Urban Metro Suburban monitor

[sdrealtor]

UPDATE: While running numbers on 10/13/20 it became obvious this was two very different markets and should be tracked differently. Im pulling out 92103 and sticking with 92104 and 92116. Trying tog et something more representative of whats actually going on down there. Left orginal post below for integrity of thread

Not sure this name will make sense but these higher end, close in zips just east of Downtown. I included 92103 (Mission Hills and Hillcrest), 92104 (North Park) and 92116 (Normal Heights). University Heights kinda cross zips (92103 and 92116).

I left out 92102 (South Park, Golden Hill etc) and 92105 (City Heights etc) as they just felt more diverse and less gentrified. Both have some really nice sections and some that have a long way to go. Apologies if anyone is interested in those but I think they would be better carved out and viewed separately. Both zips span a wider demographic range than the other 3 zips.

Again only looking at detached and excluding new construction

As an aside while Im quite familiar with these areas I have never tracked them and have no idea where this will go. I guess that makes it even more interesting for me.

[gzz]

Are you counting the $100 price reductions that seem pretty common?

[sdrealtor]

Any reduction but those aren’t that common. Usually some joker doing it to get on the Hot Sheet many agents use daily to follow their primary markets. As long as I stay consistent in approach the trend should be meaningful

[Rich Toscano]

I like having these as two forum threads that you keep updating… easier to follow that way. Thanks for your efforts!

(Hope to update my #s this weekend)

[sdrealtor]

My pleasure and open to others. I’m happy to see the conversing here return to real estate and investing. Hoping to encourage that to continue

[gzz]

I’d say the past few months half the price reductions I’ve seen have been these “fake ones.” I’m not too concerned, probably at some point MLS software will be updated to stop promoting price reductions of less than 0.1%.

There’s also the infamous “raise price by $5,000, then weekly $1000 price cuts, then re-raise $5,000.”

With inventory so low, seems unnecessary to do anything to stand out from the crowd.

[sdrealtor]

Late Summer and the market should be snoozing here too though Id expect less so than suburbia.

New listings 19

New Pendings 23

Thats -4 a sign that this is also a strong market but too soon to say for me.

Closed sales at 14

Price reductions at 6. Sellers got the hot market memo here also.

[sdrealtor]

Back to school season. Wonder what the impact if any will be down here?

New listings 18

New Pendings 14

Thats +4 so added some inventory. Hope to see a trend emerge over time.

Closed sales at 17

Price reductions at 8.

Total houses for sale 82.

That seems more reasonable and I think I made a mistake running the count last week. I took that erroneus data off the prior update

Here;s some additional observations. Dettached market seems to start around 700K currently. Most under that is a tear down or needs major reno. Saw a house with a tenant thats been there for 40 years. Thats gotta be some kind of record. About 70% of inventory is over $1M. Not much in the way of affordable detached inventory here.

[sdrealtor]

Kids are back to school.

New listings 15

New Pendings 20

Thats -5 so lost some inventory.

Closed sales at 10

Price reductions at 5.

Total houses for sale 78.

Not much inventory. Very little affordable

[sdrealtor]

Heading into Labor Day!

New listings 18

New Pendings 26

Thats -8 so lost some more inventory.

Closed sales at 14 likely boosted by end of month

Price reductions at 10.

Total houses for sale 72.

Even less inventory. Very little affordable

[gzz]

92107 (Ocean Beach/Sunset Cliffs/Point Loma Heights):

36 sales in August, versus inventory of 27. So 0.75 month inventory.

Six of the 22 SFH sales were for 1.5M+, I’ve never seen the high end move so quickly.

Any parts of San Diego that right now with 1.0+ month inventory? Probably just places with a lot of new construction: so downtown, new suburbs, and zips with recently completed large infill projects.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 13 lowest since Ive been tracking

New Pendings 18 nice drop from last week

Thats -5 so lost some more inventory.

Closed sales at 17 highest since I started tracking.

Price reductions at 10.

Total houses for sale 68.

Even less inventory. Very little affordable. Market starts around $650K for a 2/1 around 600 sq ft. Anything less is likely a teardown. Median is $1.25M so very little low end inventory here either

[gzz]

Looking at Rich’s charts, last time months of inventory was under 2 for a while was 2013, prices flew almost straight up, +21% in Dec 2013 over Dec 2012.

Such a sudden increase in prices did bring out some (poorly timed!) sellers.

Now we have even lower rates, even lower inventory, only thing holding us back are the huge downpayments needed and conforming loan limits not rising as fast as prices.

[sdrealtor]

We already have big price increases. Remember our earlier in the year predictions? I think you were 3% and I was 5 to 10%. Well the 5% is already well in the rear view mirror

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=gzz]
Now we have even lower rates, even lower inventory, [/quote]

These aren’t two independent things… the low rates are causing the low inventory.

But yeah as sdr says, prices are rising fast… pr/sqft for single family homes was up 5% last month. (charts soon). That’s a noisy figure but 5% is really high.

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