as many kids?) but we are talking population in this thread, not interest rates.

[DWCAP]

Thanks EX-SD, i appreciate it.

[DWCAP]

Thanks EX-SD, i appreciate it.

[DWCAP]

Thanks EX-SD, i appreciate it.

[DWCAP]

Thanks EX-SD, i appreciate it.

[DWCAP]

Thanks EX-SD, i appreciate it.

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