Off topic “coronavirus”

[sdduuuude]

Popped in to see what the Piggs were saying about the virus.

Glad to see Hobie is offering up the “closing schools seems like overkill” opinion. I tend to lean that way as well. I feel like the media has learned all too well that their livelihood ebbs and flows with panic and I feel they do their very best to feed it at every chance they get – most obviously with Trump, and now with the COVID-19.

Also glad to see that there is some reasonable discussion going on here. Hoping we can keep the politics out of it. I am not sure how anyone can say that the government is late in dealing with this since 60 people have died in two weeks while 100 die every day in automobile accidents. Not 1 person in San Diego has died and all the schools are closed.

With that said, some of the numbers appear significant. The growth in the US is pretty clearly exponential so nipping that early makes sense.

I wonder about the actual death rate vs. the measured death rate. I know a friend who took his daughter to ER last night because she showed 3 symptoms of the virus: very tired, fever, soreness in her chest when breathing. No cough. The hospital basically told her she had the flu, but did not test for the flu or for COVID-19. They were basically told that if your fever is really high and you are having real difficulty breathing and really worried about not getting enough air, then they would pay attention and maybe test you. Or if you recently traveled to infected areas. They also said they have been very busy with flu patients. I’m not sure how they know it isn’t a mild case of COVID-19.

I also read an article today that said there are 1200 COVID-19 test kits for all of San Diego.

Put that number together with the story from the ER and it sounds like the only people they test are the ones that are dying, which makes the measured death rate among “confirmed” cases massive. Also, the number of cases may be astronomically higher than those reported since they only test people who are very sick or coming from infected areas. I mean – how could San Diego possibly report more than 1200 cases if that is all the test kits they have.

The measured death rate is 3% or so. CDC or WHO estimated the actual rate under 1%. Could be much, much lower, in reality.

I put those together and it sounds like just another flu to me.

Lastly, I wonder if the overall effect of just letting the thing run its course would, in the end, be less disruptive than trying to stop it and having it not really work and everyone gets it anyway.

The article below suggested that 160,000 ventilators would not be enough. Well, if 1% die and double that amount need ventilators, then we could support over 8,000,000 simultaneous cases. Seems like not a problem, even if unchecked.

—

I also wanted to say that it is really annoying when you all change names. It degrades the site alot, makes it impossible to follow and I just skip all the posts because I don’t know who the hell is saying what. And you are just bitching at each other mindlessly anyway so I don’t feel like I am missing much by skipping through it.

[sdduuuude]

Have you heard of the Quarantini ?

It is just like a regular martini but you drink it alone in your house.

I guess for me, it is just a regular martini, then.

[outtamojo]

Oh my has anyone else seen the pictures of people packed like sardines at o hare and other airports?

[Hobie]

Mammoth Mountain just closed. I was expecting to see ads from local Big Bear ski resorts pitching now. With schools closing and current storms– a late business bonanza! We’ll see…

Another thing the press is capitalizing on is the image of coronavirus itself. The scanning electron mictrosope photography of a very sinister looking ball with red satellites is a menacing image. Ever see any photos of other viruses in the news. Not me. Other than a slide with cells

Glad to see the surgeon general finally has surfaced. He said,”..No more bickering, no more partisanship, no more criticism or finger pointing,..”

https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4861314/user-clip-dr-jerome-adams-surgeon-general-full-remarks-march-14-2020

It is interesting and telling that the press has turned to slamming him now.

[Hobie]

CDC is recommending schools stay closed for 14 days. This is the approx incubation time. But with last weeks sudden rise in infections I’m guessing they will restart the 14 day clock to next week. So 3 weeks from next Mon 3/16/20.

Some school districts are already doing this be moving spring break up to give them 3 weeks of closure.

I’ll bet schools will resume 4/6.. ..unless we are all dropping like flies.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/schools-faq.html

https://www.jwatch.org/na51083/2020/03/13/covid-19-incubation-period-update

[Hobie]

[quote=sdduuuude]Have you heard of the Quarantini ?
[/quote]

We’ll probably see a spike in births 9mo from now too. ha

[Coronita]

[quote=Hobie]CDC is recommending schools stay closed for 14 days. This is the approx incubation time. But with last weeks sudden rise in infections I’m guessing they will restart the 14 day clock to next week. So 3 weeks from next Mon 3/16/20.

Some school districts are already doing this be moving spring break up to give them 3 weeks of closure.

I’ll bet schools will resume 4/6.. ..unless we are all dropping like flies.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/schools-faq.html

https://www.jwatch.org/na51083/2020/03/13/covid-19-incubation-period-update%5B/quote%5D

Most school districts in SD aren’t reopening until 3/27 at the earliest.

San Diego and San Dieguito Unified all set the back to school day at 3/27, at least. This is one week before Spring break. They said they can update this to move back more.

Poway Unified isn’t retuning back until April.

Ironically during this time, a lot of college students and substitute teachers have been advertising “hi, I’m XYZ, and if you need help with daycare, I can watch your children for you .. .” And then proceed to say they can take up to 5-10 kids at their house.

I thought the entire point of social distancing is to minimize contact from people we don’t know.

[svelte]

[quote=Coronita]
Ironically during this time, a lot of college students and substitute teachers have been advertising “hi, I’m XYZ, and if you need help with daycare, I can watch your children for you .. .” And then proceed to say they can take up to 5-10 kids at their house.
[/quote]

Some of my friends on FB have been posting that!

I bet they don’t get many if any takers.

One of them posted yesterday “I’m sick of hearing about coronavirus! Stop posting about it!” yet she’s the one who posted like 50 times on the topic over the last three days. Sheesh.

[svelte]

[quote=Hobie][quote=sdduuuude]Have you heard of the Quarantini ?
[/quote]

We’ll probably see a spike in births 9mo from now too. ha[/quote]

They’ll be Corona babies!

Maybe in more ways that one…

[ltsddd]

[quote=sdduuuude]I am not sure how anyone can say that the government is late in dealing with this
[/quote]

You answered it yourself here.
[quote=sdduuuude]I also read an article today that said there are 1200 COVID-19 test kits for all of San Diego.
[/quote]

We were lucky this thing started half the world away. China’s locking down wuhan and nearby provinces also helped slowing down the spread to other areas (including the US). Why are we still woefully lack of the test kits 3 months after the outbreak in China?

[quote=sdduuuude]
The measured death rate is 3% or so. CDC or WHO estimated the actual rate under 1%. Could be much, much lower, in reality.

I put those together and it sounds like just another flu to me.
[/quote]

1% is widely cited as the death rate for the corona virus vs .1% for the flu. The contagiousness of the coronavirus is 2-3 vs 1.3 for the flu. Taking those together we’re looking at, using 2018’s # for flu cases:

flu:45 million sick, 61K deaths

corona: 70-100 million sick, 700K – 1 million deaths

Those are staggering numbers.

[svelte]

[quote=sdduuuude]Have you heard of the Quarantini ?
.[/quote]

We went to see a band last night, our last outing for the foreseeable future.

They introduced themselves as the “COVID-19s” and said the bartender was serving quarantinis.

Everyone laughed, but there were only about 10 customers watching the band. The staff was wiping down everything as soon as anyone moved to a different spot. The whole place smelled like bleach. On a typical night, there would be 75-100 people in that room. People are starting to self isolate. If you’re not a grocery store, pharmacy or gas station you might as well close for the next few weeks.

[an]

[quote=Coronita][quote=Hobie]CDC is recommending schools stay closed for 14 days. This is the approx incubation time. But with last weeks sudden rise in infections I’m guessing they will restart the 14 day clock to next week. So 3 weeks from next Mon 3/16/20.

Some school districts are already doing this be moving spring break up to give them 3 weeks of closure.

I’ll bet schools will resume 4/6.. ..unless we are all dropping like flies.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/schools-faq.html

https://www.jwatch.org/na51083/2020/03/13/covid-19-incubation-period-update%5B/quote%5D

Most school districts in SD aren’t reopening until 3/27 at the earliest.

San Diego and San Dieguito Unified all set the back to school day at 3/27, at least. This is one week before Spring break. They said they can update this to move back more.

Poway Unified isn’t retuning back until April.

Ironically during this time, a lot of college students and substitute teachers have been advertising “hi, I’m XYZ, and if you need help with daycare, I can watch your children for you .. .” And then proceed to say they can take up to 5-10 kids at their house.

I thought the entire point of social distancing is to minimize contact from people we don’t know.[/quote]SDUSD is back on 4/6.

[ltsddd]

.

[an]

[quote=ltsddd][quote=ltsddd][quote=sdduuuude]I am not sure how anyone can say that the government is late in dealing with this
[/quote]

You answered it yourself here.
[quote=sdduuuude]I also read an article today that said there are 1200 COVID-19 test kits for all of San Diego.
[/quote]

We were lucky this thing started half the world away. China’s locking down wuhan and nearby provinces also helped slowing down the spread to other areas (including the US). Why are we still woefully lack of the test kits 3 months after the outbreak in China?

And perhaps we have such a low rate for the coronavirus has a lot to do with that’s because we’re not doing the tests?

[quote=sdduuuude]
The measured death rate is 3% or so. CDC or WHO estimated the actual rate under 1%. Could be much, much lower, in reality.

I put those together and it sounds like just another flu to me.
[/quote]

1% is widely cited as the death rate for the corona virus vs .1% for the flu. The contagiousness of the coronavirus is 2-3 vs 1.3 for the flu. Taking those together we’re looking at, using 2018’s # for flu cases in the U.S.:

flu:45 million sick, 61K deaths

corona (projected): 70-100 million sick, 700K – 1 million deaths

Those are staggering numbers.[/quote][/quote]Darwin suck. Spd must be loving this. This is population reduction he has been wishing for. It’s also helping with climate change as well. Smog is decreasing in Italy and China.

[Hobie]

Thanks for the doom and gloom, double “d”

[Author]

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